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ANALYSIS: Impact of HPAI and Metapneumovirus on Livability in the Turkey Industry

Issues with HPAI and metapneumovirus in the past couple of years have significantly impacted livability in the turkey industry. The current outbreak of HPAI began on February 8, 2022, when a commercial turkey flock in Indiana was confirmed to have contracted the virus. Since then, losses of commercial birds have been reported in thirty-four states and approximately 15.8 million commercial turkey breeders and meat birds have been affected. Losses due to HPAI are highest in the spring and fall through areas of active wild bird migratory traffic...

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Dec 11 11:03 AM, Expana



ANALYSIS: U.S. Beef Rib Pushing Towards All-Time Records

With year-end holidays approaching, the bone-in rib is once again front and center in the beef market. Over the past year, this item was largely kept at arm’s length as market participants contended with what appeared to be reserved consumer demand. Consequently, prices for the bone-in ribeye throughout the year lagged behind year-ago levels.

Fast forward to today, and prices have not only kept pace but have also surpassed last year’s high of $12.50/lb., currently...

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Dec 11 11:00 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Main Drivers Behind EU Retail Egg Prices in Q4 2024

According to the European Commission, medium/large egg prices averaged €2.28 per kilogram during October and November 2024, and are currently at €2.43 per kilogram, marking a 23.07% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 6.7% year-on-year rise. The surge in egg prices during Q4 2024 can be attributed to a combination of factors.

Firstly, the seasonal demand typical of Q4 has had an immediate effect on prices. This seasonal increase is particularly significant in a market where the EU faces limited self-sufficiency...

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Dec 11 10:58 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China’s Nov 2024 Meat Imports Break 15-Month Y-o-Y Decline Streak to 580,619 mt

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats rebounded to 580,619 metric tonnes (mt) in November 2024, ending a 15-month year-over-year decline streak, according to the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. 

Imports were higher by 8.6% or 23,619 mt month-on-month (m-o-m) ahead of the winter peak season.  

Meat consumption typically increases ahead of the cooler season, with a notable rise in demand for...

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Dec 11 10:55 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Trends for Ribs vs. Hams

With Christmas just two weeks away, this week’s retail rundown takes a closer look at two traditional holiday centerpieces: rib roasts and hams. These festive favorites have followed differing paths in the wholesale markets this year, potentially influencing their retail performance in the lead-up to the year-end celebrations.

The wholesale rib market began its seasonal ascent in the third quarter, gaining traction in early August. From August 1 through December 10, prices surged by 42 percent, far surpassing the 5-year average increase of 17 percent for the same period...

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Dec 11 9:50 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Australia's Nov 2024 Beef Exports Ease 8.6% M-o-M From Record Highs to 118,878 mt

Australia’s beef and veal exports in Nov 2024 saw an 8.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) decline, falling to 118,878 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF).

This 11,171 mt monthly decrease followed a record high back in Oct 2024, when exports reached 130,048 mt. In line with traditional patterns, this fall was led by lower shipments to key destinations, including the United States (US), Korea, and southeast...

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Dec 10 8:55 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Tariff-Driven Spike to Freight Rates Yet to Materialize

The re-election of US President-elect Donald Trump, on November 5, sparked speculation about the outlook for global trade, given the stringent tariff regime that he has stated he will impose. Some initial reactions expected the effects on international shipping and freight rates to be significant, with a short-term price spike resulting from US importers boosting their inventories before the tariffs come into effect. The results so far, however, have been more tepid than anticipated.

During his campaign, Trump indicated his intention...

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Dec 6 9:19 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: October Cold Storage Report, Chicken Inventories Continue to Deplete YoY

While more chicken was put up for several lines than was seasonally anticipated, cold storage inventories of nearly all lines with the exceptions of drumsticks and paws continued to be lower year-over-year (YoY). Additionally, total frozen holdings of chicken in the month of October were approximately 70.8 million pounds lower than the 5-year average. Considering that the year-to-date (YTD) total live weight is at the highest value ever recorded and October's live weights were at record-breaking levels...

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Dec 6 8:00 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: EU Shell Egg Prices Show Signs of Stabilization

Since early September, shell-egg prices have surged by 60.7%, driven primarily by robust retail demand. As the dominant distribution channel for eggs, the retail sector has absorbed a substantial share of available supply, leaving fewer eggs for breaking operations. Consumers continue to favor eggs as a cost-effective protein alternative, particularly as prices for other proteins, such as beef, have risen significantly throughout the year.

Seasonal factors have further bolstered demand. Cooler autumn weather has encouraged more home cooking, driving up egg consumption...

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Dec 6 8:00 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Decline Continues with 27.8% Drop in October Amid Tightening Supplies

Total turkey cold storage fell -27.8% month-over-month (MoM), continuing the downward momentum in the volume of turkey in warehouses. While following an average trendline, total frozen inventories of turkey have gradually moved from the thirteenth lowest value ever recorded for the month of January to the third lowest in October. In fact, market input suggests that some storage facilities are holding well below 50% of capacity. While this is likely not the case for all facilities since October’s total is...

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Dec 5 8:28 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Japan's Oct 2024 Beef Imports Rebound from 7-month Low to 43,937 Mt

Japan’s October 2024 beef imports bounced back strongly, rising by 15.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 43,937 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest statistics by Trade Statistics of Japan.

Recovering from September 2024’s seven-month low, this 5,760 mt surge was driven by higher tonnage from its major suppliers such as the United States (US), Australia, Canada and New Zealand, despite declines were noted from Mexico and Uruguay.

Earlier in summer, Japan’s beef market grappled with reduced...

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Dec 4 9:03 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: EU Dried Egg-White Market Navigates Evolving Dynamics and Challenges

In September 2024, the European Commission reported that EU dried egg white exports reached 11,459 tonnes, reflecting a slight 3.2% month-on-month decline from August. Despite this dip, cumulative exports for the year are up 23.92% compared to the same period in 2023, indicating strong overall growth. 

Both the liquid and dried egg white markets have experienced significant volatility in recent years.  In early December 2022, average prices for cage egg white powder reached a record high of 20.25 €/kg, prompting buyers to seek...

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Dec 4 8:58 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Diving into December Deals

With the year-end holidays soon approaching, shoppers are eagerly diving into December deals. Retailers aim to capitalize on the season's spending surge with enticing offers on everything from festive foods to decadent desserts, decor, and other holiday items. 

Consumer spending on winter holidays is projected to hit a record-breaking $902 per person this year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This figure marks a $25 increase from 2023 and surpasses the previous record set in 2019 by $16...

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Dec 4 8:10 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Holiday Features in Full Display

In the final stretch to Thanksgiving, turkey ads dominate protein advertisements this week with 29 percent, up from 11.8 percent the week prior and surpassing pork's 26.4 percent. Seafood ads come in at 20.2 percent, followed by beef at 16.4 percent. Chicken takes 6 percent, while eggs still have less than one percent of retail buying opportunities.

Fresh whole turkeys account for half of all turkey promotions, with frozen turkeys making up 40.5 percent. While turkeys take center stage, the holiday season also lifts demand for cold-weather comfort foods and convenient...

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Nov 27 4:12 PM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Shifting Retail Turkey Trends, Disease-Related Adjustments

So far this year we’re seeing a major decline in the number of fresh whole turkeys bought from retailers in Q4. Interestingly, this decreased call doesn’t look like it has much to do with the current price of turkey at retail. Additionally, price and distribution changes vary between the different size categories of turkeys, proving that not all turkey is created equal.

The changes to retail price and distribution of the larger turkeys (16-24 lbs. and >24 lbs.) are fairly straightforward. From the start of Q4...

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Nov 27 9:51 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S. Imported Beef Least Cost Formulation Effects on Mixed Trimmings 85% in Fall 2024

Throughout the course of October, Aus/NZ MXT 85 on the spot market dropped in value by $18/cwt after trading at $289/cwt levels at the end of September. Entering November, the number was at $271/cwt and has remained generally steady at that mark.

End users of boneless beef trim typically use different lean percentage items to formulate their finished products. Given this flexibility, buyers can select from different trim options based on price and specific...

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Nov 26 8:10 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Thanksgiving Bird Choices - Trends, Prices, and Consumer Preferences for Whole Chicken

Chicken isn’t what most people think of when they consider a Thanksgiving dinner. Nevertheless, there are consumers who will swap out a whole chicken for a whole turkey. A bird is a bird, after all. Some potential reasons include taste (some people prefer chicken), ease of handling, and serving size. Since chickens are smaller birds, they take less time to cook. It’s also much easier to find a pre-cooked rotisserie chicken than it is to find a pre-cooked whole turkey...  

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Nov 22 8:14 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Demand Outpaces Supply for Brazilian Beef

The Brazilian ”Boi Gordo” cattle price index reached BRL 344.20/15 Kg as of November 18 close, marking a year on year increase of 46%. According to Expanas Brazilian Beef Analyst, Augusto Eto, the increase is due to high demand from both domestic and export markets, a reduction in the supply of animals ready for slaughter and a favorable exchange rate with the Brazilian Real weakening approximately 18% against the U.S. Dollar since the beginning of the year.

Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)...

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Nov 21 7:52 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Cutout Dynamics

In 2024, the Mexican beef market experienced significant shifts, driven by fluctuating domestic and export opportunities. By mid-November, the total carcass value reached MXN 107.91/kg, marking steady price increases across most primal categories. These increases have been the result of consistent interest across all segments of the market, fueled by higher domestic consumption and increased exports. This dynamic has led to a generalized rise in primal values, ultimately pushing the overall cutout to... 

Ribs have emerged as the top-performing category, closing at MXN 134.49/kg, driven by... 

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Nov 21 7:49 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China’s Oct 2024 Beef Imports Rebound to 7-Month High at 237,264 mt

China's October 2024 beef imports rose to a 7-month high to 237,264 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Increasing by 8.7% month-on-month (m-o-m), October 2024’s imports rose by 19,066 mt from September 2024’s 5-month low. This rebound was primarily fuelled by stronger shipments from Brazil, its largest supplier, along with notable contributions from Uruguay and New Zealand.

Year-on-year (y-o-y), imports...

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Nov 21 7:46 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S Beef Tenderloin Holiday Trends

With Thanksgiving in view, it seemed to be a good time to give an update on beef tenderloins as the next slated holiday will be Christmas and New Years. Tenderloins have had a rough year when comparing prices year-over-year. On average, prices have tracked about 10% below year-ago levels for choice tenderloins. Speaking to the cost-conscious environment, the beef industry has found itself in this year. Fast-forward to today’s price, choice tenderloins currently sit at $15.75/lb. which is about 6% below year-ago levels for the same...

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Nov 20 8:34 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Turkey Takes the Spotlight

According to Circana data, fresh whole turkeys were featured at an average discounted price of $1.48 per pound last week, up from $1.27 per pound during the same period last year.

The most popular turkey sizes, 10–15 and 16–24 pounds, averaged $1.34 per pound, compared to $1.00–$1.10 per pound last year. These prices reflect pre-promotion rates and do not account for additional discounts or free turkey offers.

Whole turkeys are often used as loss leaders to increase holiday store...

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Nov 20 8:20 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Record September for U.S. Pork Exports as Markets Shift

The U.S. pork export market has taken center stage recently, with USDA data for September revealing a record-high export volume of 549 million pounds—the highest for this month in 54 years. This milestone reflects the U.S.'s growing strength in global markets, bolstered in part by declining European pork production, which has diminished their export presence.

Year-to-date, U.S. pork exports are up approximately 5% compared to this same period last year, though they remain slightly below 2021 levels...

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Nov 19 8:26 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Korea's Oct 2024 Beef Imports Climb to 9-Month High, In-Month Volumes Highest Since 1994

Korea’s October 2024 beef imports rose to the highest levels since January 2024, reaching 46,697 mt, according to the latest Korea Customs Service data.

Volumes surged by 21.0% (8,117 mt) month-on-month (m-o-m), fuelled by higher imports from its key suppliers, Australia and the United States (US).

In-month October 2024's figures were the highest on record since 1994, driven by subdued imports earlier in the year and a rush...

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Nov 19 8:24 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: September Chicken Exports Defy Trend with 1.8% MoM Growth

In the month of September, total chicken exports were up 1.8% month-over-month (MoM). This is interesting as the 5-year average MoM change is a decline of -4.2% from August to September.  The increased volumes resulted in September being the first month since February, when export levels were not at the lowest point since 2019. Part of the relatively large volumes of chicken exported were likely due to the value of chicken compared to other proteins in September...

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Nov 15 8:11 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Monthly Seasonal Turkey Export Volume Sets Stage for Holidays

From August to September, the total volume of turkey exported decreased month-over-month (MoM) by -6.4%, a slightly more prominent decrease than the 5-year average change of -2.9%. While there were some large MoM increases in export volumes to countries such as Panama, Guatemala, and Jamaica, they did little to sway the overall trend. The volume of U.S. turkey exported to Mexico was responsible for approximately 72.4% of the total export volume. With Mexico importing -8.9% less turkey than the month before, it's no surprise...

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Nov 14 8:07 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: This Year's Thanksgiving Dinner May Cost Less 

This week’s protein promotions spotlight seafood, which makes up 33.1 percent of all ads, with pork following at 25.6 percent and beef at 24.3 percent. Chicken features come in at 13 percent, while turkey ads saw a small increase to 3.8 percent, up from 3.3 percent last week but below the 5 percent seen two weeks prior.

Frozen turkeys make up 27 percent of all turkey ads, up 25.7 percent last week, with prices ranging between $2.79 and $5.00 discounted last week.

According to the Expana Thanksgiving Dinner Index 2024...

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Nov 13 9:16 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Soaring EU Egg Imports 

When looking at the first eight months of the year, import volume of shell eggs in the EU more than tripled in the last two years. Extra-EU imports increased by 234% from 12,826 MT in 2022 (Jan-Aug) to 42,889 MT this year (Jan-Aug). This represents 62.2 million euros so far for 2024, down 7% year over year, but up 170% since 2022. 

The main supplier of the EU for eggs is Ukraine, which has a free-trade agreement with the EU. Despite some quotas in place, Ukraine...  

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Nov 12 8:17 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: September USDA Data Shows Strong Growth in U.S. Pork Exports

The latest USDA export data for September paints a positive picture for the U.S. pork industry, with total pork exports reaching their highest levels in a decade. This impressive growth, a 7.2% surge compared to September of last year, is a continuation of a positive trend that began in mid-June.

Emerging markets in Latin America continue to be a significant driver of growth in U.S. pork exports.  Central and South America experienced impressive year-over-year increases of 30.1% and 43.2%, respectively.  Caribbean destinations such as the...

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Nov 12 8:15 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China’s Oct 2024 Meat Imports Extend 15-Month YoY Decline Streak, Reaching 534,675 mt

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats in October 2024 were recorded at 534,675 metric tonnes (m)t, based on the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

Imports dipped by just 1.1% m-o-m (-5,868 mt), falling for the second month, as firmer winter demand offset any significant declines.  

Volumes were also supported by its major supplier Brazil’s beef exports hitting record highs, but its poultry exports to China have...

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Nov 12 8:13 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Brazilian Beef Exports Rise 7.4% M-o-M in October, Heading for Unprecedent Annual Figures

Brazilian beef exports surged to a new record of 270,331 MT in October, reflecting a 7.4% increase from September's previous high at 251,749 MT, according to the latest data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. This volume also marks a significant 45.2% rise compared to the same month last year. Notably, Year-to-Date beef exports for 2024 have already surpassed the total volume exported in all of 2023, reaching 2,116,308 MT. If this strong pace continues...

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Nov 12 8:10 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Chicken Industry in Unseasonable Standoff Between Demand Patterns and Supplies

The chicken industry is engaged in a standoff between demand patterns and supplies. So far, the call for chicken this year has barely given up any ground, in a rather unseasonable manner.

The chicken index is a weighted average value composed of some of the lines in the chicken market including items like boneless breast meat and leg quarters. Since it is a formulation of several of the main components, it can be used as a rough indicator of market strength or weakness and seasonal trends...

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Nov 8 8:14 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Uruguay’s Beef Exports See 11.3% Monthly Rise in October, Yet Decline 11.9% Y-o-Y

In October 2024, Uruguay’s fresh beef exports reached 28,512 MT, based on the latest data from the Uruguayan National Customs Directorate. This is 11.3% higher than the previous month and marks a 11.9% drop Y-o-Y. On a YTD basis, cumulative exports now stand at 292,422 MT, up by 2.2% compared to the same period last year. Uruguay’s annual performance indicates resilience in export volumes, with exporters adjusting destination strategies in response to fluctuating demand and price conditions...

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Nov 8 8:11 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: EU Liquid Yolk Prices Hit Record Highs Amid Supply Crunch

The European Union's egg market continues to experience a significant imbalance between supply and demand. Retail demand has been relentless throughout much of this year, leaving few eggs available for breaking, while feedback indicates that egg production across the EU has struggled to meet the heightened demand.

The industry's output is being constrained by a combination of factors. Primarily, producers are grappling with the complexities and increased costs associated with the transition towards cage-free egg production systems, in line with evolving animal welfare standards. Additionally...

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Nov 7 8:13 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Imported Boneless Beef Trimmings from Argentina to the U.S. Hit All-Time High

According to the latest Meat Passed for Entry Report issued by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) released on November 1st, Argentina passed 2,019 MT of boneless trimmings into the United States on the week of October 21st. This marks a record high for Argentine imports to the United States. The last record high spike occurred in September of 2020 when 1,535 MT of boneless trimmings were imported from Argentina. Still, that is a 31.53% increase from the last spike to the most recent one... 

 

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Nov 7 8:08 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Market Faces Pressure as Price Hikes Cool Consumer Demand

Retail demand across the U.S. has grown increasingly varied this week, influenced by rising shelf prices and differing Thanksgiving preparation timelines among retailers. Over the past week, nearly all retail outlets have raised their shelf prices, reflecting last month’s more than 100% increase in wholesale values. However, these adjustments have been far from uniform. Most large-scale chains are pricing conventional large eggs around $3.00 per dozen, while smaller, regional stores are seeing prices surge above $4.00—and, in some cases...

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Nov 7 8:06 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Australia's Oct 2024 Beef Exports Hit Fresh All-Time High; YTD Exceeds 1 Million Mt

Australia’s beef and veal exports for October 2024 reached a fresh all-time high at 130,048 mt, according to the latest figures from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF).

While October 2024 export figures exceeded July 2024’s high of 129,998 mt by a narrow margin of 50 mt, they reflected a month-on-month (m-o-m) increase of 14.0% (+16,002 mt). This rise was driven by higher shipments to key destinations, including the...

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Nov 6 8:24 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S Choice Bone-In Ribs Rise into the Holiday Period

As the holiday season approaches, Choice bone-in ribs have returned to the conversation. Looking back, this item has shown consistent upward momentum over the past month. It started October at $9.24/lb., approximately 10% lower than its year-ago level. Since then, the price has steadily risen to its current value of $11.03/lb., or roughly a 19% increase, surpassing 2023 year-to-date price of $10.93/lb.

In a similar trend, 2023 also saw...

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Nov 6 8:21 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Put Your Turkey Where Your Mouth Is

This year’s per capita turkey consumption estimate is 13.9 lbs., a 9.0% decline from the 5-year average. In response, year-to-date (YTD) turkey slaughter is at a record low of 157.2 million, representing a 6.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY) and a 6.6% drop from the 5-year average. Notably, while both hen and tom harvest numbers are below the 5-year average, they have not decreased YoY. This trend reflects shifts in turkey production, driven by evolving consumption patterns...

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Nov 6 8:18 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Holiday Countdown Rapidly Winds Down

With Thanksgiving just three weeks away, the holiday rush is fueling retail traffic as shoppers stock up on essentials. This week, turkey promotions account for 3.3 percent of all protein ads, down from 5 percent the previous week. The number of grocery chains featuring turkeys also declined, with 39 chains participating, compared to 49 chains a week earlier.

Despite fewer promotions, fresh whole turkey sales rose week-over-week, reaching $1.3 million last week, up from $909,368 the week prior, according to Circana...

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Nov 6 7:57 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Argentina’s Beef Exports Rose Modest 3.0% in September, Still Marking a 44.5% Y-o-Y Surge

Argentina’s beef exports reached 70,806 MT in September 2024, according to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census. Although this figure shows a modest 3.0% M-o-M increase, it still remains 44.5% higher compared to the same period last year.

China continues to represent a significant portion of market share, absorbing 68.9% of total Argentina’s beef exports, equivalent to 49,521 MT. This represents a slight 2.4% drop compared to the previous month, but still...

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Nov 4 9:30 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Japan's Sept 2024 Beef Imports Plummets to 7-Month Low Amid High Inventory Pressure

Japan’s beef imports in September 2024 plunged 21.9% month-on-month (m-o-m) to a seven-month low, totalling 38,177 metric tonnes (mt), as reported by Trade Statistics of Japan.

At the lowest level since February 2024, this 10,707 mt decline was mainly led by lower volumes from its major suppliers, apart from Mexico. This monthly slowdown traces back to lingering challenges from Japan’s scorching summer, which curtailed foodservice consumption and led to inventory buildups across key regions such as Tokyo... 

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Oct 31 8:14 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Continues Descent

Keeping in line with August's overarching theme, September's latest public warehouse holdings report reveals an ongoing tug-of-war between historically low production levels and seasonally tepid demand for key items like turkey breasts. The most recent inventory report brought with it a modest 1.4%, or 6 million pound, uptick in total holdings when compared with the year prior. Despite this slight advance from 2023, at 427 million pounds, September’s reading still resides at the fourth lowest seasonal level in nearly three decades; highlighting this year’s 3% year-over-year (YoY)... 

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Oct 31 8:11 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Late-Season Push for Grilling Cuts

As October ends, beef and seafood promotions are neck and neck, each occupying about 25 percent of total advertising space. During the final week of "Pork-tober, pork features account for 20.8 percent of buying opportunities, closely followed by chicken at 20.6 percent.

Though the shift from grilling cuts to roasts has been in motion for a few weeks, a forecast of record warmth in parts of the central and eastern U.S. this week offers a last chance for backyard cooking before winter sets in.

This could spur late-season promotions...

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Oct 30 9:15 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Imports from Australia Soar, Domestic and Import 90s Gap Grows

The week of October 7th experienced 6,045 MT of boneless beef that cleared for entry into the United States, marking a significant 52-week high. This represents an impressive year-over-year increase of 53.5%. Australia plays a key role in the boneless beef market, exporting lean boneless beef to various countries, with the U.S. accounting for 32.6% of their exports, equating to 37,218 MT in September alone.

Even with more meat available on the market, the price of Aus/NZ...

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Oct 29 8:13 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Prices Surge to Record October Highs on Retail Strength, Bird Flu Cases

U.S. shell egg prices have surged to a record October high of $4.32 per dozen—a staggering 95% increase since the start of a rapid rally that began on October 10. This rise in prices comes as strong retail demand coincides with a fresh wave of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which has impacted layer populations and intensified the tight supply situation.

Retail demand has been exceptionally robust in recent weeks, spurred by scattered promotional activity and widespread price cuts...

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Oct 29 8:10 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Pork 42% Trim Outpaces Beef 50% Trim

When analyzing UB Pork 42% Trimmings and UB Beef 50% Fresh Chemical Lean Trimmings, both commonly used in hot dog and sausage processing, the weekly average price for pork 42s is trending about 26.2% higher than the weekly average price of beef 50s. This is due to limited supplies of pork 42 trimmings on the spot market, while beef 50s have been experiencing fully adequate to ample availability, with softer demand also noted.

Frozen pork trim supplies in cold storage have trended below year-ago levels throughout the...

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Oct 28 9:13 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Korea's 2024 Safeguard on Australian Beef Kicks In, 43 Days Earlier Y-o-Y

As of 24th October, Australian beef imports into Korea has exhausted its 2024 Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) volumes, according to the Korea Customs Service website.

Imports exceeding this volume now incur a tariff rate of 24.0% for the remainder of the year, up from the current rate of 10.6%. This activation occurred significantly earlier than last year’s 8th December 2023 trigger date, representing a difference of approximately 43 days.

Just earlier on 14th October 2024, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) has reported that Australia had...

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Oct 28 9:10 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Hang-gliding Chicken Thigh Meat

Thigh meat quotations started being recorded in November of 1997. Since then, in over two-thirds of the years, the quotation has decreased from Q3 to Q4. The last year in which quotations were higher on average in Q4 compared to Q3 was 2018 when they were higher by an average of 1%. In the past five years, there's been an average decline in value of approximately -26%, with annual average changes ranging from -6% in 2019 to -52% in 2022. As we enter Q4 of this year, market participants...

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Oct 25 8:44 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: New Zealand's Sept 2024 Beef Exports Tumble to 11-Month Low amid Seasonal Slowdown

New Zealand’s September 2024 beef exports plummeted to an 11-month low, recording at 29,110 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from Stats NZ. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline, with exports falling by 8.3% (-2,631 mt) compared to August 2024.

The lower tonnage saw reduced exports to key clients such as the United States (US), Japan and Korea, while increased allocations to Canada, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia helped offset further falls...

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Oct 24 8:19 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: A Turkey Balancing Act

The turkey industry as a whole continues to find itself at a crossroads, with cold storage numbers dwindling and slaughter and hatchery data similarly declining. While some of the slowdown in production is intentional, aiming to counter sluggish consumer demand, disease-related complications—both past and ongoing—remain a significant concern. Uncertainty surrounding future production has left many market participants on edge as the year-end approaches and 2025 looms.

Delving into the numbers, the latest USDA cold storage report showed total turkey inventories edging... 

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Oct 24 8:17 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Import and Export Dynamics YTD

From January to September 2024, beef imports in Mexico reached a total of 190,097 tons, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year. The United States remains the main supplier, with 112,974 tons accounting for 68.9% of total imports, an 8.1% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth highlights the ongoing importance of the U.S. market as a key source of supply for Mexico, especially during times of economic fluctuations that have affected trade decisions.

In addition to imports from the United States, South America has... 

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Oct 24 8:14 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: UB Choice Beef Cutout Outperforming Year Ago Levels

The Urner Barry Choice Cutout has been relatively tame this year when compared to last year’s moves. The peaks and troughs have been fairly muted as prices remain sticky and at elevated levels from a historical perspective. This has largely been driven by the lower middle meat prices as buyers opted for more cost-conscious beef items. For example, when looking at export ribs or tenderloins through the summer months – they predominantly tracked below year-ago levels and by quite a good margin...

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Oct 24 8:11 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Korea's Beef Imports Rise 4.8% Y-o-Y in September, Australia Surpasses US as Top Supplier

Korea’s beef imports rose to 38,580 metric tonnes (mt) in September 2024, reversing last month’s losses, according to the latest figures from the Korea Customs Service.

Volumes rose by 1.2% (+452 mt) from the previous month, bolstered by increased imports from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. However, declines in quantities from the United States, driven by a reduction in herd size, limited overall growth.

Annually, total imports increased by 4.8% (+1,768 mt), representing the strongest growth since the beginning... 

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Oct 23 8:22 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Tuning in to Turkey

Retail promotions for seafood continue to dominate the protein category this week, capturing nearly a third of ad circular space (32 percent). Beef and pork follow, taking up 23 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively. Chicken is up slightly from the previous week at 16 percent. Egg ads held steady at about 3 percent.

Several items were featured at lower prices compared to 2023 last week, with chicken leg quarters averaging $1.55 per pound, 5 cents cheaper than last year. Fresh pork loin prices were down by 2 percent...

 

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Oct 23 8:00 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China’s Beef Imports Sink 5.7% M-o-M in September; Tonnage Lowest Since 2020

China’s September 2024 beef imports slumped 5.7% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 218,199 metric tonnes (mt), according to the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Although August 2024 saw a mild recovery, volumes in September 2024 dropped by 13,136 mt, with declines recorded across all major suppliers except Australia and Bolivia. September 2024’s in-month tonnage was also the lowest since 2020, underscoring the ongoing challenges faced by the world’s largest beef importer.

Annual figures painted...

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Oct 22 8:22 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Breaking out the Chicken Production Roadmap

From a seasonal shift in buyer outreach, to heavy live weights, and even hurricanes, there is no shortage of variables which are keeping chicken market participants on their toes here in mid-October.

Given the volatile and somewhat unpredictable nature of the market lately, players are finding that historic seasonality isn’t always the best indicator of the road that lies ahead. This scenario has prompted some participants to break out the production “roadmap” in an attempt to hone their expectations for the future. Perhaps one of the best indicators at...

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Oct 21 8:07 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Turkeys Stuck at Home, Exports Drop in August

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, total turkey export volumes were down -10% in August, while total export values were up 4%. These numbers could suggest a combination of a few factors. First, export buyers may have been buying less overall production, but the production they were purchasing may have been of a higher value than the previous year.Second, in the case of Mexico, an average YoY increase in the strength of the Mexican peso to the U.S. dollar may have supported Mexican buyers. Last, but certainly not less...

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Oct 18 7:53 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Eggs Rule the Roost During Baking Season 

As October reaches its midpoint, many homes are filled with the irresistible aromas of freshly baked goods, marking the onset of the holiday baking season.

This seasonal shift benefits the egg case as eggs find their way into breads, cookies, pastries, pies, and more. Also, more consumers are reaching for hot breakfasts as the weather turns colder, which further boosts egg demand.

Data from Circana shows that the average retail feature price for large, white Grade A eggs averaged $3.72 per dozen last week...

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Oct 16 9:22 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China’s Sept 2024 Meat Imports Slump 4.3% M-o-M; Ends Two-Month Growth Streak

China’s total meat imports, including variety meats fell in September 2024, amounting to 540,543 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest preliminary figures from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. 

On a monthly basis, imports slipped 4.3% (-24,559 mt), partially affected by the shorter working month due to the observance of the Mid-Autumn festivities. 

Annually, imports plummeted by 9.2% (-54,457 mt) in September, marking the eighth consecutive month since the start of the year...

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Oct 16 8:09 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: The U.S 2024 Ups and Downs of Inside Rounds

As cooler temperatures bring in roasting season, let's take a look at a favorite, inside rounds. This item has seen a year of heightened volatility, which started back in Q1. They have broken all-time record highs for March at $3.76/lb; this is 35% above year-ago levels and roughly 40% over the 5-year average for this time.  If we look back to the middle of June, inside rounds saw a sharp price increase. This item rose 15% in about a month...

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Oct 15 11:38 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Chicken Export Volumes in August

Total chicken exports were up 3.5% from July to August, compared to a 5-year average month-over-month (MoM) change of 4.6%. Of the twenty countries listed in the USDA’s monthly import/export report, thirteen of them had increased MoM export volumes in August, but only seven of them were up year-over-year (YoY). This aligns with the year-long trend of lower export volumes in which the current year-to-date (YTD) value of 4.4 billion lbs. is -8.6% lower YoY and is...

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Oct 15 11:34 AM, Expana


 

ANALYSIS: US Pork Exports Rise 6.2% Year-Over-Year in August, Led by Central & South American Gains

On Wednesday, the USDA released their August import/export trade data. The latest report reveals mixed results for U.S. pork exports in August. While overall exports saw a slight decline of 1.1% compared to July, they continued to increase by 6.2% year-over-year.

Notable success was achieved in Central America, where exports surged by 5.9% from the previous month and a remarkable 31.3% from last year, driven by strong demand in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, and Guatemala...

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Oct 15 11:32 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Upward-Trending Turkey Drum Quotations

Quotations for domestic East coast frozen tom drums were established in January of 1989. Since then, there have only been four years in which the quotations have not retreated from the first of the year to the current date. These years were 2011, 2013, 2018, and 2024.

None of these years have boasted a record-high seasonal quotation at any point of the year, and they don't have the most dramatic increases from the first of the year to the current week. In fact, only...

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Oct 11 8:12 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S. Dressed Steer Weights Continue in Record High Fashion

As of September 16th, dressed steer weights continue to push all-time high levels for the past two consecutive weeks currently at 948 lbs. Year-over year there has been a percent change of 3.27%. Since July, dressed steer weights have increased by 3.6%. The previous record was set less than a year ago, at the end of 2023, when dressed steers averaged 942 lbs. in December. Over the past three years, weights have consistently exceeded the ten-year average across all months. The current period... 

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Oct 10 8:21 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: EU Egg Imports and Exports Show Growth in the First Half of 2024

The EU continues to be a net exporter of eggs and egg products, even as imports have risen significantly in recent years. H1 2024 figures indicated that the EU egg imports reached 57,078 tonnes, edging up by 21.81% from January to June 2023. The rise in imports was mostly driven by a strong domestic demand. As consumers grapple with high living expenses, many are trading down to more affordable protein options, making eggs a particularly appealing choice. Despite this import growth...

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Oct 10 8:17 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Brazilian Beef Exports Hit a New Record High in September, 8.4% MoM and 17.4% YoY.

The Brazilian fresh beef (frozen and chilled) exports totaled 251,749 MT in September, according to the latest data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat. This sets a new record, surpassing the previous high from just two months ago, when Brazil shipped 237,268 MT of fresh beef overseas. September volume accounts for a monthly 8.4% increase and is 17.4% higher compared to the same period last year. On a year-to-date basis, Brazil has exported 1,845,638 MT of fresh beef...

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Oct 10 8:14 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S. Dressed Steer Weights Continue in Record High Fashion

As of September 16th, dressed steer weights continue to push all-time high levels for the past two consecutive weeks currently at 948 lbs. Year-over year there has been a percent change of 3.27%. Since July, dressed steer weights have increased by 3.6%. The previous record was set less than a year ago, at the end of 2023, when dressed steers averaged 942 lbs. in December. Over the past three years, weights have consistently exceeded the ten-year average across all months... 

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Oct 9 8:15 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China Activates Australian Beef’s Safeguard Mechanism in Surprise Move

China has announced that Australian beef will now be subjected to a 12.0% Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff, as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) of 178,418 metric tonnes (mt) has been triggered, according to a statement from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

In a surprising move, the official announcement came on Sunday, October 6th, during China's seven-day "Golden Week" holiday, which began on October 1st. This period, marking the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic, is one of the country's longest public holidays...

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Oct 9 8:11 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Australia's Sept 2024 Beef Exports Slide 6.4% MoM; China-bound Shipments Climb

Australia beef and veal exports in September 2024 eased further to 114,046 metric tonnes (mt), the latest data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF) indicated.

Hitting the 2nd highest in-month figure since our records began in 2010, September’s exports surpassed the drought year’s highs back in 2019, but narrowly missing 2015’s record highs of 118,432 mt by 4,386 mt.

Month-on-month (m-o-m), volumes slipped another 6.4% (-7,751 mt) following July 2024’s all-time highs that was recorded at...

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Oct 8 8:12 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: EU Shell Eggs Firming up as Consumption Progresses

The EU is experiencing a firm shell egg market, as it is common to see at this period of the year. However, market players on the supply side report that the overall egg production in the region is not following the strong progression of the demand from consumers and from processors.

According to Eurostats, graded shell eggs in the EU increased value by 6.9% between week 34 at 1,936€/MT (in the middle of August) and week 39 at 2,069€/MT (at the end of September)...

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Oct 8 8:09 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Unusual Trend Ignites Price Surge in Chuck Rolls

In January, Chuck Rolls entered the year at $3.85/lb, gaining in price to $4.57/lb by the end of the month, or roughly a 19% change. The price jump can be attributed to winter weather events that caused plant closures and disrupted the supply chain. A bottom of $3.50/lb was seen in the beginning of May as production normalized back in April, putting Chuck Rolls back on track with historical trends. In late August, prices started to increase, whereas in the past, prices...

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Oct 7 8:06 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Uruguay Beef Exports Shed 16.9% in September, Still Up by 4.0% YTD

According to the latest data released by the Uruguayan National Customs Directorate, Uruguay’s fresh beef export has reached 25,625 MT in September 2024, marking a 16.9% decline compared to the previous month, and 13.7% drop YoY. On a YTD basis, beef exports totaled 263,910 MT, which is 4% higher than last year’s 253,847 MT.

China continued to be the primary destination for beef exports in September, accounting for 10,076 MT, or 39.3% of the total. This figure represents a reduction of nearly 20% compared...

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Oct 7 7:58 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Holdings in August

Despite a slight retreat in demand for several domestic lines during August, frozen inventory remained well below last year’s level, fueled in part by an active call from the export arena. Now, in October, these factors are starting to resurface and play a major role in current market dynamics. Total chicken in frozen inventory was down -9.0% year-over-year (YoY), which positions August’s inventory at the third lowest seasonal level over the past ten years. All individual categories, with the exceptions of drums and paws, were also down on a YoY basis...

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Oct 4 8:17 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S. Beef Cold Storage Hits a 52-Week Low

According to the latest USDA beef cold storage report, the total volume of beef in cold storage has experienced a significant decline in August, with an almost 2% drop month-over-month. This decline has brought the current storage volume to its lowest level in three years. Notably, boneless beef has seen a decrease of 1.13%, while beef cuts have experienced a more pronounced reduction of 7.48%. This considerable decline in beef cuts suggests that the overall change in total beef inventory is closely aligned with the trends...

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Oct 3 8:11 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: U.S. Egg Prices Stabilize After Sharp Decline, Amid Strong Canadian Demand, Retail Uptick

Friday marked the end of a four-week decline in U.S. shell egg prices, during which Midwest Large fell by a staggering 51.1%, settling at $2.12 per dozen. This drop came amid weak retail demand and increasing production levels. Throughout the summer, many of the nation’s largest retailers had employed eggs as a loss leader, boosting unseasonably strong demand as inflation-conscious consumers sought affordable, high-protein food options.

Summer is typically a period of reduced production, as egg producers cycle...

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Oct 3 8:07 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown:  Port Strike Sends Shockwaves Throughout Supply Chain 

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports officially began once the calendar turned to October, following unsuccessful contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).

The strike's impact is being felt throughout the supply chain, causing significant disruptions in the flow of goods ahead of the rapidly approaching holiday season. 

In a statement released on Tuesday, USMX stated that its current offer includes a nearly 50% wage increase. In response, ILA said it has rejected USX's offer "because it fails to address...

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Oct 2 8:12 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Japan's Aug 2024 Beef Imports Dips 0.9% M-o-M; Australia and New Zealand Lead Yearly Gains

Japan’s August 2024 beef imports slipped by just 0.9% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 48,884 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest data from Trade Statistics of Japan.

Marking the fourth consecutive month below the 50,000 mt threshold, the pace of import growth was eroded by Japan’s blistering summer conditions and a weak yen, which has contributed to a slowdown in the dining-out sector.

Compared to the same period last year, imports grew a healthy 7.0%...

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Oct 2 8:05 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Korea Poised for Early Activation of Safeguard Mechanism on Australian Beef Amid US Supply

Australian beef imports into Korea could face a tariff rate increase of 24.0% as the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism is expected to activate earlier than in previous years. Korea's increasing reliance on Australian beef amid dwindling US supply has long suggested an earlier activation of the safeguard tariffs. 

Under the Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement (KAFTA), the safeguard volume for this year is set at 188,437 metric tonnes (mt). Any imports exceeding this safeguard volume limit in 2024 will incur a tariff rate of 24.0%...

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Oct 1 8:12 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Mexico’s Livestock Trade Deficit Persists Amid Volatile USD:MXD

The Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA) reported that Mexico's livestock trade balance remains in deficit, driven by increasing domestic prices that spurred record beef and pork imports. Between January and July 2024, meat imports totaled 1.67 million tonnes, a 6.3% increase from the same period in 2023.

Homero García de la Llata, president of Mexicos National Confederation of Livestock Organizations (CNOG), pointed out that several problems and weaknesses are affecting livestock farming in Mexico. These include low productivity, limited financing, and a lack of innovation and technology....

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Sep 30 8:13 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Imported Cattle Shake Up US Beef Market

The U.S. boxed beef market has had its fair share of trials and tribulations this year and they only seem to be growing as unfamiliar trends continue to emerge. One of those trends that has largely been absent through the last couple years during the contraction in the U.S. cattle herd, is imported cattle from Mexico and Canada. Fast forward to the present day, this trend is alive and well and has been causing some uncertainty in the market as both sides of the aisle try to gauge the...

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Sep 27 11:29 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Production Shortfall Drives New Zealand's Aug 2024 Beef Exports to 10-Month Lows

New Zealand’s August 2024 beef exports totalled 31,741 metric tonnes (mt), hitting the lowest levels since October 2023, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. The volume fell by 18.2% (-7,072 mt) compared to the previous month.

Marking a 10-month low, and falling for the third consecutive month, this decline was primarily driven by New Zealand's two key markets, the United States (US) and China, with smaller drops also seen in markets like Canada, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. In-month volumes was also...

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Sep 26 8:20 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Whole Turkey Quotations From the Start of Q4 to Thanksgiving

Five-year average trends show that quotations for fresh and frozen whole-body turkeys have historically increased by minute amounts between the outset of October through Thanksgiving, regardless of sizing. By the time that the fourth quarter arrives, most whole turkeys for the holidays are already spoken. Still, there are usually buyers who opt to stock up during the weeks immediately preceding Thanksgiving. This is especially true of fresh offerings as evident by the 5-year average quotation change of 0.36% and 0.96% for fresh hens... 

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Sep 26 8:18 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Onwards to October

With October nearing, the shift in retail meat features from grilling cuts to roasts is picking up pace. More households are utilizing their ovens and crockpots, making it prime time for hearty ingredients like chuck roasts and pork shoulders.

Still, warmer weather lingers in some regions. For those with favorable grilling conditions, shoppers may find deals on items like steaks, ribs, and pork chops as retailers work to move any extra inventory. 

This week’s retail buying opportunities show seafood continuing to lead, making up 26.9% of protein advertisements, followed by pork at 24.7%, beef at 21.2%...

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Sep 25 8:30 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Imports and Exports Overview

During 2024, the Mexican beef market experienced its lowest levels of exports to the United States in the past three years. This was a consequence of the strengthening of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, which began at the end of 2022 and continued to strengthen throughout 2023 and the first two quarters of 2024. This led to a widespread pattern where bids from U.S. buyers were simply unattractive to Mexican sellers, who preferred to place their product in the domestic market, which offered higher figures...

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Sep 25 8:07 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China on the Brink of Imposing 12.0% Tariff on Australian Beef Amid Rising Imports

China is on the verge of triggering the Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG) mechanism for Australian beef imports, with only 21,968 metric tonnes (mt) remaining before a 12.0% Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff is enforced.

By the end of August 2024, imports had reached 156,450 mt, nearing the 178,418 mt threshold. Most market players now anticipate that the safeguard volume mechanism will be triggered by early October, though delays in port clearance due to Typhoon Bebinca may push this to mid-October...

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Sep 24 8:15 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Korea's August 2024 Beef Imports Defy Decade-Long Trend, Falls 1.2% M-o-M

Korea's August 2024 beef imports hit 38,128 metric tonnes (mt), slipping 1.2% (-448 mt) month-on-month (m-o-m), according to the latest figures from the Korea Customs Service.

While the monthly decrease was modest, it marked the first decline since 2014. Historically, August imports tend to rise from July in anticipation of the major holiday, Chuseok. 

This drop was primarily driven by reduced supply from the United States, impacted by a herd size crunch, although it was partially offset by higher...

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Sep 24 8:12 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Chicken Production Outlook for Q4

The USDA is forecasting a year-over-year (YoY) decrease in beef and turkey production for Q4 of this year and a YoY increase in production of pork and chicken. Ready-to-cook (RTC) broiler production is expected to increase by 3.57% YoY. Beginning ten weeks prior to the outset of Q4 to the most current data, egg sets have been up by 2.62% to 5.04%. Increases in broiler chick placements from the middle of August, seven weeks prior to the start of Q4, are slightly less dramatic with values ranging

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Sep 23 8:20 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Egg White Powder Exports to Japan See Declining Revenues Despite Stable Volumes

Since 2023, the volume of dried egg white exported to Japan by the EU has plateaued at levels 26% lower than two years ago in 2021. The average of quarterly volumes exported in 2021 is 2105 MT, vs 1464 MT in 2023, and 1593 MT in 2024 (first and second quarters). Exports are now more stable and even slightly higher in 2024, compared with last year. However, in terms of revenue, values have been declining rather steeply since Q1 2023...

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Sep 23 8:17 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China’s Aug 2024 Beef Imports Up 7.4% MoM Before Holidays; Economic Woes Sink YoY Growth

China’s August 2024 beef imports rose 7.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 231,335 metric tonnes (mt), according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China.

Monthly increases were recorded at 16,013 mt, representing the second consecutive rise since June's 13-month low, fuelled by increased shipments from Brazil, its top supplier.

The higher import figures were in line with market expectations ahead of the winter season. Historically, demand for red...

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Sep 23 8:14 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Pork Cutout Continues its Gradual Decline

The pork cutout value has been steadily decreasing since the end of July, closing at $93.24/cwt on September 13th. This decline, while aligning with historical seasonal trends, represents a 12.1% decrease since July 29th and a slight dip below last year’s value. The decrease in value can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increased production levels, which are currently 2.4% higher than this time last year.

The week of September 16th saw a continuation of this downward trend, with the total cutout value falling 4.2% below...

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Sep 23 8:11 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Pork Exports Surged to 10-Year Highs in July

The USDA's latest pork import/export report reveals a robust trend in U.S. pork exports, reaching a decade-high volume of 566,659 thousand pounds in July 2024. This marks an 8.1% increase from the previous month and a significant 12.3% year-over-year growth.

Mexico, a key trade partner, saw a substantial increase in U.S. pork imports, with a 25.6% month-over-month and 25.9% year-over-year surge, potentially driven by HPAI restrictions impacting US poultry exports, which has since begun to ease... 

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Sep 19 8:00 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Going All-Out for Autumn

Fall is just around the corner, with the official start of autumn this Sunday, September 22. As cooler weather sets in and travel plans wind down, grocers are ramping up their offerings of seasonal favorites to align with the change in consumer preferences. 

According to the Expana Retail Activity Index, seafood continues to lead for the fourth week in a row, making up 30% of total protein ads. Beef and pork are close behind, each at around 25%, while chicken accounts for 14%. Eggs represent 2.8% of retail opportunities, and turkey has 2.3%...

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Sep 18 8:15 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: The State of 81% Coarse Grinds Amid Summer's End

With summer coming to a close, let’s take a look at one of our summer favorites, coarse 81% grinds. This past year 81% coarse grinds have seen very stout levels of demand as consumers largely opted for cost-conscious beef options. This has given the item an uplift of nearly 36% year-to-date to $3.18/lb. This is approximately 16% higher than last year and 29% above the 3-year average during the same period. In 2023, we saw typical post Labor Day...

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Sep 18 8:12 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: A Deep Dive into Chicken Export Volume for July

July chicken export volumes were down -2.0% from June, which is a period in which the 5-year average change is an increase of 1.1%. Despite this, the amount of chicken moved to Mexico, the Philippines,and Taiwan, the first, second, and fourth top importers of U.S. chicken respectively, were up by 15.6%, 47.3%, and 28.4%. Conversely, the volumes sold to the third and fifth top importers of U.S. chicken, Cuba and Canada, were down by -7.5% and -16.0%, respectively.

The 5-year average month-over-month (MoM)...

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Sep 16 8:06 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: China’s Aug 2024 Meat Imports Rise 4.7% Ahead of Winter; YTD Figures Up 2.7%

China's meat imports, including variety meats, increased for the second consecutive month in August 2024 to reach 565,102 metric tonnes (mt), according to the latest preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

This 4.7% monthly growth (+25,189 mt) followed July 2024’s recovery from three consecutive months of declines during the second quarter of 2024. 

As China emerges from a scorching summer, importers have been actively replenishing stocks in preparation for the winter season. Meat consumption typically...

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Sep 13 9:56 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: A Deep Dive into Chicken Export Volume in July

July chicken export volumes were down -2.0% from June, which is a period in which the 5-year average change is an increase of 1.1%...

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Sep 13 8:06 AM, Expana


ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Close Month On High Note

For those involved in the export sector of the turkey industry, 2024 has been anything but smooth sailing. Geopolitical tensions, fluctuating exchange rates, and variable international demand patterns have all contributed to a challenging landscape for players to navigate. Despite these difficulties, July's export figures showed some positive signs for marketers...

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Sep 12 7:11 AM, Expana


The Retail Rundown: Rising Feature Volume for Roasts

This month marks an ideal blend of seasons for the retail sector, as grilling cuts continue to be featured along with autumn favorites like hearty roasts and everything pumpkin. The shift to cooler weather is already being reflected in increased promotions for pork and beef roasts, which have earned a larger share of circular ad space this week. 

In the beef category, roasts now account for 26.4 percent of total ad space, up from 17 percent the previous week. Steak promotions eased to 36.9 percent, a nearly 10-point decline from...

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Sep 11 8:37 AM, Expana







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