Rabobank: Poultry Q4 2019 Outlook 

Global poultry markets are expected to see some recovery in the coming months. However, this will be under fragile conditions. Key concerns are the ongoing oversupply situations in many global markets, like the EU, US and South Africa. Actually, only disease-affected China and Mexico, and Brazil (due to the combination of supply reduction and improved export demand), are performing relatively well. Other markets are suffering from oversupply.

Therefore, more disciplined supply should be the key to returning to profitability for the global poultry industry in 2H 2019. Notable positives are the expected ASF-related strength in pork prices, and the limited feed price upside risks, given the relatively good feed grain supply position expected in...

Pork Producers Urge Congress to Ratify USMCA and Support Measures to Prevent Foreign Animal Disease

Congressional ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), allowing the U.S. pork industry to maintain zero-duty market access to two of its largest export markets, remains a top priority for the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). More than 120 pork producers from across the country helped spread this and other messages on Capitol Hill this week during NPPC’s Fall Legislative Action Conference (LAC).

“Last year, Canada and Mexico took over 40 percent of the pork that was exported from the U.S. and they are expected to be a large percentage this year as well,” said NPPC President David Herring, a pork producer from Lillington, N.C. “USMCA will strengthen...

PODCAST: Got Beef? African Swine Fever, Record Beef Margins, and the Global Protein Summit

This week Laura interviews Boxed Beef Reporter Gary Morrison and Pork Reporter Russ Barton. They discuss the Holcomb plant fire and it's affect on boxed beef margins, the latest outbreaks of African Swine Fever, and the topics of Urner Barry's Global Protein Summit in October!

Rabobank: Outside Influences on the Grains & Oilseeds Industry

African Swine Fever Update: Impact on Feed

Chinese pork production in 2019 is expected to decline 25%, with a further 10% drop in 2020. The forecast is for the hog herd to be down by 50% by the end of 2019, before stabilizing somewhat in 2020. Other meat and seafood production and consumption will rise. Pork imports into China are already on the rise, with Spain, Germany, and Canada the key suppliers so far this year. However, we see the potential of non-EU countries gaining higher shares in 2020, as EU production doesn’t seem to be responding strongly enough to meet expected Chinese demand.

Impact on G&O: We are maintaining our projections for China’s feed use and soybean imports from last month. In 2019, the year-on-year drop of China’s hog feed is projected at 35%, with a 5% rebound in 2020. Poultry feed will rise significantly in 2019 and 2020, while aquafeed will only rise by about 5%, with other feed also only growing marginally. Still, total feed in 2019 is seen down...

U.S. Pork Industry Receives USDA Grant to Open ASF Dialogue in Asia 

The global outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), a disease affecting only pigs with no human health or food safety risks, is growing, with new cases appearing throughout Southeast Asia and China. While there are no reported cases of ASF in the U.S., a grant recently awarded to the Swine Health Information Center (SHIC), with active support from the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), aims to start a dialogue between the two regions, sharing veterinary knowledge and ways to prevent the disease from further spreading.

The approximately $1.7 million grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Animal Service division will fund the multi-phase project, helping to build strategic partnerships, while increasing trade of U.S. pork to the region. The work will include swine health field projects, including...

Canada, Mexico and U.S. Plan North American Strategy for African Swine Fever Prevention

Today, the Chief Veterinary Officer (CVO) for the United States, Dr. Burke Healey, along with the CVO for Canada, Dr. Jaspinder Komal, and the CVO for Mexico, Dr. Juan Gay Gutierrez, issued the following statement about the 18th North American Animal Health Committee Meeting (NAAHC).

“The NAAHC meets annually to review and plan our countries’ coordinated activities around animal health, which includes our prevention and preparedness efforts for animal health diseases such as avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease.

This year, we dedicated a special session to discussing African swine fever (ASF), the actions we are taking to prevent its spread to North America, and how to...

Pork Quarterly Q3 2019: Disease and Trade Issues are Jointly Changing the Global Market

Rising disease pressures are challenging the global market. Specifically, African swine fever (ASF) continues to threaten the global pork market, not only by causing a production drop in Asian countries, but also adding uncertainty to trade and production prospects in other parts of the world. While China’s pork prices have started to move higher, production responses in the rest of the world appear cautious. Other factors, including disease management and weather, are hindering production in Europe and Brazil. The resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations is a positive development, implying a chance for China to review tariffs on US pork imports.

China: Pig Herd Losses Growing

ASF continues to spread in China, with new cases mainly reported in South China. Live hog prices are finally...

U.S. Pork Industry Battling Challenges, NPPC President Tells Capitol Hill

The U.S. pork industry faces numerous challenges both at home and abroad that, if not addressed, will pose significant harm to our farms, rural communities and ultimately consumers, National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) President David Herring, a pork producer from Lillington, N.C., testified this morning before the House Agriculture Subcommittee on Livestock and Foreign Agriculture.

“One of the most damaging threats to the U.S. pork industry has been the punitive, retaliatory trade tariffs that China and other countries have imposed,” Herring told the subcommittee.

China is the largest consumer and importer of pork in the world, but U.S. hog farmers have been sidelined, Herring told the subcommittee, due to China’s...

Phibro Animal Health Corporation Announces a Significant Advance in the Development of ASF Vaccine

Phibro Animal Health Corporation (NASDAQ:PAHC) today announced it is pursuing patent protection following a significant advance in the on-going development of a vaccine for African Swine Fever (ASF). This important step in the vaccine development process involves the identification of immunogenic epitopes and proteins that show strong potential to form the basis for a vaccine against ASF.

Phibro’s R&D team and its collaborators made this identification through the use of a unique bioinformatics analysis tool in order to select...

REPORTER: Pork: Turbulence Driven by African Swine Fever 

 

REPORTER: Exports Are Vital to U.S. Pork Industry

Without growth in export sales in recent years, the U.S. pork industry would have had far less room for expansion. Maintaining the customer base we have now and stretching international sales even further are vital to any future growth for the U.S. pork industry...

U.S. Pork Producers Seek Main Course, Not Crumbs

Expanding U.S. export markets is vital to the success of American pork producers, but trade disputes with some of our top markets, most notably China, are hampering growth and have caused severe financial harm to U.S. hog farmers, National Pork Producers Council Vice President and Counsel of Global Government Affairs Nick Giordano said today at a Global Business Dialogue event in Washington, D.C.

“Mostly because of free trade agreements, the United States is the leading global exporter of pork. As a result, U.S. pork is an attractive candidate for trade retaliation. America’s hog farmers – and many other sectors of U.S. agriculture...

African Swine Fever Affects China's Pork Consumption

China’s pork consumption has dropped by 10% to 15%, year-to-date, by our estimates, driven by food safety concerns. The level of consumption change varies greatly between the different distribution channels. Looking forward, and reflecting on the current situation and trends, it is quite possible we have seen the ‘peak’ of pork consumption.

Pork Consumption in China has Dropped by 10% to 15%

The losses in China’s pig herd are very difficult to estimate – estimated losses range from 20% to 70%. Data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) has the sow herd down by 22% in the year to April – this is one of the most optimistic estimates we have seen. However, hog and pork prices struggled in April and May, after a brief surge in March, raising significant questions...