REPORTER: Two Years In: Russia-Ukraine War’s Impact on the Agricultural Marketplace 

This article was originally featured in the WINTER 2024 Edition of Urner Barry’s Reporter magazine. 

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, resulting in far-reaching ramifications to human life and for the global marketplace.

Both Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s most significant producers and exporters of agricultural goods. The two countries play a critical role in supplying the global market with critical commodities like fertilizer, grains, and oilseeds.

Prior to the invasion, global food...

Where Are Commodities Prices Headed?

Individuals investing in commodities haven't had a smooth ride over the past few years.

U.S. crude-oil futures briefly turned negative during the height of the pandemic in 2020 before rebounding to more than $82 a barrel recently. World food prices reached their highest level on record last year, in part as the Russia-Ukraine war spooked markets, but have fallen back more recently. And commodities from lumber to copper rode high and then fell, as global inflationary pressures and recession concerns drove trading.

So what happens next...

Russia and China Planning to Construct Bordering Grain Terminal 

Over the four-day Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok, Russia from September 10-13, Chinese and Russian officials signed multiple deals to enhance trade flows between the two countries. 

This includes the construction of a new grain terminal, called the Grain Terminal Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang, as reported by the South China Morning Post. The terminal will help export food produced in the Ural Mountains, Siberia, and Russia’s Far East to China. 

The new logistics hub will be located between Vladivostok, a major port city in Russia, and China’s northeastern province of...

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Wheat Futures Rise Following Alleged Drone Attack on Moscow

Wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange advanced by nearly 2% early Friday, boosted by mounting concerns over global supplies following an alleged drone attack on a building in central Moscow earlier in the day, according to media reports. 

December wheat reversed Thursday’s losses and narrowly surpassed $6.28 per bushel. This, however, was down sharply from its week-ago settlement price of $6.53 ¾ per bushel. Wheat prices have generally been on a steep downtrend since surging to $7.96 per bushel in late July, a five-month high... 

Ukraine's Navy Announces Temporary Corridors for Black Sea Vessels

Ukraine's Navy recently announced "temporary corridors" for merchant vessels destined for and departing from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.

“The specified routes will primarily be used for the possibility of leaving civilian ships that have been in the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia on February 24, 2022,” said Thursday's post.

The routes were previously proposed by Ukraine to the International Maritime Organization (IMO). 

Yesterday's announcement acknowledged military threats and mine danger from Russia along these routes. Moscow pulled out of the UN-backed...

Improved Rainfall Sends Soybean Futures to Multi-Week Lows

Widespread showers have largely benefitted corn and soybeans in the nation's key crop-producing regions, sending soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to multi-week lows on Monday.

November soybeans shed over 31 cents and fell to the lowest level since June 30, closing at $13.02 per bushel. 

In the latest USDA Crop Progress report, good to excellent ratings for soybeans were reported at 54%, up 2% from the week prior. Soybeans blooming moved up to 90%, above past progress benchmarks...

NATO to Increase Reconnaissance in Black Sea Following Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Grain Storage

During the second meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council on Wednesday, NATO and Ukraine condemned Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal last week, which raised fears of global food insecurity and higher food prices for countries that depend on Ukrainian exports.

Moscow is creating “deliberate attempts to stop Ukraine’s agricultural exports on which hundreds of millions of people worldwide depend,” read a statement issued by NATO yesterday. 

The U.N.-brokered grain deal, signed last summer, allowed the export of 32.9 metric tons of commodities...

Latest Treasury Sanctions Take Aim at Russia's Revenue Sources, Including Mining Sector

Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced further sanctions to inhibit Russia's supplies and revenue-generating sources that aid in its war efforts against Ukraine.

The designations made today by OFAC and the Department of State are part of the commitments that G7 Leaders made in February and May of this year.

The latest sanctions seek to restrict Russia’s access to products that support its military and war efforts, reduce Russia’s revenue from the metals and mining sector, undermine its future energy capabilities...

Russia's Warning to Black Sea Bound Vessels Ignites Rally in Wheat Futures

Wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange climbed to multi-week highs Wednesday after Russia's Defense Ministry announced that any vessel bound for Ukranine's Black Sea ports will be viewed as potential carriers of military cargo, starting tomorrow. 

"From 00:00 am Moscow time on 20 July 2023 (2100 GMT), all vessels on the Black Sea sailing to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo," according to a Telegram post released by the defense ministry. "The flag states of these vessels will...

EU Denounces Russia's Attacks on Odesa and Ukraine's Grain Storage

Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, denounced Russia's attacks on  Odesa, which have resulted in the large-scale destruction of Ukraine's grain storage. 

In press remarks made today, Borrell explained: "for the third night, Russia bombs and destroys all of the port infrastructure in Odesa [and other coastal cities] and the storages of grain – more than 60,000 tons of grain has been burned."

"So not only do they withdraw from the grain agreement, in order to [halt the] export the grain from...

Russian Attacks on Odesa Target Grain Deal, Says Zelenskyy

Following a second night of Russian attacks on Odesa, a city on the Black Sea in Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote that Moscow is deliberately taking aim at the Black Sea Grain Initiative after the deal's collapse on Monday.

“Russian terrorists absolutely deliberately targeted the infrastructure of the grain agreement, and every Russian missile is a blow not only to Ukraine, but also to everyone in the world who seeks a normal and safe life,” wrote Zelenskyy on Wednesday. 

“Deputy Prime Minister Kubrakov and Minister Klymenko informed about the consequences of the strikes. There were also reports by Chief of Staff Zaluzhnyi and Air Force Commander Oleschuk. He instructed Voyskov to strengthen the protection of people and port infrastructure... 

Crop Condition Ratings Increase; Futures Choppy Following Grain Deal Expiration 

In the latest Crop Progress report, the USDA shows corn conditions were modestly altered to reflect a combined 13% in poor to very poor condition, compared to 14% the previous week. 30% of corn is rated fair, while 57% ranges good to excellent, up 2 points from a week ago.

Corn in the silking stage was up to 47% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 43%.

This week's report also showed preliminary figures for corn dough—which is the stage of growth when about half the kernels are...

U.N. Secretary-General Addresses Black Sea Grain Deal Termination

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has addressed the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was terminated on Monday after Russia withdrew from the deal. 

Ships traveling in the northwestern part of the Black Sea are no longer guaranteed safety from Russian forces, raising concerns over the export capabilities of grain and other commodities from Ukraine’s three key ports. 

The grain deal, which was discontinued hours before its renewal deadline, has ensured the safe passage of over 32 million metric tons of food commodities from Ukrainian ports to countries at high...

U.N. Secretary-General Sends Letter to Russia Ahead of Grain Deal Expiration

Ahead of the Black Sea grain deal’s looming expiration date on July 17, the United Nations continues in its efforts to secure Russia's agreement. 

Earlier this week, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin detailing a proposal to revive the crucial grain deal, which was launched in Istanbul by the Russian Federation, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the United Nations last July. 

The deal is aimed at preventing global hunger and securing the safety of merchant ships that deliver grain and other...

UN Chief Urges Continuation of Grain Deal as New Harvest Begins

On Tuesday, United Nations (UN) chief António Guterres expressed disappointment by the slowed pace of inspections under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the UN-brokered deal which allows for the exports of crucial commodities including grain from Ukraine amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. 

The agreement, which is managed from Istanbul by a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC), is set to expire in mid-July unless all parties involved agree to a renewal. 

In a statement, Guterres said that food exports from the Black Sea have dropped off significantly from a peak of 4.2 million metric...

Black Sea Grain Deal Hangs in Balance Once More Ahead of Approaching Deadline

Moscow has once again signaled that it is unlikely to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is set to expire on July 18.

The Initiative was launched by Ukraine, Türkiye, Russian Federation, and the United Nations last summer to enable Ukrainian exports of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizer through three key Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea—Odesa, Chornomorsk, Yuzhny/Pivdennyi. 

Last month, all parties agreed to extend the U.N.-brokered deal for another 60 days with Russia demanding that logistical and financial obstacles to its own ...

Nearby Wheat Futures Hit Three-Week High After Destruction of Ukrainian Dam

Nearby wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gained over 3% following the destruction of the Russian-controlled Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine Tuesday morning. 

July wheat was trading 20 cents higher at $6.43 ¾ a bushel as of this writing, the highest level since May 16. The latest attack raised additional concerns over global supplies and export capabilities from key grain producers Ukraine and Russia. 

The Nova Kakhovka dam spanned the Dnipro River and supplied water to the Crimean Peninsula along...

Broad Losses at Midweek Sent Lean Hog Futures and Grain Complex Tumbling 

Lean hog futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) tumbled at midweek, sending some months to new contract lows. Yesterday’s sell-off followed a recent firming trend in hog futures after the Supreme Court’s backing of Proposition 12 last week. 

The June lean hog futures contract formed an outside bearish reversal Wednesday and closed $2.325 lower at $84.875 per cwt. The August contract slipped to a fresh contract low and settled $3.025 lower at $84.85 per cwt.

The cash hog market and wholesale pork...

Black Sea Grain Inspections Resume Following Recent Standstill

In a press briefing Tuesday, the United Nations announced that the “JCC has confirmed that inspections have resumed today on outbound vessels.”

The Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) conducted no inspections on Sunday or Monday. Since May 1, the JCC inspection rate dropped to 2.9 inspections daily, according to Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesman for the Secretary-General.

"There are currently 26 vessels in Turkish waters loaded with 1,157,974 metric tons of grain and foodstuffs. According to information shared by the Ukrainian delegation with the parties at the JCC, there are 62 vessels waiting...

White House Aims New Sanctions at Russia and Iran

President Joe Biden recently announced new sanctions on groups in Russia and Iran in response to the wrongful detainment of Americans around the world. 

In a press release issued by the White House Thursday, Biden stated “the Department of State and the Department of the Treasury have announced the U.S. Government’s first-ever sanctions against actors for engaging in the wrongful detention of Americans.”

“These sanctions against four individuals and two security services in Russia and Iran mean that all of the designees’ property and...

G7 Discusses Expanding Ban on Russia Exports as Part of Strengthening Sanctions

The Group of Seven (G7) countries are considering a possible ban on nearly all exports to Russia, according to Japan's Kyodo News agency. The discussion is part of strengthening sanctions against Moscow in response to its ongoing war on Ukraine, which eclipsed its year-long mark two months ago.

The G7 summit will be held in Hiroshima on May 19 through 21. During the gathering, participants will discuss various topics including expanding support for Ukraine and intensifying sanctions against Russia.

The G7 members are Japan, Italy, Canada, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union (EU)...