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Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q1 2020: Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks
Rising disease pressures continue to challenge the global market and will remain the major change driver in global animal protein in 2020, according to Rabobank’s latest Pork Quarterly titled ‘Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks.’
“Although the severity of African swine fever’s (ASF) impact is subdued in some regions, the scope of the disease has expanded over recent months,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Animal Protein Analyst. “The ramifications in 2020 will lead to continuous caution on production expansion in some regions and higher import demand on the global balance sheet.” Several ongoing, regional trade-deal discussions will...
African Poultry Sector Remains Strong Opportunity for Investors
According to a recent Rabobank report, the time is now for investors that are looking to stake their claim in the African poultry industry.
A report authored by Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst, Animal Protein, said that local and international investors are eyeing the steady growth for both the African poultry and egg industries over the past decade and see the region as a strong investment opportunity...
Rabobank’s initial report on investment opportunities in African poultry, “Time for Africa” was released in 2017, and Mulder provided an update on an opportunity...
Retailers Welcome Phase One Trade Deal with China but Say Remaining Tariffs Must End
The National Retail Federation welcomed the signing of a “phase one” trade agreement between the United States and China but said work remains to be done to end the trade war between the two countries.
“NRF strongly supports the administration’s efforts to address China’s unfair trading practices but we hope this is the first step toward eliminating all of the tariffs imposed over the past two years,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The trade war won’t be over until all of these tariffs are gone. We are glad to see...
Industry Applauds Senate Ratification of the USMCA
The Senate passed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, by a bipartisan vote of 89-10. The USMCA will advance United States agricultural interests in two of the most important markets for American farmers, ranchers, and agribusiness. The agreement builds upon existing markets to expand U.S. food and agricultural exports while supporting food processing and rural jobs. Canada and Mexico are the first and second largest export markets for U.S. food and agricultural products, totaling more than $39.7 billion food and agricultural exports in 2018, supporting 325,000 American jobs. Now, the USMCA will be heading to President Trump's desk for his signature.
Sonny Perdue, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, said, "We’ve long waited for this day and now USMCA will finally head to the President’s desk. The passage of USMCA is great news for America’s farmers and ranchers. With Congressional consideration now complete...
What the Trade Agreement with China Means for the Meat and Poultry Industry
The Phase One economic and trade agreement signed by the United States and China on January 15, 2020, will provide U.S. exporters of beef, pork, and poultry, as well as live breeding cattle with expanded access to China’s rapidly growing market.
Market Overview: As incomes rise in China, demand for protein in diets increases as well. Chinese demand for imported beef, pork, and poultry is growing at a rapid rate, made more acute due to domestic pork supply constraints in China as a result of the ongoing outbreak of African swine fever. When China partially re-opened its market to U.S. beef and beef products in 2017, following a 13-year ban, many unscientific restrictions remained, including...
Industry Reacts to Phase One Trade Agreement with China
President Donald Trump signed a Phase One trade agreement with China today. The agreement says that China will increase purchases of U.S. manufacturing, energy, and agricultural goods and services by at least $200 billion over two years. As part of the deal, the Trump Administration scrapped tariffs initially set to take effect in December, and agreed to cut tariffs on $120 billion in products to 7.5%. However, tariffs on another $250 billion in Chinese goods will remain in place for now. Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary, stated a second phase could include more tariff relief.
The National Cattlemen's Beef Association applauded the signing of the deal with China, saying the agreement will lay the groundwork for American-produced beef to be highly competitive in the world's most populous market. “The Phase One Agreement with China will be a game changer for the U.S. beef industry. For many years, Chinese consumers have been...
Joint Statement of the Trilateral Meeting of the Trade Ministers of Japan, the US, and the EU
Mr. Kajiyama Hiroshi, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer, United States Trade Representative, and Mr. Phil Hogan, European Commissioner for Trade, met in Washington, D.C. on 14 January 2020.
On industrial subsidies, the Ministers discussed ways to strengthen existing WTO rules on industrial subsidies and agreed upon the following:
1. The current list of prohibited subsidies provided for in Article 3.1 of the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM) is insufficient to tackle market and trade distorting subsidization existing in certain jurisdictions. Therefore, new types of unconditionally prohibited subsidies need to be added to the ASCM. These are...
Chlorine-Washed Chicken and Hormone-Treated Beef Ban to Remain After Brexit
Chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef will not be allowed into the UK under any trade deal with the US, the Environment Secretary has told the BBC’s Countryfile program.
In an exclusive interview, Theresa Villiers told presenter Tom Heap that the current EU ban on such imports will be carried over into UK legislation following Brexit.
Ms Villiers said: “We will not be importing chlorinated-chicken. We will not be importing hormone-treated beef. Both of those are...
ANALYSIS: Variety Meat Exports to Mexico See an Impressive Increase in Value YoY
According to data released by the USDA and compiled by the USMEF, November exports of beef were below the previous year's large totals. However, in Mexico, exports increased...
Retail Imports Settling Down After Year of Tariff Surges
After a year of fluctuations driven by the uncertainty of the trade war with China, volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to return to its usual seasonal patterns during the first few months of 2020, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“We’ll be more confident after we see the Phase One agreement signed, but right now 2020 looks like it should be back to what used to be normal,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We’ve been through a cycle of imports surging ahead of expected tariff increases – some of which got delayed, reduced or canceled – and falling off again afterward. That’s not good for retailers trying to manage...
November Pork Exports Shatter Previous Records; Beef Exports Trail 2018
U.S. pork exports posted the best month on record in November, easily reaching new highs in both volume and value, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). November exports of U.S. beef were below the previous year’s large totals.
Pork exports surged to 259,812 metric tons (mt) in November, up 26% year-over-year and 11% above the previous high set in July 2019. Export value was $712.7 million, up 32% from a year ago and breaking the previous record (also from July 2019) by 14%. These results pushed January-November exports 7% above...
NPPC Applauds Senate Committee Approval of USMCA
Today, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee approved the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, which once implemented will provide much-needed certainty to U.S. pork producers.
“We thank Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) for making USMCA passage a top priority and we thank those members of the committee who support this important trade deal,” said National Pork Producers Council President David Herring, a hog farmer from Lillington, N.C. “USMCA will allow the U.S. pork industry to maintain long-term, zero-duty market access to two of our largest export markets.
“We now urge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to schedule a vote on the floor...
Ambassador Lighthizer Issues Statement on House Passage of the USMCA
United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer issued the following statement after the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by a vote of 385-41:
“House passage of the USMCA with such huge bipartisan support is a major milestone and shows just how much President Trump is successfully changing U.S. trade policy so it works for the benefit of American workers, farmers, ranchers and businesses. The USMCA is expected to create between 176,000 and 589,000 new American jobs and substantially increase economic growth. The International Trade Commission’s analysis shows that...
Rabobank: Poultry Quarterly Q1 2020
The outlook for global poultry in 2020 is slightly more positive than it was in 2019, when markets suffered from relative oversupply. A key driver of the gradual recovery will be ongoing strength in trade flows to Asia in order to supply African swine fever-affected markets such as China, Vietnam, South Korea, and the Philippines. These trade flows will be positive for dark-meat prices, though they will be subject to increasing volatility. Improved beef prices (the main substitute for fresh poultry), stable global average feed prices, and more balanced supply will also all support the gradual recovery. The downside is that global whole-bird and breast-meat markets will remain pressured and have limited price upside.
African swine fever (ASF) will increasingly push chicken expansion in Asia in 2020. This will help fill the gap in local protein markets affected by ASF, but it also...
USTR On Reports of Tariff Cuts in Exchange for Certain Purchases--"Utterly False"
Bob Davis and Lingling Wei at the Wall Street Journal, based on anonymous sources, have reported at least three times this week that the United States negotiators offered to cut by as much as one half the tariff rates on approximately $360 billion of Chinese imports in exchange for certain purchases.
While we do not comment on the content of negotiations, we have said publicly and on the record that this is totally false, untrue and baseless. It did not happen.
In addition and to be completely clear, we have personally, and on the record, told Mr. Davis and another Wall Street Journal reporter repeatedly that this is...
Retailers Call China Trade Announcement 'Right Direction' but Say a Final Deal is Needed
The National Retail Federation today welcomed news that the United States and China have agreed on a “phase one” trade deal.
“For the first time in months, the United States and China are moving in the right direction on tariffs, and we congratulate negotiators from both sides for the progress they have made,” NRF Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French said. “Tariffs create uncertainty and costs for American retail supply chains, and the trade war won’t be over until they are eliminated completely. We agree that we need to realign our relationship with China, but tariffs that harm...
NCBA Welcomes First Phase In U.S.-China Trade Deal
National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) CEO Colin Woodall issued the following statement regarding today's announcement that the U.S. and China have agreed to a phase one trade deal:
“The announcement of a phase one deal with China is welcome news for the U.S. beef industry. While we wait to learn more about the details of the agreement, we are optimistic that this positive news will bring long lasting relief to farmers and ranchers who have been targeted with China’s retaliatory tariffs for many months.” said Woodall. “While tariffs grab most of the headlines, China’s unjustifiable...
Industry Reacts to Agreement on USMCA
United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced agreement on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Mexico approved U.S. changes to the USMCA, paving the way for a congressional ratification. The Trump Administration worked closely with Congressional Democrats to address their concerns in the revisions to the trade agreement.
The USMCA will advance U.S. agricultural interests in two of the most important markets for American farmers, ranchers, and agribusiness. This high-standard agreement builds upon the country's existing markets to expand United States food and agricultural exports while supporting food processing and rural jobs. According to the USDA, Canada and Mexico are the first and...
Secretary Perdue Statement on USMCA Agreement
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue issued the following statement after United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced agreement on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA): “USMCA is a big win for American workers and the economy, especially for our farmers and ranchers. The agreement improves virtually every component of the old NAFTA, and the agriculture industry stands to gain significantly,” said Secretary Perdue. “President Trump and Ambassador Lighthizer are laying the foundation for a stronger farm economy through USMCA and I thank them for all their hard work and perseverance to get the agreement across the finish line. While I am very encouraged by today’s breakthrough...
Retail Imports Surged in November Ahead of December Tariffs
Volume at the nation’s major container ports bumped up significantly in November as retailers imported merchandise ahead of new tariffs set to take effect this month, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“At this point, holiday merchandise is already in the country, so the direct impact of new tariffs won’t be seen until the season is over,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Nonetheless, tariffs are bad for both consumer and business confidence, and we hope that the December tariffs will be canceled or postponed as a sign of good faith. We need a deal with China as soon as possible so we can...
China Fuels October Pork Exports; Beef Exports Down from Last Year
Strong demand from China bolstered U.S. pork exports in October, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Export Federation (USMEF), while October beef exports were below the very high totals posted a year ago.
October pork exports increased 8.5% year-over-year to 225,376 metric tons (mt), while export value climbed 10% to $592 million. January-October export volume was 5% ahead of last year’s pace at 2.13 million mt, while value increased 3% to $5.48 billion.
Pork export value averaged $48.13 per head slaughtered in October, up 4% from a year ago. For January through October, the per-head average was...
Rabobank: Global Beef Trade Into the 2020s
Global Beef Trade Continues to Grow
Global beef trade has continued to grow over the last five years, fueled by growing import demand, and supported by trade agreements and improved access to new and existing markets. This growing demand, seen predominantly in Asian markets, is illustrated in the latest Rabobank World Beef Map, which shows a heavy concentration of trade flows into Asia.
Rabobank believes that beef trade will continue to rise over the next five years, supported by strong importer demand. African swine fever (ASF) will provide a short-term, intense increase in demand, but strong fundamentals of increasing wealth and changing diets in Asian countries support ongoing demand for protein. To meet this growth in demand, we believe production and beef exports will also...
USMEF Statement on Approval of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement
On Dec. 4, the Upper House of the Japanese Parliament approved the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which will greatly improve access for U.S. red meat in Japan. Key provisions of the agreement, which was approved by Japan’s Lower House on Nov. 19, were released in October by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom issued this statement:
With the U.S.-Japan trade agreement now approved by the Japanese Parliament, the U.S. beef and pork industries look forward to expanded opportunities in Japan, which is already the largest value destination for U.S. pork and beef exports (combined export value in 2018 was $3.7 billion). This agreement is one of the...
Retailers Say Extending Trade War Past 2020 Elections Would Be ‘Bad Deal’ for U.S. Economy
The National Retail Federation today issued the following statement from Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French in response to President Trump’s comments that he might wait until after the 2020 elections to reach a trade agreement with China:
“We want and need to see a deal as soon as possible. The tariffs continue to hurt U.S. businesses, workers and consumers and are a substantial drag on the U.S. economy. Waiting another year to resolve the cost and uncertainty of the trade war is a bad deal not just for retailers and their customers but every segment of the economy from farmers who export their crops to...
USMEF Statement on European Parliament’s Approval of U.S.-EU Beef Access Agreement
On Nov. 28, the European Parliament voted to approve a plan granting the United States a country-specific share of the European Union’s duty-free high-quality beef quota. The agreement, which was signed and announced in August, is detailed in this press release from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).
U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Dan Halstrom issued the following statement:
Approval by the European Parliament keeps this agreement on track for implementation in early 2020, which is...
Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q4 2019: Strong Demand to Test Supply in 2020
Beef will see a continuation of strong import demand from China in 2020, according to Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly for Q4 2019.
Strong demand will be the driving force in the global beef market in 2020, while beef production will experience slow growth.
“Although beef is not strictly a fungible product, demand and supply pressures will cause a redistribution of product among markets. Market participants will need to be vigilant for any...
U.S. Pork Can Reduce Overall U.S. Trade Deficit with China by Nearly Six Percent
Securing zero-tariff access to China for U.S. pork would be an economic boon for American agriculture and the country, according to the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). Based on an analysis by Iowa State University (ISU) Economist Dermot Hayes, NPPC says unrestricted access to the Chinese chilled and frozen market would reduce the overall trade deficit with China by nearly six percent and generate 184,000 new U.S. jobs in the next decade. NPPC today launched a digital campaign to spotlight the importance of opening the Chinese market to U.S. pork as trade negotiations continue.
“Were it not for China’s tariffs that are severely limiting access to American goods and other restrictions, including customs clearance delays, U.S. pork could be an economic powerhouse, creating thousands of new jobs, expanding sales and dramatically slashing our nation’s trade deficit. China’s actions would...
FSIS Releases List of 172 Poultry Plants Approved to Export to China
Since China has announced it will lift its ban on imports of all U.S. poultry products, 172 U.S. poultry processing plants have been approved to export to China. The list of processing plants has been published on the U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service portal. United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated that China is an important export market for America's poultry farmers, and estimates indicate that more than $1 billion worth of poultry and poultry products will be exported to China each year.
Find the complete list from the FSIS here...
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