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Upcoming Webinar (Asia Edition): Forecasting the Future of Commodity Prices, Q4 2025 and Beyond
Expana invites you to a free, live webinar featuring our experts Tom Bundgaard, Vice President of Price Forecasting, and Craig Erlam, Forecast Analyst.
Join us on September 18 at 11 AM Singapore time for a comprehensive macroeconomic briefing focused on the latest Q4 2025 commodity price forecasts and what lies ahead for 2026.
As global economic indicators increasingly hint at a potential recession, understanding the anticipated impact on commodity prices is critical for businesses planning their procurement, pricing, and supply chain strategies in the coming years.
Navigating the Trump Tariff Turbulence: A Comprehensive Timeline
US President Donald Trump and his administration have paused reciprocal tariffs on most countries.
“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown... I am hereby raising the [tariff] charged to China by the [USA] to 125%, effective immediately,” wrote Trump on Truth Social at 1:18 pm ET.
It’s not clear if this 125% is in addition to the 20% imposed on Chinese imports to the US. In early March, Trump noted that he would add another 10% tariff on Chinese goods...
ANALYSIS: Hot and Dry Summer Threatens European Corn Yields
According to the European Commission, western Europe experienced its warmest June on record this summer. Market participants told Expana that while hot and dry conditions supported wheat harvesting, they significantly threaten European corn yields. FranceAgriMer projects the 2025 French corn crop to be up to 5% lower year-on-year. As of August 18, only 62% of the crop was rated good/excellent, down to the lowest level for this period in three years, compared with 76% last year...
ANALYSIS: Unseasonably Firm Summer Sets Stage for EU Egg Demand in Autumn
The European egg market is entering September with a distinctly different tone than in years past. Where July and August usually bring softer prices and subdued activity, this summer proved the exception. Prices held firm through the first half of the year, and the seasonal dip many anticipated barely materialized, leaving the market stronger than its historical norm.
Caged shell eggs, for example, have held steady at around 1.96 €/kg for several weeks, roughly 45% higher than the seasonal average of 1.35...
Upcoming Webinar: Forecasting the Future of Commodity Prices, Q4 2025 and Beyond
Join us on September 11 at 4 PM CET / 3 PM BST / 10 AM ET for a comprehensive macroeconomic briefing focused on the latest Q4 2025 commodity price forecasts and what lies ahead for 2026.
As global economic indicators increasingly hint at a potential recession, understanding the anticipated impact on commodity prices is critical for businesses
ANALYSIS: UK Beef Market Struggles with Tight Cattle Supply, Weak Demand, and Price Sensitivity
Cattle availability remains tight across the UK and Ireland, with slaughter numbers continuing to decline. Defra data shows a 4.9% year-on-year (YOY) reduction in GB prime cattle slaughter during the first half of 2025. Though cattle supplies remain constrained, subdued consumer demand has been the main driver for the bearish UK beef market lately. Market sources continued to highlight price stagnation in some beef cutouts due to weak sales.
The roasting beef prices have been declining in the past few months as it is...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #23
Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #23."
This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.
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This week, tariff news took a bit of a backseat to US President Trump’s dealings with Russian President Putin in Alaska—along with President Trump’s meeting with many European leaders...
Global Dairy Trade Index Clears at $4,291 on August 19
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index edged down by 0.3% on August 19, clearing at $4,291/MT.
The total volume sold fell to around 36,553 metric tons (MT) from 37,040 MT sold on August 5, with around 160 participating bidders.
Lactose was again not offered at the event, and butter milk powder was not assessed. In the previous event, butter milk powder had fallen by 2.0% to $3,050/MT.
Price changes were mixed across the products. Mozzarella led losses, falling by 2.7% to...
Moldovan Poultry Producer Axedum to Invest €9 Mln in Expansion
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Moldovan bank Maib have approved €9 million in financing for the poultry producer Axedum, both banks announced.
The funds “will finance the construction of a modern feed mill and enable Axedum to expand into a new business line of egg production,” the EBRD said.
Axedum is seeking to export its products into the European Union. Moldova holds EU accession candidate status...
Hendrix Genetics Invests in New Poultry Pedigree Facility in the Netherlands
Dutch-based Hendrix Genetics is investing in a pedigree facility in the Netherlands as part of a new poultry breeding program, the company said. Hendrix Genetics specializes in the breeding of turkeys, poultry, swine, salmon, trout and shrimp.
“The facility will support the growth of Hendrix Genetics’ Layers and Traditional Poultry Breeding Program,” the company said.
Hendrix Genetics expects to start operations this month and reach full capacity within six to eight months.
The facility has a modern hatchery as well as rearing and production houses...
European Processor Dawn Meats to Acquire New Zealand Sheep Meat Exporter Alliance
Ireland-based processor Dawn Meats, specialized in red meat, has agreed to acquire 65% of Alliance Group for $250 million.
Alliance is one of the largest exporters of New Zealand sheep meat, but it also exports beef, venison, and others to around 65 countries, DC Advisory, the company advising the acquisition, said. Currently, Dawn Meats exports to around 50 countries, with a turnover of €3 billion, the company said.
The acquisition fits within the company’s growth plans. “A key part of Dawn’s strategic growth plan...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #22
Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #22."
The timeline for tariff negotiations between the US and China trade teams has been extended for another 90 days—moving the deadline to November 10, according to a White House fact sheet...
ANALYSIS: Brazil Sets New Record with July 2025 Beef Exports
According to the latest data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, Brazil has shipped 276,879 mt of fresh beef (frozen and refrigerated) in July 2025, marking a monthly growth of 15.3% and a 13.3% YOY increase.
China maintained its position as the top destination, absorbing 158,374 mt last month, marking a solid growth of 17.8% MOM and 29.7% YOY. The Asian country has maintained strong momentum since the start of the year, now accounting for 57.2% of Brazil’s total beef exports...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #21
Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #21."
On August 6, US President Trump issued an executive order that imposes a new 25% additional ad valorem tariff on imports from India into the States, effective 21 days after the White House announcement...
Global Dairy Trade Index Extends Gains by 0.7% on August 5
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index rose for the second time this summer, edging up for the second consecutive week to $4,380/MT on August 5. I was up by 0.7% compared to $4,380/MT on the previous index on July 15.
The total volume sold rose to around 37,040 metric tons (MT) from 24,290 MT sold on July 15, despite fewer participating bidders.
Price changes were mixed across the products. The prices for whole and skim milk powder both extended gains on this event...
UK Retailers React to Tariff Uncertainty With 76% of Exporters Diversifying Beyond the US Market
New research from ESW and Retail Economics reveals that 76% of UK exporters are now actively diversifying beyond the US, historically the UK’s largest non-EU retail market. Larger UK retailers are radically re-drawing their global growth playbooks as protectionist trade policies upend decades-old export patterns. However, 71% of small UK retailers admit they have no formal plan for sudden trade-policy shocks, a stark operational gap that could hit margins overnight.
The report, “Rethinking Reach...
ANALYSIS: EU Pork Carcass Price Declines During July
After reaching this year’s price peak at €2.13/kg on July 1st, the index for EU Pig deadweight grade S EXW EU (BW56) has decreased continuously since then, with the last price assessment being at €2.03/kg on July 29th. However, while the price index decreased throughout the month, the market sentiment of the underlying countries was reported as main divers. While price decreases across the German, Polish and Spanish market drove the EU pork basket lower, the French market held steady during the month, limiting the downward
PODCAST: Agri-Food for Thought Ep. 32 - M&A in the Global Agri-Food Industry, July 2025 Overview
Expana presents Agri-Food for Thought, the podcast series for agriculture and food professionals.Today, we bring you up to speed with merger & acquisition activity in the global agrifood landscape that occurred in July 2025 as part of the monthly M&A focus series.
July 2025 M&A activity somewhat slowed down compared to previous months. The ongoing tariffs situation, the global focus on trade deals, other trade disputes, and market uncertainty, have a role to play here
Trump Signs Sweeping Executive Order Revamping US Tariff Rates; 15% Floor for Deficit Nations
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on July 31, unveiling a massive overhaul of US tariff policy, introducing a series of new import rates for US trading partners (find the full rate list below).
Under the new plan, countries with which the US has a trade deficit will face a minimum 15% tariff, affecting more than 30 nations. Meanwhile, the administration’s existing 10% “universal” tariff will remain in place for countries where US exports exceed imports...
Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #20
Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #20."
As of July 27, the United States and the European Union reached a trade agreement: The US will charge a 15% tariff on all imports across-the-board from the coalition of countries...
White House Unveils 40% Additional Tariffs on Brazilian Imports; Orange Juice, Nuts Spared
On the afternoon of July 30, Brazil was assigned an additional 40% tariff rate, according to a White House statement. US President Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) which will add to the current baseline 10% tariff on foreign good imported to the US. However, Trump teased upping that rate for ~200 countries where a trade deal would not make sense to negotiate. For now, it’s clear that 40% is in addition to any currently applicable US tariff...
Inside the Mind of a Procurement Strategist: Former Kellanova CPO Looks at Key Trends
At Expana’s Agri-Food Americas event on September 23-24 in Chicago, procurement critical thinking and business solution finding will take center stage. Expert insights will be given and many networking opportunities will be enabled for attendees, who are all faced with disruptive trade shits and global agricultural commodity supply chain woes.
The ambition is for agri-food leaders to unite, discuss, seek expert overviews, and gain some sense of direction and clarity they can ultimately take back home and apply to their procurement strategies.
Trump Announces August 1 Tariffs — Here's the Complete List
UPDATE July 22, 2025: US President Trump States 19% for the Philippines, Indonesia
After a press conference with the President of the Philippines, Trump confirmed the 19% rates for the Philippines and Indonesia, when he posted to Truth Social.
UPDATE July 14, 2025: EU, Mexico Slapped with 30% Tariffs
President Donald Trump has expanded his administration’s tariff policy, targeting the European Union and Mexico with newly announced 30% tariffs on all products imported into the United States. Read Expana's coverage here.
UPDATE: July 10, 2025
President Trump imposed a 35% tariff...
FEATURED STORIES
ANALYSIS: Rains and Larger Planted Area in Argentina Could Boost Corn Output in 2025/2026
ANALYSIS: Key Factors Shaping the Mexican Beef Cutout in 2025
ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Remain Tight Amid Efforts to Replenish Freezers