Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q2 2020: COVID-19 Crisis Disrupts Global Pork Industry

Rabobank expects continued volatility in pork prices in 2020, as disruption in local markets is balanced with product shortfalls in Asia.

“The combined effect of near-term demand destruction and processing interruptions due to labor constraints has weakened producer returns and will slow production growth. Weaker GDP growth could further pressure pork demand, compounding an already challenging operating environment,” according to Christine McCracken, Senior Animal Protein Analyst.

China: Hog price strength reflects slow herd recovery and demand recovery

Hog prices remain elevated on African swine fever (ASF) herd losses and a gradual recovery in the production sector. Producer interest in rebuilding remains...

Rabobank: Initial Impacts of Covid-19 on the Brazilian Consumer

The coronavirus pandemic has inflicted significant pain on the Brazilian consumer, with unemployment rising and incomes set to decline in the coming months. Beyond the initial shock of the lockdown period, in which supermarkets and pharmacies have done well, consumer habits are set to change and resemble some of the trends seen during the last recession in 2015-2016.

Initial Shock and Wider Impact Ahead

- A large part of the country remains in social isolation mode, with no clarity as to when and how such measures will be relaxed or lifted. São Paulo state is signalling a continuation of the quarantine period until at least April 22.

- On April 13, Santa Catarina became the first state to announce the reopening of some retailers, with...

NCBA Statement on Beef from Brazil

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) Senior Director, International Trade and Market Access, Kent Bacus today released the following statement in response to the U.S. Department of Agriculture restoring access to the U.S. for Brazilian beef:

“NCBA strongly supports science-based trade and the Trump Administration’s efforts to enforce science-based trade with all trade partners. But to be clear, NCBA has serious concerns about the re-entry of Brazilian beef to the U.S. market.

“NCBA has frequently questioned the lack of scientific evidence that was used to justify Brazil’s initial access to the U.S. market in 2016, and unfortunately, we were not surprised when Brazil forfeited its beef access to the U.S. in 2017 due to numerous food safety violations. NCBA praised Secretary Perdue for standing up for science-based trade and holding Brazil accountable for their numerous violations by...

FSIS Lifts Suspension on Brazil’s Exports of Raw Intact Beef Products to the U.S.

FSIS takes very seriously the responsibility to ensure the safety of meat, poultry, and processed egg products for American consumers. FSIS recently conducted a targeted, on-site equivalence verifcation audit of Brazil’s raw intact beef products to verify the implementation of corrective actions in response to several audits and technical discussions since FSIS suspended the export of raw intact beef from Brazil in 2017.

FSIS uses a three-pronged approach to verify that a foreign country’s inspection system for imported meat, poultry, and processed egg products achieves an equivalent level of public health protection as the U.S. inspection system...

Brazil Beef Exports Jump on Strong Chinese Demand

Brazilian beef exports rose by 9.84% in January driven by a surge in sales to China, which faces fallout from a deadly disease that decimated a major portion of its pig population and boosted demand for other meats, trade group Abiec said on Wednesday.

Brazil's beef exports totaled 135,375 tonnes in the first month of the year, generating sales of $633.25 million, Abiec said.

“This is a positive result and in line with our growth estimates for this year," Antônio Camardelli, president of Abiec, said in a statement.

Shipments to China alone were 53,200 tonnes, an increase of...

China's Coronavirus Could Boost Brazil Meat Exports, CEOs Say

Brazil's largest meatpackers JBS SA and BRF SA said on Wednesday that the coronavirus outbreak could help boost Chinese demand for their products, as it fans concerns about domestic food safety in China.

However, one executive told Reuters that sales could be held back by aggressive demands for discounts from Chinese buyers.

BRF Chief Executive Officer Lorival Luz said on the sidelines of a conference in Sao Paulo that the epidemic could boost sales of foreign frozen and...

Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q1 2020: Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks

Rising disease pressures continue to challenge the global market and will remain the major change driver in global animal protein in 2020, according to Rabobank’s latest Pork Quarterly titled ‘Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks.’

“Although the severity of African swine fever’s (ASF) impact is subdued in some regions, the scope of the disease has expanded over recent months,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Animal Protein Analyst. “The ramifications in 2020 will lead to continuous caution on production expansion in some regions and higher import demand on the global balance sheet.” Several ongoing, regional trade-deal discussions will...

Rabobank: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand

Agricultural commodities were heavily impacted by trade wars, African swine fever, and erratic weather in 2019. According to the RaboResearch report "Outlook 2020: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand," many of these factors will remain key for agri commodity prices in 2020.

In 2019, agri commodity markets were impacted by several unprecedented incidents and uncommonly severe conditions. China's hog herd declined significantly, as a result of African swine fever (ASF). This drastically weakened demand for feed and, combined with the US-China trade war, resulted in a significant slowdown in the global soybean trade.

Meanwhile, record US corn- and soybean-planting delays drove corn prices from three-year lows to six-year highs within a few weeks. Then, improved...

Rabobank's Global Protein Outlook for 2020

In 2020, global animal protein faces an uncertain world, but opportunities can still be found. African swine fever dominates the outlook, having generated unprecedented change in 2019 – and we expect more in 2020. Trade disputes and sustainability are other notable challenges in the global animal protein complex. But there are also opportunities in global animal protein, such as recovery from ASF, winning on sustainability, and investing to secure ongoing trade flows.

Global Summary

African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the outlook for 2020 – as it has done during 2019 – and will pull down overall growth, as well as bring uncertainty to...

Rabobank: Poultry Q4 2019 Outlook 

Global poultry markets are expected to see some recovery in the coming months. However, this will be under fragile conditions. Key concerns are the ongoing oversupply situations in many global markets, like the EU, US and South Africa. Actually, only disease-affected China and Mexico, and Brazil (due to the combination of supply reduction and improved export demand), are performing relatively well. Other markets are suffering from oversupply.

Therefore, more disciplined supply should be the key to returning to profitability for the global poultry industry in 2H 2019. Notable positives are the expected ASF-related strength in pork prices, and the limited feed price upside risks, given the relatively good feed grain supply position expected in...

Tyson Foods Partners with Grupo Vibra to Continue its Global Growth Strategy

Buys a 40% stake in the foods division of the Brazilian poultry company

As part of its global growth strategy, Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) has reached an agreement to invest in the foods division of Grupo Vibra (“Vibra Foods”), a Brazilian producer and exporter of poultry products. Once completed, the deal will give Tyson Foods more flexibility in serving customers in key global markets. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed, and the transaction is still subject to approval by Brazilian regulators.

“This investment will enable us to access poultry supplies in Brazil to meet the growing needs of Brazilian customers and of priority demand markets in Asia, Europe and the Middle East,” said Donnie King, group president, international & chief administration officer for Tyson Foods. “It’s part of our strategy to develop a more flexible supply chain and mitigate the volatility of our previous model, which relied primarily on U.S. exports.”

Since last year, Tyson Foods has...

Pork Quarterly Q3 2019: Disease and Trade Issues are Jointly Changing the Global Market

Rising disease pressures are challenging the global market. Specifically, African swine fever (ASF) continues to threaten the global pork market, not only by causing a production drop in Asian countries, but also adding uncertainty to trade and production prospects in other parts of the world. While China’s pork prices have started to move higher, production responses in the rest of the world appear cautious. Other factors, including disease management and weather, are hindering production in Europe and Brazil. The resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations is a positive development, implying a chance for China to review tariffs on US pork imports.

China: Pig Herd Losses Growing

ASF continues to spread in China, with new cases mainly reported in South China. Live hog prices are finally...

Brazil Once Again Becomes the World’s Largest Beef Exporter

In 2018, Brazil was the world’s largest exporter of beef, providing close to 20 percent of total global beef exports, outpacing India, the second-largest exporter, by 527,000 metric tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE). Moreover, USDA projects that Brazil will continue its export growth trajectory for the next decade, reaching 2.9 million metric tons, or 23 percent of the world’s total beef exports, by 2028.

Brazil has the world’s second-largest cattle herd—232 million head—and its production is largely based on grass. Increased beef demand worldwide has stimulated increased production and productivity gains. In 2018, Brazil reached its highest level of beef production at 9.9 million metric tons. According to a September 2018 report by USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), programs...