ANALYSIS: Threat of HPAI Creates Unpredictability in Turkey Supply

If there is one word which can be used to summarize the general mindset of turkey market participants, it is “uncertain”...

REPORTER: Despite Steep Costs, Consumers Still Spending at Deli

This article was originally featured in the Spring 2023 Edition of Urner Barry’s Reporter magazine. Want a FREE subscription? Click HERE.

It would be an understatement to say consumers are laying out more money than ever before. Inflation and all that comes with it have dominated the news cycles for months and the end doesn’t necessarily appear near—at least at the time of this publication. This uptick, coinciding with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), has shocked many in the turkey industry for the better part of the year...

REPORTER: Is Genetically Modified Chicken the Answer to HPAI?

This article was originally featured in the Spring 2023 Edition of Urner Barry’s Reporter magazine. Want a FREE subscription? Click HERE.

For the poultry industry, the past year has been anything but “routine.” This is undoubtably a statement which market participants have heard ad nauseum throughout the past several years. However, for once COVID, and the array of challenges that have come along with it, is not the sole focus of this statement, but rather highly pathogenic avian influenza. HPAI, for short, remains an urgent matter for...

The Retail Rundown: Marching Towards Spring Demand

March is here and the countdown to spring is rapidly winding down. The transition to warmer weather coincides with increased retail buying occasions as consumers and grocers alike prepare for celebrations including March Madness, St. Patrick’s Day, and Easter.

One week into lent, seafood feature volume has advanced to 40.5% this week, up from 33% the week prior. Currently, the fresh/frozen fillet category accounts for nearly 31% of seafood features. 

According to its annual survey, the National Retail Federation (NRF) found that a record 61% of consumers plan to celebrate St. Patrick's...

National Chicken Council Calls on FDA to Take Measures to Alleviate Egg Prices

The current outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI or “bird flu”) in the United States and resulting egg price increases have caused the chicken industry to closely examine a policy that forces the broiler industry (broilers are chickens raised for meat) to destroy perfectly nutritious and safe eggs. The National Chicken Council today petitioned FDA to reverse or modify this policy.

“In light of the pressure the current HPAI outbreak is putting on the nation’s egg supply, FDA should...

The Retail Rundown: Super Bowl Shines Bright in Otherwise Dull Demand Period

Eager fans are gearing up for Super Bowl weekend as the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles prepare to face off in Arizona. Grocers are equally enthusiastic to capture additional sales during what is an otherwise dull demand period for retail and red meat sales in general.  

The National Chicken Council (NCC) estimates Americans will eat a record-shattering 1.45 billion chicken wings during this year's Super Bowl LVII festivities. This is up 2% from last year and equates to about 84 million wings, said the NCC. Urner Barry's Ryan Doyle took a closer look at NCC's latest annual Chicken Wing Report.  

A decline in wing prices along with the return to in-person celebrations, whether it be at home or at a restaurant, is expected to drive the uptick in wing consumption...

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Case Confirmed in a Commercial Turkey Flock in Iowa

The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) have confirmed a positive case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Buena Vista County, Iowa.

The affected site is a commercial turkey flock.

Commercial and backyard flock owners should prevent contact between their birds and wild birds. Sick birds or unusual deaths among birds should be immediately reported to state or federal officials...

UB Consulting: Why the Rise in Egg Prices?

The rise in grocery prices has been a topic of conversation for much of the past year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index report highlighted this. In 2022, the average year-over-year increase in the food-at-home index was 11.4 percent. More recently, however, heightened attention has been drawn to the price of eggs at retail—a situation that has left many consumers scratching their heads, asking why eggs are so costly nowadays.

For many consumers, egg prices were of little thought – a relatively inexpensive...

How 10 of the Most-Read Stories of 2022 Capture the Year in Food

Urner Barry, the leading provider of food industry market intelligence for over 160 years, reviews the top stories of 2022—a year which featured countless disruptions and global shocks to supply and demand.

Featuring coverage of the Russia-Ukraine war; high path avian influenza, inflation, trade, and more. Read the most popular stories  published exclusively by Urner Barry in the past year...

This Week in Retail: Meat and Poultry Highlights of 2022

2022 has been another challenging year for retailers and participants throughout the supply chain, who have had to contend with the effects of drought, disease pressure, persistent inflation, and logistical issues—just to name a few.

In the face of rising wholesale prices, retail prices for several popular protein options including fresh ground beef, boneless skinless chicken breast, and bacon have hit fresh record highs this year, raising concerns among grocers over slowed consumer purchasing.

As we prepare to ring in the new year, a tight supply situation and...

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Detected in Sanilac County Backyard Flock

Following an investigation by the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD), the Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory has detected the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a backyard poultry flock from Sanilac County. This is the first detection in Sanilac County. Even in cold winter temperatures, bird owners still need to actively protect their flocks from HPAI.

“Despite the cold winter temperatures, HPAI can remain viable in the environment and not all wildlife species susceptible to the virus migrate out of the state...

European Food Safety Authority: Avian Influenza Cases in Poultry and Water Birds on the Rise

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) cases recorded in Europe among poultry and water birds have risen since the summer according to the latest report by EFSA, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and the EU reference laboratory (EURL).

Cracks in the European Egg Market Deepen as the Bird Flu, Inflation Rage On

Confronted with what some have labeled a “winter of discontent” amid soaring inflation, consumers throughout the European Union appear to be leaning more heavily on eggs as a low-cost source of protein. But while eggs by nature are more affordable than competing proteins, part of their recent affordability is somewhat artificial in nature—not reflective of current market conditions but rather the result of retailers’ unwillingness to pay farmers a sustainable price for their eggs—or to pass those prices on to consumers.

The situation is much the same in the UK. According to Farming UK, the British Free Range Egg Producers Association advised retailers last November and again this February that its members could not continue to produce eggs at a loss and requested a 40p/dozen increase. They warned that there would be a scarcity of eggs going into the Christmas period if the situation was not addressed, but their pleas were largely disregarded. And now, the very shortages they warned of have come to pass. Faced with limited supplies, and in some cases, empty shelves, some of the UK’s largest retailers—Tesco, Lidl and Asda among them—are restricting customers to 2-3 boxes of eggs per shopper, a move that is expected to last beyond Christmas.

This Week in Retail: Grocers Deck the Halls With December Deals

Deck the halls with… wait—it’s December already?

Now that Thanksgiving is yesterday's news, retailers are honing in on Christmas and other holiday demands. This month, several seasonal factors shape both the wholesale and retail markets.

For beef, wholesale prices typically take on a softer undertone towards the year's end once holiday orders are filled. Last year, Urner Barry's Choice cutout value shaved off nearly 10% from the beginning of November to the tail end of December. 

On the contrary, retail prices typically climb to some of their highest levels of the year late this month. This is largely due to increased demand for high-quality beef cuts around the holidays...

This Week in Retail:  Turkey is the Talk of the Town

Now that November is within reach, the floodgates have opened for holiday campaigns. The protagonist of the show—turkey—has garnered widespread attention and snatched headlines this year as tight supplies and high prices could make procuring the Thanksgiving centerpiece more challenging. 

However, some retail outlets continue to utilize turkey as a loss leader and have already begun promoting minimum in-store spending deals for heavily discounted or free turkeys, along with hams and other staples for the holiday.

Consumer spending at retail this year is under question as household bills remain high in the face of inflation—forcing some consumers to reconfigure their budgets...

PODCAST: Risk management, hedging, HPAI, and more with CIH!

This week on market digest, host Laura Zinger speaks with Dan Roque of CIH! They discuss hedging and risk management in the protein markets, pork items filling the gaps in the poultry market due to HPAI, a supply side outlook, and more!

This Week in Retail: Egg Features Lag; CPI Data Outpaces Expectations

As the leaves change color and cooler weather begins to settle in, more households utilize their ovens for baking and slow-cooking ahead of the holiday season.

Typically, retail egg sales see a boost during the fall since more consumers cook breakfast at home more often. In addition, autumn baking draws attention to the egg case as shoppers stock up on ingredients for cookies, bread, pies, and more.

However, overall egg promotional activity is currently described as non-existent across all regions. Eggs account for 2% of retail buying opportunities this week, up slightly from the week prior but down considerably from this week in 2021...

ANALYSIS: EU Shell-Egg Prices Climb to New Record-Highs as Bird Flu Decimates Flock

The European shell-egg market rose to record-high levels this week, as strong demand and inadequate supplies continue to leave processors with limited access to raw material...

Avian Influenza: Unprecedented Number of Summer Cases in Europe

An unprecedented number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus detections were reported in wild and domestic birds from June to September in Europe, according to the latest overview by EFSA, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and the EU reference laboratory. In previous years, no cases or only a few cases were detected during the summer period. The overall 2021–2022 HPAI season has produced the largest epidemic so far observed in Europe.

Between 11 June and 9 September 2022, 788 HPAI virus detections were reported in 16...

Just Ahead of Thanksgiving, Record Turkey and Egg Prices Indicate Strain on Poultry Sector

The effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), inflation and more in turkey and other poultry markets

Fall has arrived and Thanksgiving is just around the corner. As many begin planning for the holiday meal, one of the questions being asked is, “Will there be enough turkeys to go around for Thanksgiving?” There are many factors fueling this question. High prices, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and inflation have garnered attention from consumers and media nationwide. This Market Intel will address the current issues influencing the turkey industry and what consumers can expect as we edge closer to Thanksgiving and beyond...

PODCAST: Forecasting the egg market, market volatilty, and being a good listener

This week on Market Digest Laura sits down with Andrei Rjedkin from Urner Barry’s Consulting division. Andrei is an esteemed economist who leverages his expertise to create incredible forecasts for the egg market. In this episode, he enlightens us on how he helps create those forecasts, market volatility creating a great learning environment, and solutions UB Consulting can create for your business!

Canada's Restrictions on Poultry and Birds from the United States

The below information is intended for travelers and cross-border shoppers only. It does not apply to commercial shipments of products or by-products that enter Canada with documentation from official veterinarians from the United States. Commercial importers should refer to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency's (CFIA) Automated Import Reference System (AIRS) for more information.

Due to the occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the CFIA has restricted the import of fresh, raw, or unprocessed poultry products or by-products from any U.S. state currently experiencing an outbreak...

HPAI Findings Have Waned, but Not Stopped

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) hasn’t completely disappeared from the U.S. landscape, although the number of incidents has declined dramatically over the summer.

As the data from the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) in the accompanying charts show, detections in both commercial and backyard flocks have dwindled since peaking in April and May, respectively...

This Week in Retail: Sizing Up August, Back to School Needs 

With August now in full swing, households are eager to enjoy the final weeks of summer.

Labor Day weekend, which marks the unofficial end of the summer season, is four weeks away while the NFL season officially kicks off shortly after on September 8.

In some states, kids are returning to school in less than two weeks. Circulars are proactively promoting back-to-school staples including snacks along with breakfast and sandwich items—giving a boost to lunch meat sales...

Poultry Quarterly Q3 2022: Bullish Outlook With Strong Demand and Big Operational Challenges

The outlook for the global poultry industry for 2H 2022 is bullish, despite significant cost pressures and other operational challenges.

Demand is strong, with most countries open after adopting ‘living with Covid’ strategies. This is pushing up poultry demand, while global pressure on spending power and high food prices are also leading consumers toward the lowest-priced meat protein: poultry.

The biggest challenge for the industry is on the operational side. Feed and energy prices are higher than they have been in many years...

This Week in Retail: This Year's July Fourth Cookout Could be Costlier 

Consumers might sweat when shopping for July Fourth festivities since this year's cookout could be costlier than in years past.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation remains elevated at a multi-decade high with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rising 14.2% over the last 12 months.

Despite higher retail prices and squeezed budgets, most households are forging ahead with their Independence Day plans. According to the National Retail Federation, 84% of consumers plan to celebrate the Fourth this year.

Of those, 59% of people plan to ring in Independence Day with a cookout...

This Week in Retail: A Look at Easter Features; CPI Data Released

This week in retail, the discussion is heavily centered on the economy, rising inflation with the latest CPI growth, and the bird flu outbreak in the U.S. Meanwhile, Easter week has arrived and grocers are looking to capture additional spending on the holiday.

USDA estimates that nearly 24 million poultry birds have died from high-path avian influenza since the virus strain was identified in February. The virus has since spread in wild birds to 32 states.

Another outbreak was confirmed Tuesday afternoon in a flock of roughly 2 million commercial layers in Nebraska, lifting the total number of commercial laying hens affected by HPAI to about 20 million head. 

Urner Barry's Midwest large benchmark quotation is currently at $2.84/dozen, down from $3.01/dozen the week prior but a staggering 176% above a year ago. At retail, large eggs on feature for the holiday week are highlighted at nearly $3/dozen while X-large averages $2.86/dozen...

This Week in Retail: Bird Flu and The Easter Outlook

Easter promotions are in full motion and households are gathering staples including eggs, ham, and lamb for the upcoming holiday.

According to a survey by the National Retail Federation, consumers plan to spend an average of $169.79 this year on Easter-related items, with food accounting for the largest spending category. The collective spending on the holiday is forecast at $20.8 billion, down slightly from $21.6 billion last year.

With HPAI spreading throughout the country, consumers are beginning to see higher prices for shell eggs. Roughly 13 million layers have been impacted by the current outbreak—the country’s worst since 2014-2015—while over two million commercial turkeys have fallen prey to the virus...

UB Consulting: The Rise of HPAI Cases and the Possible Effect on Egg Prices 

The egg market has experienced increased volatility in pricing with the reemergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The virus was first redetected in December 2021 in Indiana with a turkey flock but has now spread to various layer farms across the United States. Although producers are taking precautions, market participants fear that the outbreak may rival the impacts of the HPAI outbreak in 2015 that led to a significant supply shock...

Cal-Maine Foods Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 Results

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. reported results for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 (thirteen weeks) and 39-week period ended February 26, 2022.

Net sales in the third quarter of fiscal 2022 increased 33.0 percent to $477.5 million compared to $359.1 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. The Company reported net income of $39.5 million, or $0.81 per basic and diluted common share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2022, compared to net income of $13.5 million, or $0.28 per basic...

Statement on HPAI in Jennie-O Turkey Store Supply Chain

Jennie-O Turkey Store announced today that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in its supply chain. The issue currently involves one farm operation in Minnesota.

Migratory waterfowl have been the primary carriers of HPAI, ultimately exposing domestic poultry to the virus. While farms supplying turkeys to Jennie-O Turkey Store have not had any confirmed cases until now, many regions, producers and companies have been impacted since February. Cases have included numerous chicken and turkey commercial farms, as well as smaller backyard flocks...