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ANALYSIS: Frozen Chicken Inventories Stacking up: A Product of The Times

Considering 2022’s cumulative chicken headcount which topped the charts at 9.5 billion head, there is little question behind last year’s successive advances in year-over-year (YoY) inventory levels...

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Feb 3 7:30 AM, Urner Barry



ANALYSIS: Turkey Market Influencers: Looking Beyond HPAI

While the direct impact of HPAI on the turkey industry cannot be overstated, several other distinct and highly impactful influences are currently in play...

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Feb 2 8:00 AM, Urner Barry


The Retail Rundown: Comparing Urner Barry's Protein Indices

Seafood features climbed to the top spot across proteins this week with 30% of feature volume. Pork follows with 24%, while beef chimes in with 22%—down from 27% the week prior. Chicken accounts for 19.5% of ad space, while turkey holds onto just over 2%. Buying opportunities for eggs have dwindled in recent weeks and are currently registering zero. 

A look at Urner Barry's Weekly Retail Feature Indices so far this year shows that seafood features are priced the highest overall, while chicken features as a whole are the lowest. Seafood and chicken are above their respective year-ago levels, while pork and beef are showing a discount to 2022 levels...

 

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Feb 1 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


The Retail Rundown: How Do Plant-Based Meat Sales Fare at Retail?

Plant protein has piqued increased interest among consumers in recent years. Within the plant protein arena, plant-based meat ranks second in terms of sales dollars, behind plant-based milk.

Boosted by growing demand among consumers, whether vegan, vegetarian, or flexitarian, plant-based meat sales climbed to $1.4 billion in 2020, according to the Good Food Institute. That was up 45% from 2019 and a record year of growth.  However, dollar sales of plant-based meat in 2021 were flat with the year prior at $1.4 billion.

Like conventional meat, the plant-based industry has weathered recent years of pandemic-related challenges including supply chain issues and inflation. A deeper dive into Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) data suggests that plant-based sales at retail could continue to stall following its sharp upward trajectory three years prior...

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Jan 25 11:38 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: The Pork Cutout: What’s going on in 2023?

The Urner Barry and USDA Pork Carcass Cutouts are having their worst starts to a new year in history, with data that dates back to 2003 and 2013, respectively. Regardless of which data you choose to look at, the domestic pork market started out the year in a lackluster fashion. The main culprit in this situation is...

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Jan 25 9:15 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: November Exports - Another Commendable Month for Chicken

The latest round of export figures confirms the general consensus of chicken market participants: November was another stellar month for those on the marketing side of the business...

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Jan 20 9:16 AM, Urner Barry


UB Consulting: Why the Rise in Egg Prices?

The rise in grocery prices has been a topic of conversation for much of the past year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index report highlighted this. In 2022, the average year-over-year increase in the food-at-home index was 11.4 percent. More recently, however, heightened attention has been drawn to the price of eggs at retail—a situation that has left many consumers scratching their heads, asking why eggs are so costly nowadays.

For many consumers, egg prices were of little thought – a relatively inexpensive...

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Jan 20 7:52 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Poult Placements Attempt To Off-"set"- HPAI Losses

If there is anything obvious that can be said about the turkey market, it’s that there has been an underlying lack of production making the rounds, which can be attributed to HPAI and the flock losses which have come as a result...

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Jan 19 8:47 AM, Urner Barry


The Retail Rundown: Seafood Feature Volume Increases

Seafood feature volume increased to the top spot across the protein complex this week. Seafood ads account for nearly 30% of total protein ads, while beef is a close second with 29%. Pork features claim about 23%, while chicken makes up 17%. With the holiday baking season behind us, egg features accounted for less than one percent of total retail buying opportunities.   

In the seafood complex, fresh finfish was the top seller last week with $28.3 million in total sales, or about 32% of the total seafood sales value. A deeper dive into the finfish category shows fresh salmon as the leading species among shoppers. Salmon retailed at an average of $11.24 non-discounted, versus $10.37 discounted.

Fresh cod purchases ranked second with about $19.2 million in sales for the week ended January 8. In the frozen aisle, shrimp retailed at $9.23 non-discounted, 14.5% higher than its discounted average price. Convenient prepared options including frozen seafood cakes made a splash with $560,320 in total sales, according to Information Resources, Inc (IRI) data...

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Jan 19 7:30 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Holiday Favorites Carving Out Record Highs

Now that we are two full weeks into the New Year, one prevailing theme that has carried over in the beef market is uncertainty. This is particularly true within the middle meat complex as seasonality and historical trends have been bucked, thrown upside down, and ignored.

There are a couple of items highlighting the broken seasonal trends and one has been bone-in or as some refer, export ribs. Values currently sit at the highest seasonal levels on record with weakness beginning to be reported.  Our quotations at the time of this...

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Jan 18 9:09 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Deep Dive Into Chicken Wings at Retail

With the “kickoff” of NFL playoffs at our doorstep, football fans and chicken market participants are keeping their eyes trained on the wing complex...

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Jan 16 8:02 AM, Urner Barry


The Retail Rundown: Beef Dominates Total Sales; CPI Data Released

In this week’s retail rundown, we explore the economy and inflation with the latest CPI data signaling slowing inflation. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this morning, showing the index up 6.5% overall in December, in line with what analysts were anticipating. The food index rose 0.3% last month, following a 0.5% increase in November.

The food away from home index was up 0.4% last month. Food at home rose by 0.2%. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and...

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Jan 13 7:30 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Rib Primal Showed Unusual Strength in December

The beef market saw price volatility to the upside to end the year given the sharp production cuts seen in December as packer margins were squeezed from multiple angles. Sudden gains were nearly broad-based as buyers felt the need to step in and procure product amid supply constraint thoughts. This is indicative of the continued strong demand for beef seen for years. But while some of the items should not come as a surprise, a closer look at the rib primal certainly does...

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Jan 12 8:55 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Thin November Export Volume: A Product of the Times

The latest round of turkey export figures serves to confirm the generally lackluster sentiment that most players continue to exhibit...

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Jan 12 8:30 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Ringing in the New Year with Chicken Retail Opportunities

Given the relatively static state of the chicken market, we thought it would be a prime opportunity to dig into something a little bit different this week...

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Jan 9 7:14 AM, Urner Barry


UB Consulting: Labor, Inflation, & Stagflation - What Does it Mean for Protein Commodity Markets?

The current state of the economy has been a topic of concern for much of 2022. And to some degree, rightly so. It has been no secret that living costs have increased throughout the year, with consumers experiencing inflation levels not seen in over 40 years. Fear of recession continues as consumer sentiment hovered around all-time lows for much of the year. Despite the negative attitudes around the market, the economy has been resilient on the labor front, recording low unemployment figures...

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Jan 6 8:01 AM, General News


ANALYSIS: Whole Turkeys Stuck in Suspended Animation

While there is a long list of variables currently at play for the turkey industry, whole-body bird availability and the values associated with them remain top of mind for most players involved...

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Jan 6 8:00 AM, Urner Barry


The Retail Rundown: Exploring COMTELL’s Revamped Retail Section

Urner Barry, the leading provider of protein news and information in the food industry, has overhauled the retail section on COMTELL by utilizing scanner data from Information Resources, Incorporated (IRI), a leading global analytics and data provider from the retail space.  

Through the data from IRI, COMTELL now features a vastly larger database of retail items and related statistics, including hundreds more seafood items and 3 to 5 times as many meat and poultry items. Lamb, veal, and sausage items are also now represented.  

Each new item contains...

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Jan 5 8:15 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Post-Thanksgiving Aftermath…Plenty of Room At the Inn

Keeping in line with what historic seasonality suggests, November’s ending turkey inventory came in at a 52-week low of 141.4 million pounds...

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Dec 30 7:09 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Meat and Poultry Highlights of 2022

2022 has been another challenging year for retailers and participants throughout the supply chain, who have had to contend with the effects of drought, disease pressure, persistent inflation, and logistical issues—just to name a few.

In the face of rising wholesale prices, retail prices for several popular protein options including fresh ground beef, boneless skinless chicken breast, and bacon have hit fresh record highs this year, raising concerns among grocers over slowed consumer purchasing.

As we prepare to ring in the new year, a tight supply situation and...

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Dec 29 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Holiday Chicken Headcount Cartography

With the holiday season upon us, trade activity in the chicken sector has retreated in a seasonally-anticipated manner...

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Dec 23 8:17 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Assessing the HPAI Fallout on Pricing and Supply

As we gradually transition into 2023, the turkey industry is faced with more lingering questions than answers; many of which revolve around HPAI and its possible implication on future production stats and pricing...

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Dec 22 7:41 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Sleigh-ing the Competition with Holiday Deals

With the cost of living remaining high for many households, retailers are hoping to earn consumer dollars with attractive deals in the final days leading up to Christmas.

Last-minute shoppers looking to procure their centerpieces for the holiday dinner table can find competitive offerings on a wide array of proteins this week. 

Looking at this week's protein ads, pork features currently hold the top slot with 31.2% of total retail activity. Seafood follows with 26.5% of ad space, while beef features account for 22%. Turkey makes up 8.2% of circular space and chicken holds onto 7.7% of total retail activity. Egg features are nearly non-existent with just 0.4%. 

In the pork complex, ham features claim 31% of all pork feature activity. Holiday hams average $2.18 per pound, up 27 cents from a year ago. Bone-in butt half hams are featured at $2.32 per pound, a whopping 63.4% higher than this week in...

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Dec 22 7:15 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Turkey Export Volume: Seasonally Moderated

The latest round of turkey export stats help us to pare some of the uncertainty which surrounds the current market landscape...

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Dec 16 8:00 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Bird’s Eye View of Turkey Market Variables

As we close in on the final days of 2022, and given the seasonally stout backdrop surrounding most key lines within the turkey complex, we thought it would be a good opportunity to dig into several influential factors which could continue to impact the market moving forward...

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Dec 8 9:06 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: The Christmas Countdown

Jingle bells—or should we say alarm bells—are ringing now that just two short weekends are left to shop for Christmas. 

In the lead-up to the big day, grocers are focused on holiday spending as consumers prepare to celebrate the season with food and drinks. This sparks interest in the protein case and traditional favorites for the Christmas dinner table, including hams and rib roasts. 

This week in retail, pork leads the charge in retail buying opportunities with 30 percent of total protein ad space. Seafood follows with 24.2 percent, while beef comes in with 22.3 percent. Chicken accounts for 15.5 percent, up slightly from the week prior.

Upon closer inspection, bacon features make up a large chunk of category ads within the pork complex. Brand-label bacon currently averages $6.43 per pound, up 19 cents a year ago and at a near seasonal all-time high. Shoppers can find holiday hams at a more palatable price point of $1.96 per pound on average, below $2.23 last year. Pork roasts are situated above 2021 levels at an average of $2.98 per pound but are competitively priced against many beef and chicken items...

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Dec 8 8:10 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Tenderloins, bust or boom?

With the holidays closing in, interest has been laser focused around two items: ribs and tenderloins...

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Dec 7 8:35 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Grocers Deck the Halls With December Deals

Deck the halls with… wait—it’s December already?

Now that Thanksgiving is yesterday's news, retailers are honing in on Christmas and other holiday demands. This month, several seasonal factors shape both the wholesale and retail markets.

For beef, wholesale prices typically take on a softer undertone towards the year's end once holiday orders are filled. Last year, Urner Barry's Choice cutout value shaved off nearly 10% from the beginning of November to the tail end of December. 

On the contrary, retail prices typically climb to some of their highest levels of the year late this month. This is largely due to increased demand for high-quality beef cuts around the holidays...

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Dec 1 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Beef Cold Storage Stocks Break 8-Month Seasonal Highs

USDA monthly cold storage data released last week showed beef stocks held in the nation’s freezers at the end of October was 509,949,000 pounds. This was three percent below last month, but nearly eight percent above last year.

It broke the string of eight straight months since February that stocks were the highest on record for that month as it crossed below October 2018...

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Nov 28 8:30 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Frozen Turkey Holdings: Seasonal Flight

Given 2022’s 6.4% cumulative year-over-year reduction in ready-to-cook turkey production and the historic tendency of frozen holdings to trend lower during Q4, the latest Cold Storage report shouldn’t come as much of a shock to players who have been following the seasonal trends...

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Nov 23 9:17 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Good Gravy… The 2022 Thanksgiving Rundown

The countdown to Thanksgiving is winding down and consumers are flocking to the supermarkets to secure last-minute needs for the big day.

While it’s hard to ignore the influx of headlines about the higher costs of this year’s feast, some major retailers are still featuring attractive deals on holiday staples despite supply constraints and macroeconomic headwinds. 

Gobble Gobble…

Not to beat a dead horse (or should we say turkey), let’s look another look at the traditional centerpiece. Retail buying opportunities for turkey this week are at 24.5%, up from 21.5% last week. The big bird has seemingly stolen the spotlight from chicken, which plummeted to 2.4% this week versus 12.5% a week ago...

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Nov 17 8:03 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Pork Trim Maintains Year-over-Year Highs

Pork 42s, 72s, and boneless picnics (72% lean) have been setting year-over-year highs for the past few weeks. 42s are on their 6th straight week setting records while boneless picnics and 72s are on their 4 th...

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Nov 16 10:05 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Limited Supply and Record Prices Reduce Turkey Ad Exposure

With just two short weeks to go before the Thanksgiving tables are set, turkey processors are in high gear as they work to box and ship fresh bird obligations and make a wholehearted attempt to fulfill any last-minute needs that might arise...

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Nov 11 8:47 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Busy Shoppers Seek Convenience; Inflation Eased in October

Busy shoppers are increasingly seeking convenience during the hectic holiday season. This typically increases sales at food service and boosts interest in the prepared and frozen sections at retail.  

The meat case is receiving lots of attention, too, as grocers heavily promote traditional holiday items including ham and turkey. 

The National Retail Federation expects overall holiday spending this year to perform well despite ongoing inflationary pain points. The NRF projects holiday retail sales during November and December to grow between 6% to 8% year-over-year. Last year's holiday sales hit a new high at $889.3 billion, lifted in part by pandemic spending.

This week in retail, pork features climbed to the number one spot in retail buying opportunities with 23.2%. Beef closely follows with about 22%. Turkey features have swelled to 19.1%, compared to just 6.4% the week prior. Chicken ads chime in at 13.7%, while egg features have seen a slight uptick to...

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Nov 10 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Forward-Looking Hen Supplies: Fresh Faced, or Fresh Out?

With Thanksgiving just three weeks away, and given the exceptionally tight status of fresh pack turkey availability this time around, buyers who rely solely on the whims of the spot market are relinquishing themselves to the sidelines as they shift their attention to the road ahead...

 

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Nov 4 8:06 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Grocers Focus on Holiday Demand in November 

Store displays have been rapidly reconfigured from Halloween decor to Christmas trees and other quintessential holiday items. For retailers, November is one of the busiest months of the year.

Grocers are prepping for an uptick in foot traffic this month as households stock up for Thanksgiving—just three weeks away.

Big Bird’s The Word…

The wholesale turkey market has ascended to all-time highs this year due to supply constraints caused by the current outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Over 6 million commercial turkeys have been lost to the virus in 2022 so far.

Urner Barry’s whole, frozen young tom and hen turkeys are elevated in record-high territory across all regions. Since establishing this year's low of $1.39 per pound in January, 10 lbs hens have increased 33% to $1.85 per pound. This beats out the previous record set...

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Nov 3 10:00 AM, UB Newswires


This Week in Retail:  Turkey is the Talk of the Town

Now that November is within reach, the floodgates have opened for holiday campaigns. The protagonist of the show—turkey—has garnered widespread attention and snatched headlines this year as tight supplies and high prices could make procuring the Thanksgiving centerpiece more challenging. 

However, some retail outlets continue to utilize turkey as a loss leader and have already begun promoting minimum in-store spending deals for heavily discounted or free turkeys, along with hams and other staples for the holiday.

Consumer spending at retail this year is under question as household bills remain high in the face of inflation—forcing some consumers to reconfigure their budgets...

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Oct 27 8:08 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: August's Chicken Export Volumes Loosely Align With 5-Year Average

With no shortage of unique internal and external variables currently impacting the poultry sector, conventional month-over-month (MoM) and year-over-year (YoY) comparisons have become increasingly detached from the seasonal norm...

 

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Oct 24 8:00 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Making the Grade

Grade has become front and center within the boxed beef markets starting back in May, where we began to see the start of a divergence in pricing based upon quality...

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Oct 21 8:09 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Hatch Figures Paint Mixed Picture

Between atypical fluctuations in demand, human and animal-borne disease, along with widespread labor and material shortages, players within the turkey industry are no stranger to an unpredictable market landscape...

 

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Oct 20 8:07 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: The Expanding Footprint of Medium Sized Chicken…

Not to overstate the obvious, but the chicken industry has been anything but stable over the past year...

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Oct 14 9:10 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Egg Features Lag; CPI Data Outpaces Expectations

As the leaves change color and cooler weather begins to settle in, more households utilize their ovens for baking and slow-cooking ahead of the holiday season.

Typically, retail egg sales see a boost during the fall since more consumers cook breakfast at home more often. In addition, autumn baking draws attention to the egg case as shoppers stock up on ingredients for cookies, bread, pies, and more.

However, overall egg promotional activity is currently described as non-existent across all regions. Eggs account for 2% of retail buying opportunities this week, up slightly from the week prior but down considerably from this week in 2021...

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Oct 13 8:50 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Bone-in Hams Remain at 2nd Highest Levels on Record

On a monthly average basis, 23/27 bone-in pork hams have been at their 2nd highest levels on record since May, according to Urner Barry pricing which dates back to 1981...

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Oct 13 8:19 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Export Volume: Over, Under, Sideways, Down

Given the multitude of unique variables which have impacted the poultry industry over the past two years, traditional year-over-year (YoY) and month-over-month (MoM) comparisons have become increasingly difficult to gauge, and exports are no exception...

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Oct 13 8:10 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Motivating Factors Behind Record-Setting Turkey Values

Given the unshakable strength that key turkey lines continue to exhibit, we thought it would be a timely opportunity to quantify a few underlying factors which are playing an influential role on the current market backdrop...

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Oct 11 8:47 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: EU Shell-Egg Prices Climb to New Record-Highs as Bird Flu Decimates Flock

The European shell-egg market rose to record-high levels this week, as strong demand and inadequate supplies continue to leave processors with limited access to raw material...

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Oct 11 8:46 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: On a Dime...Chicken Production Making a Sharp Comeback

When it comes to the supply side of the chicken industry, hatchery figures have been top of mind lately...

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Oct 7 8:03 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Varying Supplies, Weather Influence Retail Activity

This week, the retail landscape is influenced by an assortment of factors including varying supplies of protein and the weather. 

Looking at pork, hog supplies typically undergo a seasonal expansion from now into the early winter. October is National Pork Month and retailers usually promote pork features to boost sales as more product becomes available.

This year, however, persistent hog disease issues including porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) have kept supplies relatively snug. 

Hog values have depreciated since mid-summer and the national average hog price is currently down nearly 26% from August. Despite a seasonal correction, hog prices remain elevated at near all-time highs for this time of year. Urner Barry's wholesale pork cutout is down roughly 22% from its summer peak and is now 10% under 2021...

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Oct 6 8:10 AM, UB Newswires


Analysis: Chicken’s Enhanced Presence on Freezer Shelves

Given the turbulent market undercurrent which continues to ensnarl the chicken complex, players are digging through the supply-side data as they scavenge the stats for direction and clarity...

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Oct 3 8:48 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: The Differing Directions of Pork Trim and Picnics

In this brief analysis we will take a look at pork movement as we head into Fall, with two categories seeing opposite price action...

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Sep 23 10:03 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Crack New Record Highs Amid Strong Demand, Depleted Inventories

The U.S. shell egg market cracked a new all-time high on Tuesday, as strong demand continues to chip away at already-low inventory levels, which have been curtailed by this year’s bird flu outbreak and, more recently, seasonal flock rotations...

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Sep 22 8:11 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Seasonal Trends Start to Shift 

Farewell, summer. Today is the first day of fall and seasonal retail trends are beginning to shift as grocers increasingly showcase autumn favorites like roasts and finger foods for football fans. 

However, temperatures in many parts of the nation have yet to cool off substantially. This could stretch the grilling season for a little longer. As milder weather starts to settle in for the long run, more households may opt to cook indoors and up their oven usage.

Beef roasts have increased in feature volume and currently claim 27.4% of total beef ads. This compares to 22% of beef ads two weeks ago. Steaks still hold the majority of beef feature volume, followed by ground beef...

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Sep 22 8:07 AM, UB Newswires


This Week in Retail: Protein Indices Are Above 3-Year Average; CPI Data Released 

In the face of ongoing inflationary pressures along with animal disease issues impacting the protein industry, wholesale beef, pork, and poultry prices continue to reside at or challenge all-time highs. 

In the retail red meat complex, Urner Barry’s weekly retail feature beef index this week averages $6.34 per pound, down $1.02 per pound from a week ago but 6 cents per pound above the 3-year average.

The boxed beef market is currently moving mostly sideways but has dipped to 52-week lows in recent days. Despite this, Urner Barry's Choice and Select cutouts remain at near seasonal all-time highs, second or third to 2021 and 2014....

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Sep 15 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Plotting the Course of Chicken Tenders

While items such as wings, boneless breasts, and WOGs have been a central focal point of market dialogue recently, tenders have been slow to relinquish the limelight...

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Sep 9 7:26 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: The Mad Dash for Whole Body Birds

Now that Labor Day is in the rearview mirror, and with no food-centric holidays on the radar before Thanksgiving, it's a timely opportunity to shift our focus towards whole turkeys...

Full Story »
Sep 8 8:30 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Seasonal Transition for the Meat Case

With Labor Day now behind us, retailers are preparing for the transition from summer staples to fall favorites.

Tailgaiting items like burgers and ribs are being featured in time for the National Football League season, which kicks off today! This could support sales at the meat case as consumers gather to cheer on their teams while chowing down on finger foods. 

A game-time staple, chicken wings are on feature for $2.97 per pound, down 2 cents from a year ago. Wholesale wing prices have gained nearly 7 percent so far this year but are currently well below last year’s record highs, providing the opportunity for retailers and foodservice to showcase attractive promotions. However, boneless breasts have mostly been at record highs so far this year—unwelcome news for boneless wing lovers...

Full Story »
Sep 8 8:06 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Pork trim has lost up to 40% since Mid-August

Over the last two weeks, pork 42s, 72s, and boneless picnics (72% lean point) have seen significant declines in value...

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Sep 2 8:37 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Dwindling Turkey Supply: A Consequence of Disease and Hatch

For buyers and sellers alike, 2022 is shaping up to be an extremely challenging year to successfully navigate...

Full Story »
Sep 2 8:15 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Why are lamb weights elevated versus last year?

As this year has worn on, many participants have noted that domestic lamb weights are much heavier than last year...

Full Story »
Sep 1 9:51 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: What is happening with boneless pork butts?

The boneless butt market was recently encountering a price correction, but over the last two weeks, it has started to level out as participants have found attractive price points...

Full Story »
Aug 25 9:33 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Gearing Up for the Last Major Retail Event of Summer

Grocers are gearing up for the last major retail buying occasion of the season—Labor Day weekend. The upcoming holiday signals the “unofficial end” of summer and retailers are making the final push for grilling items.

In the wholesale beef market, Urner Barry’s Choice beef cutout has been largely sideways since mid-May. At present, the cutout is down about 23% from last year's level, which was a seasonal all-time high.

However, the cutout remains at the second highest level in history for this time of year. This has made it difficult for grocers to procure inventory for holiday promotions at lower prices...

Full Story »
Aug 25 8:15 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Tom Harvest Stymies Seasonal Buying Opportunities

For turkey market participants, especially those on the further processing and retail deli side of the business, this summer is shaping up to be anything but “routine”...

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Aug 18 10:01 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Beef Features Increase Ahead of Labor Day

It may be hard to believe, but Labor Day weekend is just over two weeks away.

Grocers have already completed the bulk of their purchases for the last major grilling occasion of the summer season. 

The meat case could perform well over the holiday with several popular grilling items featured at lower price points compared to last year. Ground beef is likely to grab a large share of circular space as households fire up the grill with burgers and more...

Full Story »
Aug 18 8:12 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Stabilize Amid Demand Improvements, Flock Rotations

Monday halted an almost three-week correction in the shell-egg market that saw our benchmark Midwest large quotation shed 36.7% of its value. The market in recent weeks had been weighed down by sluggish retail business after wholesale values skyrocketed to a record-high of $3.40/dozen in July. As those prices trickled down to the retail level, consumer interest faded...

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Aug 17 9:15 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: June Chicken Exports: A Mid-Year Perspective Check

Although the month-over-month (MoM) chicken export comparisons during June aren’t particularly revealing at first glance, it’s important to maintain a broad sense of perspective on just how far the chicken industry has come so far this year...

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Aug 15 9:34 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: What is driving the strength behind pork trim? Demand, supply, or both?

As we currently sit in the second week of August, prices of fresh 42%, 72% and 72% lean boneless picnic trim are historically elevated...

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Aug 12 9:12 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Remain Under the Weather

The latest export reading confirms what many players within the turkey industry already know: June was another lackluster month when it comes to outward movement...

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Aug 11 8:05 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Reviewing the Chicken Complex; CPI Update

This week in retail, we’ll take a deeper dive into the retail chicken landscape ahead of the approaching NFL season, which officially kicks off in four weeks.

Chicken currently ranks fourth in protein buying opportunities with 16.4%. Seafood, beef, and pork hold the top three spots, respectively.

Urner Barry’s Weekly Retail Feature Chicken Index is $2.96 per pound this week, up 10% from the 5-year average of $2.69 per pound. 

Within the chicken complex, boneless skinless breasts hold the most ad volume at 42.5%. Drumsticks are the next highest featured item with 15.5% of total chicken ads...

Full Story »
Aug 11 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Turkey Market Considerations

Given the ongoing strength that the turkey complex continues to exude here in early August, we thought it would be a good opportunity to dig down into some contributing factors which are playing a highly impactful role in shaping the current market landscape...

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Aug 5 8:00 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Sizing Up August, Back to School Needs 

With August now in full swing, households are eager to enjoy the final weeks of summer.

Labor Day weekend, which marks the unofficial end of the summer season, is four weeks away while the NFL season officially kicks off shortly after on September 8.

In some states, kids are returning to school in less than two weeks. Circulars are proactively promoting back-to-school staples including snacks along with breakfast and sandwich items—giving a boost to lunch meat sales...

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Aug 4 8:10 AM, UB Newswires


This Week in Retail: Wrapping Up July; Digesting the Latest GDP Data  

Wrapping up July, grocers are promoting fan-favorite grilling items like steaks, pork chops, and shrimp in an effort to encourage at-home cooking during the dog days of summer—a seasonally sluggish period for meat sales.

Seafood features make up nearly 33% of total protein ad volume this week, marking the fifth consecutive week that it has seized the top spot. Beef comes in second with 23%, closely followed by pork with 22%. Chicken claims 17.5% and eggs make up 1.3% of ad space, down from nearly 5% the week...

 

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Jul 28 8:57 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Are Domestic Lamb Prices Actually Weak, or Is It All Relative?

Heavy lamb carcass prices for the week of July 18, 2022 are at $383.5/cwt which is a 52 week-low and when comparing to the same week in 2021, a whopping 24% lower...

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Jul 28 8:55 AM, Urner Barry


Analysis: Turkey Cold Storage Holdings Maintain Seasonal Stride in June

With the latest release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report hot off the press, turkey market participants are eagerly digging into the figures as they assess the mid-year supply standing...

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Jul 28 8:49 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Why Have Pork Exports to Japan Decreased?

With the Japanese Yen weakening against the US dollar, it is no wonder that exports are well under year ago levels on a weekly and monthly basis for 2022...

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Jul 22 9:05 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Tom Production Slump: A Sign of the Times

As the dust surrounding HPAI gradually settles, turkey market participants are scouring the production stats in an attempt to hone their purchasing and selling strategy for the remainder of the year...

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Jul 21 9:40 AM, Urner Barry


The Current State of the Economy - Optimism or Recession?

For the past couple of months, the nation has been tuning in once a month at 8:30 am EST for the reading of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Each month, numbers have indicated levels of inflation not seen in decades. Headlines have grabbed the attention of everyone, causing concern and fear for potential recession. But how concerned should market participants be with the current state of the economy...

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Jul 21 8:22 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Extreme Heat and its Impact on Protein Demand

This week in retail, we'll take a look at the widespread heat across most of the country and its impact on protein demand. 

With excessive heat warnings currently in effect for more than 100 million people, consumers will be less likely to cook. This could potentially reduce retail meat sales, which normally slow around this time of year due to seasonal factors including a lack of major holidays following Independence Day until Labor Day. 

While the extreme weather could have a negative near-term impact on meat sales, demand for pork and beef appears to be outperforming seasonal expectations...

While the extreme weather could have a negative near-term impact on meat sales, demand for pork and beef appears to be outperforming seasonal expectations...

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Jul 21 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: European Egg Market Steady-But-Firm Amid High Input Costs, Tight Supplies

As is typical of this time of year with many Europeans traveling on summer holiday, contacts across the EU are reporting lackluster demand in consumer markets this week...

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Jul 18 9:59 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Export Tonnage Gets Big Boost from Mexico

On a month-over-month (MoM) basis, total turkey export volume realized a notable leap in May...

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Jul 15 8:00 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Consumer Spending in Question as Inflation Heats Up

Summer is heating up and so is inflation—clouding the outlook for consumer spending on food, travel, and beyond. 

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation climbed to 9.1% in June, more than what economists had anticipated. The latest figure was a nearly 41-year high and what some analysts considered to be a peak.

Increases in food and gasoline prices contributed to the relentless surge in inflation, which has elevated the cost of living and forced some households to reconfigure their spending habits...

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Jul 14 8:05 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Shell-Egg Prices Soar Past Record-High Levels on Strong Demand, Supply Constraints

After climbing to the highest level on record July 1, the US table-grade market continues to advance—albeit at a less accelerated pace than what was seen in the back half of June...

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Jul 12 9:17 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: The Changing Tide of Chicken Hatch

When it comes to chicken production, one of the more perplexing topics of conversation over the past year has been the hatch...

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Jul 11 9:46 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Shortloin Prices for July Highest on Record

The short loin entered the year at its highest seasonal level recorded since 1993 - around $600.00/cwt...

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Jul 8 8:28 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Tom Breast Meat: It Ain’t Over 'Til...

During these volatile times it is important to maintain a sense of perspective on the market’s current standing relative to the historic norm...

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Jul 7 9:10 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Travel Season and Foodservice Demand

Following Independence Day, major retail buying occasions are few and far between until Labor Day. While the dog days of summer typically slow retail sales, they can spark interest in retail’s counterpart—foodservice.

The peak travel season, which is roughly from June through August, is usually beneficial for the restaurant sector. This summer, however, there are several variables at play that will influence travel plans, including high gas prices.

According to AAA, the national average for gas ticked lower to $4.80 a gallon, down eight cents over the past week. The downturn was mainly due to falling demand. While demand has softened, it could pick up again as more people plan vacations and hit the road this summer...

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Jul 7 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


Analysis: Turkey Cold Storage: One Foot On and One Foot Off the Seasonal Path

From a month-over-month (MoM) perspective, the most recent cold storage figures through the end of May, generally fall in line with the seasonally anticipated norm...

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Jun 30 9:09 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: This Year's July Fourth Cookout Could be Costlier 

Consumers might sweat when shopping for July Fourth festivities since this year's cookout could be costlier than in years past.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation remains elevated at a multi-decade high with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rising 14.2% over the last 12 months.

Despite higher retail prices and squeezed budgets, most households are forging ahead with their Independence Day plans. According to the National Retail Federation, 84% of consumers plan to celebrate the Fourth this year.

Of those, 59% of people plan to ring in Independence Day with a cookout...

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Jun 30 8:42 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Soar to Six-Week High Amid Strong Demand, Reduced Outputs

With only two small commercial egg-laying farms impacted by high-path avian influenza in the month of May, it seemed as though the bird flu was largely in the rear view...

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Jun 27 10:15 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Birds-Eye Glimpse into Q3 Production Expectations

The most recent release of the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Report brings with it some signs of encouragement for players on the buying side of the negotiation table...

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Jun 27 8:36 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Thigh Meat Values Maintain Leg Up on Boneless Pork Hams

As we usher in the first days of summer, turkey market participants are consulting with the historic price charts as they attempt to refine their expectations for the season ahead...

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Jun 24 9:19 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Supermarkets Prep for July 4th

The Fourth of July marks the last major retail buying occasion of the summer until Labor Day. 

This year’s holiday falls on a Monday and the extended weekend could encourage consumer cookouts and gatherings.

Grocers are closely eyeing the forecast as record high temperatures persist in the Southern region of the nation this week. 

This week, beef claims almost 28% of total protein features this week. Seafood and pork each account for 22.2%, while chicken clocks in at 16.7%...

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Jun 23 9:50 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: April’s Chicken Exports Bring Hint of Seasonality

Total chicken export volume through the end of April, while noteworthy, generally forged along a well-worn seasonal path...

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Jun 21 8:00 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Seafood and Beef Lead Father's Day Ads

Feature ads for grilling favorites including steaks, chops, and ribs are abundant ahead of Father’s Day.

Seafood and beef lead Urner Barry's retail activity index this week, claiming 31.5% and 29.3% of ad space, respectively. Pork comes in with 23.6% of ad space and chicken features make up 9.3%. Egg features are up slightly from the week prior at 4.1%. 

Fresh/frozen filets make up the bulk of seafood ads at 30.5%. Cod is featured at $10.27 per pound on average, up 59% from last year. 4 oz. lobster tails run $29.58 per pound, up from $23.96 per pound in 2021...

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Jun 16 9:00 AM, UB Newswires


ANALYSIS: Boneless Breast Descent Seasonally Anticipated

It almost goes without saying that jumbo boneless breasts have been the central focus of chicken market participants lately, and with good reason...

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Jun 14 7:35 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Monthly Turkey Production Slips to Seasonal Low

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Given the array of distractions that turkey market participants continue to face this year, it’s easy to overlook some of the details that can prove to be significant...

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Jun 10 6:14 AM, Urner Barry







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