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ANALYSIS: Cattle Weights Resume Contra-Seasonal Gains Following Brief Stall
Cattle weights have resumed their contra-seasonal move higher following a brief stall, putting market participants on high alert.
A string of winter storms and muddy pen conditions impacted cattle performance towards the start of 2024. Dressed steer weights shed 30 pounds during January, hitting a year-to-date bottom at 909 pounds during the week ending February 3.
Dynamics in the cattle market have shifted in recent weeks with weights now displaying a contra-seasonal increase, reversing the declining trend seen since the start...
ANALYSIS: January Chicken Exports Off to a Strong Start
Although it may not be immediately evident based solely on the data, chicken export movement kicked off the year with quite a bang. Despite a 3.4%, or 21.6 million pound, year-over-year (YoY) reduction in total outward tonnage, January’s closing tally of 608.7 million pounds, was enough to position seasonal export figures at the third highest level realized in three decades.
Much like the annual comparisons, the month-over-month (MoM) figures also brought with them a modest reduction of 3.4%, or 21.6 million pounds...
ANALYSIS: South American Beef Exporters Diversifying Beyond China In 2024
As we approach the end of the first quarter of 2024, a subtle yet discernible trend is emerging among major South American beef exporters, particularly Brazil and Uruguay. These countries are showing a tendency towards exploring attractive markets for their beef exports. This strategy doesn't signify a major shift away from China, remaining as the world's largest beef consumer, but rather an adaptive response to diversify their export destinations.
This trend becomes evident when analyzing the beef export data up to February 2024 (frozen, fresh or chilled)...
The Retail Rundown: Seeing Green
Grocers and foodservice establishments alike are seeing green ahead of what is expected to be a record-setting St. Patrick’s Day for spending.
According to an annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics with the National Retail Federation, consumers plan to spend an average of $44.40 per person on the holiday coming up on Sunday, March 17th, amounting to a record $7.2 billion in collective spending—up from $6.9 billion in 2023.
The top spending categories are food and beverages—sláinte! And with the holiday falling on a weekend this year...
ANALYSIS: Beef 50s and Pork 42s Take Diverging Paths
Over the past decade, fresh beef 50s and pork 42s have generally followed a corresponding trend in pricing. The two items can be used interchangeably for processed products like hot dogs and sausage, with preferences among the processors for the materials sometimes boiling down to cost.
Fresh beef 50s have historically maintained a premium over pork 42s with recent exceptions observed in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, accelerated export interest, modestly reduced domestic production, conversion line issues, and retail interest for pork sausage supported the value of 42s, making them...
ANALYSIS: Prudent Buying Takes Hold in Boxed Beef Market as Risk Premiums Limit Forward Bookings
Through just over two months, the USDA’s Weekly 22-90 Forward Delivery Period report has showcased a significant dip in load counts when compared to recent years. For example, compared to last year, the load counts are down by 7.4% and counts are also approximately 20-percent below the five-year average.
Sellers have played an aggressive hand with pricing out front particularly in February as uncertainty continues to mount, the aggressiveness comes amid a margin battle as packers battle rising...
ANALYSIS: Headwinds at the Broiler Hatchery
If there is one resounding theme which has been glaringly apparent throughout our market canvassing efforts recently, it is the fact that there is an underlying lack of chicken production making the rounds. While the call from traditional purchasing channels remains consistent, spot outreach efforts themselves aren’t necessarily any stronger than what historic seasonality would suggest here in early March. As touched on in last week’s analysis, year-over-year (YoY) reductions in frozen inventory levels, along with lighter-than-anticipated live weights, and a 3% dip in cumulative headcount when...
ANALYSIS: Deciphering Ground Chuck Retail Prices in Today's Market
On a year-over-year basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached its COVID-era peak registering at 9.1% in June 2022. Although it has since moderated, the latest data from the USDA reveals that U.S. consumers are allocating the largest proportion of their disposable income to food since 1991, with 11.3% spent in 2022.
This heightened focus on food prices prompts a closer look at discounted Ground Chuck pricing at retail outlets. To conduct a comprehensive analysis, Circana's pricing data was adjusted to account for inflation...
The Retail Rundown: Hopping Towards the Holiday
Seafood maintains its lion’s share of total feature volume with 37% this week, up from 28.6% the week prior. At present, 42% of seafood features stem from the fresh/frozen fillet category as retailers look to capture sales from Lent observers.
Tilapia and salmon have the greatest percentages of feature volume within the fillet category. With prices comparable to or below year-ago levels, retailers were keen to give the two species a larger chunk of circular real estate.
Fresh salmon, the top seller within the finfish category last week, retailed at...
ANALYSIS: Strong Quality Grade, Demand Lull, Dampens Certified Angus Beef® Rib Prices
A lull in demand and an over-performing quality grade have led to a lackluster situation within the Certified Angus Beef® (CAB) rib primal. Both bone-in and boneless product are stuck below year-ago levels. Urner Barry’s CAB Lip-On UP quote is currently listed at $10.75/lb., about 2% below this time last year. The prices have also plummeted about 17% year-to-date but sit about 18% higher than the five-year average...
ANALYSIS: Egg Market Faces Shifting Dynamics and Challenges as Easter Approaches
With the arrival of March and the looming Easter season, observations from sources nationwide suggest modest improvements in retail orders late week. Even though elevated shelf prices are tempering current retail clearance rates to some extent, several large-scale grocers are taking steps to bolster their inventory positions in preparation for heightened holiday demand. Suppliers suspect they may also be seeing some additional lift late this week from the start of the new month, which traditionally injects additional funds back into consumers’ pockets, contributing to an uptick in retail...
ANALYSIS: Assessing January's Freeze in Latest Turkey Cold Storage Report
While day-to-day spot market developments have been fairly limited here in late February, turkey market participants still have plenty on their minds. In addition to the ongoing threat of disease and its impact on production and export throughput, the recently released Cold Storage Report has raised a couple of eyebrows. The latest reading through the end of January brought with it a 4%, or 12.5 million pound, year-over-year (YoY) uptick in total warehouse inventories. Coming in at 302.1 million pounds, January’s closing tally hit the highest...
ANALYSIS: January's Cold Storage Movement Maintains Seasonally-Enhanced Stride
The most recent Cold Storage figures help to confirm some of the supply-side indications which have remained evident throughout our canvassing efforts over the past month. Coming in at 831.6 million pounds, total frozen warehouse stocks through the end of December retreated on a year-over-year (YoY) basis by 6.5%, or 57.9 million pounds. This closely coincides with the weekly slaughter data where early-year holiday and weather-related plant downtime contributed to significant reductions in overall production.
When compared with December, outward movement came in 5%...
ANALYSIS: Shifting Market Dynamics Alter Trend Between Cattle and Corn Prices
Cash corn and cattle prices followed a comparable track over the past ten years. However, that tandem trend began to change starting in 2022 due to significant shifts in market dynamics for both commodities.
Omaha, US No 2 Yellow Corn prices peaked at $8.43 per bushel in June 2022, closely challenging the record hit in 2012. The rise in corn prices that year was driven in part by supply disruptions created by the Russia-Ukraine war, as Ukraine is a major supplier of grains to the world markets...
The Retail Rundown: Plenty to Munch on in March
Baseball, basketball, briskets, and the list goes on! Retailers have their sights set on spring demand with March just around the corner. Next month brings several buying opportunities and a refresh for the retail food landscape following the February slump.
Just a little over two weeks out is St. Patrick’s Day on March 17th. Bar and foodservice establishments are expected to benefit from patrons out and about for the holiday, which falls on a weekend this year.
Consumers in the U.S. also celebrate the holiday with corned beef, which is made...
ANALYSIS: Inside Rounds Witness Post-Valentine's Bump to Highest February Price in Decades
Inside rounds have become one of the highlights within the boxed beef market during what is typically a seasonally dull period. The strength comes after what was a tremendous fall in pricing to end 2023. In October of last year, inside rounds reached a peak of $3.63/lb., before dipping all the way to $2.63/lb. at the onset of 2024. As of February 22, inside rounds sit at $3.18/lb., the highest level seen in the month February since...
ANALYSIS: Lighter Cattle Weights and Reduced Output Pull YTD Beef Production Lower
The impact of last month’s winter storms across the U.S. is illustrated in average cattle weights, which have dropped precipitously since the start of the year.
The latest USDA data indicated dressed steer weights at 909 pounds, up 1 pound from last year but 3 pounds below the week prior. Steer weights started the year at 937 pounds, a seasonal all-time high. Average dressed heifer weights were reported at 827 pounds, up 2 pounds from the week prior but 6 pounds under 2023 and down 24...
ANALYSIS: A Seasonal Snapshot of Christmas and Easter's Boost to Lamb Leg Sales
As Easter approaches, the demand for lamb legs in retail stores noticeably rises, spurred by holiday traditions. Consumers, particularly those of the Catholic faith, often buy lamb legs for Easter as a symbol of renewal. Similarly, lamb is a popular choice during Christmas for some households. This trend leads to a significant uptick in both discounted and non-discounted sales at the retail level, highlighting the cultural impact of these occasions on the protein markets. To meet this surge in demand, suppliers and retailers diligently ensure an...
ANALYSIS: A Closer Look at Formula vs. Negotiated Sales in the Boneless Beef Segment
In the domestic boneless beef sector, it is widely acknowledged that a significant volume of trade is conducted through formula pricing agreements. This analysis delves into this phenomenon, utilizing the volume reported by the USDA of fresh 50% lean trim as an example.
The chart above illustrates that, for the week ending 2/16/2024, 86.57% of the fresh 50% lean trim traded was priced through formulated agreements. To break this down, out of the total trade volume of 19.28M lbs.,16.69M lbs...
ANALYSIS: UK Beef Fillet and Sirloin Prices Firm as Cattle Tightens
The fillets and sirloin markets continue to experience upwards pricing pressure since the beginning of the year. The largest contributing factor is thin inventories due to a tight cattle supply.
While foodservice suffered a lacklustre start of year as the ongoing cost of living pressures discourage consumers from dining out, demand from the retail sector remains strong.
Markets for PGI & UTM sirloins have been moving higher over the last four weeks. UTM whole striploins are seeing some trades at values as...
The Retail Rundown: Finalizing February’s Features
Retailers are finalizing their February features while actively preparing for spring demand, which is bolstered by seasonal factors like warmer weather along with holidays including St. Patrick’s Day and Easter.
Retail features are shifting from red meat and poultry towards seafood as Lenten observers begin the 40 days of fasting and reduced meat consumption.
The seafood complex continues to hold the top spot within total protein features, accounting for 37% this week. Beef follows with 21% of retail buying opportunities, while pork closes in at 19%. Chicken claims almost 16% of ad space, nearly...
ANALYSIS: December Chicken Export Volume Reaches New Seasonal Altitude
Judging by the year-end numbers, chicken export movement concluded 2023 under a relatively robust backdrop, especially when considering the ongoing global trade complications related to HPAI. At 645.2 million pounds, total outbound tonnage during December not only surpassed the previous year by 7.4%, or 66.1 million pounds, but also hit a record seasonal high.
The cumulative data, however, tells a slightly different story of how the year played out. Between January and December, total export volume retreated by 4.2% when compared with the previous year...
ANALYSIS: Hog Weights Decline but Remain at Seasonal All-Time Highs
Significant disruptions to pork production in January due to the New Year's holiday and a string of winter storms created a backlog of market-ready hog supplies and historically heavy hog weights. Average live weights for barrow and gilts in Iowa/Southern Minnesota started the year at 293.1 pounds, a seasonal all-time high and two pounds below the record high hit in May 2020.
Weights remain at seasonal record highs but have posted three consecutive weeks of declines, suggesting that producers are becoming increasingly...
ANALYSIS: December Turkey Exports Leave Room For Interpretation
While Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has been slow to relinquish its ugly grasp on the turkey industry, December’s ending export figures didn’t deviate too far from the established seasonal course.
As 2023 came to a close, total outbound volume hit 42.1 million pounds. So what does this mean for market participants? Sentiment is highly dependent on one’s vantage point. On one hand, December’s export tally marks a significant 43.1% advance when compared to the year prior. On the opposite hand, it is important to bear in mind that 2022’s sweeping...
ANALYSIS: January's Shifting Trends in Brazilian Beef Export Dynamics
The recently released Brazilian export data for January unveiled significant shifts in the beef market, signaling a slightly broader diversification of Brazilian beef export destinations early this year.
While China remains the dominant player, its share saw a slight decline, as frozen boneless beef exports to China dropped by 11.8% from the same time of last year, amounting to a massive volume of 96,329 metric tons (MT) compared to 98,857 MT for the previous January, aligned with a 9.49% reduction in the average price per MT. This decline in prices reflects...
ANALYSIS: Fresh Beef At Retail Sees Slight Dip to Begin Year
The latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s Meat Price Spreads report indicated that beef prices at the retail level remain at elevated levels, despite coming down slightly from the all-time highs seen during the fall of 2023.
As of January 2024, the all-fresh beef retail value sat at $7.81/lb., just 1.63% below the all-time high mark of $7.94/lb. seen in October 2023. Beef remains the priciest option in the meat case when compared to pork and chicken...
The Retail Rundown: Surf and Turf Promotions for Valentine's Day
It's Cupid's Day and love is in the air for the foodservice sector as consumers celebrate with an evening out and a special meal.
Following the Super Bowl craze, the balance of this month is generally lackluster for retail. However, increased demand for premium cuts of meat and seafood helps to lift overall protein sales, especially for restaurants and fine dining establishments.
Various restaurant chains were showcasing Valentine's Day promotions last weekend and continue to offer special deals for the upcoming weekend including prix fixe menus for two.
Consumers planning...
ANALYSIS: US Egg Prices Reach Record February Highs Amid Strong Retail Demand, Supply Constraints
The latest reports from suppliers across the country indicate that retail demand for eggs remains strong, persisting well beyond the initial surge attributed to a string of snowstorms that blanketed the nation in January. While inclement weather may have contributed to increased consumption at the outset, the continuation of high demand suggests that other factors are also at play. One of those factors is undoubtedly the strategic use of eggs as a loss leader by large grocery chains and hypermarkets...
ANALYSIS: Honing Chicken Production Expectations
As we inch closer toward mid-Q1 and with springtime just over a month away, chicken market participants have quite a lot to think about when it comes to the road ahead. While factors such as disease, export volume, cold storage, and consumer spending habits are among several topics “du jour”, production and supply expectations are also top of mind for many. One report which provides some insight into the future supply potential of the chicken industry is the USDA’s Weekly Broiler Hatch Report. As our chart illustrates, year-over-year (YoY)...
ANALYSIS: Navigating Uncertain Terrain in a Dynamic Turkey Market
Although the turkey trade environment is off to a relatively quiet start here in February, there is no shortage of factors which are capturing the attention and consideration of market participants. In addition to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding disease and its impact on both supply and export throughput, feed costs remain top of mind for those on the grow out side of the business.
As our chart illustrates, the average value of Omaha No.2 yellow corn, a key component in poultry feed, stood at $4.64/bushel in January...
ANALYSIS: Assessing the Price Disparity Between Domestic and Imported Lean Trimmings
Over the past two years, the lean trim market has witnessed a notable disparity in pricing between domestic and imported lean, as well as end cuts, including top rounds. In the graph above, 2022 appears relatively stable, contrasting sharply with the substantial gaps observed in 2023. In 2022, the highlighted items moved in tandem, particularly in June and November, facilitating straightforward formulations. However, 2023 introduced significant price spreads, reaching the peak in the fall when domestic 90% fresh chemical lean (CL) commanded a $.67/lb...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Wings: Market Playbook 2024
Football season is heating up as fans eagerly watch to see what team will come out of Superbowl LVIII victorious. But for chicken market participants and industry observers, the big game isn’t the only thing on the radar at the moment. For many, football season is synonymous with “wing season” However, as this week’s chart illustrates, jumbo whole wing values and market trends have been all over the field over the past several years.
2021, for instance, carried values to $3.22/lb. which not only marked a new all-time-high...
ANALYSIS: Can the Momentum Continue for Beef Cheek Meat as Prices Soar?
As participants within the beef markets continue to seek out cheaper alternatives to some higher priced boxed beef cuts, one beneficiary has been beef cheek meat. A versatile item that can be used for an extensive list of eating experiences. As consumers continue to feel the bite of inflationary pressures, buyers within the market are seeking out more price palatable items. Urner Barry’s Beef cheek meat price has come into 2024 at the strongest level on record at $2.67/lb. on January...
The Retail Rundown: Super Sunday Promotions
The Super Bowl ranks as the second biggest eating occasion of the year, behind Thanksgiving. To prepare for this weekend's celebrations, circulars are brimming with promotions on items like finger foods, party trays, and beverages ahead of the showdown between Kansas City and San Francisco.
The National Chicken Council (NCC) projects chicken wing consumption for Super Bowl LVIII at 1.45 billion wings, unchanged from last year's record level. Americans are more likely to prefer eating bone-in wings (53%) than boneless wings, based on the NCC’s survey findings.
Urner Barry's jumbo wing values...
ANALYSIS: Assessing Premium Grade Spread; Typical Seasonality or a Shift in Demand?
With nearly a month behind us in 2024, choice and select graded boneless ribs have traveled down differing paths to start the year. Ribs typically begin every January facing downward pressure as holiday demand dwindles and consumers focus on lower-priced beef items like ground beef and roasting cuts. That story held true for Choice ribs with Urner Barry’s Choice Lip-on Boneless Rib Down quote falling roughly 12 percent from the start of 2024 through January 30 from $11.74/lb. to...
The Retail Rundown: Touching Down on Super Bowl Spending
The retail sector is touching down on the first major retail food-buying occasion of the year—the Super Bowl. The game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will take place on Sunday, February 11th and grocers have plenty to celebrate ahead of what could be a record-smashing milestone for sales.
A record 200.5 million viewers are expected to tune in to Super Sunday, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). Collective spending on food, drinks, apparel, decorations, and other purchases could hit $17.3 billion, also...
Analysis: Elevated Pork Cutout Values Amidst Supply Disruptions in January
The average weekly Urner Barry pork cutout value currently stands at about $88.1/cwt for last week, reflecting a 7.9% increase compared to the same period last year. This marks the second-highest level for this week in January historically since data collection commenced in 2003; with the only higher value recorded being in 2022 largely due to labor challenges stemming from the pandemic.
The recent uptick in cutout value is primarily linked to holiday downtime around production schedules and extensive disruptions from winter weather across the US...
ANALYSIS: Stiff Competition for Lean
In conversations with cow packers across the country, a re-occurring topic of discussion is diminishing margins as they contend with higher prices to compete for animals in short supply. This sentiment is reinforced by the graph below, highlighting the USDA Weekly National Dressed Direct Cow Market (all weights), which soared to a record high of $225.19/cwt in August 2023 and has remained elevated since.
Despite the historic surge in cow pricing, the available supply continues to contract. As of the week of January 15, cow and bull slaughter declined over 16%...
Analysis: A Closer look at UK Beef Production, Consumption and Prices
The volume of beef produced in the UK in 2023 was 817 000 MT, 2.5% down from the previous year. This was on the back of a 1.3% decline in prime slaughter numbers. Cows also dropped by 2.5% and totalled 612 000 heads.
Market participants have cited that adverse wet weather conditions caused flooding and wider disruption during the month of December may have had an impact on throughputs. On the other hand, domestic consumption data from the USDA shows that UK beef consumption in 2023...
The Retail Rundown: Packing on the Protein
The retail space is packing on the protein as grocers promote healthy eating campaigns and hearty options like roasts during the wintry woes endured by much of the country in recent weeks.
For the second week in a row, seafood features take the top spot with 30.7% of retail buying opportunities. Pork climbed to second place with 23.7% of ad space, followed by beef with 20.4%. Chicken feature volume stands at 19% this week, up two points from the week prior. Turkey saw a slight decrease to 3.7% while eggs held...
ANALYSIS: Weather, Seasonal Demand Providing Momentum for Outside Rounds in 2024
To begin the year, outside rounds have witnessed noticeable strength, with pricing moving higher in rapid fashion. Urner Barry’s Choice Outside Round quote began the year at $2.75/lb., just slightly below levels seen at the start of 2023. However, the item has jumped by over 28 percent to $3.53/lb. in less than three weeks. As of January 15, outside rounds are 19 percent above the 3-year average.
To put this in perspective, the last time outside rounds were a...
ANALYSIS: Unraveling Turkey Production Dynamics
With the late Q4 and early Q1 holidays now in the rearview mirror, turkey market participants are rolling up their sleeves and are ready to get down to business. Given the turkey market’s choppy and somewhat unpredictable past, buyers and sellers alike are paying particularly close attention to the forward-facing production stats as they attempt to hone their expectations for the uncertain road ahead.
At the risk of being overly obvious, disease-related complications remain top of mind for most participants as HPAI has been slow to relinquish its ugly grasp from much of...
The Retail Rundown: Consumer Sentiment Rises at Year's End
Consumer sentiment spiked at the tail end of 2023, boosted by improved viewpoints of inflation in the new year. According to the University of Michigan’s (U-M) Survey of Consumers, consumer sentiment climbed by 14% in December, reversing the declines from the previous four months.
All age, income, education, geographic, and political identification groups saw gains in sentiment in December, said U-M. The index is just shy of the midpoint between the pre-pandemic reading and the historic low hit in June 2022, added U-M.
The University of Michigan's...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: Frost Bite or Calculated Chill?
Although the turkey trade environment is relatively hushed coming out of the extended holiday weekend, there is no shortage of considerations for players and industry observers to mull over here at year’s end. One recent publication which has garnered quite a lot of attention is November’s Cold Storage Report.
The latest inventory assessment reveals a noteworthy 44%, or 140.3 million pound, year-over-year (YoY) leap in total tonnage. While upward movement has persisted throughout much of 2023, November's surge stands in stark contrast to the 8.8% average rise observed...
ANALYSIS: Cracking Trends: A Closer Look at the Broiler Hatchery
With 2024 right around the corner, chicken marketers are increasingly shifting their attention towards the road ahead. While seasonality does provide a general roadmap of the demand side of the equation, most players agree that production has been anything but an easy read lately. This scenario was evidenced in last week’s analysis which shined light on this year’s asymmetrical distribution of headcount by weight class.
One report which does provide some insight into the future production potential of the chicken industry is the Weekly Broiler Hatch...
Mintec Releases "Christmas Dinner Index 2023" Report
Mintec's Christmas Dinner Index, which measures price fluctuations across key food commodities that make up a traditional Christmas dinner (main meal and dessert), increased by 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in November 2023.
Mintec enables the world's largest food and manufacturing brands to implement more efficient and sustainable procurement strategies. We do this through our cutting-edge SaaS platform, Mintec Analytics, which delivers market prices and analysis for thousands of commodities, food ingredients and associated materials. Our data and tools empower our customers to understand prices better, analyze their spend...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Market Landscape: A Year in Review
Although discussions pertaining to HPAI continue to dominate most turkey-related conversations, various other factors are also capturing the attention of industry participants as we fast approach the new year. Notably, those involved in turkey production are enjoying some price relief at the “silo”.
The key component in feed, Omaha No. 2 Yellow Corn, has exhibited a consistent year-over-year (YoY) downtrend in value over ten of the past twelve months. This has resulted in a year-to-date (YTD) average price of $4.23 / bushel which represents an 18.5% ...
The Retail Rundown: Ham Features Increase for the Holidays
The countdown to Christmas is rapidly winding down and shoppers are busy stocking up on last-minute gifts and food for visiting family and holiday gatherings.
For the second week in a row, pork features claim the top spot among protein ads this week with 28.4%. Seafood follows with 25.7% of total protein ad volume, while beef comes in third at 20.5%. Chicken retail buying opportunities declined to 8%, compared to 13.8% the previous week. Turkey features advanced to 9.7%, up about four points from last week...
Analysis: Current Trends in the Pork Butt Market
The ¼-inch bone-in butt market has experienced elevated price levels, with the weekly average price currently standing at $118.5/cwt. This price is comparable to levels observed in 2011 and 2014, during the PEDv outbreak, yet it remains slightly below the 2022 levels.
Currently, it ranks as the third-highest price historically recorded for this week in December. This trend can be primarily attributed to more active demand from South Korea compared to past years, despite the current pace of U.S. total pork production...
ANALYSIS: Eye of Rounds Move Sharply Lower Ahead of the Holidays
In recent weeks, the round complex has witnessed broad-based weakness and prices for multiple items within the category have moved sharply lower. Of the most notable, the choice eye of round has trimmed roughly 25 percent of its value since November 27 as supplies have simply outweighed demand. On November 27, choice eyes were $3.90/lb. Less than three weeks later, the item sits at $2.98/lb.
Now, this is not out of the norm for this time of the year...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Start Q4 on a High Note
While recent outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in various states and counties have posed challenges to the international footprint of the turkey industry, export performance through the end of October demonstrated noteworthy resilience.
During this period, the total outbound movement reached 52.9 million pounds. This marks the highest seasonal level observed since 2020 and also reflects a 5.8% increase when compared to September. With that being said, it is worth noting that October's cumulative movement still lagged approximately 18 percentage...
ANALYSIS: Rib Roasts Continue to Rise
With the holidays rapidly approaching, one item on everyone’s radar has been export ribs or bone-in ribeyes. The holiday favorite has posted new all-time record highs for the month of December, with Urner Barry’s Choice quote sitting at $12.50/lb. This is about 9 percent higher than the previous all-time record high, which was recorded in 2022.
Bone-in ribeyes started their rally much earlier in the year when compared to previous years. This year’s rally began towards the end of July, where historically, procurement efforts would start up closer...
The Retail Rundown: Thanksgiving Turkey Retail Prices Reported Higher Despite Wholesale Drop
With Thanksgiving in the rearview mirror, Urner Barry is looking back at how this year’s retail Thanksgiving sales compared to recent years.
According to Circana data, retail turkey prices on both a discounted and non-discounted basis have consistently trended higher in the past five years. Generally, distribution has also seen an uptrend in recent years.
Distribution is a measure that reports the distribution of discounted and non-discounted items. It takes into account the number of Universal Product Codes (UPCs) selling within a given aggregate...
Analysis: UK Beef Markets for Round Cuts Remain Seasonally Strong
Retail suppliers are beginning to see a slowdown in demand as wholesale buying for the holiday season subsides. While prime steaks continue to see brisk movements in the marketplace, they have lost some of the premiums we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks. Weakness was more prevalent on some fillets, ribs, and sirloins. PGI Chain off fillet traded at £27/Kilo on the top side of the market, down from the previous week’s £30/Kilo.
With the arrival of winter, markets for cold-weather cuts including topside...
The Retail Rundown: Season’s Gr-eatings
Season’s gr-eatings! The holiday season of spending is underway, giving rise to retail sales and food purchases.
This year’s holiday spending has already made history. A record 200.4 million shoppers stepped out over the five-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend, according to the annual survey released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Consumers shopped both online and in-store throughout the Thanksgiving weekend, with 121.4 million people visiting physical retail locations to browse and make in-store purchases—consistent with 2022. Online shoppers totaled 134.2 million, up by four million...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: Less Than What Meets the Eye
The recently released October 31 Cold Storage Report paints a familiar seasonal picture to much of the turkey complex. At the same time, the latest data illuminates the stark contrast between this year's inventory levels and the record lows realized back in 2022.
October’s closing tally reveals a total of 319.7 million pounds of turkey in public warehouses. When pitted against last year, frozen stocks rose by just shy of 13%. Conversely, outward monthly movement kept closely in line with seasonal expectations, dropping 24.1% below...
Mintec Releases "Thanksgiving Dinner Index 2023" Report; Read It Here
Mintec enables the world's largest food and manufacturing brands to implement more efficient and sustainable procurement strategies. We do this through our cutting-edge SaaS platform, Mintec Analytics, which delivers market prices and analysis for thousands of commodities, food ingredients and associated materials. Our data and tools empower our customers to understand prices better, analyze their spend and negotiate with confidence.
Mintec’s latest report, “Thanksgiving Dinner Index 2023,” is a look at the components that make up the traditional holiday dinner...
Urner Barry’s Market Briefing Provides Insights on Commodity Protein Markets
Urner Barry is the leading provider of protein market news and information in the food industry. Through daily canvasses of the trade and an unrivaled historical database, our analysts are uniquely positioned to report on the underlying conditions and significant disruptors to the market. In this Market Briefing, Urner Barry reporters outline the latest action in the commodity protein markets, highlighting seasonal factors, disruptors, and current supply and demand fundamentals.
Click HERE to view the latest report...
The Retail Rundown: 2023 Thanksgiving Outlook
Thanksgiving is just one week out and grocers are bracing for a busy weekend ahead as shoppers secure any remaining needs for the holiday feast. Below, we have the latest outlook on what Turkey Day 2023 may bring.
The Star of the Show
Shoppers this Thanksgiving may breathe a sigh of relief when looking at prices for the big bird. Last year, households shelled out more money for their turkeys due to factors including highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) complications, low cold storage holdings, and inflation.
A lull in bird flu detections following the initial outbreak...
ANALYSIS: A Turkey Production Puzzle
Given the recent resurgence in commercial HPAI cases, turkey market participants are keeping an eye trained to the sky and the other eye glued to the charts as they speculate about potential impacts that the disease could have on the spot market landscape.
Between the first outbreak in Q4, which was reported on October 4th, and the latest case reported on November 3rd, a total of 992,600 commercial turkeys have been impacted by the disease; the majority of which were being raised for next year's meat requirements...
ANALYSIS: Strong Retail Demand, Bird Flu Outbreak Send Egg Prices Soaring to Seven-Month Highs
After more than five weeks of no change, the shell-egg market began its seasonal ascent in the penultimate week of October, as it often does, on a combination of strengthening retail demand and mounting confidence in the lead-up to Thanksgiving. Days later, that upward momentum got kicked into overdrive, following reports that the bird flu had broken out on a commercial layer farm for the first time in eleven months.
High-path avian influenza began making a resurgence among commercial turkeY...
The Retail Rundown: Tuning in to Holiday Turkey Features
For this week's retail rundown, we're tuning in to holiday turkey features as Thanksgiving inches closer. Grocers are making room for the big bird in their meat cases and freezers for the millions of turkeys that will be gobbled down in two weeks.
Seafood maintains the top spot among protein ads with 23.8% of features this week. Turkey ads captured nearly 9% of protein features this week, up from 6.9% the previous week. Within the turkey complex, frozen whole turkey features account for 56.5% of features, up from 25% a week...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Concludes Q3 on Unlevel Ground
The most recent chicken cold storage inventory figures leave room for interpretation depending on the timeframe and item in question. Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons for September were somewhat choppy, while the month-over-month (MoM) data generally aligned with historical expectations for this period.
Total inventories dropped by 3.4%, or 29.6 million pounds from last year. Still, at 844.3 million pounds, overall chicken holdings maintained the sixth-highest seasonal level in nearly three decades. This is saying a lot, especially when considering the underlying lack of public warehouse vacancy...
The Retail Rundown: Roast Features Heat Up as Temperatures Dip
An early-season snowstorm has arrived for portions of the Northwest, bringing accumulations of up to a foot in areas including Mondana and North Dakota. The system is forecast to spread into the North Plains by midweek, according to the National Weather Service.
A cold front will bring frigid temperatures southeastward towards the week's end, with single-digit temperatures possible for some regions. In contrast, much of the central and eastern U.S. is experiencing near or above-average temperatures this week...
ANALYSIS: Bacon's Market Journey Through 2023
According to the most recent data from Circana on COMTELL, as of October 15, 2023, the average price of non-discounted bacon across all U.S. foods was $6.66/lb. This figure was preceded two weeks prior by the highest price recorded this year, at $6.95/lb. In the period from January to May of 2023, supplies of bellies in cold storage saw an increase, attributed to lackluster interest in bacon from foodservice sectors during the first half of the year. However, a decline in both frozen and fresh belly supplies became evident...
ANALYSIS: Ribs Pushing Higher in Typical Seasonal Fashion – But Still Not at Recent Spreads
With beef production down 5.2 percent through October 13, product availability has become a large concern for high-quality middle meats, ribs and tenderloins in particular.
Market participants in the Certified Angus Beef and upper two-thirds arena are becoming much more proactive around procurement this year when it comes to these items. Last week Urner Barry reported full steady to firm tones in the CAB rib category, while tenderloins were the lone item in the loin complex to move higher on limited supplies and active...
ANALYSIS: Shank and Ribeye Pricing Trends in Mexican Export Market
As we enter the final quarter of the year, two specific cuts have begun to exhibit notable activity within the Mexican export market: shanks and ribeyes.
In 2023, the behavior of shanks has been rather atypical. While this cut traditionally experiences a seasonal price surge in the last quarter of the year, followed by a decline in February, this year has seen a more modest fluctuation. This deviation can be primarily attributed to the limited inventories in the U.S. boxed beef market and the concurrent surge in...
ANALYSIS: A Birds Eye View of Conventional The Shell Egg Market Over the Back Half of 2023
The back half of 2023 has experienced something that we seldom seem to speak of anymore: steadiness. From May 26th through August 9th our Midwest Large benchmark quote went unchanged for 75 days which tied the all-time record which was initially set in 1990. Following this, over a stretch of 6 weeks prices increased from $1.28/dozen to a high of $1.74/dozen and then subsequently declined to $1.33/dozen over the succeeding 3 weeks...
ANALYSIS: Lackluster Beef Demand, Tight Cattle Market Impacting UK Beef Prices
Despite continued tightness in the cattle market, the decline in beef demand, largely due to inflation woes, counteracted the upward pressure on wholesale beef prices. Over the last three weeks, most items within the UK beef market have struggled to maintain the kind of premiums that were being traded earlier in September.
Markets for premium cuts including ribs and fillets were strong and while there were indications that processors were competing for thinner supplies, feedback on demand varied greatly from supplier to supplier..
The Retail Rundown: Keeping a Watchful Eye on Bird Flu
The threat of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has resurfaced, with USDA reporting detections among commercial turkey flocks in South Dakota, Utah, and Minnesota earlier this month and again last week.
The fall migration of wild birds as they head south for winter could bring a new wave of infection, renewing concerns among market participants about the potential supply and trade implications of bird flu. The latest detections were on Friday, October 13, on two WOAH Non-Poultry operations located in North Dakota and Montana along with one commercial turkey...
ANALYSIS: Strips Falling Out of Favor
The 0x1 Strip Loin has seen some ups and downs this year, quite volatile ones to be fair – especially when compared to last year. Upon exiting Memorial Day, live cattle prices jumped nearly $5.00/cwt, prompting sellers to rapidly pull and replace offers significantly higher. This shot the 0x1 Strip to nearly $10.45/lb. by mid-June, roughly 21 percent higher than the same time last year.
Fast-forward to July, severe weakness kicked in, which is typical for this time period, the strip went on to lose approximately 22 percent in...
ANALYSIS: Mexican Domestic Prices Outperforming Exports
In recent weeks, the Mexican domestic market has exhibited a consistent firmness in its prices. As a result of decreased production and an uptick in cattle prices. Domestic market quotes have managed to maintain levels above the Mexican export market. This has prompted sellers to adopt a more analytical approach when exporting materials to the United States.
We began to see this divergence in the beginning of the year due to exchange rates playing a more significant role. However, the increased demand in the domestic market became an additional factor driving up Mexican prices...
The Retail Rundown: Grocers Try to A-Maize Shoppers this October
October is abuzz with harvest activities and seasonal factors increasingly taking hold, including a transition to cooler weather cooking, particularly as chilly conditions begin to arrive for the West.
However, parts of the country are experiencing unusually warm weather so far this fall, with daily-record high temperatures recorded in areas of South Dakota and Indiana earlier this week.
This has allowed some consumers to extend the outdoor grilling season, considered supportive of meat sales. Moreover, protein consumption is benefitting from several demand drivers this month, including tailgating activities...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Hatch: Short-Term Drain, Long-Term Gain?
The chicken marketing environment has been anything but a sure bet throughout 2023. Wide fluctuations in average live weight and volatile demand patterns are among several factors which have forced players to roll up the seasonal roadmap and, instead, fly by the seat of their pants. However, one component which has maintained a fairly consistent trend, especially in recent weeks, is the hatch.
The latest stats out of the Broiler Hatchery Report, highlight a 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) downturn in egg sets during the week ending September 23rd...
The Retail Rundown: Pork and Seafood Share the Spotlight Next Month
Pork and seafood will share the spotlight next month, as October is recognized as both National Pork Month and National Seafood Month. Retailers are expected to increase feature volume for the two proteins in the weeks ahead to promote spending this fall.
October is reserved for National Pork Month to help move product when hog supplies are large. While a seasonal expansion in supplies typically takes place around this time of year, ongoing liquidation efforts may keep a lid on supplies this fall and winter.
Weekly hog slaughter levels...
The Retail Rundown: Fall-ing into Seasonal Trends
It’s the end of an era…or at least, a season. Pumpkin everything has already been underway for a couple of weeks and the fall equinox officially arrives on Saturday, September 23rd.
Grocers are increasingly highlighting autumn retail trends consistent with indoor oven cooking, resulting in shifting feature volume from grilling cuts to cooler-weather items like roasts.
Beef roasts have seen a notable uptick in feature volume since the beginning of the month, currently claiming 22% of total beef ads. Comparatively, the roast category accounted for 14% of beef ads...
Analysis: UK Beef Prices Hold Firm Amid Tight Cattle Market
Demand for beef has been subdued throughout the summer months, but in recent weeks, market participants are seeing increased buying interest for most cuts. Prices throughout the beef complex are generally firming, with carcass cutouts moving higher for the last 3 weeks across all grades. At the same time, the cattle market is reportedly tightening, with persistent price increases noted on both prime cattle as well as cows.
Low-value steaks such as featherblades have experienced increased buying interest in recent weeks. After maintaining steady prices throughout August, PGI, UTM &...
ANALYSIS: Whole Body Turkey Values: Retreating Below the Mean
With no more food-focused holidays standing between now and Thanksgiving, turkey market participants are again taking a good hard look at the whole bird market.
This week's $.02/lb. drop in the Urner Barry quotations might appear relatively inconsequential at first glance, but in actuality this is a continuation of a contra-seasonal fall from grace which has been playing out since May.
A glance at the year-to-date (YTD) figures highlights a 26%, or $0.48/lb,. price correction between the outset of ‘23 and mid-September...
The Retail Rundown: Checking on Chicken; Latest Inflation Reading
For more than thirty years, the National Chicken Council (NCC) has partnered with major U.S. chicken producers to promote chicken sales this month—leading to September being crowned as National Chicken Month.
In what was historically regarded as a slow period for poultry sales following the conclusion of summer grilling, increased in-store promotions and ad campaigns including chicken-centric recipes have helped extend the robust summer consumption season into September since the program's inception in 1989.
The number of chicken items found in advertisements this week based on Urner Barry's...
ANALYSIS: Tom Breast Meat: Off Piste
As we crawl out of “deli season” turkey market participants are paying particularly close attention to the breast meat market and all it takes is one glance at this week’s chart to understand why.
Since the outset of Q3, fresh tom meat has shed 4.1%, or $0.11/lb. While these figures might seem like a mere rounding error at first glance, they stand out like a sore thumb when compared to the established seasonal trend.
Over the past decade, spot quotations have notched upward by just shy of 9% throughout the quarter as...
The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Shifts in September
From back-to-school shopping to the return of NFL season, September ushers in a flurry of buying occasions for the retail sector as seasonal shifts in consumer buying behaviors begin to take hold.
Purchases for school lunches, snacks, and extracurricular activities lift sales at the deli counter and prepared and frozen foods sections of the grocery store. Last week, the lunchmeat category earned $95.9 million in total sales, up from $67.4 million the week prior. Roasted turkey continued to drive deli service sales and retailed at $10.64 discounted, up 79 cents from...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: A Seasonal Seesaw
The latest round of turkey inventory figures closely align with the general day-to-day supply backdrop currently in place for much of the complex while, at the same time, inviting some healthy speculation about what the future might have in store.A bird’s eye perspective of July’s total cold storage holdings was far from eye-catching, at least when it comes to percentage change.
Year-over-year tonnage advanced by a modest 3.2%, which equates to a 13.6 million pound uptick. At the same time, inward monthly movement notched slightly higher by a...
The Retail Rundown: 2023 Labor Day Feature Rundown
In the final push before Labor Day weekend, grocers are touting grilling items and party staples as consumers celebrate the last big summer occasion of the season.
Pork and seafood features each account for about 26% of total retail buying opportunities this week. Beef closely follows with 25.6% of feature volume while chicken comes in with 18% of ad space. Egg feature volume saw a noticeable slowdown to 0.7% this week, down from 3.2% the week prior and 4.1% two weeks back.
Ribs and bacon account for the bulk of pork's feature...
ANALYSIS: Flank Steaks – Record Rise, Record Fall
Urner Barry’s Choice Flank Steak quote entered the year at $5.57/lb., about 15 percent above the 5-year average. While January and February were lackluster for the cut, typically sideways trade, about halfway through February procurement for the Spring season began to surface.
Normal seasonal moves higher were seen throughout the months of March, April, and May but this year that rally extended well beyond expectations. The "dog days of summer” had little effect on this item as its stint upward carried into mid-July rallying nearly 72 percent to that...
ANALYSIS: Inflation, Waning Demand Impacting UK Beef Trade This Summer
Inflation, declining cattle prices and lackluster demand are all key themes that continue to influence the UK beef trade this summer. Boxed beef carcass cutouts have struggled for several weeks as offerings for most items were generally fully adequate while demand remained subdued across retail, foodservice and manufacturing sectors.
Despite increased retail beef promotions across the UK, wholesale markets continued their downward trajectory throughout July and August. Several beef items includ
ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Get Leg Up In June
After setting out in January at some of the lowest seasonal levels since 1999, total turkey export volume ended the first half of the year on a high note...
ANALYSIS: The Peso's Influence on US-Mexico Pork Trade in 2023
The combination of economic growth, political stability, and favorable interest rate differentials have contributed to the strength of the Mexican Peso in 2023. The Urner Barry Pork Hams for Export to Mexico 23/27, have been deeply affected by the ever-changing exchange rates between the US dollar and the peso.
A side-by-side analysis of the two bone-in ham charts, priced in USD and Pesos, highlights a significant difference. While hams priced in USD are more in line with 2022 rates, bone-in hams bought with...
The Retail Rundown: Looking Towards Labor Day
Labor Day weekend is drawing near and grocers are busy securing orders for the final major retail buying occasion of the summer season. For this week's retail rundown, we'll take a look at wholesale price action and how it may influence holiday promotions at retail.
In the wholesale beef market, Urner Barry's Choice beef cutout has advanced by nearly 4% so far in August following a correction from seasonal all-time highs in mid-June and throughout July. The Choice cutout is currently down about 6.5% from its summer peak but is nearly 16%...
ANALYSIS: Don’t Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch
At the risk of sounding overly obvious, chicken market participants have had more than their fair share of challenges this year. Wide swings in weekly live weight, topsy-turvy demand patterns, and unscheduled plant downtime are among several variables which have thrown a wrench into the gears of seasonality.
Although the summertime months rarely yield much in the way of pivotal market-influencing trade for the chicken complex, a recent flurry of activity and supply-side constrictions has reignited dialogue about what the balance of Q3 and Q4 might look like for...
ANALYSIS: Whole Turkeys Caught In Downdraft
As we turn the corner to the second half of Q3, turkey market participants have begun to take a good hard look at whole-body birds and it’s easy to see why.
So far this month, 10lb. hens, for example, shed 4% of their value which equates to a $0.06/lb. reduction. While this number might seem relatively inconsequential on its own, it does stand out like a sore thumb when compared with the seasonally established trend.
For perspective, over the past decade, frozen birds have realized an average 2% increase in valuE...
The Retail Rundown: Egg-celerated Features Boost Spending
School is already in session for some students, giving consumers a sense of urgency to embark on one last vacation before August wraps. For the retail grocery sector, the lead-up to September will be used to promote back-to-school shopping along with grilling must-haves for Labor Day weekend.
Last-minute getaways support foodservice spending as consumers flock to tourist destinations and dine out. For grocers, back-to-school shopping typically drives store traffic as families restock on breakfast, lunch, and snack items. Eggs, a quintessential breakfast staple, have seen...
ANALYSIS: The Topsy Turvy Turkey Whole Bird Market
For buyers and sellers of whole-body turkeys, 2023 has been riddled with more questions than answers. The fallout of HPAI-related flock losses throughout ’22 and into early ’23 left very little room for seasonal market behavior to take hold.
Given the limitations on the supply front, bagged hen values remained suspended at an all-time high of $1.85/lb. for the first five months of the year; leaving traditional purchasers with very few opportunities to throw their hat in the ring...
The Retail Rundown: Most Protein Indices Are Below Last Year
A breakdown of this week's retail buying opportunities shows that seafood features make up about 30% of total protein ad volume this week, while beef claims about 25%. Pork follows with 18.2%, down about two points from the week prior. Chicken features account for 16.1% of total protein ads, compared to 17.5% last year. Boosted by back-to-school buying, egg feature volume more than doubled from the week prior to 7.2%.
For this week's retail rundown, we'll take a look at how the various protein indices are performing in...
Urner Barry’s Market Briefing Provides Key Insights Across the Protein Trade
ANALYSIS: Chicken Wing Watch
It isn’t very often that chicken wings elbow their way to the forefront of summertime market conversations, but late Q2 and early Q3 have been anything but “normal” for those on the wing side of the business.
After bottoming out at some of the lowest seasonal levels realized in over a decade, the wing complex began to enjoy some unexpected lift as we ushered in Q3. Since the outset of July, the jumbo wing complex has tacked on $0.24/lb., which equates to a 30% uptick in value. For perspective, during the past 5 years...
ANALYSIS: Counting Turkeys After They've Hatched
Although the summertime months haven’t brought with them many “earth-shaking” developments in the world of turkey thus far, that hasn’t necessarily been considered bad news in the minds of most market participants. If anything, the lack of activity, particularly on the disease front, has eliminated one of the extraneous “wild cards” from the mix; providing some additional clarity on the production front.
As the industry recovers from HPAI and the bird losses which have come as a result, repopulation efforts have begun to get underway. As evidenced by this week’s chart, the number...
ANALYSIS: Price Fluctuations and Supply Concerns in the Brisket and Corned Beef Market
With the bulk of smoking season nearly behind us, briskets have returned to the radar. As the supply picture remains in question, thoughts about procurement for corned beef season have begun to surface. Briskets entered the year at $2.90/lb., about 10 cents below the 5-year average. Since then, briskets have rallied nearly 22% but have recently begun to cool off. With the spring and summer months not offering much in the way of ideal weather conditions, demand...
The Retail Rundown: The August Outlook
August is here and the end to the dog days of summer is in sight—a much-needed pick me up for the protein industry following what is typically a sluggish period for sales post-July 4th.
Grocers are gearing up for Labor Day weekend, roughly four weeks out and the first major retail buying occasion since Independence Day. In the meantime, circulars are already showcasing back-to-school staples including breakfast items and sandwich ingredients as some students begin to return to the classrooms.
According to the latest Circana data for the week...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Conclude Q2 Under Choppy Backdrop
Summertime market conditions rarely bring with them a sense of directional clarity for the turkey market and 2023 is no exception. This time around, even the bellwether lines such as breast meat, are struggling to fall into the seasonal groove. One of the more noteworthy supply-side metrics to surface recently is June’s Cold Storage Report, which brought a 6.3%, or 25.98-million-pound, year-over-year (YoY) advance in total turkey inventory levels.
Inward volume also notched upward from May by 8.9%, which equates to a 35.65-million-pound rise against...
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