HPAI H5N1 Virus in Dairy Cattle – What We Know

In March 2024, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1), commonly referred to as bird flu, was confirmed in domestic U.S. livestock for the first time in a dairy operation in Texas. Since then, the virus has spread to 1,021 dairy operations across 17 states, raising widespread uncertainty throughout the dairy and livestock markets. Industry participants have raised concerns about the outbreak's potential impact on consumer perception and demand for dairy and meat products, though government agencies reiterate that the national food supply remains safe. Expana is closely monitoring the situation...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Vie with Foodservice During Peak Travel Season

Summer is usually the peak demand period for foodservice, as warmer weather encourages vacation plans and out-and-about activities. As more consumers embark on trips, spending is typically increased at restaurants and bars.

Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that restaurant business rose 0.3 percent last month, likely supported by the summer travel season. Overall retail sales in June remained unchanged from May, outpacing expectations for a decline. Stock futures climbed following the stronger-than-expected data, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to... 

ANALYSIS: 1H 2024 in Review, Australia’s Beef Industry Navigates Surge in US Exports 

For a relatively small, cattle producing country, Australian beef is heavily traded. In fact, it's on the podium for one of the world's most traded this year. Australia's beef industry in the first half of 2024 has navigated a dynamic landscape reshaped by global market shifts and regional challenges. This period has been marked by significant export expansions to the world’s largest beef market, the US. Despite facing challenges in Asian markets due to evolving consumer demand dynamics, Australia continued to position...

ANALYSIS: Peeled Knuckles Defy Seasonal Trends Fueled by Lean Beef Demand

Back in April, we highlighted how record-high prices of 90% boneless beef had a massive impact on several items within the boxed beef complex, most notably, peeled knuckles. That trend has moved on through the summer as prices for peeled knuckles have reached their highest point in history, aside from 2020, when the COVID pandemic was in full swing.

At present, Choice peeled knuckles sit at $4.00/lb., this is roughly 21.8% higher than at this time last year...

The Retail Rundown: Dog Days Dull Buying Occasions

Holiday retail meat clearance last week was reported as mostly positive albeit a bit scattered due to varying weather conditions across the country. This week, extreme heat and record temperatures are expected to persist in the Western and Eastern U.S.

The sweltering conditions that typically accompany the dog days of summer make it challenging for retail to capture regular meat purchases. The egg case also typically sees fewer purchases around this time of year as consumers opt for cold breakfasts like cereal and fruit...

ANALYSIS: Checking In On Chicken Headcount

Ending off the month of June, cumulative chicken headcount is down by approximately 2.18% with about 94.3 thousand fewer birds produced when compared to a similar period in 2023. Although total headcount continues to retreat on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, a glance at the individual size categories reveals a shift in overall weight distribution.

The number of small (4.25 lbs/down) and jumbo (7.76 lbs/ up) broilers crossing the line has risen by 1.56% and 2.08%, respectively, while birds within the medium (4.26-6.25 lb) range have retreated 6.37%...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Market, A Seasonal Quandary

The turkey market has been particularly challenging for players to successfully navigate over the past several years and, so far, 2024 has been no exception. This scenario is particularly true when speaking about the whole-body bird and raw material sectors where seasonally subdued demand persists here at the mid-year point. Given the fact that wholesale and consumer-facing demand patterns are notoriously challenging to predict on a "normal" year, turkey markets are falling back on traditional supply-side metrics to help illuminate the road ahead...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand’s Beef Sector Intensifies US Market Push, May 2024’s Exports Surge 26.0% M-O-M

The New Zealand beef industry is increasingly targeting the lucrative US market to capitalize on the high demand resulting from supply shortages. New Zealand’s exports in May 2024 were recorded at 57,202 mt, the highest in-month level since the 2015 drought year of 57,538 mt, data from Stats NZ indicated.

On a monthly basis, exports jumped 26.0% or by 11,796 mt. Year-on-year, the country’s beef exports grew 4.9% or 2,659 mt...

The Retail Rundown: Retail Segment and Temperatures Heat Up Ahead of Holiday

The retail segment is heating up for the July 4^th holiday, as are the temperatures across the country.

Scorching heat along with the holiday falling on a Thursday could dampen this year’s cookouts. Residents in the south-central and West Coast are in the midst of a dangerous and record-breaking heat wave, with blistering temperatures forecast to extend into next week.

Meanwhile, severe weather including flash flooding and strong wind gusts is possible over the next few days across the Plains and Midwest, according to the National...

Cargill Indefinitely Shutters Production at Dodge City Plant; Shifts Cattle to Other Facilities 

Cargill has indefinitely shuttered operations at its beef processing facility in Dodge City, Kansas after suffering a partial roof collapse caused by heavy rains.

That facility, which can process roughly 5,000 to 6,000 head per day, was down on Monday, July 1st, and will likely be down tomorrow and possibly Wednesday, according to industry sources. Other market sources suspect that the plant might be down for the entirety of this week, depending in part on how quickly repairs can get underway. 

USDA estimated today's cattle slaughter at 115,000 head, on par with a week ago...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: Up, Down, Sideways

While spot trade activity within the turkey market remains seasonally subdued here at the tail end of June, there is no shortage of influential variables that are weighing heavily on the minds of participants. One report which has raised a couple of eyebrows is the latest Cold Storage assessment. As illustrated by this week’s chart, both yearly and monthly inventory comparisons were far from unified through the end of May. Total holdings closed the month at 422.9 million pounds. This represents a 5.2% year-over-year (YoY) advance, while also positioning... 

ANALYSIS: Lower Tenderloin Prices Weigh Down Loin Primal Value Amid Grilling Season

Loins typically garner the bulk of attention at this point on the calendar within the boxed beef market. Grilling season is in full swing and the 4th of July holiday is on the horizon. In 2024, we have seen the loin operate in quite a different fashion when compared to last year. As of June 24, Urner Barry’s Choice loin beef cutout value sits at $4.25/lb., roughly 10% below the same time last year. While a few items are lagging behind last year’s levels...

The Retail Rundown: Fired Up for the Fourth

A recap of protein sales over the Father's Day weekend showed beef in the lead with nearly $208.7 million in total sales, up from $181.8 million the week prior. The steak complex averaged $13.93 discounted, 10.5% higher year-over-year (YOY). Prices on T-bone ranged from $7.93 to $15.08 discounted while top loin averaged $12.04 discounted, down 57 cents from a year ago.

Holiday features at the seafood counter included fresh shrimp at $7.82 discounted, down 70 cents from last year. Tilapia ran at $6.47 discounted, up 2.1% YOY. Cod fillets were featured...

ANALYSIS: April's Record U.S. Pork Export Volume, Central America Exceeds China

The discussion in the U.S. pork market has been largely focused on improved export interest compared to 2023 levels. Analyzing the USDA's total U.S. pork exports for April reveals the highest volume ever recorded for that month since data collection began in 1970, slightly surpassing the volumes of 2020 and 2021. This increase is notable as U.S. pork has become more price-competitive in international markets due to a drop in European pork production, making E.U. pork supplies less abundant than in past years...

ANALYSIS: China’s May 2024 Beef Imports Soar 30% YoY; Consumer Shifts from Pork

China’s May 2024 beef imports rebounded from last month, rising 4.5% m-o-m or 10,048 mt to 234,449 mt, the latest General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China data indicated.

On a yearly basis, volumes soared 30.7% (55,053 mt), primarily driven by a hike in Brazilian imports. Exports to China was previously suspended in 2023 over Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) issues.

Year-to-date (YTD) figures stood at 1.23 million mt, a decline of 23.6% or 234,589 mt compared to the same period last year...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Wings Bucking Historical Trends

Anyone dealing in the wholesale chicken wing market is acutely aware of the rarefied air the industry is breathing these days. Not since the dizzying heights of 2021 have wholesale values soared as they do now, defying historical trends and seasonal expectations. Recent market feedback continues to paint a surprisingly robust picture, which suggests the current undertone may not be shifting just yet.

The shadow of 2021 looms large, a year marked by such astronomical prices that drove buyers away, taking nearly two years for demand to recover...

ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Market Stabilizes Following Four-Week Rally to Mid-June Record Highs

Thursday marked the conclusion of a four-week rally in the US shell-egg market, during which Urner Barry’s benchmark Midwest large quotation surged by 63.4%, reaching $2.68 per dozen, an unprecedented high for mid-June. This surge reflects robust retail demand outstripping constrained supply in an unseasonably strong market.

Traditionally, summer sees a dip in egg demand as seasonal preferences shift, but competitive everyday prices have been a strong lure for consumers grappling with inflation and tight budgets...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Export Volume Slips to 6-Year Seasonal Low

For those who have been following the broiler export data throughout the year, the latest figures are slow to challenge the status quo. However, April's reading did present some interesting developments worth noting. Total outward tonnage through month’s end floundered at about 530 thousand pounds. This represents the second-lowest seasonal level observed over the past decade. When compared with March, cumulative figures retreated by 5.1%, or 28.8 million pounds. This downturn keeps in line with an anticipated reduction in monthly movement of 9.4% on average over the past five...

ANALYSIS: Divergent Pricing Strategies for Mexican Export Short Loins

The Mexican export market has shown contrasting positions regarding the negotiation of short loin prices with the U.S. market. On one hand, some sellers have chosen to negotiate material at lower prices, responding to the historically seasonal decline in short loin prices starting in June and avoiding the risk of holding material that could depreciate even more in the future. On the other hand, there is an opposing stance that directly responds to current market trends. Observing the U.S. boxed beef market, short loin prices have shown a...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Export Volume Expands MoM Stride

By most accounts, April marked the continuation of a general improvement in year-over-year (YoY) turkey export throughput which has been playing out since June of 2023. Total holdings through month’s end touched on about 40.9 million pounds which marks an 18.5% YoY advance. Despite this significant leap, April’s ending tally is still positioned 2.3 million pounds shy of the seasonal 5-year average. As for the comparative monthly data, total outward volume during the month rose by 11.3%. This uptick is a stark contrast to the average 4.9% reduction observed...

The Retail Rundown: Raising the 'Steaks' for Father’s Day

The Memorial Day and July 4^th holidays are popular burger occasions, whereas Father’s Day is typically geared toward steak consumption. Fittingly, grocers have upped the feature volume for steaks ahead of the upcoming holiday weekend.

Steaks currently make up 43.3% of total retail buying opportunities within the beef complex, up from 37.7% the week prior. Ground beef ads also saw a week-over-week advance, now holding 35.3% of beef’s total retail activity. Feature activity for roasts has eased as fewer households utilize their ovens during the hotter weather.

ANALYSIS: Grilling Season Heats Up as CAB Bone-In Strip Prices Reach Year-High

As we head towards Father’s Day weekend, the Certified Angus Beef® market has witnessed some uplift around many of the cuts that are favorites during grilling season. The bone-in 1x1 shells are no exception. Since about mid-April, bone-in strips have witnessed a steady climb and have even surpassed levels seen this time of year. From April 22, prices have jumped by 17% in what has developed into a more traditional spring run-up...

ANALYSIS: The Domino Effect, Herd Reduction Impacts Beef Markets

As we begin to work through the back half of the year, there have been quite a few interesting trends to unfold through the first 6 months within the boxed beef markets. It is no secret that the U.S. beef herd has been in a contraction phase for some time within both the fed and non-fed sectors of the beef market. This has become most evident when you look at cow & bull slaughter figures year-to-date, which are down nearly 10% already...

ANALYSIS: Strong Market for Yolk Leads to Over-Production of Whites in the EU

Historically, in the EU, egg white and yolk prices have behaved rather independently. However, since September 2023, brisk demand for yolk has yielded more whites than producers can find an outlet for, which slightly impacted both market prices.

In the last three years, the price of liquid egg white has been following the same trend as egg white powder. Due to post-COVID inflation, severe HPAI outbreaks, and the invasion of Ukraine, the costs of feed, shell eggs, and energy in the EU surged...

ANALYSIS: China’s May 2024 Meat Imports Slip 3.35% Y-O-Y Over Weak Consumption

Preliminary custom statistics showed that China’s May 2024 meat imports (including entrails) were recorded at 557,000 mt, the latest General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China data indicated. 

Imports rose 2.39% m-o-m from April 2024’s 544,000 mt. Market players believed this increase was largely driven by the influx of Brazilian material. On 12th March 2024, China approved the addition of 38 new production plants to receive imported meat from Brazil, leading to an increase...

ANALYSIS: Brazil's Beef Exports Reach Record Highs in May, China's Shares Decline

Brazil has achieved a historical record in beef exports as of May 2024, exporting an unprecedented 211,976 MT of beef. This represents an increase of 1.9% from the previous month and a surged 25.9% when compared to the same period last year. On a YTD basis, the total volume is up by 16.7%.

China remains the leading importer, purchasing 97,876 MT of Brazilian beef in May. However, this figure is slightly lower than April's 101,023 MT ,a 3.1% decrease,  and corresponds to an 11.8% decline compared...

ANALYSIS: Australia's May 2024 Meat Exports Soar to Record Highs

Australia’s May 2024 total meat exports hit a record high, reaching a total of 200,188 mt of meat, including beef/veal, mutton, lamb, and pork, data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (D.A.F.F) indicated. Volumes surpassed record highs last seen in October 2019 at 189,895 mt.

Volumes on a year-on-year basis jumped 22.0% or 36,122 mt. Exports grew 9.6% or 17,441 mt after a 4-month consecutive rise.

The country’s beef/veal exports for May 2024 jumped 24.5%...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Hatchery Highlights: Q2 Trends and Considerations

With June underway and given the relatively volatile state of the chicken market, players are looking to the stats as they attempt to refine their expectations for the end of Q2 and beyond. While lines such as wings continue to buck historical expectations by hitting new yearly price highs, other items such as boneless breasts have begun to correct lower in value in response to a retreat in buying outreach and mounting supply levels. Although forward-facing demand patterns are anything but a sure bet, one variable which the collective industry...

Smithfield Foods Enters Agreement to Buy Nashville Sausage Facility from Cargill 

On Thursday, Smithfield Foods announced it entered into a definitive agreement to buy a dry sausage facility from Cargill in Nashville, Tennessee. 

The latest acquisition will expand Smithfield’s growing footprint in the value-added packaged meats segment. The transaction is expected to close by the end of next month. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed. 

“This transaction is a testament to our continued focus on growing our packaged meats business by staying ahead of and delivering on our customers’ preferences. Dry sausage is one of our fastest-growing...

ANALYSIS: A Deep Dive into Turkey Cold Storage

As touched on in last week’s analysis, there is no shortage of supply-facing variables which are playing an influential role in the turkey market. Despite a year-over-year (YoY) retreat in hatchery and harvest figures, frozen inventory levels are continuing to make headway above 2023 levels. With this in mind, we thought we’d elaborate on the most recent cold storage data and provide some historical perspective on the current inventory environment.

As illustrated by our chart, total cold storage stocks through the end of April notched above last year by...

The Retail Rundown: Focus Shifts to Next Big Cookout Event

Shoppers welcomed the unofficial start of summer over the Memorial Day weekend with grilling go-tos including hamburgers, ribs, and chicken parts. Circana data indicates ground beef sales totaled nearly $82.9 million last week, up from $68.4 million the week prior and outpacing $77.1 million during the same week in 2023. Beef ribeye also saw increased sales week-over-week, earning $32.3 million with distribution (the number of UPCs selling within the given aggregate) totaling 90,781—up from 87,175 the week prior...

Analysis: April Boost in Pork Cold Storage Can't Offset Annual Shortfall 

The recent USDA Cold Storage Report revealed a notable 38-million-pound increase in April, marking an 8.25% month-over-month rise. However, cold storage levels remain 66 million pounds below this same time last year, reflecting an 11.6% decline.

Several items showed month-over-month increases, including bellies (3%), butts (8.3%), bone-in hams (49.5%), boneless hams (28.5%), boneless loins (3.3%), bone-in picnics (17.6%), ribs (3.7%), and total pork (8.25%). In contrast, bone-in loins (-3.2%) and trimmings (-0.2%) experienced decreases due to improved interest...

ANALYSIS: US Egg Prices Soar as Production Hits Eight-Year Low Due to HPAI Outbreaks

Over the past two weeks, U.S. shell egg prices have soared by 45%, largely due to the ongoing spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The bird flu has been spreading across the US since February 2022—though not consistently. The first outbreak of last year didn’t occur until the last day of October, ending a ten-month stretch with no new cases. Since then, 28.7 commercial layer and pullet operations have been affected...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage Contracts in April

The most recent Cold Storage Report shines light on the near-universal year-over-year (YoY) retreat of frozen inventory levels across much of the chicken complex. Although monthly comparisons also trekked lower in  April, several items bucked the established 5-year trend.

Total public warehouse stocks through the end of the month touched on 743.8 million pounds. This represents a 10.3% reduction from a similar period back in 2023, while also marking the third-lowest seasonal reading in a decade. This downturn closely aligns with April's relatively...

ANALYSIS: Inside Skirts Cool Off After Hot Spring

Back in March, we highlighted the Certified Angus Beef® inside skirts and the contra seasonal moves witnessed leading into the spring. It appeared that buyers did their work earlier in 2024 amid reduced slaughter levels seen at that point. As we check back in on that item, it does confirm that buyers were in fact early to the draw this year, and prices have come down to just about the levels seen at this point last year. The item has lost roughly 9.85% of its value...

ANALYSIS: A Turkey Supply Conundrum

Given the relatively stagnant, if not seasonally, subdued state of the turkey market lately, buyers and sellers are searching high and low for direction. While supply-side indications certainly tell an interesting story, they seem to bring more questions than they do answers. As has been the case for the past seventeen months, total cold storage holdings have trekked higher on a year-over-year (YoY) basis.

The latest reading through the end of April was no exception; notching higher by 6.15%. Coming in at 390.6 million pounds, total warehouse... 

ANALYSIS: Boneless Chicken Breast Values Experience Seasonal Shudder

For those on the chicken side of the business, all eyes are on the breast meat complex given the recent, and somewhat abrupt, shift in marketing dynamics. For perspective, between the year’s outset and May 20^th, jumbo boneless breast quotations have advanced 66%. This has positioned values at the fourth-highest seasonal level realized in the past decade. At $1.95/lb. delivered, this year’s seasonal peak currently stands about $0.19/lb above the 10-year average for the period.

Players attribute 2024’s admirable breast meat performance to active...

ANALYSIS: Australian Beef Imports Maintain the Top Spot

The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service's weekly report on Imported Meat Passed for Entry in the U.S. by Country sheds light on the ongoing dynamics in the beef import market. With domestic 90% Fresh Chemical Lean prices remaining historically high (Chart 1), it is no surprise that the volume of fresh beef boneless trimmings imported to the U.S. has reached levels unseen since 2015. Year-to-date (YTD) import shipments are pegged at 253,464 metric tons (MT), 31% above the 10-year average...

ANALYSIS: Tapering Turkey Hatch Sets Production Tone

With trade activity continuing to fall to the sluggish end of the seasonal continuum, and given the ongoing uncertainty related to variables such as disease, turkey market participants are facing more questions than answers when it comes to the future potential of the complex. While the road ahead remains anything but a clear read, there are some forward-facing indications on the production front which might hint at the road which lies ahead. Despite the relatively average costs associated with corn and soybean values, lackluster demand patterns and the aforementioned threat...

ANALYSIS: Coarse Grinds Heat Up as Warmer Weather Ignites Grilling Season

As the Memorial Day holiday has come into view, coarse grinds have begun to showcase some seasonality which have been largely absent previously. Data shows 81% of coarse grinds increased nearly 27% year-to-date, 7% below the 5-year average. This is partially skewed due to the years of COVID-19 in the mix, particularly in 2020.

As weather has improved across the United States, grinds have slowly reappeared in the spotlight, encouraging buyers with incentives to return to the market as grilling season is set to begin...

ANALYSIS: Global Price Overview - 90% Trimmings

Urner Barry offers comprehensive beef price coverage across the world’s largest markets. This analysis evaluates 90% trimmings, a major ingredient for manufacturing beef products widely traded in different global regions.

To access the full range of Urner Barry's market insights, refer to our prices and market commentary. This includes coverage for U.S. Choice, Select, and Ungraded Boxed Beef, as well as U.S. Boneless Beef markets. We also provide coverage for U.S. imported beef sourced from Australia, New Zealand, Central America, Uruguay, Argentina, and Brazil, all the above are updated twice daily...

ANALYSIS: China’s Beef Imports Hit Lowest in April Since Start of 2024 Amid Sluggish Demand

China’s April 2024 beef imports plummeted to its lowest point since the start of the year, shedding 7.7% month over month or 18,718 mt to 224,402 mt, the latest General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China data indicated.

By virtue of its population, China is the world's second largest beef market after the US, with most of the growth led by affluent urbanites. In recent years, the beef market has been further boosted by the rapid growth of the 'quick commerce' sector, which 

The Retail Rundown: Ads Centered on Get Grillin’ Themes

This week's retail ads are centered on get grillin' themes as consumers stock up on burgers, hot dogs, and other barbeque staples for the upcoming Memorial Day holiday. 

For the holiday weekend, seafood features take the cake with 28.8% of total protein ad volume. Pork climbed to second with 23.7%, followed by chicken with 20%. Beef features eased to 19.3% of the mix, down about three points from the week prior.

Looking at seafood, fresh/frozen filets make up 31% of retail buying...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Hatch Figures “Crack On”

From a historical perspective, May typically marks a pivotal time for those in the chicken industry. With chicken-centric holidays such as Superbowl, March Madness, and Mother’s Day now in the rearview mirror, market participants are keeping a watchful eye on prevailing demand patterns as consumers begin to transition into “grilling season”.

While it remains to be seen how demand will ultimately play out moving forward and whether or not chicken will remain competitive in the retail and food service spaces, market participants are opting to focus their attention on the...

ANALYSIS: Checking-In on Turkey Market Supply Factors

Although mid-May trade conditions have been slow to shift the undertone surrounding whole-body turkeys and raw materials, there is no shortage of variables which are weighing heavily on the minds of market participants as they refine their expectations for the road ahead. Central to many turkey-related conversations remains disease.

As illustrated by this week’s chart, year-to-date (YTD) commercial HPAI outbreaks have risen about 84%, or 229.6 thousand head, when compared to a similar period one year prior...

The Retail Rundown: Memorial Day Promotions; Latest CPI Data

Spring is in the air… and the first inklings of summer are making a reappearance too. Memorial Day is less than two weeks out and grocers are enthusiastically preparing for the official start of the grilling season.

Cookout staples like charcoal, outdoor serving ware, grilling cuts, and all things barbeque are migrating toward the front page of circulars, bringing increased visibility to the meat case, deli counter, and prepared foods sections of the store. 

In the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend last year, 78-84% lean ground beef was...

ANALYSIS: Brazilian Beef Export Volumes Show a Robust 25% Monthly Growth in April

Despite the general sentiment of a softened market from key export destinations for the Brazilian beef, exports in April demonstrated a significant upturn, with total fresh beef exports reaching 208,053 MT, a 25.1% increase from previous month’s 166,303 MT. The significant rebound in export figures from March have surprised some stakeholders given the persistent talk about a subdued demand and pressured prices. Particularly from the Chinese market, a major trading partner of Brazil.

April’s overall market undertone diverged by some means from the increased export figures...

ANALYSIS: Factors Influencing Mexican Ribeye Export Levels

The Mexican market has recorded its lowest export levels to the US in the last five years during 2024, primarily due to the strength of the peso in the exchange rate and increased demand in the Mexican domestic market. Despite this, the limited availability of materials in the USA has sustained interest in Mexican ribeyes.

Throughout the year, export price trends have mirrored those in the US market, particularly with select-type materials. Notably, this cut has shown remarkable price stability, maintaining consistent demand and demonstrating robust performance in the first quarter of...

ANALYSIS: Impacts of Prop 12 Shape Memorial Day Outlook for Pork Ribs, Bacon and Butts

Memorial Day is traditionally celebrated as one of the major pork holidays each year. Ribs, bacon, and butts are all beloved staples of this popular weekend that marks the official start of summer. However, this year presents a unique situation due to rebounding cold storage levels post prop 12 proclamation, sow liquidations, and economic uncertainty, unlike the past few years.

The current values for bone-in butts show an increase of 3.9% compared to this time last year, and they are also 10.4% above the...

ANALYSIS: Global Price Overview– Beef Knuckles

Urner Barry offers comprehensive beef price coverage across the world's largest markets. This analysis examines a popular cut, the knuckle, which is traded in different global regions. The report explores market conditions and price trends for knuckles, a round cut utilized in various applications such as processed steak items, ground beef production and for slicing and dicing.

To access the full range of Urner Barry's market insights, refer to our prices and market commentary. This includes coverage for U.S. Choice, Select, and Ungraded Boxed Beef, as well as U.S. Boneless Beef markets...

Analysis: Rising Demand for U.S. Boneless Pork Butt in South Korea

Upon analyzing the USDA's year-to-date export data, there is a noteworthy increase of 70.6% in total weekly U.S. pork export volumes to South Korea compared to this same period last year. These exports have primarily consisted of pork butt items.

Conversely, year-to-date total beef exports to South Korea have decreased by 5.4% from the previous year. Elevated U.S. beef prices have led to a reduction in weekly export volumes to South Korea.

With dwindling pork supplies in the European market and high U.S. beef prices...

ANALYSIS: March's Turbulent Tradewinds in Chicken Exports

The latest chicken export data through the end of March leaves some room for interpretation depending on one’s vantage point. Closing Q1 at 558.5 thousand pounds, total export tonnage rebounded 2.1% from February. This loosely coincides with the seasonally-anticipated average uptick of 7% realized over the past five years. Nonetheless, March’s closing tally was slow to make year-over-year (YoY) headway; standing just shy of 11% below ’23 levels.

In terms of value, March’s reading retreated by about 10% when compared to this time last year. Market participants are...

ANALYSIS: Insights into Non-Fed Slaughter

The quotation for 90% Fresh Chemical Lean Beef Trimmings exceeding $3.00 per pound has historically been a rare occurrence, happening only four times prior to this year: in September 2014, January 2015, late Spring 2020, and early Fall 2023. However, since the start of February, prices have remained above this mark for 14 consecutive weeks as seen in Chart 1 below.

Chart 1. UB Beef Trim 90%

One significant factor driving these historically high prices is the slowing rate of cow and bull slaughter in the U.S. According to the...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Export Volume Closes Q1 on a Relatively Positive Note

The latest turkey export data marks a continuation of the year-over-year (YoY) advances in outward tonnage which have been evident over the past nine months. Coming in at 37.7 million pounds, March’s closing tally stood 15%, or 3.5 million pounds, above this time in 2023. Given the ongoing complications with HPAI-related production and export constraints, it bears noting that total export figures still remain situated at the third-lowest seasonal level realized in two decades. Export value during this timeframe notched lower by 0.5%; positioning...

ANALYSIS: Tenderloin Prices Defy Springtime Expectations

Tenderloins have witnessed contra seasonal price movement ahead of, and throughout the traditional spring buying period. Urner Barry’s Choice Tenderloin quote entered 2024 at very similar levels seen at the onset of 2023, roughly $15.85/lb. Fast forward to the present and the item sits at $12.63/lb., a 20% drop in value through the first five months. At this point last year, tenderloins sat at $16.23/lb., about 22% above the current range and above the February trough. The item presently is also just shy of sitting 4% below the...

The Retail Rundown: Showdown for Consumer Dollars this Mother's Day

Grocers and foodservice are preparing for a showdown with Mother's Day just a few days away. 

The upcoming holiday typically favors foodservice sales over retail as consumers celebrate their loved ones by visiting a dining establishment. According to the National Restaurant Association, 34% of consumers will dine out this Sunday, particularly during lunch and dinner. An additional 12% will order takeout or delivery.

However, retailers have a few tricks up their sleeves to get shoppers through the door by promoting deals on flowers, cards, gifts, and more. Grocers...

ANALYSIS: Australia's April Beef/Veal Exports Surge, Narrow Miss from 2015’s Record Highs

Australia’s beef/veal exports for April rose a whopping 46.2% year-on-year to 105,367 mt (33,304 mt increase), narrowly missing record highs last seen in 2015, data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (D.A.F.F) indicated.  

Industry players initially anticipated that Australia would break its April export beef/veal record this year. However, the latest Monthly Australian Meat Export figures fell short by 7,916 mt to surpass the previous record set at 113,283 metric tons, primarily due to lower volumes to key customer China...

ANALYSIS: Weighing In on YTD Chicken Headcount

Given the wide array of production challenges related to disease and low hatchability, chicken market participants are keeping their eyes glued to the slaughter data as they attempt to hone their expectations for the road ahead. When it comes to 2024’s cumulative production, total headcount continues to retreat by about 2.7% year-over-year (YoY). This amounts to a 70 million head reduction from a similar period in ’23. Still, at about 2.6 billion birds, year-to-date (YTD) headcount continues to reside at the fifth-highest level in at least two...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Headcount Slips to Record Low

Although transactional activity within the turkey complex remains seasonally thin here in mid-Q2, there is no shortage of variables which are catching the attention of market participants.

The latest Monthly Slaughter Report is perhaps top of mind for many players on the turkey side of the business, and with good reason. Total headcount retreated by 5% from February, and by a notable 18% when compared with this time last year. Coming in at 15.5 million head, March’s data also represents the lowest reading observed in over two decades...

The Retail Rundown: Maximizing May’s Buying Occasions

The grocery sector is maximizing several buying occasions this month as the change in weather and outdoor grilling season breathes new life into the meat case.

May brings about a seasonal shift as daily life bustles with spring activities like sports and outings—boosting the supermarket's convenience and snack food sections. Busy families will also frequent the deli counter more often and turn to quick dinners and frozen options for weekday meals.

Retailers are currently highlighting holiday items for Cinco de Mayo this Sunday. The upcoming holiday, which commemorates the anniversary of Mexico’s...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage, Cracking Open the Freezer Doors

The latest Cold Storage Report generally aligns with the monthly movement observed over the past five years, while also shining light on the notable reduction in year-over-year (YoY) inventory holdings. Total public warehouse stocks through the end of March hit 763.7 million pounds, which represents a 10.5% retreat from a similar period back in ’23. This coincides with the relatively well-accounted-for supply state on the street, along with the negative impact that disease and low hatchability continue to have on the production front...

ANALYSIS: Boneless Ribeye Prices Reflecting a Cautious Approach

Ribs have been tough items to get a pulse on this year as spending, production, and sentiment have all seen notable shifts in the past year. Uncertainty surrounding available cattle supplies and consumer willingness to spend on beef has prompted the market to take a much more cautious approach to the market and even more so around ribs. Urner Barry’s Choice Boneless Ribeye quote currently sits at $9.15/lb. compared to $10.23/lb. last year, which is about 10% lower...

USDA Issues FAQ on Federal Order Requiring Bird Flu Testing in Dairy Cattle

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a Federal Order requiring mandatory testing of lactating dairy cattle for bird flu before interstate movement. Effective Monday, April 29, 2024, the order also mandates reporting positive influenza A test results in livestock to USDA’s Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). 

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) causes less severe illness in cattle than in poultry, in which the virus is typically fatal, but remains a concern for livestock and humans who come into contact with infected animals...

ANALYSIS: Tightening Turkey Production Trends

Given the relatively serene state of the turkey market here in early Q2, market participants are keeping their eyes trained on the stats as they refine their expectations for the road ahead. When it comes to supply-facing variables, disease remains a top consideration, and with good reason. In just the first four months of the year, about 346 thousand commercial turkeys have been impacted by HPAI. Although this figure represents only a small fraction of the industry’s annual production potential, it is one part of a more complex scenario currently unfolding on the supply...

ANALYSIS: Export Volume Challenges for Mexican Beef End Cuts

Throughout 2024, beef export levels from Mexico to the United States have been relatively low compared to previous years. This trend is largely attributed to the exchange rate, as the strength of the Mexican peso against the dollar has led to higher prices of Mexican items. Consequently, even though there is sustained demand for Mexican beef in the US, Mexican producers have been constrained in their ability to allocate beef for export, since sales in the Mexican domestic market are more profitable. This situation is particularly evident with end cuts...

The Retail Rundown: Abundance of Springtime Eating Occasions

There is an abundance of springtime eating occasions and grocers are gearing up for a triathlon of sorts with Cinco De Mayo, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day fast approaching.

The produce section and the meat case are expected to benefit from Cinco de Mayo as those celebrating load up on beef, pork, and chicken for a variety of dishes like tacos, fajitas, burritos, and carnitas. These dishes are often accompanied by fixings like guacamole and salsa, boosting sales of avocadoes, mangoes, and more...

Analysis: Dollar to Peso Currency Conversion Impact on the U.S. Pork Bone-In Ham Market

Following the Easter holiday and into early April, the US 23/27 bone-in ham market displayed a fully steady to firm tone, with the majority of buying interest coming from the Mexican market. The Urner Barry weekly average price for bone-in hams for the week of April 8^th, 2024 was the second highest on record for the month of April, dating back to 1981. This price was only exceeded during the 2014 Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv) outbreak, reflecting the tight supply...

Cow-to-Cow Transmission Confirmed as a Factor in Spread of H5N1

In an update provided by the USDA, the agency confirmed that cow-to-cow transmission is a factor in the spread of H5N1 bird flu in dairy herds.

However, it remains unclear exactly how the virus is being moved around. “We know that the virus is shed in milk at high concentrations; therefore, anything that comes in contact with unpasteurized milk, spilled milk, etc. may spread the virus,” explained the USDA.

The government stressed the importance of biosecurity, including the movement of people, animals, vehicles, and...