U.S. Pork Can Reduce Overall U.S. Trade Deficit with China by Nearly Six Percent

Securing zero-tariff access to China for U.S. pork would be an economic boon for American agriculture and the country, according to the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). Based on an analysis by Iowa State University (ISU) Economist Dermot Hayes, NPPC says unrestricted access to the Chinese chilled and frozen market would reduce the overall trade deficit with China by nearly six percent and generate 184,000 new U.S. jobs in the next decade. NPPC today launched a digital campaign to spotlight the importance of opening the Chinese market to U.S. pork as trade negotiations continue.

“Were it not for China’s tariffs that are severely limiting access to American goods and other restrictions, including customs clearance delays, U.S. pork could be an economic powerhouse, creating thousands of new jobs, expanding sales and dramatically slashing our nation’s trade deficit. China’s actions would...

Rabobank: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand

Agricultural commodities were heavily impacted by trade wars, African swine fever, and erratic weather in 2019. According to the RaboResearch report "Outlook 2020: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand," many of these factors will remain key for agri commodity prices in 2020.

In 2019, agri commodity markets were impacted by several unprecedented incidents and uncommonly severe conditions. China's hog herd declined significantly, as a result of African swine fever (ASF). This drastically weakened demand for feed and, combined with the US-China trade war, resulted in a significant slowdown in the global soybean trade.

Meanwhile, record US corn- and soybean-planting delays drove corn prices from three-year lows to six-year highs within a few weeks. Then, improved...

Rabobank's Global Protein Outlook for 2020

In 2020, global animal protein faces an uncertain world, but opportunities can still be found. African swine fever dominates the outlook, having generated unprecedented change in 2019 – and we expect more in 2020. Trade disputes and sustainability are other notable challenges in the global animal protein complex. But there are also opportunities in global animal protein, such as recovery from ASF, winning on sustainability, and investing to secure ongoing trade flows.

Global Summary

African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the outlook for 2020 – as it has done during 2019 – and will pull down overall growth, as well as bring uncertainty to...

China’s Recovery from African Swine Fever: Rebuilding, Relocating, and Restructuring

African swine fever (ASF) has already caused huge herd losses and led to soaring pork prices in China in 2019. We believe the disease will continue to spread in the country in the coming years. However, we expect the pace of herd loss to slow down, due to industry participants’ reactions and policy changes. Restocking will likely take around five years, but hog herd levels may find it difficult to recover to pre-ASF levels.

“In addition to the direct impact on the hog herd, ASF will reshape the development of China’s hog supply chain in the coming years,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at Rabobank. “During the rebuilding process...

National Pork Board Study Defines China’s Growing Need For Protein

A new report from the National Pork Board digs into the growing short- and long-term protein needs facing China and how U.S. pork can position itself to meet that demand. The new report, Pork 2040: China Market Assessment, also reveals the impact that African swine fever (ASF) is having on both China’s short- and long-term protein needs and how the Chinese pork industry and supply chain will change as a result.

The research study was conducted by Gira, a global research firm, using Pork Checkoff dollars and funds from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services Emerging Markets Program (EMP). It outlines critical insights that exporters of U.S. pork can use now to position themselves for long-term success in the...

Pork Quarterly Q4 2019 – Producers Remain Cautious on Expansion as Risks Outweigh Rewards

Global pork prices continue to rise, as protein shortfalls intensify competition for a shrinking supply, according to Rabobank’s Pork Quarterly Q4 2019.

Pork prices have hit record highs in some regions, while trade barriers continue to limit the upside in the US and Canada. prices will continue to increase through Q4 2019 and into 2020, as markets work to balance supply and demand. “Despite rising economic incentives, we expect a limited global production response, as environmental and regulatory constraints, along with the threat of African swine fever (ASF), constrain the industry’s ability to expand,” according to...

Rabobank: A Global Update on African Swine Fever 

While African swine fever continues to devastate pig herds and production in China, the focus is now shifting to other parts of Asia, given recent outbreaks in the Philippines, South Korea, and Timor-Leste, according to the latest African Swine Fever Global Update by RaboResearch.

The spread of ASF in Asia, outside of China, has captured attention

“The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) across Asia are likely to be just as challenging as they have been in China, and we expect to see herd and production losses growing as we move into 2020,” says Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist - Animal Protein. “At the same time, price levels in China – for pigs and pork, as well as for other proteins – keep climbing, and...

Agriculture Groups Urge USDA to Quickly Establish Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccine Bank

Representatives of the National Pork Producers Council, the National Milk Producers Federation, the National Corn Growers Association and Iowa State University today called on the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to move as quickly as possible to establish a Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) vaccine bank.

At a press conference today, these groups recognized the steps USDA has taken to establish the bank, but called for expedient use of mandatory funding included in the 2018 Farm Bill to purchase the volume of vaccines required to effectively contain and eradicate an FMD outbreak. Currently, the USDA, which has prescribed vaccination for dealing with an FMD outbreak, does not have access to...

Mike Hits the (Ara)mark: Reliable Data Sources, Aramark's Innovation, and ASF

This week Laura interviews Mike Banas, Global Cost Forecasting Manager at Aramark. They discuss Aramark's new offerings at sports stadiums, how he selects reliable data, African swine fever, and Laura's favorite - french fries...

EU Beef Exports to Korea Resume After Almost 20 Years

After almost 20 years, the Republic of Korea lifted its import restrictions on beef and beef products from some European Union Member States. Producers from Denmark and the Netherlands are the first ones to be able to resume exports.

Commissioner for trade, Cecilia Malmström, said: “Trade isn't just about doing trade deals. After many years of hard work this announcement means that Dutch and Danish farmers gain a new market to sell their beef. Once again the EU is delivering for our agricultural sector.”

Commissioner Vytenis Andriukaitis, in charge of health and food safety, welcomed this announcement, stressing that “this is another sign that trade partners acknowledge that the battle against BSE has been won and...

National Turkey Federation Testifies on Capitol Hill 

Today, Ron Kardel, Vice Chairman of the National Turkey Federation, testified before the Senate Agriculture Committee on Capitol Hill. Kardel updated the Committee on the state of the turkey industry, including topics such as exports, disease prevention and response, immigration, and research concerns. Kardel began with thanking the Committee for the opportunity, informing those at the hearing that there were more than 244 million turkeys raised in the United States last year. Kardel added that the USDA projects 5.8 billion pounds of turkey production to take place this year. The turkey industry generates 441,000 jobs, and in order to support these jobs, Kardel explained that policies coming out of Washington must maintain America's ability to thrive. Kardel spoke on behalf of the turkey industry when he expressed the anticipation of working with Congress and the Committee to address these issues.

Kardel mentioned the importance of exports to the turkey industry, stating that expanded trade would lead to significant growth and reducing uncertainty is imperative. Therefore, Kardel strongly urged Congress to pass the USMCA this fall, as this should not be a partisan issue. Kardel mentioned that the turkey industry has a fantastic relationship with...

Rabobank: Poultry Q4 2019 Outlook 

Global poultry markets are expected to see some recovery in the coming months. However, this will be under fragile conditions. Key concerns are the ongoing oversupply situations in many global markets, like the EU, US and South Africa. Actually, only disease-affected China and Mexico, and Brazil (due to the combination of supply reduction and improved export demand), are performing relatively well. Other markets are suffering from oversupply.

Therefore, more disciplined supply should be the key to returning to profitability for the global poultry industry in 2H 2019. Notable positives are the expected ASF-related strength in pork prices, and the limited feed price upside risks, given the relatively good feed grain supply position expected in...

Pork Producers Urge Congress to Ratify USMCA and Support Measures to Prevent Foreign Animal Disease

Congressional ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), allowing the U.S. pork industry to maintain zero-duty market access to two of its largest export markets, remains a top priority for the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). More than 120 pork producers from across the country helped spread this and other messages on Capitol Hill this week during NPPC’s Fall Legislative Action Conference (LAC).

“Last year, Canada and Mexico took over 40 percent of the pork that was exported from the U.S. and they are expected to be a large percentage this year as well,” said NPPC President David Herring, a pork producer from Lillington, N.C. “USMCA will strengthen...

Rabobank: Outside Influences on the Grains & Oilseeds Industry

African Swine Fever Update: Impact on Feed

Chinese pork production in 2019 is expected to decline 25%, with a further 10% drop in 2020. The forecast is for the hog herd to be down by 50% by the end of 2019, before stabilizing somewhat in 2020. Other meat and seafood production and consumption will rise. Pork imports into China are already on the rise, with Spain, Germany, and Canada the key suppliers so far this year. However, we see the potential of non-EU countries gaining higher shares in 2020, as EU production doesn’t seem to be responding strongly enough to meet expected Chinese demand.

Impact on G&O: We are maintaining our projections for China’s feed use and soybean imports from last month. In 2019, the year-on-year drop of China’s hog feed is projected at 35%, with a 5% rebound in 2020. Poultry feed will rise significantly in 2019 and 2020, while aquafeed will only rise by about 5%, with other feed also only growing marginally. Still, total feed in 2019 is seen down...

U.S. Pork Industry Receives USDA Grant to Open ASF Dialogue in Asia 

The global outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), a disease affecting only pigs with no human health or food safety risks, is growing, with new cases appearing throughout Southeast Asia and China. While there are no reported cases of ASF in the U.S., a grant recently awarded to the Swine Health Information Center (SHIC), with active support from the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), aims to start a dialogue between the two regions, sharing veterinary knowledge and ways to prevent the disease from further spreading.

The approximately $1.7 million grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Animal Service division will fund the multi-phase project, helping to build strategic partnerships, while increasing trade of U.S. pork to the region. The work will include swine health field projects, including...

CDC Provides Salmonella Investigation Update 

The CDC has posted an update regarding a multistate outbreak of Salmonella linked to contact with poultry in backyard flocks. Since the last update on July 19, 2019, an additional 235 ill people have been added to this investigation. Throughout 49 states, 1,003 ill people have been reported, with 175 hospitalized. Two deaths have been reported, one in Ohio and one in Texas. The CDC reported that an increase in Salmonella infection linked to live poultry is typically seen in the spring and summer, due to more people purchasing chicks, ducklings, and other live poultry.

The largest number of Salmonella illnesses in outbreaks linked to backyard poultry occurred in 2017, resulting in 1,120 cases and one death. People who fell ill in the 2019 outbreak reported purchasing chicks and ducklings from...

Canada, Mexico and U.S. Plan North American Strategy for African Swine Fever Prevention

Today, the Chief Veterinary Officer (CVO) for the United States, Dr. Burke Healey, along with the CVO for Canada, Dr. Jaspinder Komal, and the CVO for Mexico, Dr. Juan Gay Gutierrez, issued the following statement about the 18th North American Animal Health Committee Meeting (NAAHC).

“The NAAHC meets annually to review and plan our countries’ coordinated activities around animal health, which includes our prevention and preparedness efforts for animal health diseases such as avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease.

This year, we dedicated a special session to discussing African swine fever (ASF), the actions we are taking to prevent its spread to North America, and how to...