Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q1 2020: Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks

Rising disease pressures continue to challenge the global market and will remain the major change driver in global animal protein in 2020, according to Rabobank’s latest Pork Quarterly titled ‘Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks.’

“Although the severity of African swine fever’s (ASF) impact is subdued in some regions, the scope of the disease has expanded over recent months,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Animal Protein Analyst. “The ramifications in 2020 will lead to continuous caution on production expansion in some regions and higher import demand on the global balance sheet.” Several ongoing, regional trade-deal discussions will...

CFIA Increasing Canada's Preparedness for African Swine Fever

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) is pleased to announce that the University of Saskatchewan's Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization-International Vaccine Centre (VIDO-InterVac) will work with African swine fever (ASF), further supporting Canada's preparedness strategy by increasing research capacity.

This complements ongoing collaborations between the CFIA and VIDO-InterVac aimed at developing and testing vaccines and antivirals for ASF – a deadly and fast spreading viral disease that is killing millions of pigs worldwide and could...

African Swine Fever Detected in Romania

According to the World Organization for Animal Health, approximately 24,600 pigs are to be culled and 11 deaths have already occurred after African swine fever was found on a farm in Braila, Romania. Authorities confirmed the presence of the disease at a farm located in the town of Gulianca. Immediate precautions were taken and all pigs were quarantined, but outbreaks remain in other parts of the county. African swine fever has affected many farms in Braila. In 2018 and 2019, over...

REPORTER: One Year Update on African Swine Fever

August marked the one-year anniversary of when the world became aware of the African Swine Fever outbreak in China. Just since this May, African Swine Fever has spread to...

Virulent Newcastle Disease Cases on the Rise in California

According to a report from the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, six new cases of virulent Newcastle disease were reported in California during the week beginning December 13th and ending December 19th. As of December 27th, the USDA has confirmed 470 premises in California as infected with the disease, including 262 in Riverside County, 158 in San Bernardino County, 46 in Los Angeles County, 1 in Ventura County, 1 in Alameda County, and 1 in San Diego County. The USDA has also confirmed 1 infected premises in Utah County, and 1 infected premises in Coconino County, Arizona.

APHIS added that it is essential for all poultry owners to follow biosecurity practices to help protect their birds from infectious diseases. These steps include washing hands and scrubbing boots before and after entering a poultry area, cleaning and disinfecting tires and...

NPPC Applauds U.S. House Passage of Ag Inspectors Funding

The U.S. House of Representatives approved an additional $19.6 million in funding for more agricultural inspectors at land, air and sea ports to prevent African swine fever (ASF) and other foreign animal diseases (FAD) from entering the United States. This funding, included in the fiscal year 2020 Department of Homeland Security appropriations bill, is a top priority for the National Pork Producers Council.

“For more than a year, NPPC has advocated for an increase in the number of agricultural inspectors at our borders,” said NPPC President David Herring, a pork producer from Lillington, N.C. “We applaud the House, especially Reps. Vela, Thompson, Peterson, Axne, Carbajal, Gonzalez, Costa, Rouzer and Fortenberry, for approving an essential provision to reduce the risk of ASF and other FADs and to...

Rabobank: Poultry Quarterly Q1 2020

The outlook for global poultry in 2020 is slightly more positive than it was in 2019, when markets suffered from relative oversupply. A key driver of the gradual recovery will be ongoing strength in trade flows to Asia in order to supply African swine fever-affected markets such as China, Vietnam, South Korea, and the Philippines. These trade flows will be positive for dark-meat prices, though they will be subject to increasing volatility. Improved beef prices (the main substitute for fresh poultry), stable global average feed prices, and more balanced supply will also all support the gradual recovery. The downside is that global whole-bird and breast-meat markets will remain pressured and have limited price upside.

African swine fever (ASF) will increasingly push chicken expansion in Asia in 2020. This will help fill the gap in local protein markets affected by ASF, but it also...

U.S. Pork Can Reduce Overall U.S. Trade Deficit with China by Nearly Six Percent

Securing zero-tariff access to China for U.S. pork would be an economic boon for American agriculture and the country, according to the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). Based on an analysis by Iowa State University (ISU) Economist Dermot Hayes, NPPC says unrestricted access to the Chinese chilled and frozen market would reduce the overall trade deficit with China by nearly six percent and generate 184,000 new U.S. jobs in the next decade. NPPC today launched a digital campaign to spotlight the importance of opening the Chinese market to U.S. pork as trade negotiations continue.

“Were it not for China’s tariffs that are severely limiting access to American goods and other restrictions, including customs clearance delays, U.S. pork could be an economic powerhouse, creating thousands of new jobs, expanding sales and dramatically slashing our nation’s trade deficit. China’s actions would...

Rabobank: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand

Agricultural commodities were heavily impacted by trade wars, African swine fever, and erratic weather in 2019. According to the RaboResearch report "Outlook 2020: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand," many of these factors will remain key for agri commodity prices in 2020.

In 2019, agri commodity markets were impacted by several unprecedented incidents and uncommonly severe conditions. China's hog herd declined significantly, as a result of African swine fever (ASF). This drastically weakened demand for feed and, combined with the US-China trade war, resulted in a significant slowdown in the global soybean trade.

Meanwhile, record US corn- and soybean-planting delays drove corn prices from three-year lows to six-year highs within a few weeks. Then, improved...

Rabobank's Global Protein Outlook for 2020

In 2020, global animal protein faces an uncertain world, but opportunities can still be found. African swine fever dominates the outlook, having generated unprecedented change in 2019 – and we expect more in 2020. Trade disputes and sustainability are other notable challenges in the global animal protein complex. But there are also opportunities in global animal protein, such as recovery from ASF, winning on sustainability, and investing to secure ongoing trade flows.

Global Summary

African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the outlook for 2020 – as it has done during 2019 – and will pull down overall growth, as well as bring uncertainty to...

China’s Recovery from African Swine Fever: Rebuilding, Relocating, and Restructuring

African swine fever (ASF) has already caused huge herd losses and led to soaring pork prices in China in 2019. We believe the disease will continue to spread in the country in the coming years. However, we expect the pace of herd loss to slow down, due to industry participants’ reactions and policy changes. Restocking will likely take around five years, but hog herd levels may find it difficult to recover to pre-ASF levels.

“In addition to the direct impact on the hog herd, ASF will reshape the development of China’s hog supply chain in the coming years,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at Rabobank. “During the rebuilding process...

National Pork Board Study Defines China’s Growing Need For Protein

A new report from the National Pork Board digs into the growing short- and long-term protein needs facing China and how U.S. pork can position itself to meet that demand. The new report, Pork 2040: China Market Assessment, also reveals the impact that African swine fever (ASF) is having on both China’s short- and long-term protein needs and how the Chinese pork industry and supply chain will change as a result.

The research study was conducted by Gira, a global research firm, using Pork Checkoff dollars and funds from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services Emerging Markets Program (EMP). It outlines critical insights that exporters of U.S. pork can use now to position themselves for long-term success in the...

Pork Quarterly Q4 2019 – Producers Remain Cautious on Expansion as Risks Outweigh Rewards

Global pork prices continue to rise, as protein shortfalls intensify competition for a shrinking supply, according to Rabobank’s Pork Quarterly Q4 2019.

Pork prices have hit record highs in some regions, while trade barriers continue to limit the upside in the US and Canada. prices will continue to increase through Q4 2019 and into 2020, as markets work to balance supply and demand. “Despite rising economic incentives, we expect a limited global production response, as environmental and regulatory constraints, along with the threat of African swine fever (ASF), constrain the industry’s ability to expand,” according to...