NRF Economist Says Labor Market and Interest Rates Will Play Major Roles in 2024

After a better-than-expected performance in 2023, what happens with the economy in 2024 could depend largely on the labor market and what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“Federal Reserve officials have tough policy choices ahead as they decide on what to do and when,” Kleinhenz said. “There is still a risk that keeping rates too high could curb the economy’s momentum more than necessary. Yet if they lower rates too soon...

REPORTER: Restaurant Employment Makes Long Journey Back to Pre-COVID Levels

This article was originally featured in the WINTER 2024 Edition of Urner Barry’s Reporter magazine. 

Since the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the entire foodservice industry in 2020, the sector has been on a long road to recovery. Sales have improved gradually since 2021 and consumers are still opting to eat away from home despite sticky inflationary pressure.

Labor has been one of the biggest headwinds facing the industry. Food inflation is another topic but finding labor to feed a population with a big appetite to dine out...

US Q2 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.1%; Weekly Jobless Claims Edge Higher

The U.S. economy maintained a fairly strong pace of growth in the second quarter, the government confirmed on Thursday, and appears to have gathered momentum this quarter amid a resilient labor market.

Gross domestic product increased at an unrevised 2.1% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its third estimate of GDP for the April-June period on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP for the second quarter would be unrevised.

Growth for the first quarter was revised up to a 2.2% rate from...

Hormel Workers Reject Latest Offer, Contract Extension in Place Until October

Union workers at the Hormel Foods plant in Austin, Minnesota voted to reject a final offer from the company. Voting took place last week from September 13 and 14 at the plant and UFCW union hall in Austin. 

UFCW Local 663, which represents over 17,000 retail, meat packing and processing, food preparation and manufacturing, healthcare, and other workers in Minnesota, issued the following statement on Friday: 

"This week our coworkers voted overwhelmingly to reject Hormel's final offer to us. It's simply not good enough. We stand united, and...

Union Workers at Austin Hormel Plant Scheduled to Vote on Final Offer from Company 

Union workers at the Hormel plant in Austin, Minnesota are scheduled to vote on a final offer from the company tomorrow and Thursday. The current contract with the company expired on Sunday, September 10.

In a statement issued Sunday, the UFCW Local 663 bargaining committee unanimously recommended a "no" vote on the final offer by Hormel. The union said that the company refused to give workers appropriate wages and pensions despite record profits.

Last month, Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL), reported results for the third quarter...

3 Things To Know About The Raise the Wage Act of 2023

The Raise The Wage Act is back. And this time a handful of politicians are pushing to raise the federal minimum wage to $17.

The Raise the Wage Act has been around since 2017 when it was sponsored by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Bobby Scott. In 2017 it died in committee and then returned again in 2019 where it initially passed the house and then died in committee again. The Raise the Wage Act resurfaced yet again in 2021 with the proposal to eliminate the...

Restaurant Sales Hold Steady in June, Job Growth Slows

The National Restaurant Association reported sales at eating and drinking places reached $88.9 million on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, per preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This total is on par with the month prior.

The Association said the “plateauing” of restaurant sales mimicked the entire retail landscape as spending in non-restaurant retail sectors jumped by 0.2%. The Wall Street Journal noted that overall retail spending indicates that consumers are keeping up with inflation but have yet to outpace it...

Price Relief Coming at the Drive-Through

It takes a lot to get between Americans and fattening food, but everyone has their limits.

Quick serve has been the most successful restaurant category since the pandemic hit, initially because of its ability to provide socially distanced meals and then because of a lower price point as inflation squeezed household budgets. Some upper-middle-class diners have even defected from sit-down to fast-casual eateries like Chipotle or all the way to traditional fast food. But keeping profitability high has required a delicate dance of efficiency gains and...

New Bill Could Help Solve Restaurant Industry’s Labor Challenges Through Work Program

The National Restaurant Association highlighted the Essential Workers for Economic Advancement Act (HR 3734), a new bill that could help address workforce challenges that continue to hamper the restaurant industry.

EWEA was introduced by Reps. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA) and Henry Cuellar (D-TX). It includes a program that will allow workers to come to the U.S. on “market-driven, non-immigrant, three-year visas.”

The program is intended for small businesses in industries with comparatively low sales per employee. It would be available for non-agricultural jobs...

Pace of Foodservice Job Growth Slows, Industry Workforce Still Behind Pre-Pandemic Levels

Preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) April showed employment gains in foodservice and drinking places of 25,000, which carried gains seen across the leisure and hospitality sector. Through the first quarter of 2023, the sector has added almost 180,000 jobs.

However, the National Restaurant Association’s chief economist Bruce Grindy said those gains were at a slower pace compared to what has occurred in previous months.

April’s increase followed moderate gains in February (45,400) and March (28,200) – both of which were revised lower from their...