Rabobank: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand

Agricultural commodities were heavily impacted by trade wars, African swine fever, and erratic weather in 2019. According to the RaboResearch report "Outlook 2020: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand," many of these factors will remain key for agri commodity prices in 2020.

In 2019, agri commodity markets were impacted by several unprecedented incidents and uncommonly severe conditions. China's hog herd declined significantly, as a result of African swine fever (ASF). This drastically weakened demand for feed and, combined with the US-China trade war, resulted in a significant slowdown in the global soybean trade.

Meanwhile, record US corn- and soybean-planting delays drove corn prices from three-year lows to six-year highs within a few weeks. Then, improved...

Rabobank's Global Protein Outlook for 2020

In 2020, global animal protein faces an uncertain world, but opportunities can still be found. African swine fever dominates the outlook, having generated unprecedented change in 2019 – and we expect more in 2020. Trade disputes and sustainability are other notable challenges in the global animal protein complex. But there are also opportunities in global animal protein, such as recovery from ASF, winning on sustainability, and investing to secure ongoing trade flows.

Global Summary

African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the outlook for 2020 – as it has done during 2019 – and will pull down overall growth, as well as bring uncertainty to...

Rabobank: Poultry Q4 2019 Outlook 

Global poultry markets are expected to see some recovery in the coming months. However, this will be under fragile conditions. Key concerns are the ongoing oversupply situations in many global markets, like the EU, US and South Africa. Actually, only disease-affected China and Mexico, and Brazil (due to the combination of supply reduction and improved export demand), are performing relatively well. Other markets are suffering from oversupply.

Therefore, more disciplined supply should be the key to returning to profitability for the global poultry industry in 2H 2019. Notable positives are the expected ASF-related strength in pork prices, and the limited feed price upside risks, given the relatively good feed grain supply position expected in...

Tyson Foods Partners with Grupo Vibra to Continue its Global Growth Strategy

Buys a 40% stake in the foods division of the Brazilian poultry company

As part of its global growth strategy, Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) has reached an agreement to invest in the foods division of Grupo Vibra (“Vibra Foods”), a Brazilian producer and exporter of poultry products. Once completed, the deal will give Tyson Foods more flexibility in serving customers in key global markets. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed, and the transaction is still subject to approval by Brazilian regulators.

“This investment will enable us to access poultry supplies in Brazil to meet the growing needs of Brazilian customers and of priority demand markets in Asia, Europe and the Middle East,” said Donnie King, group president, international & chief administration officer for Tyson Foods. “It’s part of our strategy to develop a more flexible supply chain and mitigate the volatility of our previous model, which relied primarily on U.S. exports.”

Since last year, Tyson Foods has...

Pork Quarterly Q3 2019: Disease and Trade Issues are Jointly Changing the Global Market

Rising disease pressures are challenging the global market. Specifically, African swine fever (ASF) continues to threaten the global pork market, not only by causing a production drop in Asian countries, but also adding uncertainty to trade and production prospects in other parts of the world. While China’s pork prices have started to move higher, production responses in the rest of the world appear cautious. Other factors, including disease management and weather, are hindering production in Europe and Brazil. The resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations is a positive development, implying a chance for China to review tariffs on US pork imports.

China: Pig Herd Losses Growing

ASF continues to spread in China, with new cases mainly reported in South China. Live hog prices are finally...

Brazil Once Again Becomes the World’s Largest Beef Exporter

In 2018, Brazil was the world’s largest exporter of beef, providing close to 20 percent of total global beef exports, outpacing India, the second-largest exporter, by 527,000 metric tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE). Moreover, USDA projects that Brazil will continue its export growth trajectory for the next decade, reaching 2.9 million metric tons, or 23 percent of the world’s total beef exports, by 2028.

Brazil has the world’s second-largest cattle herd—232 million head—and its production is largely based on grass. Increased beef demand worldwide has stimulated increased production and productivity gains. In 2018, Brazil reached its highest level of beef production at 9.9 million metric tons. According to a September 2018 report by USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), programs...

Beef Quarterly Q2 2019: Changing of the Guard in the Beef Trimmings Market

The world’s largest beef importer, China, is at the centre of growth in beef trade in general, and trimmings trade specifically. Many of the cuts imported by China have been to satisfy the local cuisine. But as diets and foodservice change, this now includes a growing trend in trimmings trade.

The growing demand for trimmings from Asian countries will create additional competition for the US but it is not expected to shift the market yet. Suppliers of trimmings into the global market should be conscious of possible changes in the trade. While steady growth is evident in the Chinese market to date, a short-term demand increase across all proteins as a result of African Swine Fever will likely cause a spike in demand for trimmings...

USDA to Inspect Brazil Beef and Pork Products 

The USDA has announced that it will be carrying out an audit of the inspection system of agricultural establishments from June 10 to June 28 at the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. The inspection will include beef and pork from Brazil.

Minister Tereza Cristina stated, "This is an important step so that we can re-export, in the near future, fresh meat to the United States.

During an official visit of the Brazilian government to Washington last week, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture of Sonny Perdue established ...

Pork Quarterly Q1 2019: Another Uncertain Year – with More Complex Disease and Trade Issues

As 2019 gets underway, we see another year full of potential in global pork, with growth in production and demand in many parts of the world. Yet this is overshadowed by the uncertainty created by complex disease and trade issues, as can be read in the just-released RaboResearch report ‘Pork Quarterly Q1 2019: Another Uncertain Year – With More Complex Disease and Trade Issues’.

Report summary

Rising disease pressures are challenging the global market. “African swine fever (ASF) stands out as the single biggest challenge facing global pork in 2019,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein. “The changes ASF will bring create opportunities for some, and threats for others.” China’s need to lift imports will incentivise continued growth in key exporting countries, but how much pork China will import remains ...