Retailers Say Extending Trade War Past 2020 Elections Would Be ‘Bad Deal’ for U.S. Economy

The National Retail Federation today issued the following statement from Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French in response to President Trump’s comments that he might wait until after the 2020 elections to reach a trade agreement with China:

“We want and need to see a deal as soon as possible. The tariffs continue to hurt U.S. businesses, workers and consumers and are a substantial drag on the U.S. economy. Waiting another year to resolve the cost and uncertainty of the trade war is a bad deal not just for retailers and their customers but every segment of the economy from farmers who export their crops to...

Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q4 2019: Strong Demand to Test Supply in 2020

Beef will see a continuation of strong import demand from China in 2020, according to Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly for Q4 2019.

Report Summary

Strong demand will be the driving force in the global beef market in 2020, while beef production will experience slow growth.

“Although beef is not strictly a fungible product, demand and supply pressures will cause a redistribution of product among markets. Market participants will need to be vigilant for any...

U.S. Pork Can Reduce Overall U.S. Trade Deficit with China by Nearly Six Percent

Securing zero-tariff access to China for U.S. pork would be an economic boon for American agriculture and the country, according to the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). Based on an analysis by Iowa State University (ISU) Economist Dermot Hayes, NPPC says unrestricted access to the Chinese chilled and frozen market would reduce the overall trade deficit with China by nearly six percent and generate 184,000 new U.S. jobs in the next decade. NPPC today launched a digital campaign to spotlight the importance of opening the Chinese market to U.S. pork as trade negotiations continue.

“Were it not for China’s tariffs that are severely limiting access to American goods and other restrictions, including customs clearance delays, U.S. pork could be an economic powerhouse, creating thousands of new jobs, expanding sales and dramatically slashing our nation’s trade deficit. China’s actions would...

FSIS Releases List of 172 Poultry Plants Approved to Export to China 

Since China has announced it will lift its ban on imports of all U.S. poultry products, 172 U.S. poultry processing plants have been approved to export to China. The list of processing plants has been published on the U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service portal. United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated that China is an important export market for America's poultry farmers, and estimates indicate that more than $1 billion worth of poultry and poultry products will be exported to China each year.

Find the complete list from the FSIS here...

ANALYSIS: All Eyes on the West

With China once again opening their door to US poultry imports, we thought it would be a great opportunity to take a step back to assess the performance of legs and leg quarters throughout the years...

Rabobank: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand

Agricultural commodities were heavily impacted by trade wars, African swine fever, and erratic weather in 2019. According to the RaboResearch report "Outlook 2020: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand," many of these factors will remain key for agri commodity prices in 2020.

In 2019, agri commodity markets were impacted by several unprecedented incidents and uncommonly severe conditions. China's hog herd declined significantly, as a result of African swine fever (ASF). This drastically weakened demand for feed and, combined with the US-China trade war, resulted in a significant slowdown in the global soybean trade.

Meanwhile, record US corn- and soybean-planting delays drove corn prices from three-year lows to six-year highs within a few weeks. Then, improved...

US and China Could Sign ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Before Christmas, Pimco Predicts

A “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China could be finalized and signed before Christmas this year, according to an executive from bond investment giant Pimco.

Optimism that such an agreement could be reached between the two countries faded in recent days following reports that Washington and Beijing remained far apart on several issues. A Chinese government source told CNBC’s Eunice Yoon on Monday that China is troubled after U.S. President Donald Trump said he hasn’t agreed to roll back tariffs.

But John Studzinski, managing director and vice chairman of Pimco, said on Tuesday that he still thinks the two sides would...

ANALYSIS: Deciphering Chicken Dark Meat

News of China lifting its five-year ban on U.S poultry and therefore granting access to more than a billion dollars’ worth of potential export business for chicken and chicken products is making the rounds...

American Poultry Farmers Regain Access to China 

Today, China has announced it will lift its ban on imports of all U.S. poultry products. China has banned all U.S. poultry since January 2015 due to an avian influenza outbreak in December 2014, even though the United States has been free of the disease since August 2017. The United States is the world's second largest poultry exporter, with global exports of poultry meat and products of $4.3 billion last year.

According to an Urner Barry chicken analysis, China was the number two trade partner with the U.S. poultry industry before the ban. Prior to the ban, China was pulling in about 195.7 thousand metric tons of U.S. chicken annually. Of that tonnage, approximately 77.7 thousand metric tons were...

Rabobank's Global Protein Outlook for 2020

In 2020, global animal protein faces an uncertain world, but opportunities can still be found. African swine fever dominates the outlook, having generated unprecedented change in 2019 – and we expect more in 2020. Trade disputes and sustainability are other notable challenges in the global animal protein complex. But there are also opportunities in global animal protein, such as recovery from ASF, winning on sustainability, and investing to secure ongoing trade flows.

Global Summary

African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the outlook for 2020 – as it has done during 2019 – and will pull down overall growth, as well as bring uncertainty to...

USMEF Elects New Officer Team, Examines Trade Challenges

The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) concluded its Strategic Planning Conference in Tucson, Ariz., with the election of new officers. Cevin Jones, a cattle feeder from Eden, Idaho, was elected USMEF chair. He succeeds Iowa pork producer Conley Nelson.

“My first involvement with USMEF was when I was marketing chair with the Idaho Cattle Association,” recalled Jones, who along with his brother operates Intermountain Beef, a custom feedlot. “As part of my duties I would go to national conventions where USMEF staff and leadership shared information about their work in international markets. This was a tremendous eye-opener. I valued the importance of export markets then, but value them even more today.”

Jones became president of the Idaho Cattle Association in November 2003, shortly before one of the most disruptive events in the history of the U.S. beef industry...

China’s Recovery from African Swine Fever: Rebuilding, Relocating, and Restructuring

African swine fever (ASF) has already caused huge herd losses and led to soaring pork prices in China in 2019. We believe the disease will continue to spread in the country in the coming years. However, we expect the pace of herd loss to slow down, due to industry participants’ reactions and policy changes. Restocking will likely take around five years, but hog herd levels may find it difficult to recover to pre-ASF levels.

“In addition to the direct impact on the hog herd, ASF will reshape the development of China’s hog supply chain in the coming years,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at Rabobank. “During the rebuilding process...

Retail Imports to See Final Tariff-Driven Surge of the Year

Imports at the nation’s major retail container ports are expected to see their final surge of the year this month ahead of new tariffs set to take effect in December, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers are highly competitive, but the ability to compete has been challenging this year because of the uncertainty of the trade war and continued tariff escalation,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers are encouraged by reports that China and the United States have agreed to remove at least some of the existing tariffs once a ‘phase one’ deal is signed. We are eager to see concrete evidence that the trade war is coming to an end with...

Roquette and Yili Sign a Strategic Cooperation Agreement

Roquette, a global leader in plant-based ingredients for Food, Nutrition and Health markets, and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd., one of the largest dairy companies in Asia, signed today a long-term strategic cooperation agreement at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Mr. Pan Gang, Board Chairman and President of Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. and Mr. Edouard Roquette, Chairman of the Board of Roquette, signed the agreement during an economic forum hosted by the Chinese President Xi Jinping and the French President Emmanuel Macron.

The contract covers the purchase of Roquette products from Yili in the next three years, and reinforces the already existing business relationship of both leading companies in Chinese Food markets. Roquette and Yili will...

National Pork Board Study Defines China’s Growing Need For Protein

A new report from the National Pork Board digs into the growing short- and long-term protein needs facing China and how U.S. pork can position itself to meet that demand. The new report, Pork 2040: China Market Assessment, also reveals the impact that African swine fever (ASF) is having on both China’s short- and long-term protein needs and how the Chinese pork industry and supply chain will change as a result.

The research study was conducted by Gira, a global research firm, using Pork Checkoff dollars and funds from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services Emerging Markets Program (EMP). It outlines critical insights that exporters of U.S. pork can use now to position themselves for long-term success in the...

Pork Quarterly Q4 2019 – Producers Remain Cautious on Expansion as Risks Outweigh Rewards

Global pork prices continue to rise, as protein shortfalls intensify competition for a shrinking supply, according to Rabobank’s Pork Quarterly Q4 2019.

Pork prices have hit record highs in some regions, while trade barriers continue to limit the upside in the US and Canada. prices will continue to increase through Q4 2019 and into 2020, as markets work to balance supply and demand. “Despite rising economic incentives, we expect a limited global production response, as environmental and regulatory constraints, along with the threat of African swine fever (ASF), constrain the industry’s ability to expand,” according to...

ANALYSIS: China Trade Talks Suggest a Light is at the End of the Tunnel

Current trade discussions between the US and China stand to benefit the US poultry industry which has been unable to export to China since 2015...

Pig Feet from Britain to be Shipped to China

Six sites in Britain have been given official approval to export pig feet to China in a new agreement announced today.

Exports will be able to commence shortly after the sites – five in England and one in Scotland – were confirmed to meet Chinese requirements.

It will be the first time these sites in Britain, which belong to Cranswick, Karro and Tulip, have exported pig feet to China. While pig feet have relatively low demand in the UK, they are prized in the Chinese market.

The news comes just days after the government announced beef from the UK will be exported to...

Beef Exports from Ireland to China Resume 

Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Michael Creed TD, today announced that following the Chinese audit of beef plants last month, 14 further beef plants have been approved from today to export to the Chinese market.

Minister Creed said, "I am delighted that all of the beef plants which were audited in September have now been approved by the Chinese Authorities." There are now no outstanding plant applications.

He said, "This is the strongest endorsement possible of Irish food safety standards, we were the first country in western Europe to achieve access to the Chinese market and now it is clear that...

Retailers Welcome Progress on Trade, say Administration has Listened to Concerns

The National Retail Federation today issued the following statement from Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French after the Trump administration announced that a scheduled tariff hike from 25 percent to 30 percent on $250 billion worth of goods from China will not take place next week as negotiators finalize a tentative trade deal.

“Retailers are encouraged by the progress made between the United States and China and are pleased that the administration has listened to the concerns of the business community as the trade war takes an increasing toll on the American economy. The decision to delay planned tariff hikes is...

Rabobank: A Global Update on African Swine Fever 

While African swine fever continues to devastate pig herds and production in China, the focus is now shifting to other parts of Asia, given recent outbreaks in the Philippines, South Korea, and Timor-Leste, according to the latest African Swine Fever Global Update by RaboResearch.

The spread of ASF in Asia, outside of China, has captured attention

“The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) across Asia are likely to be just as challenging as they have been in China, and we expect to see herd and production losses growing as we move into 2020,” says Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist - Animal Protein. “At the same time, price levels in China – for pigs and pork, as well as for other proteins – keep climbing, and...