ANALYSIS: Pork Bellies Collapse to 1999 Levels

The last time pork bellies were trading at this level, you were probably more concerned with Y2K than what to do with excess bellies. We’re forced to turn the history books back to 1999 to see...

Restaurants in America Offer Contactless Delivery Similar to China's Model

During the wake of the coronavirus outbreak in China, the country began taking extraordinary steps to prevent the spread of the virus by introducing contactless delivery services to keep customers and employees safe. As part of the process, customers order remotely via mobile phones or computers, and workers seal the meals in bags and place them in a pre-determined location without any human contact.

Some reports stated that these contactless delivery options also come with a card that provides the name and temperature of the person who made the food, as well as the person who delivered it. Quick service chains taking these precautions in China include McDonald's, Starbucks, and...

USDA Announces Expanded Red Meat Access to China as Phase One Trade Deal Moves Forward

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced continued progress in the implementation of agriculture provisions in the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement.

The new actions are led by increased access for red meat and poultry into China. According to the statement, U.S. beef producers, for the first time since 2003, will have access to nearly all beef products into China.

An expansion of pork products that will be allowed into Chinese ports was also included in the...

China to Encourage Local Governments to Stockpile Poultry, Aquaculture Products

China said on Wednesday that it encourages local governments to temporarily stockpile poultry and aquaculture products in a bid to support the farming sectors after the unprecedented coronavirus cut production and supplies.

China will increase fiscal and tax support for poultry and aquaculture producers to help them survive the impact from coronavirus containment measures, according to a statement jointly issued by the state planner and the country's agriculture ministry.

Lockdowns on people and goods to curb the outbreak has disrupted logistics and production in the farming sector, threatening...

USMEF Statement on Expanded Access to China for U.S. Beef and Pork

The USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has updated its Export Library for China to reflect expanded access for U.S. beef and pork. These changes were among the provisions negotiated in the U.S.-China “Phase One” trade agreement.

U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Dan Halstrom issued the following statement:

"This is an exciting day for the U.S. beef and pork industries, which have waited a long time to have more meaningful and reliable access to China, and USMEF thanks USTR and USDA for their tireless efforts to negotiate and implement the...

Yum China Provides Business Update 

Yum China Holdings, Inc. updated stakeholders on the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation.

The current COVID-19 situation is one of unprecedented scale and impact, and first and foremost we want to give thanks and appreciation to all the medical personnel, government workers, volunteers and other frontline workers who have put public health and safety above their own in fighting this global pandemic. At Yum China, our commitment has been to safety above all else -- safety for our employees, as they operate in this difficult environment; and safety for our customers, as they...

Rabobank: Coronavirus and African Swine Fever to Shake Up Global Poultry Markets

The outlook for global poultry in 2020 will be materially affected by the current coronavirus pandemic, and the ongoing African swine fever (ASF) challenges in the pork industry will bring additional complexity to global markets.

Rabobank expects a further drop in pork production in Asia this year, which could lead to potential growth in local poultry production and international trade, if rising supply chain challenges can be managed. As coronavirus is now expected to cause a global economic slowdown, poultry demand could...

ANALYSIS: COVID-19 and the Pork Market

Analyzing a situation at the beginning or in the middle of a market-moving event is never an easy task, and with Coronavirus, this fact rings truer than ever. In truth, it has not been that long since...

PODCAST: Have We Peaked? Coronavirus and African Swine Fever in China

This week Laura sits down with Todd Thurman of Swinetex to discuss the African swine fever situation in China and restocking efforts. With COVID-19 complicating an already serious situation, what can the pork industry expect...

ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on YoY Chicken Prices

With Q2 just around the corner, we thought it would be a good opportunity to gain some perspective on the YoY performance of some key items within the chicken complex...

Coronavirus Impacts Meat Consumption in China 

One of the many effects from the coronavirus outbreak in China is the impacts it has had on food consumption and the demand for meat.

At the height of the outbreak, nearly all foodservice establishments were closed, with some attempting to resume business now. However, restaurants that have managed to remain open are facing a sharp decline as consumers are staying indoors. A few restaurants switched to a delivery-only model during this time to help cash flow, but consumers are still hesitant of ordering and interacting with delivery drivers.

According to Darin Friedrichs, Senior Asia Commodity Analyst at INTL FCStone, consumer sentiment has been improving as China continues to...

Rabobank: China's Growing Appetite for Meat Alternatives

‘Meat alternative’ has become a global buzzword since Beyond Meat conducted its stellar Nasdaq IPO. Since then, many meat alternative startups began looking into the Chinese market. The rise of the numerous Chinese startups, such as OmniPork and Zhenmeat, hinge on the belief that China will be a potential consumption market for meat alternatives.

Meat alternatives have been discussed a lot by the public media in the past year. The global frontrunners are US-based companies making beef-like burgers with plant-based ingredients, like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods. Since Beyond Meat’s IPO, China has witnessed nearly 100 plant-based brands emerge in cities like...

Coronavirus Impact on Imports Expected to Be Larger and Longer than Previously Expected

The coronavirus outbreak is expected to have a longer and larger impact on imports at major U.S. retail container ports than previously believed as factory shutdowns and travel restrictions in China continue to affect production, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“There are still a lot of unknowns to fully determine the impact of the coronavirus on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “As factories in China continue to come back online, products are now flowing again. But there are still issues affecting cargo movement, including...

Nielsen: Opportunity Looms to Chinese Retailers Despite Epidemic Outbreak

Nielsen closely tracked the latest developments in the retail industry and released the report titled "COVID-19 is a Challenge, but also an Opportunity, for China's Retail Industry."

The research involves key retail companies and over 10,000 traditional grocery stores, and offers in-depth analysis of the retailers' challenges and responses to the outbreak, as well as the changes and opportunities the sector will face once the epidemic is over.

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic at the beginning of 2020 has adversely influenced China's retail industry, especially the brick-and-mortar retailers. But some retailers, who got well prepared and...

Technomic’s Take: COVID-19, The Foodservice View

The coronavirus (COVID-19) has become a familiar part of our lexicon in a very short period of time. Since its appearance in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, world and government agencies are fearful that the COVID-19 outbreak could turn into the world’s most severe pandemic since the H1N1 influenza of 1918. As of March 4, more than 93,000 coronavirus cases have been confirmed, resulting in over 3,000 deaths.

China represents more than 85% of the cases and about 95% of the fatalities, however, the virus has spread to over 73 countries and territories and the number of cases outside of China is growing at concerning rates. The outbreak is expected to have a major impact on an already tenuous worldwide economy, with economists recently downgrading global GDP expectations anywhere from...

Coronavirus Complicates the African Swine Fever Outlook

While African swine fever remains the dominant issue in global animal protein – with change continuing in China, Southeast Asia and Europe – Coronavirus is now complicating the outlook.

For China, and most of global animal protein, 2019 was a year of unprecedented change. China’s pork production declined by over 20% in 2019, hog and pork prices reached record levels and dragged other protein prices up with them, and animal protein imports were above, or close to, record levels across the species. ASF also impacted pig herds and pork production in other parts of the world – across north Asia and Southeast Asia, and in some parts of Europe. Global animal protein trade was heavily shaped by ASF in 2019, with China’s record demand influencing many markets.

In China, the number of new ASF cases, and the number of re-infections, has been declining. In other parts of Asia, the disease continues to spread, with...

Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q1: China in the Front Seat for Beef Imports in 2020

We are yet again experiencing a major disruption to one of the world’s largest beef importers, China. “The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has had a major impact on foodservice and trade. With foodservice as the main channel for sales, beef is expected to feel the impact more than others. Indications from the 2003 SARS outbreak suggest that once the virus is contained, sales and trade should rebound quickly. However, the timeframe for control remains uncertain,” according to senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.

In other developments:

US trade deals

Progress was made on the USMCA, and the Japan/US trade deal was approved in December. These were closely followed by the signing of the phase-one US-China trade agreement in January. Although questions remain on...

ANALYSIS: Freezer Burn

In light of the recent attention being placed on China, a central focus of chicken processors and exporters has been the back half of the bird, and with good reason...

Coronavirus Hits Chinese Soy Supply Chain, Lowering Consumption and Import Needs

The outbreak of coronavirus (designated as Covid-19 by the WHO) will hit Chinese soy oil and soymeal consumption, primarily in Q1 and early Q2 2020. Barring an extreme escalation of the epidemic, both are expected to register a robust rebound in 2H 2020.

Due to weakened Chinese demand, strong competition from South America, and seasonal trade patterns, China’s import pace of US soybeans will remain slow in the coming months. Lower-than-previously-anticipated procurement of US soybeans, might run the risk of reigniting the trade war during the US election campaign.

This research is based on the information available to date. As the situation remains fluid, Rabobank is closely monitoring the developments and...

NRF Says Consumers Continue to Drive Economy, Forecasts Retail Sales will Grow

The National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales during 2020 will increase between 3.5 percent and 4.1 percent to more than $3.9 trillion despite uncertainty from the lingering trade war, coronavirus and the presidential election.

“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “With gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence, we expect another healthy year ahead. There are always wild cards we cannot control like coronavirus and...

Rabobank: Supply Chains in the Midst of Coronavirus Outbreak 

Containment measures to avoid the further spread of the coronavirus are affecting Chinese and global logistics supply chains. China’s domestic transport sector is disrupted, and global logistics operators are seeing their volumes reduced. It will be a challenge to contain the virus with as little interruption to supply chains as possible and to revert to normal quickly.

Containing Measures Are Taking a Toll

In the attempt to contain the spread of coronavirus, the Chinese government enforced a series of stringent quarantine measures that are taking a high toll on domestic and global supply chains.

Hubei province, where the virus started, and Wuhan, its main city, have been on lockdown since the start of the disease. The government extended the Lunar New Year holiday for an extra week, gaining time to contain the disease. However...

USDA and USTR Announce Progress on Implementation of U.S.-China Phase One Agreement  

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced today that China has taken numerous actions to begin implementing its agriculture-related commitments under the landmark U.S.-China Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement on schedule. The agreement entered into force on February 14, 2020. 

These actions include:

•Signing a protocol that allows the importation of U.S. fresh chipping potatoes (U.S. Chipping Potatoes Protocol Announcement); 
•Lifting the ban on imports of U.S. poultry and poultry products, including pet food containing poultry products (Poultry and Poultry Products Announcement); 
•Lifting restrictions on imports of...

Rabobank: Foodservice Industry Continues to Suffer from Coronavirus Outbreak

The coronavirus has had a huge impact in China, and with the virus still not under control, the foodservice industry will continue to suffer. Therefore, it is very likely that 2020 will be a difficult year.

China’s Foodservice Industry Continues to Suffer

The coronavirus outbreak will continue to impact the foodservices industry, as many of the foodservice stores, such as Starbucks, Haidilao, McDonald’s, and Yum China remain closed until further notice. With no clear sign that things will get back to normal soon, we estimate that the 50%-80% revenue losses felt during the Chinese New Year could last longer. Table 1 below shows the industry’s 2020 sales growth based on the 50%-80% revenue losses model, lasting...

Rabobank Assesses Coronavirus Impact on the Chinese Dairy Sector

The outbreak of coronavirus is disrupting the entire dairy supply chain in China. Although, for now, we have only limited information and anecdotal evidence, Rabobank assesses the impact on the Chinese dairy market because the potential effects on the global dairy commodities market should not be ignored. The situation remains fluid, and Rabobank is monitoring the developments closely.

Disruption to the Entire Supply Chain

While the impact of the epidemic on the demand for dairy should be short term, the uncertainty over the actual duration of the impact and the lingering psychological impact could potentially bring meaningful damage to consumption, which then affects...

February Retail Imports to See Larger Drop Amid Coronavirus

With coronavirus causing longer Lunar New Year shutdowns of factories in China, imports at major U.S. retail container ports are expected to see a sharper-than-usual drop this month, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“February is historically a slow month for imports because of Lunar New Year and the lull between retailers’ holiday season and summer, but this is an unusual situation,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Many Chinese factories have already stayed closed longer than usual, and...

Yum China Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2019 Results

Yum China Holdings, Inc. today reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2019. Reported GAAP results include Special Items, which are excluded from adjusted measures. Special Items are not allocated to any segment and therefore only impact reported GAAP results of Yum China. See "Reconciliation of Reported GAAP Results to Adjusted Measures" within this release.

Fourth Quarter Highlights

• Total revenues increased 6% year over year to $2.03 billion from $1.91 billion (8% increase excluding foreign currency translation ("F/X")).
• Total system sales grew 8% year over year, with growth of 10% at KFC and 1% at Pizza Hut, excluding F/X.
• Same-store sales grew 2% year over year, with a 3% increase at KFC and flat same-store sales at...

China Xiangtai Food Co. Reports 300% Supermarket Sales Growth Amidst the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

China Xiangtai Food Co. Ltd., an emerging growth company primarily engaged in pork processing in China, today announced that its supermarket sales growth of 300% during Chinese New Year 2020 compared to the same period of last year despite of the ongoing 2019 Novel Coronavirus.

To meet the public demand for food and to stabilize the pork price in the market, the Company has increased its efforts to ease the negative impact of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus on food supplies by continuing operating its business with transparency and integrity, keeping its pork price fair and stable, and...

Brazil Beef Exports Jump on Strong Chinese Demand

Brazilian beef exports rose by 9.84% in January driven by a surge in sales to China, which faces fallout from a deadly disease that decimated a major portion of its pig population and boosted demand for other meats, trade group Abiec said on Wednesday.

Brazil's beef exports totaled 135,375 tonnes in the first month of the year, generating sales of $633.25 million, Abiec said.

“This is a positive result and in line with our growth estimates for this year," Antônio Camardelli, president of Abiec, said in a statement.

Shipments to China alone were 53,200 tonnes, an increase of...

African Swine Fever Shrinks Pork Production in China, Swells Demand for Imported Pork

Although the rapid spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) across China decimated the world’s largest swine herd in 2019, it has created significant export opportunities for the U.S. pork industry. In the United States, recent industry expansion and low prices helped the industry export more pork to China, despite high retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork.

After the first cases of ASF in China were reported in August 2018, the virus spread to every province by mid-2019. Assessments by industry observers suggest that the number of ASF outbreaks and losses of swine far exceeded officially reported numbers. As mentioned earlier, China’s swine herd was decimated—both by...

Rabobank: Coronavirus Brings Risks for Foodservice

The coronavirus outbreak will impact foodservice revenues in the short term in China. Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are the most vulnerable markets outside of China. Foodservice players could face challenges such as supply disruptions and lack of personnel. Players will also have to consider strategic changes in the way they operate if they want to retain clients and secure long-term growth.

China’s Foodservice Industry Hardest Hit if the Coronavirus Outbreak Drags On

China is bearing the immediate brunt of the Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak, with Wuhan city under lockdown. Chinese consumers in other provinces are also encouraged to avoid public spaces to lower the probability of...

Coronavirus Fears Result in Canceled Flights to China as CDC Raises Travel Advisory to Level 3 

On Thursday the World Health Organization convened to discuss the coronavirus outbreak in China and declared a "public health emergency of international concern." More flights to China (or out of China) are getting canceled as fears over the coronavirus rise.

China's National Health Commission confirmed on Friday that, as of midnight of January 30, the total number of confirmed infections of the virus has climbed to 9,692. This number includes 213 deaths. The number of infected climbs to...