US Tariffs on Brazilian Imports Spark Cross-Commodity Concerns

US President Donald Trump’s recent move to raise tariffs on Brazilian imports to 50% starting August 1—up sharply from the 10% rate imposed in early April—has sparked concerns in global markets, with potential ripple effects across commodities like orange juice, beef, coffee, sugar, and seafood.

The trade measures, announced Wednesday, are raising alarms in export-dependent sectors and among US importers, with market participants saying the implications could be wide-ranging. 

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said the country would respond to the newly announced tariff on Brazilian exports with reciprocal measures. Below, Expana analyzes the potential impact...

The Retail Rundown: Independence Day Deals in Focus

As the Fourth of July holiday draws closer, competition for front-page ad space among proteins is heating up. Seafood is currently leading with a 29% share, followed by beef and pork, each capturing 24%. Chicken accounts for 18%, while turkey trails at 2.6%.

Burgers and hot dogs remain backyard barbecue mainstays. Several national grocers were promoting 78–84% lean ground beef under $5 per pound, with eye-catching specials as low as $2.27 on a discounted basis.

Over Father's Day weekend...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Set Stage for Final Summer Push

With Father’s Day in the rearview, grocers are setting the stage for the final big buying event of the summer: the Fourth of July.

The upcoming holiday marks the last major retail push before Labor Day and serves as a key buying window for proteins like beef ahead of the mid-summer lull. To keep product moving, grocers are expected to lean heavily on promotions and feature aggressive pricing in the coming weeks.

Post-Father’s Day, pork and chicken are poised to capture more...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Father’s Day Protein Promotions; CPI Shows Mild Increase

For Father’s Day weekend, seafood leads retail protein promotions, accounting for 28% of total ad volume. Beef follows at 24.8%, with pork close behind at 23.6%. Chicken claims 19% of protein ads, while turkey makes up about 3%.

Egg features remain limited for now but are on track to gain ground next week amid improving retail demand. While egg consumption typically slows around this time of year due to reduced baking and fewer hot breakfasts, eggs are emerging as one of the few proteins seeing price relief at retail—standing out amid peak seasonal...

Volatility Defines 2025 in Food and Agriculture Markets – How do You Navigate It?

2025 has been a year marked by uncertainty in the food and agriculture sector. Volatility is the defining characteristic, with a cascade of global events disrupting pricing, availability and trade dynamics. From geopolitical tensions and severe weather events to animal epidemics and macroeconomic shifts, commodity markets have become increasingly difficult to navigate for buyers and sellers alike.

“The key challenge for businesses at the moment is having to navigate different markets going in different directions,” said Tom Bundgaard, VP of Price Forecasting...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Memorial Day Retail Ads; Weather Poses Challenges

Seafood leads retail protein promotions heading into Memorial Day weekend, accounting for 28.7% of total featured protein ad volume. Pork follows at 25.9%, with beef at 21.3% and chicken at 19.3%.

Egg feature volume is virtually absent amid sluggish retail demand. Warmer weather is prompting a shift toward fruit and cereal for breakfast, while elevated, though easing, shelf prices continue to dampen consumer interest, according to Expana.

Within the seafood category, fresh and frozen fillets represent the largest share of advertised items at nearly 28%. Raw shrimp...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Turn Up the Heat 

Grocers are turning up the heat in this week’s circulars, leaning into classic summer grilling staples—ribs, burgers, and barbecue fixings—signaling early excitement for the season even with Memorial Day still a few weeks away.

Seafood tops this week’s retail protein promotions, claiming roughly 28% of total ad space. Beef follows with 24.7%, trailed by pork at 23.1% and chicken at 20.2%. Turkey ads were slashed by half compared to last week, now accounting for just 3% of circular space.

Retailers are also highlighting festive favorites ahead of Cinco de Mayo. Ground beef in the 78–84% lean range averaged $4.89 per...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Easter Pause Sets Stage for Protein Push

With Easter now in the rearview, retailers will largely tread water, positioning themselves for a seasonal surge in demand ahead of the start of summer.

Grilling demand is beginning to build toward a Memorial Day crescendo, prompting grocers to build inventory and plan aggressive promotions to jumpstart the season. 

But first up is Cinco de Mayo. While it's a smaller holiday, it can still drive foot traffic. Proteins like pork, steak, and chicken are expected to see solid movement as shoppers make tacos, burritos, enchiladas, and other festive fare...

The Retail Rundown: Protein Adds to Holiday Price Gains

Easter week has arrived and grocers are tapping into the holiday's spending momentum. But for consumers, Easter dinner is shaping up to be pricier than last year, with many holiday staples seeing year-over-year price increases.

According to Expana’s latest US Easter Index—which tracks price changes in key holiday-related commodities—overall prices rose 11.8% year-over-year, driven largely by higher costs in the protein and bakery categories.

Expana’s Easter Protein Index, which covers lamb, beef, pork, salmon, cod, and eggs...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #4

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #4."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

The Retail Rundown: Spring Sizzle Fuels Protein Demand

Spring promotions are in full bloom at retail, with holiday-themed ads ramping up. Circulars showcase produce and snacking items alongside grilling staples, aiming to entice shoppers with vibrant displays and seasonal appeal. Beyond holiday preparations, schools and universities are approaching spring break season, likely driving an uptick in foodservice in the coming weeks. 

In some regions, grocers are leveraging hams as loss leaders ahead of Easter. Last week, discounted bone-in ham averaged $2.56 per pound, while spiral-sliced varieties stood at $2.61 per pound—steady to lower than last year’s levels...

The Retail Rundown: 20th Power of Meat Report Reveals Record-Breaking Meat Sales

The 2025 Power of Meat Study was unveiled this week at the Annual Meat Conference in Orlando, Florida, where Anne-Marie Roerink, Principal at 210 Analytics, shared key insights into shoppers' evolving meat and poultry purchasing habits. Here are some key takeaways from the study's 20th edition: 

Meat sales reach new heights 

This year’s report, released by the Meat Institute and The Food Industry Association (FMI), revealed that the meat department set a new sales record in 2024, reaching $105 billion in total...

The Retail Rundown: Fresh Buying Opportunities in Bloom

Tomorrow marks the official start of spring, and retailers are seizing fresh opportunities to capture increased spending with occassions like Easter and peak grilling season soon approaching.

However, for some residents, spring still feels distant as a late-season storm sweeps through the Central US today and tomorrow, potentially impacting purchasing and consumption patterns in affected regions. 

With roughly a month remaining in Lent, seafood remains a focal point in retail promotions, accounting for 33% of protein advertisements, primarily driven by fresh/frozen fillets as well...

The Retail Rundown: Key Buying Occasions on the Horizon 

March presents key retail buying opportunities as spring holidays approach and Lent influences shopping and dining habits.

With Lent beginning today, meat sales typically decline as participants shift toward seafood. This week, seafood promotions rose to 28% of total retail features, up from 26% last week. Currently, 31% of seafood ads highlight fresh or frozen fillets, with options like salmon, cod, and catfish averaging $9.30 per pound on discount—nearly 9% higher than a year ago.

Elsewhere in the retail landscape, beef and pork each account for nearly 25% of featured promotions...

Trump’s Political Appointments: What They Mean for Commodity Markets

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in for this second term as US President. JD Vance also took the oath of office to become the 47th Vice President.

The new President and his political appointments have dotted headlines in the agricultural commodity space and beyond–grabbing the attention of individuals worldwide. More importantly, the people Trump is bringing aboard to lead, regulate, or deregulate the country’s industries will carry with them implications for domestic and international commodity markets...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Rides the Lenten Wave

With March just around the corner, the first signs of spring and warmer days are emerging—welcome news for both consumers and grocers.

Seafood leads this week's protein advertisements, accounting for 26% of total features, closely followed by beef and chicken at 23% each. Pork ads make up 22%, while turkey holds a 3.5% share. Egg promotions remain scarce, extending a two-week trend.

In the seafood complex, fillet promotions are ramping up ahead of the Lenten season, now making up 33.5% of the category’s volume. Ads for both raw and cooked...

The Retail Rundown: Cold Weather Influences Demand

As February winds down, grocers are looking ahead to the arrival of spring and warmer weather, which typically sparks renewed retail demand after a slower start to the year.

For now, wintry weather remains in full blast, with record-breaking cold temperatures and heavy snow impacting the Central and Eastern US this week. These conditions could support continued retail demand for items like eggs, which are seeing strong consumer interest despite rising shelf prices. However, the extreme cold may not be as favorable for meat consumption, especially in southern regions accustomed to year...

The Retail Rundown: Valentine’s Day Brings Foodservice Gains 

The grocery segment received a boost from last weekend’s pro-football championship game, with strong movement at the meat case. According to Circana data, retail chicken wing sales ahead of the game reached about $8.7 million, up from $8.5 million the previous week. Pork ribs brought in nearly $7 million, rising from $6.7 million, while ground beef sales totaled approximately $76 million, compared to $74.7 million the prior week. 

Looking ahead, February is typically a slower month for retail and overall meat demand. However, Valentine’s... 

US Valentine's Day Index 2025

As Valentine’s Day traditionally provides a boost for restaurants and confectionary retailers, Expana has analyzed the key commodities associated with this holiday.

Expana’s US Valentine's Day Chocolate Index consists of cocoa beans, sugar, and skimmed milk powder (SMP). In addition, consumption of strawberries increases during the Valentine’s Day period, and vanilla is widely used in preparation of cakes and chocolates. As a result, Expana has included the prices of these commodities separately in this report.

Although US consumers and retailers will welcome more affordable meal prices than in 2024, the cost of confectionery this Valentine’s...

Trudeau: Trump Will Pause Tariffs on Canada for 30 Days

As of Monday evening, US President Trump will postpone 25% tariffs on Canada, Reuters reported after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wrote an X post about the matter.

After the day's second conversation with Trump, Trudeau wrote:

"I just had a good call with President Trump. Canada is implementing our $1.3 billion border plan — reinforcing the border with new choppers, technology and personnel, enhanced coordination with our American partners, and increased resources to stop the flow of fentanyl. Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting..."

USDA Announces Approval of D-SNAP for California Disaster Areas

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that people recovering from the impact of recent wildfires and straight-line winds may be eligible for food assistance through USDA’s Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP). Approximately 81,477 households in 28 zip codes in Los Angeles County are estimated to be eligible for this relief to help with grocery expenses.

Through this program, which USDA makes available through states in the aftermath of disasters, people who may not be eligible for SNAP under normal circumstances can participate if they meet...

The Retail Rundown: Arctic Blast Supports Egg Demand While Seafood Leads Ads

Seafood continues to lead the retail protein category for the fourth consecutive week, accounting for 29% of all featured advertisements. Beef comes in second with 25%, while pork and chicken are tied at 20% each.

Arctic air across much of the country and an unusual winter storm in the South have influenced product movement and demand this week. Expana reports that the frigid conditions have boosted egg demand as consumers stock up on essentials.

Wholesale egg prices have ascended to a fresh all-time high, with Expana’s Midwest large quotation at...

Aldi’s Making Waves With New European Locations and a Chardonnay Partnership

In January’s fourth week, news about the discount grocery store Aldi made food industry headlines with talk of expansion, and an alcohol partnership that will help clean the ocean.

In 2025, Aldi is set to open nine stores in London, the company announced. The openings in Wimbledon, Fulham Broadway, Caterham, and Orpington are part of the grocery chain’s £650 million investment in Britain during this new year.

Furthermore, leaders of this grocery chain plan to open 40 new supermarkets in Spain. So, shoppers in regions like Andalusia, Madrid...

The Retail Rundown: Weekly Protein Recap; CPI Update

Seafood leads protein advertising for a third consecutive week, accounting for nearly 31% of total ad space. Pork follows with nearly 23% and beef makes up 21%. Chicken represents 19% of the advertising share, while eggs capture less than 1%.

The seafood category shows mixed price trends year-over-year (YOY), with fresh cod fillets discounted to $8.37 per pound last week—down 53 cents from the previous year. Prices for catfish and tilapia remained steady YOY, each averaging about $6.60 discounted...

Top 10 Stories from 2024 on Expana

It was a big year for the food and agriculture industry. Below are some of the biggest headlines that sent shockwaves through the trade... 

ANALYSIS: US Egg Prices Soar as Production Hits Eight-Year Low Due to HPAI Outbreaks 

May 30, 2024: “Over the past two weeks, U.S. shell egg prices have soared by 45%, largely due to the ongoing spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The bird flu has been spreading across the US since February 2022—though not consistently..."

Billions in Aid Approved for US Farmers

As a government shutdown loomed, the US Congress passed spending legislation named the American Relief Act which was signed by President Biden on December 21, 2024. For agriculture and food-related commodities, this legislation contains one-time economic assistance payments, disaster relief payments, as well as partial funding from the rolled-over farm bill.

Part of the funding approved was $10 billion to support some American farmers across the nation. Within 90 days, economic assistance payments will only be dealt to farmers of eligible commodities like corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, canola, mustard...

FDA Updates “Healthy” Food Definition for US Food Products

Officials from the FDA updated the organization’s definition of the word “healthy,” according to an FDA constituent update. 

A food product’s packaging can bear the word “healthy” if the food adheres to specified limits for saturated fats, sodium, and added sugars. Additionally, “healthy” food contains “at least one of the food groups or subgroups (such as fruits, vegetables, fat-free and low-fat dairy, etc.) recommended by the Dietary Guidelines,” according to the FDA’s new definition. 

For example, a “healthy” grain product should not contain more than 5% saturated fat...

The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Trends for Ribs vs. Hams

With Christmas just two weeks away, this week’s retail rundown takes a closer look at two traditional holiday centerpieces: rib roasts and hams. These festive favorites have followed differing paths in the wholesale markets this year, potentially influencing their retail performance in the lead-up to the year-end celebrations.

The wholesale rib market began its seasonal ascent in the third quarter, gaining traction in early August. From August 1 through December 10, prices surged by 42 percent, far surpassing the 5-year average increase of 17 percent for the same period...

USDA Launches Agribusiness Trade Mission to Morocco

U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service Administrator Daniel Whitley arrived in Casablanca today to begin a USDA-sponsored agribusiness trade mission. Whitley is leading a delegation of nearly 50 U.S. agribusinesses and trade groups and 14 state departments of agriculture to expand U.S. farm and food exports to Morocco and other West African markets.

"I am honored to lead this delegation to Casablanca as we work to strengthen vital connections, grow U.S. agricultural exports, and showcase the broad array of products American agriculture has to...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Countdown Rapidly Winds Down

With Thanksgiving just three weeks away, the holiday rush is fueling retail traffic as shoppers stock up on essentials. This week, turkey promotions account for 3.3 percent of all protein ads, down from 5 percent the previous week. The number of grocery chains featuring turkeys also declined, with 39 chains participating, compared to 49 chains a week earlier.

Despite fewer promotions, fresh whole turkey sales rose week-over-week, reaching $1.3 million last week, up from $909,368 the week prior, according to Circana...

Publix Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results and Stock Price

Publix’s sales for the three months ended Sept. 28, 2024 were $14.6 billion, a 4.9% increase from $14 billion in 2023. Comparable store sales for the three months ended Sept. 28, 2024 increased 3.4%. The company estimates sales for the three months ended Sept. 28, 2024 increased 0.6% due to the impact of Hurricane Helene.

Net earnings for the three months ended Sept. 28, 2024 were $1.1 billion, compared to $833 million in 2023, an increase of 31.7%. Earnings per share...

FAT Brands Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results

FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc. (“FAT Brands” or the “Company”) today reported financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended September 29, 2024.

Andy Wiederhorn, Chairman of FAT Brands, said, “Over the last three years, we have expanded our brand portfolio to include 18 distinct concepts while our footprint has increased tenfold, now encompassing over 2,300 locations across more than 40 countries and 49 U.S. states or territories. We opened 22 new units during the third quarter, bringing our year-to-date openings to 71 new...

A Tu Gusto, LLC Recalls Frozen Croquette Products Produced Without the Benefit of Inspection 

A Tu Gusto, LLC, a Lehigh Acres, Fla. firm, is recalling approximately 7,630 pounds of frozen meat and poultry croquette products that were produced without the benefit of federal inspection and may contain undeclared allergens, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains soy, sesame seed and wheat, known allergens, which are not declared on the product label.

The frozen meat and poultry items were produced between April and October of 2024... 

The Retail Rundown: Eggs Rule the Roost During Baking Season 

As October reaches its midpoint, many homes are filled with the irresistible aromas of freshly baked goods, marking the onset of the holiday baking season.

This seasonal shift benefits the egg case as eggs find their way into breads, cookies, pastries, pies, and more. Also, more consumers are reaching for hot breakfasts as the weather turns colder, which further boosts egg demand.

Data from Circana shows that the average retail feature price for large, white Grade A eggs averaged $3.72 per dozen last week...

How a Port Strike Could Ripple Through the Ag Sector

The port strike has entered its third day and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) has signaled that they are willing to resume negotiations with the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), but without preconditions made by the union. 

In an update provided Wednesday, USMX stated: "Reaching an agreement will require negotiating – and our full focus is on how to return to the table to further discuss these vital components, many of which are intertwined. We cannot agree to preconditions to return to bargaining – but we remain committed to bargaining in good...

Live Updates: Key Developments in the East and Gulf Coast Port Strike

October 3: The port strike has entered its third day and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) signaled that they are willing to resume negotiations with the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), but without preconditions made by the union. 

In an update provided Wednesday, USMX stated: "Reaching an agreement will require negotiating – and our full focus is on how to return to the table to further discuss these vital components, many of which are intertwined. We cannot agree to preconditions...

The Retail Rundown:  Port Strike Sends Shockwaves Throughout Supply Chain 

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports officially began once the calendar turned to October, following unsuccessful contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).

The strike's impact is being felt throughout the supply chain, causing significant disruptions in the flow of goods ahead of the rapidly approaching holiday season. 

In a statement released on Tuesday, USMX stated that its current offer includes a nearly 50% wage increase. In response, ILA said it has rejected USX's offer "because it fails to address...

The Retail Rundown: Onwards to October

With October nearing, the shift in retail meat features from grilling cuts to roasts is picking up pace. More households are utilizing their ovens and crockpots, making it prime time for hearty ingredients like chuck roasts and pork shoulders.

Still, warmer weather lingers in some regions. For those with favorable grilling conditions, shoppers may find deals on items like steaks, ribs, and pork chops as retailers work to move any extra inventory. 

This week’s retail buying opportunities show seafood continuing to lead, making up 26.9% of protein advertisements, followed by pork at 24.7%, beef at 21.2%...

O’Charley’s Rolls Out the Red Carpet with New V.I.P. Menu and Expanded Core Menu Featuring Prime Rib

O’Charley’s Restaurant + Bar is excited to announce the launch of its new Value Inspired Plates (V.I.P.) menu on September 23. With 15 budget-friendly items all priced at $12.99 and under, guests can enjoy incredible flavors and great value without breaking the bank. Who says being a V.I.P. has to come with a big price tag?

As a V.I.P., you’re invited to indulge in a variety of delicious dishes that deliver both value and flavor...

The Retail Rundown: Going All-Out for Autumn

Fall is just around the corner, with the official start of autumn this Sunday, September 22. As cooler weather sets in and travel plans wind down, grocers are ramping up their offerings of seasonal favorites to align with the change in consumer preferences. 

According to the Expana Retail Activity Index, seafood continues to lead for the fourth week in a row, making up 30% of total protein ads. Beef and pork are close behind, each at around 25%, while chicken accounts for 14%. Eggs represent 2.8% of retail opportunities, and turkey has 2.3%...

Red Lobster Emerges from Bankruptcy, Officially Names New CEO

Red Lobster has closed the book on its bankruptcy and enters a new era with a new captain at the helm.

The seafood restaurant chain announced its exit from Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the completion of its acquisition by RL Investor Holdings LLC. The firm also officially announced Damola Adamolekun as its new CEO.

Earlier this month, a federal court approved Red Lobster’s bankruptcy plan, paving the way for RL Investor Holdings to snatch up the company and keep its over 500 locations in operation, along with the...

The Retail Rundown: Rising Feature Volume for Roasts

This month marks an ideal blend of seasons for the retail sector, as grilling cuts continue to be featured along with autumn favorites like hearty roasts and everything pumpkin. The shift to cooler weather is already being reflected in increased promotions for pork and beef roasts, which have earned a larger share of circular ad space this week. 

In the beef category, roasts now account for 26.4 percent of total ad space, up from 17 percent the previous week. Steak promotions eased to 36.9 percent, a nearly 10-point decline from...

KPOT Announces Opening of 80th Location, First Location in NYC

KPOT Korean BBQ & Hot Pot, a unique, hands-on, all-you-can-eat dining experience that merges traditional Asian Hot Pot with Korean BBQ flavors, today announces the opening of its 80th location, which also happens to be its first location in New York City located at 310 W 38th St in Manhattan’s Midtown West neighborhood.

KPOT offers a diverse culinary experience with an extensive selection of premium meats, fresh seafood, and crisp vegetables for both its BBQ and Hot Pot offerings...

The Retail Rundown: September's Seasonal Shifts

Although there are about two weeks left to enjoy summer, many consider the season unofficially over following Labor Day. The retail landscape is starting to reflect this shift, where factors like cooler weather and football season are already influencing consumer demand. 

The frozen/convenience aisles and deli counters benefit from back-to-school needs and provide quick meals for busy households. Circana data indicates that prepared dishes/kits earned $18.1 million in total sales last week, up from $17.7 million the week prior. Over in lunchmeat, fresh packaged turkey retailed at $7.21 discounted, an 18-cent year-over-year decrease.  

The Retail Rundown: Leaping Towards Labor Day

Labor Day weekend, often viewed as the unofficial end of summer, is just two weeks out. Many families are seizing the opportunity for one last vacation, boosting foodservice spending.

For some students, summer break has already concluded, and back-to-school shopping for essentials like breakfast and lunch items is in full swing. Among retailers, Labor Day is recognized as the final major grilling event of the year, marking the last big push to promote barbecue favorites.

Last week, boneless skinless chicken breasts were featured at $4.43 discounted, 18 cents above...

The Retail Rundown: Multiple Factors Fuel Promotions; CPI Update

As we reach mid-August, grocery stores are transitioning their end caps from summer displays to game-day essentials, gearing up for the NFL regular season. At the same time, circulars are packed with barbecue items for the upcoming Labor Day weekend along with back-to-school essentials as some regions are already welcoming students back to class.

This week, seafood continues to dominate, representing about 28% of total protein volume in retail buying opportunities. Pork follows with a 23.4% share, while beef captures...