This Week in Retail: Grocers Deck the Halls With December Deals

Deck the halls with… wait—it’s December already?

Now that Thanksgiving is yesterday's news, retailers are honing in on Christmas and other holiday demands. This month, several seasonal factors shape both the wholesale and retail markets.

For beef, wholesale prices typically take on a softer undertone towards the year's end once holiday orders are filled. Last year, Urner Barry's Choice cutout value shaved off nearly 10% from the beginning of November to the tail end of December. 

On the contrary, retail prices typically climb to some of their highest levels of the year late this month. This is largely due to increased demand for high-quality beef cuts around the holidays...

This Week in Retail:  Turkey is the Talk of the Town

Now that November is within reach, the floodgates have opened for holiday campaigns. The protagonist of the show—turkey—has garnered widespread attention and snatched headlines this year as tight supplies and high prices could make procuring the Thanksgiving centerpiece more challenging. 

However, some retail outlets continue to utilize turkey as a loss leader and have already begun promoting minimum in-store spending deals for heavily discounted or free turkeys, along with hams and other staples for the holiday.

Consumer spending at retail this year is under question as household bills remain high in the face of inflation—forcing some consumers to reconfigure their budgets...

PODCAST: Risk management, hedging, HPAI, and more with CIH!

This week on market digest, host Laura Zinger speaks with Dan Roque of CIH! They discuss hedging and risk management in the protein markets, pork items filling the gaps in the poultry market due to HPAI, a supply side outlook, and more!

This Week in Retail: Egg Features Lag; CPI Data Outpaces Expectations

As the leaves change color and cooler weather begins to settle in, more households utilize their ovens for baking and slow-cooking ahead of the holiday season.

Typically, retail egg sales see a boost during the fall since more consumers cook breakfast at home more often. In addition, autumn baking draws attention to the egg case as shoppers stock up on ingredients for cookies, bread, pies, and more.

However, overall egg promotional activity is currently described as non-existent across all regions. Eggs account for 2% of retail buying opportunities this week, up slightly from the week prior but down considerably from this week in 2021...

ANALYSIS: EU Shell-Egg Prices Climb to New Record-Highs as Bird Flu Decimates Flock

The European shell-egg market rose to record-high levels this week, as strong demand and inadequate supplies continue to leave processors with limited access to raw material...

Avian Influenza: Unprecedented Number of Summer Cases in Europe

An unprecedented number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus detections were reported in wild and domestic birds from June to September in Europe, according to the latest overview by EFSA, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and the EU reference laboratory. In previous years, no cases or only a few cases were detected during the summer period. The overall 2021–2022 HPAI season has produced the largest epidemic so far observed in Europe.

Between 11 June and 9 September 2022, 788 HPAI virus detections were reported in 16...

Just Ahead of Thanksgiving, Record Turkey and Egg Prices Indicate Strain on Poultry Sector

The effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), inflation and more in turkey and other poultry markets

Fall has arrived and Thanksgiving is just around the corner. As many begin planning for the holiday meal, one of the questions being asked is, “Will there be enough turkeys to go around for Thanksgiving?” There are many factors fueling this question. High prices, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and inflation have garnered attention from consumers and media nationwide. This Market Intel will address the current issues influencing the turkey industry and what consumers can expect as we edge closer to Thanksgiving and beyond...

PODCAST: Forecasting the egg market, market volatilty, and being a good listener

This week on Market Digest Laura sits down with Andrei Rjedkin from Urner Barry’s Consulting division. Andrei is an esteemed economist who leverages his expertise to create incredible forecasts for the egg market. In this episode, he enlightens us on how he helps create those forecasts, market volatility creating a great learning environment, and solutions UB Consulting can create for your business!

Canada's Restrictions on Poultry and Birds from the United States

The below information is intended for travelers and cross-border shoppers only. It does not apply to commercial shipments of products or by-products that enter Canada with documentation from official veterinarians from the United States. Commercial importers should refer to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency's (CFIA) Automated Import Reference System (AIRS) for more information.

Due to the occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the CFIA has restricted the import of fresh, raw, or unprocessed poultry products or by-products from any U.S. state currently experiencing an outbreak...

HPAI Findings Have Waned, but Not Stopped

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) hasn’t completely disappeared from the U.S. landscape, although the number of incidents has declined dramatically over the summer.

As the data from the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) in the accompanying charts show, detections in both commercial and backyard flocks have dwindled since peaking in April and May, respectively...

This Week in Retail: Sizing Up August, Back to School Needs 

With August now in full swing, households are eager to enjoy the final weeks of summer.

Labor Day weekend, which marks the unofficial end of the summer season, is four weeks away while the NFL season officially kicks off shortly after on September 8.

In some states, kids are returning to school in less than two weeks. Circulars are proactively promoting back-to-school staples including snacks along with breakfast and sandwich items—giving a boost to lunch meat sales...

Poultry Quarterly Q3 2022: Bullish Outlook With Strong Demand and Big Operational Challenges

The outlook for the global poultry industry for 2H 2022 is bullish, despite significant cost pressures and other operational challenges.

Demand is strong, with most countries open after adopting ‘living with Covid’ strategies. This is pushing up poultry demand, while global pressure on spending power and high food prices are also leading consumers toward the lowest-priced meat protein: poultry.

The biggest challenge for the industry is on the operational side. Feed and energy prices are higher than they have been in many years...

This Week in Retail: This Year's July Fourth Cookout Could be Costlier 

Consumers might sweat when shopping for July Fourth festivities since this year's cookout could be costlier than in years past.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation remains elevated at a multi-decade high with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rising 14.2% over the last 12 months.

Despite higher retail prices and squeezed budgets, most households are forging ahead with their Independence Day plans. According to the National Retail Federation, 84% of consumers plan to celebrate the Fourth this year.

Of those, 59% of people plan to ring in Independence Day with a cookout...

This Week in Retail: A Look at Easter Features; CPI Data Released

This week in retail, the discussion is heavily centered on the economy, rising inflation with the latest CPI growth, and the bird flu outbreak in the U.S. Meanwhile, Easter week has arrived and grocers are looking to capture additional spending on the holiday.

USDA estimates that nearly 24 million poultry birds have died from high-path avian influenza since the virus strain was identified in February. The virus has since spread in wild birds to 32 states.

Another outbreak was confirmed Tuesday afternoon in a flock of roughly 2 million commercial layers in Nebraska, lifting the total number of commercial laying hens affected by HPAI to about 20 million head. 

Urner Barry's Midwest large benchmark quotation is currently at $2.84/dozen, down from $3.01/dozen the week prior but a staggering 176% above a year ago. At retail, large eggs on feature for the holiday week are highlighted at nearly $3/dozen while X-large averages $2.86/dozen...

This Week in Retail: Bird Flu and The Easter Outlook

Easter promotions are in full motion and households are gathering staples including eggs, ham, and lamb for the upcoming holiday.

According to a survey by the National Retail Federation, consumers plan to spend an average of $169.79 this year on Easter-related items, with food accounting for the largest spending category. The collective spending on the holiday is forecast at $20.8 billion, down slightly from $21.6 billion last year.

With HPAI spreading throughout the country, consumers are beginning to see higher prices for shell eggs. Roughly 13 million layers have been impacted by the current outbreak—the country’s worst since 2014-2015—while over two million commercial turkeys have fallen prey to the virus...

UB Consulting: The Rise of HPAI Cases and the Possible Effect on Egg Prices 

The egg market has experienced increased volatility in pricing with the reemergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The virus was first redetected in December 2021 in Indiana with a turkey flock but has now spread to various layer farms across the United States. Although producers are taking precautions, market participants fear that the outbreak may rival the impacts of the HPAI outbreak in 2015 that led to a significant supply shock...

Cal-Maine Foods Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 Results

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. reported results for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 (thirteen weeks) and 39-week period ended February 26, 2022.

Net sales in the third quarter of fiscal 2022 increased 33.0 percent to $477.5 million compared to $359.1 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. The Company reported net income of $39.5 million, or $0.81 per basic and diluted common share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2022, compared to net income of $13.5 million, or $0.28 per basic...

Statement on HPAI in Jennie-O Turkey Store Supply Chain

Jennie-O Turkey Store announced today that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in its supply chain. The issue currently involves one farm operation in Minnesota.

Migratory waterfowl have been the primary carriers of HPAI, ultimately exposing domestic poultry to the virus. While farms supplying turkeys to Jennie-O Turkey Store have not had any confirmed cases until now, many regions, producers and companies have been impacted since February. Cases have included numerous chicken and turkey commercial farms, as well as smaller backyard flocks...

This Week in Retail: Steak Features See Boost from Warmer Weather; Eyeing HPAI

Sunday marked the official start of spring. For retailers, that means grilling season is rapidly approaching, and with it—the opportunity for increased meat sales.

Steak features surged this week, accounting for 50.5 percent of total beef ads—up 16 percentage points from the week prior. Feature volume for roasts, meanwhile, has decreased, falling from 38.2 percent last week to 23.2 percent this week.

This week in retail, the steak complex averages $8.12 per pound, up 12.8 percent from a year ago. Boneless strip steaks are widely featured at grocery outlets across the nation and average $11.68 per pound, up 36 percent from a year ago. Top sirloin steaks are up 3.3 percent YoY at $5.64 per pound while bottom round steaks clock in at $5.54 per pound, up a whopping 68.4 percent from this week last year...