The Retail Rundown: Retail Posts Late-Year Gains, but Food Inflation Heats Up

Early 2026 opens with a mixed picture for the food and broader retail sectors.

Retail sales closed out 2025 with solid momentum, as CNBC/NRF data showed holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 rising 4.1% from the year prior. Food and beverage stores also ended the year strong, posting a 0.33% month-over-month gain on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 2.85% increase from a year earlier.

That strength now faces challenges as the industry moves into its usual post-holiday slowdown, amplified by...

FMI Celebrates Congressional Sponsors for Reintroducing Credit Card Competition Act

Today [January 13, 2026], FMI – The Food Industry Association offered its endorsement of the reintroduced bipartisan, bicameral Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) and expressed gratitude for the leadership of bill sponsors Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Representatives Lance Gooden (R-TX) and Zoe Lofgren (D-CA). The legislation requires the nation’s largest banks to enable a second network on a credit card on which to route transactions, similar to the existing federal law for two debit networks to be enabled on a debit card. 

“FMI enthusiastically endorses the reintroduction of the Credit Card...

NRF Renews Call to Pass Swipe Fee Legislation

The following statement may be attributed to National Retail Federation following the reintroduction of the Credit Card Competition Act.

“NRF commends Senators Roger Marshall, R-Kan., and Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Representatives Lance Gooden, R-Texas, and Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., for their steadfast leadership in challenging the credit card swipe fee duopoly. The Credit Card Competition Act is essential to leveling the playing field for millions of American businesses that currently lack any control over the non-negotiable fees tied to every card transaction.

“By fostering much-needed competition, this bipartisan legislation will provide direct relief to both retailers and consumers...

FMI Statement on December CPI Food Price Numbers

Today [January 13, 2026], FMI – The Food Industry Association commented on the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which show a 0.7% rise in food-at-home prices for December and a 2.4% increase over the last 12 months. FMI Vice President of Tax, Trade, Sustainability and Policy Development Andy Harig offered the following statement.  

“Today’s CPI numbers reflect the ongoing challenge of bringing food inflation under control. Overall inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and food prices also disappointingly reflected...

Kroger Reveals Food Trend Predictions of 2026

The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) today announced its top six food trends for 2026, predicting customer behaviors and anticipated popular products for the new year.

Developed by Kroger's industry-leading team of food experts, the trend predictions offer a complete forecast of what customers will be craving in 2026.

"The way our customers eat will be more dynamic than ever this year as they look to elevate everyday meals, snacks and treats with bold flavors, functional ingredients and culinary creativity, delivering a premium experience for less," said Ann Reed, Group Vice President, Our Brands for Kroger. "Whether it's a protein and fiber...

Revolutionizing Value Dining with Taco Bell's New Luxe Value Menu

Taco Bell is set to launch its new Luxe Value Menu on January 22, offering a new perspective on value for the conscious consumer.

Renowned for its value-focused options like the iconic Cravings Value Menu and the popular Luxe Boxes, Taco Bell continues to lead the industry in value offerings.

"At Taco Bell, value has always been about delivering more — more flavor, more abundance, more options, more excitement," said Luis Restrepo, Chief Marketing Officer, North America, at Taco Bell.

The Luxe Value Menu boasts a variety of items priced at $3 or less, introducing five innovative new selections alongside five fan favorites from the Cravings Value Menu.

Aldi Marks 50 Years in the US With Expansion, Investment, and Digital Upgrades

Marking its 50th year in the US, Aldi is pursuing nationwide expansion and online shopping improvements to build on its success.

After adding more than 17 million customers in 2025, the company is expanding its footprint, with plans to open 180 new stores across 31 US states in 2026. As budget-conscious shopping persists, Aldi’s strong private-label offering continues to anchor its value proposition amid ongoing cost pressures.

"One in three US households shopped at ALDI this...

From Restructuring to Revival, TGI Fridays’ Global Growth Strategy

On to brighter days

Home to the infamous Jack Daniel’s–infused whiskey sauce, TGI Fridays has navigated a challenging stretch over the past couple of years, marked by the retirement and return of CEO Ray Blanchette, store closures, and a Chapter 11 filing at the end of 2024.

However, a turnaround has taken shape, as menu innovation and global expansion gained momentum in 2025 and continue to carry the brand forward into 2026.

On November 2, 2024, TGI Fridays announced it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy , seeking...

USDA Names New Leadership of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced important leadership changes within the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Dr. Michael Watson, APHIS Administrator, will retire at the end of January after decades of distinguished service, and Dr. Rosemary Sifford, Deputy Administrator for Veterinary Services and U.S. Chief Veterinary Officer, has recently retired from federal service after a similarly notable career. Beginning on February 1, 2026, Ms. Kelly Moore will serve as Acting Administrator and effective immediately, Dr. Alan...

UNFI Identifies Key Trends Shaping Fresh Departments for Retailers in 2026

While shoppers are spending more deliberately, the fresh departments are still earning their attention. Categories including produce, floral, bakery, deli, specialty cheese, meat, and seafood are outperforming the rest of the store, with fresh product sales up 3.7% year over year*.

That performance reflects shifting shopper expectations: better taste, stronger nutrition, added convenience, and more transparency from the products they buy.

For retailers, success in fresh now depends on understanding these drivers and partnering with experts who can translate trends into execution on the sales floor.

Ron Selders, UNFI’s President...

Jersey Mike's Launches New Chapter of Growth with International Expansion into the UK and Ireland

Jersey Mike's Subs, a leading franchisor of over 3,200 fast-casual sandwich shops known for its fresh sliced and fresh grilled subs, today announced it has signed a franchise agreement with JM Submarines UK LTD, led by Jersey Mike's founder and Chairman of the Board, Peter Cancro, to open 400 stores in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Cancro founded Jersey Mike's more than 50 years ago and remains a significant shareholder following the Company's sale to Blackstone last year...

ANALYSIS: Japan’s Nov 2025 Beef Imports Contract from Six-Month Highs as Demand Cools

Japan’s beef imports in November 2025 slumped from its six-month high at 38,732 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data released by Japan’s Trade Statistics.

Inbound volumes plunged a hefty 21.3% month-on-month (MOM) (-10,453 mt) across major suppliers.

Despite weak domestic consumption, imports by the world’s third-largest beef buyer rose 11.9% year-on-year (YOY), an increase of 4,113 mt, reflecting gains from a lower base earlier in the year.

Rising global beef prices and higher yen-denominated costs from a...

ANALYSIS: The Aftermath of a Year with Record Low Select Grading

Select grading has been declining since around August, with two record lows set in December. This decline is partly due to reduced feeder cattle imports from Mexico. Other contributing factors include improving domestic cattle genetics and higher cattle prices, which are prompting some producers to hold onto cattle longer to increase their weights. This practice results in more cattle grading Prime and Choice.

This shift in grading has significantly affected Select material availability, as evidenced by the Select loin cutout price. Comparing...

ANALYSIS: US Cage-Free Prices Continue to Slide, Touching All-Time Low 

The US cage-free egg market continues to weaken, with the EBP rest-of-market quote dipping to $0.89/dozen this week—an all-time low since Expana began publishing daily assessments in January 2024. While demand dynamics have certainly contributed to the decline, the most significant driver has been the sharp rebound in production. 

Following repopulation efforts after the worst of this year’s HPAI impact, the cage-free layer flock has climbed to approximately 140.4 million birds, according to the...

Top 10 Headlines on Expana in 2025—and What Could Shape the Next Year in Food and Ag

2025 was a big year for news in the food and agriculture industry. Headlines ranging from livestock diseases and sweeping policy changes to rising geopolitical tensions, shifting tariffs, weather events, and evolving consumer trends influenced commercial strategies, supply chains, and global market dynamics... 

ANALYSIS: Historically Heavy Chicken, Historically Strong Demand

Average live weights in the US broiler industry remained at historically high levels for much of 2025, yet the market response diverged meaningfully from prior high-weight cycles. Weekly USDA federally inspected young chicken weights spent most of the year above the five-year average near 6.4 pounds, with extended stretches from late spring through early fall pressing toward the upper end of the historical range. In a more typical environment, that level of tonnage would have created sustained downward pricing pressure. Instead, the market largely absorbed the additional production.

ANALYSIS: Brazil's December Beef Exports Fell 4.2% MOM, 2025 Total Volume Up 21.4% to 3.09m MT

According to the latest data from Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, beef exports reached 304,977 mt in December 2025, declining 4.2% from November. Despite the monthly pullback, volumes were 50.6% higher than last year. On a cumulative basis, exports totaled 3,090,469 mt in 2025, representing a 21.4% growth compared to 2024.

China remained Brazil’s largest destination by far, even though December volumes eased 15.3% month-over-month (MOM) to...

ANALYSIS: Gap Between US Imported Beef 90s and Fresh Domestic 90s Shrink YOY in 2025

In 2025, the average price premium of US fresh 90s over imported 90s averaged $0.45/lb for Australia/New Zealand, $0.53/lb for Uruguay/Argentina, and $0.54/lb for Brazil. Across all major exporting origins, the US domestic and import price spread narrowed by approximately $0.10/lb relative to 2024.

This compression occurred despite a continuation of US domestic lean beef supply constraints. Domestic cow slaughter remained limited in 2025, supporting higher prices for...

ANALYSIS: US Egg Prices Drop to Five-Year Low Amid Muted Demand, Mounting Inventories

The US shell egg market is facing one of the most sustained periods of pressure seen in recent history, driven by a rare convergence of weak demand across all major channels and a steadily expanding supply base. Unlike prior downturns that were more narrowly rooted in seasonal lulls or market corrections, the present environment reflects a more entrenched imbalance that has proven difficult to unwind.

Demand: Soft Across the Board

On the demand side, performance has been...

ANALYSIS:2025 Pork Production Trends Reflect Softer Output Versus 2024

According to the latest USDA data, federally inspected monthly pork production in 2025 totaled approximately 25,060.9 million pounds through November, representing a 1.6% decline from the same period in 2024, when output reached 25,460.2 million pounds. On a year-to-date basis, average monthly production in 2025 is running near 2,278 million pounds, down about 1.6% from the 2024 YTD average, and roughly 0.5% below the three-year average. This confirms the narrative established earlier in the year that overall production has moderated...

Subway Launches Resolution-Ready, Protein-Packed Menu to Meet Consumer Demand

Aligned with the latest Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2025–2030, Subway is reinforcing its commitment to protein-forward, value-driven menu innovations. The brand is kicking off the new year with "resolution-ready" offerings designed to meet evolving consumer demand for affordable, better-for-you choices.

Subway’s New Year lineup delivers on what consumers continue to prioritize: "protein power" at an accessible price point.

On Jan 8, Subway introducesd its all-new Protein Pockets, each delivering more than 20g of protein, paired with fresh vegetables...

Lamb Weston Shutters One Plant, Defers to New Production in Argentina; North American Sales Flat

As of January 8, Lamb Weston will close one potato processing facility in Munro to consolidate into its newest facility in Mar del Plata, Argentina, according to a press release from the group that supplies some of the world's largest fast-food chains. While the company realizes most of its profits in North America, officials say other markets like Argentina are growing quickly.

“These actions are part of our broader strategy to improve profitability and enhance operational efficiency across our global manufacturing network..."

Trade Associations Praise Trump Administration’s New Nutritional Guidelines

Following Wednesday’s release of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025–2030, several trade associations welcomed the updated federal nutrition guidance, which places protein back at the center of the plate.

“Thanks to the bold leadership of President Trump, this edition of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans will reset federal nutrition policy, putting our families and children first as we move toward a healthier nation,” US Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said.

“We are realigning our food system to support American farmers, ranchers, and companies that grow and produce real food. Farmers and...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay’s December 2025 Beef Exports Ease 5.2% MOM; Annual Volumes Up 11.2% to 390,334 mt

The latest data from Uruguay’s National Customs Directorate showed that fresh beef (chilled and frozen) exports totaled 33,364 mt in December 2025, declining 5.2% month-over-month (MOM) from November. Despite the monthly pullback, December volumes were 23.6% higher year-over-year (YOY), while 2025 shipments grew 11.2% to a total of 390,334 mt.

The United States remained the leading destination in December, marking a monthly growth of 7.9% to 13,354 mt, up 61.3% YOY. 2025 beef exports to the...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Industry Continued to Battle Record Low Production in November

The USDA’s monthly slaughter numbers for November once again set a new seasonal low in terms of the number of turkeys harvested and the volume of ready-to-cook turkey meat produced...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s 2025 Beef Exports Soar to New Highs at 1.54M MT

Australia’s total beef exports in 2025 soared past 1.5 million metric tons (mt), surpassing previous records, according to data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).

On an annual basis, export volumes rose a solid 15.0% year-on-year (YOY) or 202,189 mt...

Trump Administration Releases New Dietary Guidelines Centered on 'Real Food'

A sweeping reset of federal nutrition policy aims to put real food at the center of the American diet, with a blunt call to cut back on highly processed foods and added sugars. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025–2030, released today, marks a significant departure from past recommendations, redefining expectations for how Americans eat and creating new challenges — and opportunities — for farmers, manufacturers, and retailers. Although the guidelines are reviewed every five years, they have been largely stable since 1980...

Kroger Unveils Customer's 2025 Yearly Checkout

The Kroger Co. today shared that customers saved billions through discounts, promotions and everyday savings throughout 2025. With the Yearly Checkout feature, customers can view a personalized summary of their annual savings, shopping habits and grocery preferences.

"In 2025, we offered our customers record savings across the store on the everyday items that matter the most to their families and even more discounts during those special moments throughout the year," said Mary Ellen Adcock, Executive Vice President and Chief Merchant and Marketing Officer. "With everyday low prices...

Checkers & Rally's Joins the Value War with $5 MVP Meal Deal 

The fast-food "value war" continues, with Checkers & Rally’s joining the fray as consumers seek quality meals without breaking the bank.

The brand’s new $5 MVP Meal Deal includes a choice of sandwich, value-sized fries, a small drink, and a classic apple pie for dessert.

Guests can choose from a Mushroom Swiss Burger featuring a seasoned 100% beef patty, the Spicy Chicken Sandwich, or the Cheese Double made with a quarter pound of seasoned beef and melted cheese.

Cal-Maine Foods Reports Mixed Quarterly Results Amid Shifting Egg Market Dynamics

Company updates and financial results are circulating in headlines as many introduce a fresh quarter.

Cal-Maine checked in with its latest report showing a mix in its performance for the period fueled by 2025's supply-demand imbalances and historic prices.

"Despite the impact of eggs prices, we believe our performance in the second quarter and first half of the fiscal year demonstrates strength and momentum" said Sherman Miller, president and chief executive officer of Cal-Maine Foods. He continued, " We expect the... 

Albertsons Delivers Strong Q3 Results Amid Shutdown Challenges

Albertsons released financial results for its third quarter on Wednesday, reflecting improvements in key metrics while noting impacts from the temporary US government shutdown and delayed SNAP funding.

CEO Susan Morris described the company’s performance as “solid,” saying, "Our investments in technology and AI are fundamentally reshaping how we operate and serve our customers, driving smarter decisions, greater efficiency, and more personalized experiences." She added, "As we look ahead, I am confident that our modernized technology foundation, relentless focus on productivity, and commitment to innovation will enable...

The Retail Rundown: New Year's Resolutions Sustain Protein Demand 

January ushers in seasonal headwinds that typically temper consumer spending, as post-holiday budget pressures encourage more cautious purchasing behavior.

While retail traffic generally softens after the holidays, protein demand remains resilient, supported by early-year wellness goals. Protein also continues to anchor merchandising strategies across foodservice as operators adjust to shifting consumer habits, including the growing use of GLP-1 weight-loss medications.

Restaurants Turn Up the Heat with Comfort Foods, Value Deals, and Returning Favorites

New year, new menus — restaurants are kicking off the year with fresh spins on classics and brand-new culinary creations.

In Expana’s latest Foodservice Round Up of the Year, "value"was pinned as the buzzword of 2025. Customers want (and need) quality without breaking the bank.

That theme looks set to retain its prominence heading into 2026.

With QSRs taking the lead in what’s been coined the "Value Wars," restaurants like Applebee’s and Chili’s have leaned heavily into “2 for” deals, often pairing an appetizer...

Proposed WOTUS Rule Brings Certainty to Farmers

Farmers need rules that clearly define federal jurisdiction of Waters of the United States (WOTUS). The American Farm Bureau Federation today submitted comments to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Army Corps of Engineers, detailing the impact WOTUS has on farmers and elements that must be included in the new proposed rule to ensure it can withstand future legal challenges.

“Farmers and ranchers support the creation of a legally durable rule that injects clarity into the regulatory process and does not leave landowners guessing what parts of their property are subject to regulation,” wrote John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis...

NCBA Congratulates Justin Benavidez on USDA Chief Economist Appointment

Today, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane issued a statement on the appointment of Dr. Justin Benavidez to serve as Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA): 

“U.S. cattle producers depend on economic analysis from USDA to make business decisions every day on their operations. The USDA Chief Economist is crucial to ensuring that quality data reaches farmers and ranchers around the country. Dr. Benavidez has spent his career analyzing the U.S. agricultural economy from his time at Texas A&M University to being the Chief Economist for the House...

Expana Announces CEO Transition as Julie Harris Appointed Chief Executive Officer

Expana, the world’s leading agrifood-focused Price Reporting Agency and market intelligence provider, today announced that Julie Harris has been appointed Chief Executive Officer, effective January 26, 2026. She will succeed Spencer Wicks, who has decided to retire after more than seven years of leadership.

Julie joins Expana with an extensive track record in the global data and analytics sector. Most recently CEO of IWSR, the beverage-alcohol data and insight provider, she led the company through major product expansion, platform modernization