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Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending May 15, 2026
The US-Israel war on Iran is entering its 12th week, with markets remaining focused on tensions in the Gulf and the growing risk of prolonged disruption to global energy flows.
US President Donald Trump departed Beijing following a visit to China that featured notably warm exchanges with Chinese President Xi Jinping, though the meetings produced little visible progress on de-escalation.
Meanwhile, talks in Lebanon aim to extend a fragile ceasefire set to expire Sunday, amid continued violence following US and Israeli strikes in Iran and renewed fighting in...
Day 49 of Iran War: Oil Slumps as Iran Opens Hormuz; Lebanon Ceasefire Fuels Hopes of Wider Deal
With a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon taking effect, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial vessels for the duration of the truce, Reuters reported.
US President Donald Trump said a broader deal to end the war involving Iran is “very close,” with another round of negotiations potentially taking place this weekend in Islamabad.
Despite signs of progress, significant hurdles remain as key differences persist, leaving both sides preparing for either a diplomatic breakthrough...
Day 40 of Iran War: US, Iran Agree to Two-Week Truce as Hormuz Reopening Tied to Talks
The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week truce late Tuesday, with Tehran committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under temporary arrangements. The White House said Israel was also party to the truce.
Under the ceasefire terms, Iran and Oman would coordinate shipping access and could levy transit fees on vessels passing through Hormuz, a critical artery for roughly one-fifth of global oil flows.
The reopening of the strait would free approximately 130 million barrels of crude oil...
Day 28 of Iran War: Trump Delays Attacks on Iranian Energy Infrastructure
US President Donald Trump has delayed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days until April 6, saying talks with Tehran are “going very well,” despite Iranian officials rejecting the US proposal as unfair.
US and Israeli forces continued strikes on Iranian cities, while Iran fired retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf states.
Pakistan said it was relaying messages between Washington and Tehran, with Türkiye and Egypt also supporting mediation efforts as diplomatic activity intensifies to prevent a broader regional conflict.
Officials said mediators were...
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