Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, Sees Two Cuts in 2025 but Less Easing in Later Years
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and policymakers signaled borrowing costs are still likely to fall this year, but slowed the overall pace of expected future rate cuts in the face of estimated higher inflation flowing from the Trump administration's tariff plans.
In new economic projections, policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary picture of the U.S. economy, with economic growth slowing to 1.4% this year, unemployment rising to 4.5% by the end of this year, and inflation finishing 2025 at 3%...
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Expana Will be Observing the Juneteenth Holiday Thursday, June 19
Expana will be observing the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday, June 19, which will impact the publication of some Expana Benchmark Prices. All US offices will be closed on the day; daily reports will not be published, and the following weekly reports will be impacted:
The Retail Rundown: Grocers Set Stage for Final Summer Push
With Father’s Day in the rearview, grocers are setting the stage for the final big buying event of the summer: the Fourth of July.
The upcoming holiday marks the last major retail push before Labor Day and serves as a key buying window for proteins like beef ahead of the mid-summer lull. To keep product moving, grocers are expected to lean heavily on promotions and feature aggressive pricing in the coming weeks.
Post-Father’s Day, pork and chicken are poised to capture more...
FreshRealm Recalls Chicken Fettuccine Alfredo Products Shipped to Kroger and Walmart Nationwide
FreshRealm establishments are recalling chicken fettuccine alfredo products that were distributed to Kroger and Walmart locations nationwide.
According to an announcement today from the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), the recalled items may be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes (Lm).
The recalled items include all products produced before June 17, 2025, and include the following labels:
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #13
Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #13."
This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Producers Eye Potential Supply Boost
While this year's turkey egg sets and poult placements are still below the 5-year average, there has been a year-over-year (YOY) increase in all these values.
Over the past year, supplies of most lines within the turkey complex have consistently been barely adequate to short of needs. This has resulted in rapidly rising prices with 21 quotations reaching new all-time highs. Many participants from both sides of the negotiation table have been anxiously wondering when they are going to start seeing increased availability...
Standard Meat Company Names Bill Chandler Director of Supply Chain
Standard Meat Company (SMC), a protein processing and packaging innovator headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, has announced the appointment of Bill Chandler as Director of Supply Chain. This newly created leadership position signals the firm’s continued investment in scalable infrastructure and strategic talent to support long-term, sustainable growth.
“Bill brings the right mix of experience, love of the industry, and respect for the people,” said SMC Co-President and CEO Ben Rosenthal. “His first move hasn’t been to overhaul — but to listen. He knows real strategy...
DHS Reverses Pause on ICE Raids, Targeting Farms, Hotels, and Restaurants
Days after the Trump administration ordered a pause on immigration raids targeting the agriculture and hospitality industries, the Department of Homeland Security has reversed course, authorizing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to resume worksite enforcement at farms, hotels, and restaurants, according to the Washington Post.
The publication reported that ICE held a call on June 16 to direct agency leaders that raids could occur at farms, hotels, and restaurants. Representatives from 30 field offices across the US were informed of the new instructions via the call...
Datassential Lists Chick-fil-A as America's Favorite Chain Restaurant
On June 12, 2025, food and beverage intelligence platform Datassential announced the winners of the first-ever Datassential 500 Awards, showcasing the most dynamic foodservice brands in the United States. Notable winners include Chick-fil-A (favorite chain), Crumbl (most unique restaurant menu), and CAVA (best healthy chain).
Founded in 2001, Datassential has been providing food and beverage brands with intelligence tools and consumer insights for more than two decades, including quintessential companies like Starbucks, General Mills, Land O' Lakes, Pepsi, Burger King, and Target...
Circana’s ‘Eat Play Love’ Report Shows Consumer Indulgence Despite Conservative Daily Spending
On June 12, 2025, Circana released its latest report on consumer spending trends, titled “Eat Play Love,” revealing how European consumers are turning to comfort despite ongoing economic pressures, climate concerns, and global conflicts that continually shape daily life.
According to the report, despite exercising frugality with everyday purchases, European consumers are currently prioritizing food retail, foodservice, prestige beauty, and toy purchases, thus indicating a shift towards “self-soothing consumption” and “mini moments of bliss.”
The report leverages Circana's extensive coverage of European consumer goods across hundreds of...
Taco Bell Builds on Crispy Chicken Momentum with New Lineup
After the sell-out success of its tortilla-coated Crispy Chicken Nuggets, Taco Bell is expanding into strips, the next phase in what’s shaping up to be a full-fledged crispy chicken platform.
Starting June 17, the brand debuts Crispy Chicken Strips across tacos and burritos. Made with all-white meat chicken, the strips are marinated in zesty jalapeño buttermilk and breaded in a blend of tortilla chips and breadcrumbs for extra crunch. Each build is layered with shredded cheddar, pico de...
ICE Told to Pause Worksite Raids in Agriculture, Hospitality Sectors by Trump Administration
The Trump administration will reportedly direct US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to pause raids on businesses operating in the agricultural, restaurant, and hotel industries.
According to the New York Times, an internal email and three US officials confirmed the adjustment to President Trump’s deportation and immigration policies.
The email obtained by the publication directed ICE officials to “hold on all work site enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels...
Global Commodities Markets – Q2 2025 Trends and Forecasts
Welcome to the Global Commodities Markets: Q2 2025 trends and forecasts report, where we examine key developments in the global commodity markets.
In an ever-changing economic landscape, getting key insights on essential commodities is crucial for stakeholders across industries.
Each quarter, this report will focus on a few commodities with significant price fluctuations, delivering insights and forward-looking analysis.
Further commodity insights can be explored on the Expana platform, where you’ll find real-time price tracking, access to industry experts and customized alerts...
Ukrainian Poultry Avesterra Group Opens New Processing Plant
Avesterra Group has invested around €60 million in the construction of a new processing plant in the Volyn region of Ukraine, with a capacity of 13,500 broilers/hour.
The 30,000-square-meter plant is equipped with modern equipment that meets European standards, and includes 50 technological and auxiliary buildings, as well as treatment facilities with membrane filtration. The plant will process poultry products for three of the company’s brand, it said. Epikur, a hormone-free chicken brand, the more affordable chicken brand Chebaturochka and Hala-certified Delika.
Avesterra hopes to create hundreds of jobs in the new plant and increase its output capacity to address growing demand and access to EU markets, company said.
Navigating the Trump Tariff Turbulence: A Comprehensive Timeline
US President Donald Trump and his administration have paused reciprocal tariffs on most countries.
“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown... I am hereby raising the [tariff] charged to China by the [USA] to 125%, effective immediately,” wrote Trump on Truth Social at 1:18 pm ET.
It’s not clear if this 125% is in addition to the 20% imposed on Chinese imports to the US. In early March, Trump noted that he would add another 10% tariff on Chinese goods...
Austria And Hungary Join France in Concerns over Mercosur Deal
Representatives from Austria and Hungary met with the French Minister of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty, Annie Genevard. During the meeting, they “reiterated their strong concerns regarding the proposed free trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries,” the French Ministry of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty said.
"Significant quantities of imported products produced under lower standards could lead to the exclusion of European agricultural products,” István Nagy, the Hungarian Minister of Agriculture said. This could, the minister added, weigh on prices and on the profitability of EU...
Commerce Secretary Lutnick: US-China Trade Deal Framework Finalized
United States Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that the US and China have agreed to a trade framework after two days of negotiations in London.
After what reports described as “intense negotiations,” Lutnick told reporters that the framework builds upon an agreement made last month to ease triple-digit retaliatory tariffs.
In a social media post on June 11, President Trump said that a deal with China was done and called the trade relationship with China “excellent.” However, further details regarding the deal were not made public...
The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Father’s Day Protein Promotions; CPI Shows Mild Increase
For Father’s Day weekend, seafood leads retail protein promotions, accounting for 28% of total ad volume. Beef follows at 24.8%, with pork close behind at 23.6%. Chicken claims 19% of protein ads, while turkey makes up about 3%.
Egg features remain limited for now but are on track to gain ground next week amid improving retail demand. While egg consumption typically slows around this time of year due to reduced baking and fewer hot breakfasts, eggs are emerging as one of the few proteins seeing price relief at retail—standing out amid peak seasonal...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Slide, How Tariffs and Other Headwinds Hit the Market
Total turkey exports ended the month of April down approximately 23.7% year-over-year (YOY). This was primarily driven by a 23.5% decrease in the volume moved to Mexico, which made up 83.2% of international purchasing of US turkey for April compared to a 5-year average of 67.1%. Much of the changes to US exports of turkey during the spring can be related to tariffs, along with ongoing production concerns.
The month-over-month (MOM) change was only a decline of 0.9%, compared...
Mexico Relaxes Brazilian Poultry Ban, But Mauritania, Oman Expand It
Mexico, along with 46 other countries, initially banned all poultry imports from Brazil after the South American country confirmed its first outbreak of bird flu on a commercial farm on May 15. Mexico has now relaxed the countrywide ban to just exports from the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where the outbreak was detected.
In contrast, Mauritania has banned all imports of chicken meat from all of Brazil, and Oman from Rio Grande do Sul.
Brazil has been advocating for countries to limit the ban...
Convenience Store M&A Activity Suggests More Consolidation is Coming
The pace of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. convenience store sector is accelerating with recent trends suggesting the nation’s c-store landscape is ripe for more change. While most of the transactions in 2024 involved smaller chains or single-store operators, several larger operators inked deals to significantly expand their footprints into new regions.
According to a new research brief from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, c-store consolidation stands to disproportionally affect rural communities, many of which lack a grocery store or access...
Brazil Confirms New HPAI Outbreak in Backyard Poultry
On Saturday, June 7, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock confirmed the detection of bird flu in a backyard flock from the municipality of Campinápolis, in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil.
The Official Veterinary Service closed the property and collected samples for laboratory analysis, which confirmed the outbreak. This marks the fourth case of avian influenza detected in backyard poultry in Brazil.
On Sunday, June 8, eradication measures and surveillance actions began within a 10 km radius of the outbreak...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #12
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #12."
ANALYSIS: Chicken Hatch Remains on YOY Upswing
In the chicken market, persistent uncertainty around disease risk, pockets of seasonally atypical market movement, and global trade tension continue to complicate forward-looking strategies for buyers and sellers alike. This environment is pushing stakeholders to seek clearer signals amid the noise. In that regard, hatchery performance is one of the few guiding lights in an otherwise volatile market landscape.
According to the latest USDA hatchery figures, both eggs set and chicks placed continue to post steady year-over-year (YOY) gains. Egg sets for the week ending May 31 reached...
KFC Relaunches $7 Fill Ups Nationwide, Partners with F1® THE MOVIE for Summer Campaign
KFC is bringing back its popular $7 Fill Ups, offering four complete meal options at a strong value price point. The return aligns with a nationwide marketing partnership with F1® THE MOVIE, positioning KFC as a go-to stop for quick, satisfying meals this summer.
$7 Fill Ups – Available Now Nationwide:Each Fill Up includes an entrée, mashed potatoes with gravy, a biscuit, two pie poppers, and a medium drink.
Coke Florida Names New Leaders for Distribution and Manufacturing Operations
Coca-Cola Beverages Florida, LLC announced two strategic leadership promotions that further strengthen its operational leadership team.
Yancy Appointed Vice President, Distribution Operations
Yancy, currently serving as Vice President, Manufacturing Operations, has been appointed Vice President, Distribution Operations. In this role, he will lead the execution of Coke Florida’s end-to-end distribution strategy, encompassing traditional and automated warehousing, as well as fleet operations across the company’s statewide footprint.
Yancy brings more than 15 years of experience within the Coca-Cola system and has been with Coke Florida since 2017, driving performance across manufacturing and supply chain functions.
ANALYSIS: Supply-Driven Pricing in the Turkey Market
The number of turkeys processed in April was at an all-time low, following a trend that was established in August of last year. HPAI, avian metapneumovirus, and economic limitations all continue to impact the availability of supplies. The record low supplies are influencing an extremely bullish market as 21 of Expana’s quotations reach all-time high levels. Still, participants on both sides of the negotiation table lament the lack of offerings. Many sellers have reportedly taken a cautious approach when it comes to the pricing of certain lines, especially...
The Retail Rundown: Pork Deals Deliver Summer Savings
Pork promotions are gaining momentum, with value-priced cuts standing out against higher-priced beef and even some chicken items.
Bacon continues to steal the spotlight in the pork category, fueled by strong seasonal demand as consumers stock up on this summer staple. Over Memorial Day, discounted bacon averaged $6.30 per pound, up nearly 3% from last year. Wholesale belly prices have climbed 13% since early April, supported by tightening hog supplies and historically low cold storage stocks.
As grilling season gains momentum, demand for ribs...
McDonald's Snack Wraps are Officially Coming Back: Here's When
The wait is almost over.
McDonald's confirmed to USA TODAY on Tuesday that the Snack Wrap will officially be coming back to restaurants permanently beginning Thursday, July 10.
The Snack Wrap features one of McDonald's new McCrispy Strips – a juicy chicken strip made with all white meat – topped with crisp shredded lettuce and shredded cheese, all wrapped in a soft flour tortilla, according to the chain.
The item will be available in two flavors:
Argentina’s Meatpacker Lequio Group Acquires Mattievich
Lequio, a large Argentinian meatpacker, has announced the acquisition of 80% the meatpacker Mattievich Group, which it hopes to finalize by the end of June. Both firms are already working in the merging of operations, Lequio said.
“We bought 80% of shares, not all. The livestock operations were excluded,” Leonardo Lequio told Argentinian media.
After the acquisition is complete, Lequio will have increased its slaughtering capacity to “over 4,000 cattle head per day,” the firm said.
Lequio will acquire at least six of Mattievich Group facilities across Argenitina...
Mastering Market Volatility: 5 Minutes with Little Caesars’ Derek Nelson
In today’s volatile market, where shifts in agrifood commodity prices can significantly impact your bottom line, understanding and managing risk is paramount. Derek Nelson, Director of Commodity Risk & Analytics at Little Caesars, exemplifies this proactive approach in his role leading hedging operations for this global restaurant chain.
Ahead of his participation at Expana’s Agri-Food Americas event in September, Derek spoke with us to share insights into how a global brand navigates the complexities of dairy, grains, protein and energy markets...
Dave's Hot Chicken Entering Next Phase of Growth & Innovation with Roark
From a parking lot in 2017, to a global sensation which expects to end the year with more than 400 restaurants across the globe; Dave's Hot Chicken has chosen an investment from Roark, entering its next phase of growth and innovation.
Dave's Hot Chicken has had years of incredible unit and sales growth and leading guest satisfaction metrics. The company remains committed to delivering an exceptional experience for its guests, team members and its franchise partners around the globe...
Volatility Defines 2025 in Food and Agriculture Markets – How do You Navigate It?
2025 has been a year marked by uncertainty in the food and agriculture sector. Volatility is the defining characteristic, with a cascade of global events disrupting pricing, availability and trade dynamics. From geopolitical tensions and severe weather events to animal epidemics and macroeconomic shifts, commodity markets have become increasingly difficult to navigate for buyers and sellers alike.
“The key challenge for businesses at the moment is having to navigate different markets going in different directions,” said Tom Bundgaard, VP of Price Forecasting...
Domino's Launches Weeklong Carryout Special
Domino’s is starting the month with a new promotion: from June 2–8, customers can carry out large two-topping pizzas for just $6.99 each.
This weeklong carryout special applies to any large pizza with two toppings, including specialty crusts like Hand Tossed, Crunchy Thin, and New York Style. For an additional $3, customers can upgrade to Domino’s new Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza.
The promotion comes as Domino’s ramps up rewards and deals to boost consumer demand.
The company reported a 0.5% decline...
Popeyes Rolls Out All-New Chicken Wraps
Popeyes is heating up the summer with the launch of an all-new menu category. Introducing the Popeyes Chicken Wrap — a bold, grab-and-go option packed with flavor and value, available for a limited time.
Each wrap features a hand-breaded, crispy chicken tender, crisp lettuce, shredded cheese, crunchy pickles, and your choice of Classic, Spicy, or Honey Mustard spread — all wrapped in a soft, warm tortilla inspired by our famous biscuits.
The Chicken Wraps come in three crave-worthy variations, each available for just $3.99...
PODCAST: Agri-Food for Thought Ep. 29 - M&A in the Global Agri-Food Industry, May 2025 Overview
Expana presents Agri-Food for Thought, the podcast series for agriculture and food professionals.
Today, we bring you up to speed with merger & acquisition activity in the global agrifood landscape that occurred in May 2025 as part of the monthly M&A focus series.
May 2025 was generally quieter in terms of M&A compared to previous months. There are many factors influencing this but the ongoing tariffs situation, trade disputes, and market uncertainty, likely playe a role here.
ALDI Announces Promotion of Atty McGrath to ALDI US CEO
ALDI U.S. is excited to announce that Jason Hart, ALDI U.S. Chief Executive Officer, has been promoted to join the Executive Board of ALDI South as Group Chief Operating Officer. Hart will help oversee the company's global operations in Salzburg, Austria, effective September 1. Atty McGrath, currently Chief Operating Officer, will assume the ALDI U.S. Chief Executive role.
During his decade-long leadership as ALDI U.S. CEO, Hart has led the rapid expansion and development of the...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #11
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #11."
Signing the EU-Mercosur Agreement by December Is Possible, Says European Council President
The EU and Mercosur countries expect to sign the agreement in a December ceremony. “It is a short timeframe, but we are going to try to make it happen,” Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, said during a visit to Brazil on Thursday.
Costa added that the European Commission is in the process of translating the agreement into the 24 EU official languages and plans to finish it by July.
While farming sectors in some EU countries such as France or Spain have expressed concern...
ANALYSIS: April Chicken Cold Storage, Inventory Rebalancing Continues Amid Demand Shifts
Chicken cold storage inventories in April rose 2.1 percent year-over-year, even as total volumes declined 2.3 percent month-over-month. This monthly drawdown was more significant than the typical five-year April average decline of 1.7 percent, reflecting an active reduction in certain categories as seasonal demand shifts into focus.
Breasts and breast meat, which account for the largest portion of total chicken in cold storage, declined 5.8 percent from March. Inventories remain 7.5 percent above year-ago levels and are consistent with historical averages...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Remain at Multi-Year Low
The latest cold storage report continues to reflect the strain on the US turkey supply chain. Total turkey inventories fell to 318.8 million pounds in April, marking a new seasonal low and an 18.4% year-over-year (YoY) decline from April 2024. This represents the seventh consecutive month of YoY reductions.
A combination of reduced hatchery figures when compared to last year, along with ongoing disease issues, continues to limit overall production output. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) detections year-to-date (YTD) are...
71% of Canadian and 43% of Mexican Consumers Intend to Buy Fewer US Grocery Products, Study Reveals
Seventy-one percent of Canadian and 43% of Mexican consumers report they will buy fewer U.S. grocery products in 2025 according to the tenth wave of the dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) released today. Canada and Mexico are the two largest agricultural trading partners of the U.S. According to the USDA, in 2024 the U.S. exported 33% of its agricultural products to Canada and Mexico, totaling over $58 billion out of $176 billion of total U.S. agricultural...
Firehouse Subs Accelerates Global Growth with Entry into Mexico
Firehouse Subs has signed a significant development agreement with Foodplay to open 100 restaurants across Mexico over the next five years, marking its latest strategic move in international expansion. This initiative is expected to generate hundreds of jobs locally while strengthening brand presence across Latin America.
"We believe Firehouse Subs has tremendous potential in Mexico's growing sandwich market," said Duncan Montero, LAC President of Restaurant Brands International (RBI), parent company of Firehouse Subs. "We're excited to bring Firehouse premium subs, heartfelt service...
Teamsters at Kroger Authorize Strike
Drivers at Kroger's Forest Park fulfillment center have voted overwhelmingly to authorize a strike in response to the company's repeated refusal to negotiate a fair agreement. The workers, represented by Teamsters Local 528, are demanding a first Teamsters contract with strong wages, good benefits, and enforceable workplace protections.
"Kroger needs to stop dragging its feet and deliver a real offer that respects the work we do," said Marion Jackson, a Kroger driver and Local 528 shop steward. "This company can more than afford what we're asking for. We are ready...
USDA and Mexico Invest in Joint Effort to Eradicate New World Screwworm
On a recent call, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brook L. Rollins and Mexico’s Secretary of Agriculture and Rural Development, Julio Berdegué Sacristán, discussed ongoing efforts to contain the threat of New World Screwworm (NWS) south of the US-Mexico border. The USDA shared an update on the partnership via its website.
As part of this effort, the USDA announced a $21 million investment to renovate an existing fruit fly production facility in Metapa, Mexico. The goal is to produce an additional...
The Retail Rundown: Father’s Day Fires Up Demand for Premium Cuts
Meat sales over Memorial Day weekend appeared to underperform in some regions this year, as cool weather across the Midwest curbed outdoor grilling activity.
Retailers are now setting their sights on the next major grilling event, Father’s Day, paired with hopes for improved weather. Falling on June 15th this year, the event presents another opportunity to drive protein consumption.
This week’s retail buying opportunities are led by seafood, which accounts for 28.2% of protein ads. Beef has 26.4%, trailed by pork at 23.2%, chicken at 18%, and turkey with...
Sugar On the Chopping Block for SNAP Program Following MAHA Commission
On May 22, US President Donald Trump spoke alongside Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others during a MAHA [Make America Healthy Again] Commission Event.
“We’re on track to sign multiples of SNAP waivers to get junk food and sugary drinks out of our food stamp system,” said the USDA’s Rollins. Rollins signed the first waivers to amend the statutory definition of food for purchase for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs (SNAP) in Nebraska, Indiana, and Iowa, she said during her speech...
The Bird Flu “Outbreak in Montenegro Is Completely Contained,” Brazil Says
“We are on the fifth working day after the farm was completely disinfected, and 15 days have passed since the outbreak was identified. I can safely assure you that the outbreak in Montenegro is completely contained,” Carlos Fávaro, Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, said on Tuesday in a public hearing at the Agriculture and Agrarian Reform Committee (CRA).
The hearing was to discuss the “zoosanitary emergency” resulting from bird flu, which has resulted in over 60 countries limiting some or all Brazilian poultry products after...
Layne's Chicken Fingers Celebrates Multiple Six-Figure Opening Weeks
Layne's Chicken Fingers, the Soon to be FamousTM chicken finger franchise, continues to see remarkable results at the restaurant level as it expands nationwide. With growing brand awareness, unbeatable brand loyalty and streamlined operations to ensure a smooth opening period, Layne's restaurants are far exceeding expectations.
"We continue to be blown away by the numbers our franchisees are reaching in their first days and weeks of operations," said Samir Wattar, chief operating officer. "We used to be ecstatic when a franchisee had a six-figure opening...
Expana Will Be Closed on Monday, May 26, 2025
Expana's administrative offices will be closed Monday, May 26, 2025 in observance of Memorial Day.
Coverage will resume on Expana, COMTELL, SeafoodNews and Foodmarket on Tuesday, May 27, 2025.
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #10
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #10."
ANALYSIS: Chicken Production Expectations on the Rise
The May 2025 USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook paints a cautiously optimistic picture for the US broiler industry. While growth remains intact, several factors—including production constraints and global trade uncertainties—are creating a more measured trajectory moving forward.
US broiler production is now projected to reach 47.5 billion pounds in 2025, reflecting a modest 1.1% increase over last year. This growth is fueled by a higher number of birds slaughtered and slightly heavier average weights. However, the forecast ha
Executives from Kroger, Publix, Sysco and Walmart Join GS1 US Board of Governors
The GS1 US Board of Governors has elected four industry leaders to join the GS1 US Board: Benjamin Hamilton, vice president, supply chain planning, Kroger; Brad Oliver, senior vice president of product business development, Publix Super Markets, Inc.; Greg Keller, senior vice president, national accounts, Sysco, SYGMA, and Guest Worldwide; and Greg Cathey, senior vice president, transformation and innovation, Walmart. Additionally, Brian Dick, president and CEO, Golden State Foods, has been appointed vice chairman.
These executives comprise a cross-industry Board of Governors...
ANALYSIS: Expectations for Chicken Prices After EU Bans Poultry Imports from Brazil
Brazil, which accounts for approximately 30% of global poultry exports (with China as its top customer, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa), confirmed its first outbreak of bird flu on a poultry farm on May 16, 2025. In response, the European Commission (EC) has banned imports of Brazilian poultry and poultry meat products to the European Union (EU).
Although the EU represents only 4.4% of Brazil’s total poultry exports, Brazil accounts for approximately 32% of the EU’s poultry...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Hatch Figures Reflect Supply Pinch with Slight Variations
Given the well accounted for supply landscape surrounding most key segments within the turkey complex at the moment, market participants are closely monitoring for any signs of a shift from the prevailing status quo. Although May marked the nineteenth consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the eggs in incubators, there could be some emerging indications that an inflection point may be approaching, at least on paper.
May’s beginning tally of 24.8 million eggs in incubators was just 0.2%, or 51,000 eggs, below the comparable period in...
Snack Mania Recalls Nearly 10,000 Pounds of Chicken Coxinhas Due to Lack of Federal Inspection
According to an announcement from the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), Snack Mania Brazilian Delights Corp has issued a recall of approximately 9,722 pounds of ready-to-eat chicken coxinhas products. The recall was initiated because the products were produced without the benefit of federal inspection.
The affected items were produced on various dates between June 27, 2024, and May 2, 2025. They are packaged in 16.37 oz plastic containers labeled “Snack Mania COXINHAS BRAZILIAN...
Cargill Forecasts a Sizzling Start to Summer Grilling this Memorial Day
As millions of Americans mark the start of summer this Memorial Day weekend, Cargill is forecasting a strong demand for protein as grills fire up across the country. The company expects that many consumers will prioritize affordability without sacrificing taste by seeking out staples like ground beef, chicken and hot dogs.
Nearly 9 of 10 consumers say they’re ready to grill this summer, with approximately half of them planning to do so weekly. Beef (79%) and poultry (64%) remain the top choices for the grill...
Dolly Parton Partners with Conagra Brands on New Line of Frozen Dinners
America’s sweetheart and musical icon, Dolly Parton, has announced the expansion of her retail food line.
In partnership with industry leader Conagra Brands, the launch builds on a successful collaboration that began in 2022.
The new line combines the convenience of single-serve frozen meals with the finger-licking flavors of Southern-inspired cuisine. Each meal retails for $4.49 and can be prepared in either the microwave or oven. The meals are available at major grocery retailers across the US.
Product highlights...
The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Memorial Day Retail Ads; Weather Poses Challenges
Seafood leads retail protein promotions heading into Memorial Day weekend, accounting for 28.7% of total featured protein ad volume. Pork follows at 25.9%, with beef at 21.3% and chicken at 19.3%.
Egg feature volume is virtually absent amid sluggish retail demand. Warmer weather is prompting a shift toward fruit and cereal for breakfast, while elevated, though easing, shelf prices continue to dampen consumer interest, according to Expana.
Within the seafood category, fresh and frozen fillets represent the largest share of advertised items at nearly 28%. Raw shrimp...
Feeder Vessel Transfers Disqualify Cargo from In-Transit Tariff Exemption Under IEEPA
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has provided clarification regarding the application of the in-transit tariff exemption under the Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order, with specific implications for feeder vessel operations. In guidance released on May 15, CBP confirmed that cargo transferred from a feeder vessel to a US-bound vessel after April 5, 2025, will not qualify for the in-transit exemption.
Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), cargo that was loaded before April 5 and remains...
Applebee’s Reintroduces “All You Can Eat” to Drive Seasonal Traffic
Applebee’s has reintroduced its popular “All You Can Eat” promotion, an LTO strategy the brand consistently deploys during high-traffic periods to drive guest visits.
This season’s lineup features three proven guest favorites and legacy menu items: Chicken Tenders, Riblets, and Double Crunch Shrimp—offering broad consumer appeal.
Expana Honors an Industry Legend and the Next Generation with Awards
The award ceremony at this year’s Executive Conference, the event for leaders in the animal protein sector, featured the annually presented Rising Star Award sponsored by Farm Credit, and the Lifetime Achievement Award.
In its third year, the Rising Star Award is presented to a protein industry newcomer who is striving towards innovation, collaboration and success for not only their business but the wider sector. The Lifetime Achievement Award is given to an individual who has had a multi-faceted and distinguished career in...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #9
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #9."
GSF Promotes Bill Chiou to Vice President, Global Applications & Welcomes Guillermo Hernandez Garcia
In recent leadership news, GSF is pleased to announce the promotion of Bill Chiou to Vice President, Global Applications and the appointment of Guillermo Hernandez Garcia as Group Vice President, Supply Chain.
In late April, Bill assumed his elevated information technology role of Vice President, Global Applications. In this position, he oversees the strategic development, implementation, management, and continuous improvement of GSF’s global applications portfolio. He ensures business applications support and advance the company’s strategic objectives, operational efficiency, and digital transformation initiatives across all divisions and geographies.
Brazil Confirms First Bird Flu Outbreak on Commercial Poultry Farm in Nearly 20 Years
Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) confirmed on Friday, May 16 an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in a breeder facility for commercial poultry. The outbreak was detected on May 15 in the municipality of Montenegro, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where one of the largest poultry production facilities in the country is located.
“This is the first HPAI outbreak detected in Brazil’s commercial poultry farming system,” Mapa said, and added that containment and eradication measures...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Exports for March Driven by Global Uncertainty
March 2025 broiler exports totaled 568,711,000 lbs, up 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) and 3.9% from February. While the headline growth appears stable, underlying market movements suggest a broiler export sector navigating increasing trade friction and market realignment.
Taiwan saw the steepest decline, with volumes falling 47.3% YoY and 69.5% month-over-month (MoM), landing far below its 5-year March average. This aligns with ongoing geopolitical strain and shifting procurement policies, possibly tied to broader regional trade conflicts and retaliatory barriers that have sharply reduced...
Mars Opens New Pet Food Facility in Ohio
Mars has opened a new $450 million Royal Canin pet food factory in Lewisburg, Ohio, representing the largest single investment in a Royal Canin manufacturing site globally.
The new facility, spanning 450,000 square feet, will produce enough dry pet food to feed 4 million pets annually and create up to 270 new jobs over five years.
In the US, Mars operates 37 factories in addition to veterinary clinics, labs and 14 global and regional offices. This investment is part of Mars’ larger $6 billion commitment
JBS Q1 2025 Net Profit Up 50% on Pork, Poultry Gains
Brazilian meat company JBS reported a 50.5% increase in net profit in the first quarter of 2025 reaching 2.92 billion reais ($521 million). Revenue rose 8.5% to $19.5 billion.
The company said strong results in its pork and poultry operations offset continued weakness in North American beef. Seara, its Brazil-based unit, reported an EBITDA margin of 19.8%, while the North American beef business posted a negative 1.6% EBITDA margin, despite net sales up by 16%.
Beef margins were pressured by record cattle...
The Retail Rundown: Pre-Grilling Season Retail Insights
With Memorial Day fast approaching, retailers are ramping up promotions to jumpstart the unofficial kickoff to the summer grilling season—a crucial window for driving foot traffic and boosting meat department sales.
The next two weeks are key, as market participants closely watch consumer demand ahead of what is typically one of the busiest periods for beef sales. Protein items are being prominently showcased alongside vibrant seasonal produce, enhancing the appeal of in-store displays.
Seafood leads the protein feature mix this week, accounting for nearly 30% of all advertised protein items...
China, UK Trade Talks Pose Positive Opportunities for US Animal Food Industry
The American Feed Industry Association (AFIA) is pleased to see a cooling of U.S. tariffs on and retaliatory tariffs from China and a proposed trade agreement with the United Kingdom coming to fruition, given discussions late last week and over the weekend between the U.S. and respective countries’ trade officials. Both China and the United Kingdom present valuable opportunities for U.S. animal food manufacturers, which produce some of the safest, highest quality and innovative feed, feed ingredients and pet food globally...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #8
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #8."
Dr. Casey Means Appointed to US Surgeon General
On May 8, Dr. Casey Means was appointed to be the next US Surgeon General by US President Trump, after a recommendation from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. A forthcoming Senate hearing will occur to vote whether to confirm Means to this position, Expana has reported.
Means associates diet with the root cause of the “chronic disease epidemic” in America.
“Metabolic dysfunction is largely not a genetic issue. It’s caused by toxic American ultra-processed industrial food, toxic American chemicals, toxic American medication, and our toxic sedentary indoor lifestyles..."
US Foods Achieves Solid Q1 Results with Gains Across Key Segments
US Foods has released its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, highlighting strong performance driven by a focused strategy and the company's ability to manage controllable factors while adapting to broader macroeconomic conditions.
“During the first quarter we outperformed the industry and again delivered strong profitability, with Adjusted EBITDA growing 9% and Adjusted Diluted EPS increasing 26%, despite the challenging operating environment and weather-related headwinds. Our results speak to the strength of our customer value proposition and relentless execution of our strategy,”...
49th Executive Conference Highlights Resilience and Future Outlook of Animal Protein Sector
This year’s Executive Conference held in Las Vegas from May 5–7 for senior leaders in the animal protein sector, was an informative show of the industry’s and what we can expect from the protein sector in the coming years.
“We feed the ever-growing needs of the entire population,” said Russ Whitman, Expana’s Director of Market Reporting, in his opening remarks.
Despite challenges related to animal health, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical tensions, the industry has demonstrated remarkable perseverance.
ANALYSIS: EU Broiler Market Update - Price Momentum, Production Growth, and Export Potential
The EU broiler market has shown notable price resilience in recent months, as average prices reached EUR 2.88/kg by the end of April 2025. This marks a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, positioning EU broiler prices ahead of those in other major poultry-producing regions such as Brazil and Thailand.
Brazilian broiler prices remain significantly lower, despite modest gains in recent weeks. Current price levels are at approximately EUR 1.5 /kg, highlighting Brazil's continued cost competitiveness in the global poultry market...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Slaughter: A Look at Q1 and What Lies Ahead
The first quarter of 2025 has extended the poultry industry’s trend of constrained production, with slaughter volumes trailing historical norms due to a mix of operational and biological challenges. January began firmly, with federally inspected chicken slaughter reaching 834.3 million head—slightly above both 2024’s level and the historical maximum for the month. However, this strength was not sustained.
February volumes fell sharply to 736.9 million head, reflecting the combined effects of widespread winter storms and plant downtime which limited live bird transport and reduced line schedules...
Secretary Rollins Requires States to Provide Records on SNAP Benefits
Today, U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) will require States to make certain all records associated with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits and allotments are shared with the federal government.
“President Trump is rightfully requiring the federal government to have access to all programs it funds,” said Secretary Rollins, “and SNAP is no exception. For years, this program has been on autopilot, with no USDA insight into real-time data. The Department is focused on appropriate and lawful participation in SNAP, and today’s request is one of many steps to ensure SNAP is preserved for only those eligible...
The Retail Rundown: Grocers Take on Foodservice for a Slice of Mother’s Day Spending
Grocers are gearing up to win a slice of Mother’s Day sales, which are traditionally dominated by restaurants and dining out. While foodservice still captures the lion’s share of spending, supermarkets are making strategic plays to compete for consumers' dollars.
According to the National Retail Federation, Mother’s Day spending is projected to hit $34.1 billion this year—up from $33.5 billion in 2024 and just shy of the 2023 record of $35.7 billion. About 84% of US adults are expected to celebrate, spending an average of $259.04 on gifts and festivities...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Harvest Numbers Continue to Fall Below Industry Norms
The 2025 turkey slaughter trajectory is shaping up to be one of the most historically limited starts in recent memory. USDA data shows federally inspected turkey headcounts for January through March averaging just over 14.5 million per month - an 18% drop from the 24-year average and nearly 19% below the 5-year norm. February was especially weak, with only 13.27 million turkeys harvested - the lowest total for that month in over two decades. Notably, each of the first three months of 2025 has tracked below the previous recorded historical low, firmly establishing the year’s limited supply footing...
PODCAST: Agri-Food for Thought Ep 28 - M&A in the Global Agri-Food Industry, April 2025 Overview
M&A in the global agri-food industry is an ongoing and very regular trend. Although many companies are hitting the brakes on M&A as they face tariffs and market uncertainty, hundreds of deals continue to take place each month.
On today's episode of Agri-Food for Thought, we showcase selected mergers and acquisitions in the agri-food sector that took place in April 2025.
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #7
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #7."
ANALYSIS: Turkey Shortage Deepens: March Stocks Drop Below 2022 Levels
The total volume of turkey in cold storage has fallen below 2022 to reach a new all-time low in March. Since October 2024, there has been an ongoing trend of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the total amount of frozen turkey. This is largely attributed to low production figures and a relatively high number of disease-related issues. The total number of turkeys processed has been at an all-time low since November 2024, and this year's year-to-date (YTD) HPAI detections are at the second-highest value on record. Additionally, market discussions have suggested that avian metapneumovirus has been responsible for substantial increases in mortality...
ANALYSIS: March Chicken Inventory Trends Reflect Shifting Domestic and Export Dynamics
Cold storage inventories of chicken continue to diverge from 2023 levels, with March values up 3.1% year-over-year (YoY). Although there was a month-over-month (MoM) decrease from February to March, it was less significant than the typical five-year average decline. This overall trend was largely driven by the breast and breast meat category, which alone accounted for 32% of total chicken supplies in cold storage. Frozen holdings of breasts and breast meat were up 13.7% YoY and declined just 0.6% MoM—far less than the five-year average decrease of 4.2%.
This is particularly notable given the difficulty many domestic buyers faced in uncovering both...
Expana Establishes Advisory Board to Accelerate Growth and Global Impact in the Agrifood Sector
Expana, the world’s leading agrifood-focused Price Reporting Agency and global information provider, today announced the launch of its Advisory Board — a major step in advancing its commercial momentum, industry influence, and global reach.
The newly appointed Advisory Board brings together 12 senior executives from across the agrifood value chain with experience from a wide range of businesses including Tyson, Mars, PepsiCo, Nestle, Bunge, Compass Group, Goldman Sachs, General Mills and many more. This move reinforces Expana’s commitment to empowering businesses...
Smith Packing Recalls Approximately 18,792 Pounds of RTE Sausage and Sliced Meat and Poultry Product
According to an announcement from the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), Smith Packing, LLC is recalling approximately 18,792 pounds of ready-to-eat sausage and sliced meat and poultry products due to excessive sodium nitrite levels.
This recall follows an investigation prompted by customer complaints about an off-putting taste and/or discoloration of the product.
The affected items were produced between February 19 and April 24, 2025, bear establishment numbers “EST. 4578”...
The Retail Rundown: Grocers Turn Up the Heat
Grocers are turning up the heat in this week’s circulars, leaning into classic summer grilling staples—ribs, burgers, and barbecue fixings—signaling early excitement for the season even with Memorial Day still a few weeks away.
Seafood tops this week’s retail protein promotions, claiming roughly 28% of total ad space. Beef follows with 24.7%, trailed by pork at 23.1% and chicken at 20.2%. Turkey ads were slashed by half compared to last week, now accounting for just 3% of circular space.
Retailers are also highlighting festive favorites ahead of Cinco de Mayo. Ground beef in the 78–84% lean range averaged $4.89 per...
Sysco Corporation Delivers Q3 Financial Results
Sysco Corporation released its financial results for the third quarter of its fiscal year, highlighting some growth despite a challenging operating environment. Unfavorable foreign exchange movements, disruptive weather events, wildfires, and softening consumer confidence have all impacted results for the period.
Total Sysco
Sysco Corporation reported a 1.1% increase in sales for the third quarter, despite a 2.0% decline in U.S. Foodservice volume. Gross profit edged down 0.8% to $3.6 billion, while operating income fell 5.7% to $681 million. Adjusted operating income declined 3.3% to $773...
US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins Announces Major Win for Texas Farmers and Ranchers in Water Negotiations with Mexico
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announces a major win for American agriculture by securing the agreement of the Mexican government to meet the current water needs of farmers and ranchers in Texas as part of the 1944 Water Treaty. The Mexican government committed to transfer water from international reservoirs and increase the U.S. share of the flow in six of Mexico’s Rio Grande tributaries through the end of the current five-year water cycle...
Dollar Tree Names New Chief Supply Chain Officer
Dollar Tree, Inc. has announced the retirement of Chief Supply Chain Officer Mike Kindy, who joined the company in May 2023.
“From overseeing complex distribution networks to modernizing our supply chain strategy, his contributions have been instrumental in positioning our company for long-term success. We are grateful for Mike’s service and wish him all the best in his upcoming retirement,” said Mike Creedon, the company's Chief Executive Officer.
Kindy will be succeeded immediately by Roxanne Weng.
Weng brings over 30 years of experience in the retail industry...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #6
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #6."
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Announces Leadership Transition
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers has announced the resignation of its President and Chief Executive Officer, G.J. Hart, after more than five years of leadership at the company.
During his tenure, Mr. Hart implemented key initiatives that significantly enhanced the guest experience and repositioned Red Robin as an operations-focused brand.
Effective immediately, David A. Pace will succeed Mr. Hart as President and CEO.
To ensure a smooth transition, Mr. Hart will continue to serve in an advisory role through September.
Pace, current Chairman of the...
McDonald’s Adds McCrispy Strips and Creamy Chili Dip to Permanent Menu
As temperatures rise, quick-service restaurants are adjusting menus to satisfy seasonal cravings. In its effort to expand offerings, McDonald’s turned to its customers—on social media and beyond—to ask what they wanted most. The overwhelming answer: more chicken.
Responding to that demand, McDonald’s is launching its first permanent menu addition since 2021. Starting May 5, the brand will debut its new McCrispy Strips, served with a Creamy Chili Dip.
"Since stepping into my new role as a leader of the U.S. business this year...
ANALYSIS: 2025 YTD Turkey Poult Placements Down 4.0%: Hen Supply Hit Hardest
Year-to-date (YTD) poult placements in 2025 hover an average of 4.0% below the 5-year average. This is a continuation of the ongoing trend of below-average supplies. While HPAI cases are less frequent and the new avian metapneumovirus vaccines are starting to be implemented, the losses sustained by the industry leave a lasting impact that is not quickly overcome. For these reasons, hatcheries only have so many eggs they can set, and growers are also restricted on the number of birds...
ANALYSIS: Broiler Production Outlook Brings Expectation of Gains
As we approach the tail end of April, protein market participants are weighing a number of variables as they attempt to hone their expectations for the road which lies ahead. For stakeholders in the chicken sector, concerns around disease, low hatchability, and live weights remain front and center.
Despite persistent uncertainty, the second-quarter broiler production expectations are projected to post the largest year-over-year (YoY) increase among all of the major protein categories. According to the Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook, the latest Q2 forecast stands...
NCC Statement on Withdrawal of Salmonella Framework
NCC today released the following statement in response to FSIS withdrawing the proposed Salmonella Framework for Raw Poultry Products:
“We remain committed to further reducing Salmonella and fully support food safety regulations and policies that are based on sound science, robust data, and are demonstrated to meaningfully impact public health,” said Ashley Peterson, Ph.D., NCC senior vice president of scientific and regulatory affairs.
Peterson said as it was written, though, this Framework:
Mother’s Day Wishes Revealed According to OpenTable Research
Mother’s Day is meant to be a time of pampering and appreciation, but for many moms, the planning still lands on their to-do list.
According to research from OpenTable, 44% of moms say having others make plans to celebrate them is what makes Mother’s Day truly special. Yet, despite this, 39% of moms end up making their own reservations.
It's no wonder nearly 30%, nearly a third, say what they’re most looking forward to is some well-deserved “me time” and a chance...
Chipotle Reports Q1 2025 Revenue Growth Despite Avocado Cost Pressures
California-based chain Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reported its first-quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2025.
First quarter highlights, year over year:
Farm Bureau Calls for Clarity in WOTUS
The American Farm Bureau Federation today asked for changes to the “Waters of the United States” rule to bring it in line with the Sackett v. EPA Supreme Court ruling, which called for more clarity in water regulations. AFBF submitted comments in response to the Environmental Protection Agency’s request for recommendations.
“Considering drains, ditches, stock ponds, impoundments, irrigation ditches, and low spots in farm fields and pastures as jurisdictional ‘waters’ opens the door to regulation of ordinary farming activities that move dirt or apply products to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey HPAI Update - Week of 4/6/25
Outbreak Summary
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 1.67 million turkeys have been lost to HPAI in 2025. This is up 499% year-over-year (YoY) and is down 56% from 2022 when the outbreak began. Of the turkeys impacted this year, 3% have been commercial breeder hens, 1% have been commercial breeder replacement hens, and 96% have been commercial meat birds. There have been 11 unique states impacted which is the largest YTD value since the start of the outbreak, up 83% YoY and up...
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