ANALYSIS: Volatile Market Conditions Shape US Turkey Exports in May

May’s export report showcases a volatile turkey export market. The total values follow a very similar trend as in past months, with a lower year-over-year (YOY) volume and a below-average month-over-month (MOM) change. This is primarily driven by the Mexican market, while the others show quite a bit more variability.

Based on the 5-year average, Mexico generally accounts for 69.2% of the total volume of turkey exported from the US during the month of May. This past May, they accounted...

The Retail Rundown: Retailers Push Value to Maintain Protein Momentum

Retail meat clearance over the Independence Day holiday was generally strong, with consumers stocking up on grilling staples for the summer’s flagship cookout occasion.

With few major buying events remaining this summer, grocers will likely push aggressive features and highlight value finds to sustain shopper engagement through the dog days of summer.

Post-holiday protein advertisements show seafood maintaining the lead at 33.1% of retail features, followed by beef at 25.1% and pork at 21.5%. Chicken accounted for 16.2%, while turkey fell to just 2%—half of the previous week's...

367,812 Pounds of Oscar Mayer Turkey Bacon Recalled Nationwide Over Listeria Concerns

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), the Kraft Heinz Food Company is recalling approximately 367,812 pounds of fully cooked turkey bacon products due to potential contamination with Listeria monocytogenes, identified through laboratory testing.

The affected products were produced between April 24, 2025, and June 11, 2025. They were distributed to retail locations nationwide and exported to the British Virgin Islands and Hong Kong.

The recalled products include:

• 12-oz. vacuum-packed packages of Oscar Mayer Turkey...

ANALYSIS: Summer Squeeze, Limited Turkey Supplies and Consumer Choices

May’s cold storage report tells a story of limited turkey supplies and the search of the American people for value. All turkey categories were down year-over-year (YoY), anywhere from 3.1% for whole toms to 49.7% for MST. This May’s cold storage holdings were below the 5-year average for most categories as well, with the exception of breasts. Along with this theme, the month-over-month (MoM) change in inventories was below average for whole birds and legs.

All of this points to very limited production...

ANALYSIS: Retail Turkey Distribution Climbs Amid Price Hikes and Inventory Woes

So far, retail distribution of turkey is up 39.6% in June while year-to-date (YTD) it is down 1.9%. The relatively robust June distribution comes at a time when turkey prices continue to skyrocket, as evidenced by the growing gap in this year's Expana Turkey Index compared to the 5-year average.

Despite this June’s Expana Turkey Index outpacing the 5-year average by 40.7%, the average price at retail has only been up 9.7% compared to the 5-year average. This means...

The Retail Rundown: Independence Day Deals in Focus

As the Fourth of July holiday draws closer, competition for front-page ad space among proteins is heating up. Seafood is currently leading with a 29% share, followed by beef and pork, each capturing 24%. Chicken accounts for 18%, while turkey trails at 2.6%.

Burgers and hot dogs remain backyard barbecue mainstays. Several national grocers were promoting 78–84% lean ground beef under $5 per pound, with eye-catching specials as low as $2.27 on a discounted basis.

Over Father's Day weekend...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Producers Eye Potential Supply Boost

While this year's turkey egg sets and poult placements are still below the 5-year average, there has been a year-over-year (YOY) increase in all these values.

Over the past year, supplies of most lines within the turkey complex have consistently been barely adequate to short of needs. This has resulted in rapidly rising prices with 21 quotations reaching new all-time highs. Many participants from both sides of the negotiation table have been anxiously wondering when they are going to start seeing increased availability...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Leads Father’s Day Protein Promotions; CPI Shows Mild Increase

For Father’s Day weekend, seafood leads retail protein promotions, accounting for 28% of total ad volume. Beef follows at 24.8%, with pork close behind at 23.6%. Chicken claims 19% of protein ads, while turkey makes up about 3%.

Egg features remain limited for now but are on track to gain ground next week amid improving retail demand. While egg consumption typically slows around this time of year due to reduced baking and fewer hot breakfasts, eggs are emerging as one of the few proteins seeing price relief at retail—standing out amid peak seasonal...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Slide, How Tariffs and Other Headwinds Hit the Market

Total turkey exports ended the month of April down approximately 23.7% year-over-year (YOY). This was primarily driven by a 23.5% decrease in the volume moved to Mexico, which made up 83.2% of international purchasing of US turkey for April compared to a 5-year average of 67.1%. Much of the changes to US exports of turkey during the spring can be related to tariffs, along with ongoing production concerns.

The month-over-month (MOM) change was only a decline of 0.9%, compared...

ANALYSIS: Supply-Driven Pricing in the Turkey Market

The number of turkeys processed in April was at an all-time low, following a trend that was established in August of last year. HPAI, avian metapneumovirus, and economic limitations all continue to impact the availability of supplies. The record low supplies are influencing an extremely bullish market as 21 of Expana’s quotations reach all-time high levels. Still, participants on both sides of the negotiation table lament the lack of offerings. Many sellers have reportedly taken a cautious approach when it comes to the pricing of certain lines, especially... 

The Retail Rundown: Pork Deals Deliver Summer Savings

Pork promotions are gaining momentum, with value-priced cuts standing out against higher-priced beef and even some chicken items.

Bacon continues to steal the spotlight in the pork category, fueled by strong seasonal demand as consumers stock up on this summer staple. Over Memorial Day, discounted bacon averaged $6.30 per pound, up nearly 3% from last year. Wholesale belly prices have climbed 13% since early April, supported by tightening hog supplies and historically low cold storage stocks.

As grilling season gains momentum, demand for ribs...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #11

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #11."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Remain at Multi-Year Low

The latest cold storage report continues to reflect the strain on the US turkey supply chain. Total turkey inventories fell to 318.8 million pounds in April, marking a new seasonal low and an 18.4% year-over-year (YoY) decline from April 2024. This represents the seventh consecutive month of YoY reductions.

A combination of reduced hatchery figures when compared to last year, along with ongoing disease issues, continues to limit overall production output. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) detections year-to-date (YTD) are...

The Retail Rundown: Father’s Day Fires Up Demand for Premium Cuts

Meat sales over Memorial Day weekend appeared to underperform in some regions this year, as cool weather across the Midwest curbed outdoor grilling activity.

Retailers are now setting their sights on the next major grilling event, Father’s Day, paired with hopes for improved weather. Falling on June 15th this year, the event presents another opportunity to drive protein consumption. 

This week’s retail buying opportunities are led by seafood, which accounts for 28.2% of protein ads. Beef has 26.4%, trailed by pork at 23.2%, chicken at 18%, and turkey with...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Hatch Figures Reflect Supply Pinch with Slight Variations

Given the well accounted for supply landscape surrounding most key segments within the turkey complex at the moment, market participants are closely monitoring for any signs of a shift from the prevailing status quo. Although May marked the nineteenth consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the eggs in incubators, there could be some emerging indications that an inflection point may be approaching, at least on paper.

May’s beginning tally of 24.8 million eggs in incubators was just 0.2%, or 51,000 eggs, below the comparable period in...

The Retail Rundown: Pre-Grilling Season Retail Insights

With Memorial Day fast approaching, retailers are ramping up promotions to jumpstart the unofficial kickoff to the summer grilling season—a crucial window for driving foot traffic and boosting meat department sales.

The next two weeks are key, as market participants closely watch consumer demand ahead of what is typically one of the busiest periods for beef sales. Protein items are being prominently showcased alongside vibrant seasonal produce, enhancing the appeal of in-store displays.

Seafood leads the protein feature mix this week, accounting for nearly 30% of all advertised protein items...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Take on Foodservice for a Slice of Mother’s Day Spending

Grocers are gearing up to win a slice of Mother’s Day sales, which are traditionally dominated by restaurants and dining out. While foodservice still captures the lion’s share of spending, supermarkets are making strategic plays to compete for consumers' dollars.

According to the National Retail Federation, Mother’s Day spending is projected to hit $34.1 billion this year—up from $33.5 billion in 2024 and just shy of the 2023 record of $35.7 billion. About 84% of US adults are expected to celebrate, spending an average of $259.04 on gifts and festivities...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Harvest Numbers Continue to Fall Below Industry Norms

The 2025 turkey slaughter trajectory is shaping up to be one of the most historically limited starts in recent memory. USDA data shows federally inspected turkey headcounts for January through March averaging just over 14.5 million per month - an 18% drop from the 24-year average and nearly 19% below the 5-year norm. February was especially weak, with only 13.27 million turkeys harvested - the lowest total for that month in over two decades. Notably, each of the first three months of 2025 has tracked below the previous recorded historical low, firmly establishing the year’s limited supply footing...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Shortage Deepens: March Stocks Drop Below 2022 Levels

The total volume of turkey in cold storage has fallen below 2022 to reach a new all-time low in March. Since October 2024, there has been an ongoing trend of year-over-year (YoY) declines in the total amount of frozen turkey. This is largely attributed to low production figures and a relatively high number of disease-related issues. The total number of turkeys processed has been at an all-time low since November 2024, and this year's year-to-date (YTD) HPAI detections are at the second-highest value on record. Additionally, market discussions have suggested that avian metapneumovirus has been responsible for substantial increases in mortality...

ANALYSIS: March Chicken Inventory Trends Reflect Shifting Domestic and Export Dynamics

Cold storage inventories of chicken continue to diverge from 2023 levels, with March values up 3.1% year-over-year (YoY). Although there was a month-over-month (MoM) decrease from February to March, it was less significant than the typical five-year average decline. This overall trend was largely driven by the breast and breast meat category, which alone accounted for 32% of total chicken supplies in cold storage. Frozen holdings of breasts and breast meat were up 13.7% YoY and declined just 0.6% MoM—far less than the five-year average decrease of 4.2%.

This is particularly notable given the difficulty many domestic buyers faced in uncovering both...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Turn Up the Heat 

Grocers are turning up the heat in this week’s circulars, leaning into classic summer grilling staples—ribs, burgers, and barbecue fixings—signaling early excitement for the season even with Memorial Day still a few weeks away.

Seafood tops this week’s retail protein promotions, claiming roughly 28% of total ad space. Beef follows with 24.7%, trailed by pork at 23.1% and chicken at 20.2%. Turkey ads were slashed by half compared to last week, now accounting for just 3% of circular space.

Retailers are also highlighting festive favorites ahead of Cinco de Mayo. Ground beef in the 78–84% lean range averaged $4.89 per...

ANALYSIS: 2025 YTD Turkey Poult Placements Down 4.0%: Hen Supply Hit Hardest

Year-to-date (YTD) poult placements in 2025 hover an average of 4.0% below the 5-year average. This is a continuation of the ongoing trend of below-average supplies. While HPAI cases are less frequent and the new avian metapneumovirus vaccines are starting to be implemented, the losses sustained by the industry leave a lasting impact that is not quickly overcome. For these reasons, hatcheries only have so many eggs they can set, and growers are also restricted on the number of birds...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Easter Pause Sets Stage for Protein Push

With Easter now in the rearview, retailers will largely tread water, positioning themselves for a seasonal surge in demand ahead of the start of summer.

Grilling demand is beginning to build toward a Memorial Day crescendo, prompting grocers to build inventory and plan aggressive promotions to jumpstart the season. 

But first up is Cinco de Mayo. While it's a smaller holiday, it can still drive foot traffic. Proteins like pork, steak, and chicken are expected to see solid movement as shoppers make tacos, burritos, enchiladas, and other festive fare...

ANALYSIS: Turkey HPAI Update - Week of 4/6/25

Outbreak Summary

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 1.67 million turkeys have been lost to HPAI in 2025. This is up 499% year-over-year (YoY) and is down 56% from 2022 when the outbreak began. Of the turkeys impacted this year, 3% have been commercial breeder hens, 1% have been commercial breeder replacement hens, and 96% have been commercial meat birds. There have been 11 unique states impacted which is the largest YTD value since the start of the outbreak, up 83% YoY and up...

ANALYSIS: February Turkey Exports Reveal Shifts in Key Markets

In a continuation of the trend established in August 2024, total export volumes for the U.S. were down year-over-year (YoY) in February. However, not all individual countries followed this trajectory, as two of the top five, the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas, actually imported greater amounts than they had last year. Meanwhile, the exports to Mexico, Guatemala, and Canada were down in keeping with the total values.

While month-over-month (MoM) values also declined, the decrease from January to February was less...

The Retail Rundown: Protein Adds to Holiday Price Gains

Easter week has arrived and grocers are tapping into the holiday's spending momentum. But for consumers, Easter dinner is shaping up to be pricier than last year, with many holiday staples seeing year-over-year price increases.

According to Expana’s latest US Easter Index—which tracks price changes in key holiday-related commodities—overall prices rose 11.8% year-over-year, driven largely by higher costs in the protein and bakery categories.

Expana’s Easter Protein Index, which covers lamb, beef, pork, salmon, cod, and eggs...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Market Prices Surge as Slaughter Numbers Decline

Monthly turkey slaughter values continue to be reported at record lows with February's headcount retreating 18.8% year-over-year (YoY). This puts year-to-date (YTD) values down 12.4% YoY. Meanwhile, according to data reported from the National Chicken Council, per capita consumption of turkey throughout 2025 is only forecasted to decline 4.5% YoY. With demand outpacing production, prices for much of the turkey complex have been climbing.

Over a quarter of Expana's current turkey quotations are at all-time high values and more than...

The Retail Rundown: Easter Momentum Builds

In the final full week of Lent, seafood accounts for 35% of all protein retail promotions, gaining ground on pork, which holds 23% of ad space. Beef promotions slipped to 20%, while chicken has 15%. Lamb and veal promotions, though still minimal, doubled from the previous week, rising to 2% ahead of Easter.

Notably, Easter falls late this year—on April 20—affecting year-over-year (YOY) comparisons. Ham promotions last week were offered at premium price points compared to 2024. Discounted boneless smoked hams averaged...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Market Faces Uncertainty with Record-Low Inventories

February's cold storage report shows a year-over-year (YoY) decrease for every turkey category. This is largely a result of extremely low production caused by ongoing disease issues. The least dramatic YoY decrease was noted for whole birds with a decline of 5.6%, while the most significant was for MST at a value 26.1% lower. While the overall YoY decrease is indicative of supply constraints, the differences in the losses among these categories tells the story of demand.

Demand for frozen whole turkeys was relatively lackluster throughout Fall '24...

The Retail Rundown: Spring Sizzle Fuels Protein Demand

Spring promotions are in full bloom at retail, with holiday-themed ads ramping up. Circulars showcase produce and snacking items alongside grilling staples, aiming to entice shoppers with vibrant displays and seasonal appeal. Beyond holiday preparations, schools and universities are approaching spring break season, likely driving an uptick in foodservice in the coming weeks. 

In some regions, grocers are leveraging hams as loss leaders ahead of Easter. Last week, discounted bone-in ham averaged $2.56 per pound, while spiral-sliced varieties stood at $2.61 per pound—steady to lower than last year’s levels...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Poult Supply Shrinks in 2025

In what has been a continuation of the established trajectory, turkey poult placements in 2025 are trending notably below the 5-year average for both hen and tom poults, as depicted in the chart. This decline reflects ongoing challenges within the industry, primarily driven by persistent outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and the growing presence of Avian Metapneumovirus (aMPV). HPAI continues to significantly disrupt operations through forced depopulations, movement restrictions, and prolonged farm downtimes, all of which have reduced the availability of breeder stock and subsequently limited poult supply...

The Retail Rundown: 20th Power of Meat Report Reveals Record-Breaking Meat Sales

The 2025 Power of Meat Study was unveiled this week at the Annual Meat Conference in Orlando, Florida, where Anne-Marie Roerink, Principal at 210 Analytics, shared key insights into shoppers' evolving meat and poultry purchasing habits. Here are some key takeaways from the study's 20th edition: 

Meat sales reach new heights 

This year’s report, released by the Meat Institute and The Food Industry Association (FMI), revealed that the meat department set a new sales record in 2024, reaching $105 billion in total...

ANALYSIS: HPAI Crisis Escalates, Record Losses and Uncertainty in the Turkey Market

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, with over 1.6 million turkeys lost, HPAI losses have increased 664% year-over-year and 236% from 2022, which previously held the highest YTD losses. Furthermore, 67,400 breeder and breeder replacement hens have been lost to HPAI this year, whereas there were no losses in 2023 and 2024 YTD. In 2022, 37,800 breeder replacement hens were affected.

Additionally, not only have more birds been lost, but more counties have also been affected. So far this year, HPAI has been...

The Retail Rundown: Fresh Buying Opportunities in Bloom

Tomorrow marks the official start of spring, and retailers are seizing fresh opportunities to capture increased spending with occassions like Easter and peak grilling season soon approaching.

However, for some residents, spring still feels distant as a late-season storm sweeps through the Central US today and tomorrow, potentially impacting purchasing and consumption patterns in affected regions. 

With roughly a month remaining in Lent, seafood remains a focal point in retail promotions, accounting for 33% of protein advertisements, primarily driven by fresh/frozen fillets as well...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports Face Mixed Performance in January Amid Global Production Struggles

January's turkey export numbers vary widely by individual country, but overall trends indicate a continuation of the pattern we've been observing: demand for turkey remains fairly consistent across several international markets, but lower production levels limit export availability.

Mexico closely follows this trend, with a 9.0% month-over-month (MoM) decrease in volume moved compared to the 5-year average MoM decrease of 10.6%, alongside a 4.9% year-over-year (YoY) decline.

Conversely, Canada, Taiwan, and Jamaica all recorded YoY increases in imported volumes...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Leverage Seasonal Trends; Inflation Update

As temperatures rise across much of the US, grocers are highlighting seasonal offerings for springtime occasions and grilling essentials.

Retailers are refining their marketing strategies to align with shifting demand, appealing to sports fans to boost traffic in the meat department. However, securing lower year-over-year protein prices remains a challenge, as factors like animal disease continue to affect availability across key categories.

The wholesale chicken market is gaining traction with baseball season on the horizon, driving demand for boneless items. Expana reports that buyers are scrambling to secure supply...

ANALYSIS: March Pet Food Market Insight Report Released

The animal protein and by-product markets experienced various trends in February, with some sectors showing price stability and others facing fluctuations. Factors such as supply constraints, disease concerns, and shifting demand, particularly within the pet food industry, impacted beef, pork, poultry, and plant-based proteins. Additionally, tariffs and global production dynamics continued to disrupt the availability and pricing of essential feed additives like vitamins, minerals, and amino acids...

ANALYSIS: January's Cold Storage Report Reveals Shrinking Turkey Supplies Amid Decreased Production

January's cold storage report further highlights several of the trends that have been discussed in the turkey market for several months now. Overall, there's less turkey in the freezer than there was a year ago. Additionally, month-over-month (MoM) changes in inventory, while generally seasonal, reflect a decreased amount of production available for storage.

All categories on the report were down year-over-year (YoY) with values ranging from 1.7% to 32.2% lower. The smallest YoY difference was for breasts...

ANALYSIS: December 2024 Turkey Export Trends Reflect Record Low U.S. Production

The total month-over-month (MoM) change in U.S. turkey exports in December was in line with the 5-year average, the volume traded was 14.5% below year-ago levels. This lends support to the idea that demand patterns for most international turkey destinations have remained consistent, but a lower amount of production has been available for export. The decreased number of supplies that can be traded to international destinations comes as no surprise considering that the total volume of ready-to...

The Retail Rundown: Seafood Rides the Lenten Wave

With March just around the corner, the first signs of spring and warmer days are emerging—welcome news for both consumers and grocers.

Seafood leads this week's protein advertisements, accounting for 26% of total features, closely followed by beef and chicken at 23% each. Pork ads make up 22%, while turkey holds a 3.5% share. Egg promotions remain scarce, extending a two-week trend.

In the seafood complex, fillet promotions are ramping up ahead of the Lenten season, now making up 33.5% of the category’s volume. Ads for both raw and cooked...

ANALYSIS: Low Production Reflected by Shrinking Inventories, December’s Turkey Cold Storage Report

In December’s cold storage report, all categories of turkey apart from “other” were down year-over-year (YoY), which was the first time that this had occurred in 2024. For even some of the less sought after items to be lower YoY really highlights the intensive production shortages that plagued the industry. This is further magnified by the fact that month-over-month (MoM) increases in whole bird, breasts, and total inventories were far below the 5-year average MoM increase.

Meanwhile, the disappearance of MST.

ANALYSIS: 2024 Turkey Harvest Hits Record Low

2024 marked the first time on record, dating back to 2001, in which the total number of turkeys processed annually was below 200 million. At a value of approximately 198 million turkeys, 2024’s turkey harvest values fell 8.3% below those of 2023, and 9.2% below the 5-year average. This was the second most dramatic year-over-year (YoY) change ever recorded, lagging just behind 2009 when the number of turkeys harvested fell by 9.4%. This is a very important factor to consider when looking at the...

Applegate Farms, LLC Launches New Ready-to-Heat-and-Eat APPLEGATE NATURALS® Breakfast Sandwiches

The makers of APPLEGATE®, the nation’s leading natural and organic meat brand, are continuing their foray into the breakfast conversation with the launch of their fourth breakfast-product innovation in the last 19 months. Introducing, APPLEGATE NATURALS® Breakfast Sandwiches.

With 58% of U.S. adults eating breakfast at home and 18% eating on the road or at work3, this is Applegate’s fourth breakfast innovation in two years, building on the brand’s commitment to provide high quality, protein breakfast options...

ANALYSIS: From Steady to Skyrocketing: The Unprecedented Rise of Fresh Turkey Thigh Meat Prices

On January 21, the fresh turkey thigh meat quotation reached a record level that has steadily risen since then. Still, thigh meat supplies remain nearly nonexistent, and some sellers toss around asking prices that are nearly 24% higher than the previous all-time high of $2.02. This begs the questions: How did we get to this point, and where do we go from here?

Like many high-powered objects, the energy needed for rocketing prices has been slowly accumulating in the...

The Retail Rundown: Record Championship Game Viewership Expected to Drive Food Sales

As January comes to a close, grocers are actively preparing for the year's first major food-buying event, the pro-football championship game in New Orleans.

With a record-breaking audience expected to tune in to the big game on Sunday, February 9, retail and foodservice sectors anticipate a boost in sales as consumers indulge in game-day finger foods.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), an estimated 203.4 million U.S. adults will tune in with total spending projected to reach $18.6 billion...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Hatch, Searching for Direction Amid Uncertain Times

Given the ongoing and largely unmitigated threat of disease within commercial turkey flocks, market participants are searching high and low for answers or, at the very least, clarity as to what the production landscape might look like further down the road. Although notoriously challenging to predict even on a “normal” year, there are some tools which could help players to more effectively hone their production expectations for 2025. Perhaps one of our best forward-facing indicators is the turkey hatch stats.

As illustrated by this...

IPPE 2025 Live: HPAI's Growing Impact Prompts Urgent Action in Pet Food Industry

At the AFIA Pet Food Conference, held alongside the IPPE event in Atlanta, Leah Wilkinson, Director of Public Policy and Education for the American Feed Industry Association (AFIA), highlighted the growing threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which has expanded beyond poultry to affect various mammal species, including cats and dogs.

"This has traditionally been a wild bird and poultry issue," Wilkinson said. "But in the past year, we've seen HPAI move into cows, field mice, skunks, raccoons, seals, dolphins, polar bears, tigers, lions, and 

ANALYSIS: Navigating the Frozen Whole Turkey Market

If we take a look at Expana’s current 16 lbs. frozen tom turkey quotation in comparison to all the previous data dating back to 1989, it doesn’t look like current prices are that low. However, when inflation is accounted for, we find that it is in the bottom 1% of listed values. In fact, this week’s data is only higher than the inflation-adjusted quotations of 16 other weeks: Late-February through late-March in 2002 and January to early February in 2004.

Interestingly, this value, which is 24% lower than...

APHIS Updates Policy to Enhance Surveillance of Turkey Flocks in HPAI Affected States

As part of its ongoing, multi-faceted efforts to combat the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today is updating its policy for pre-slaughter surveillance to enhance testing of turkey flocks in affected states. In late December 2024, APHIS became aware of a genetic link between turkeys potentially infected with HPAI H5N1, virus detected in raw pet food, and an infected household cat.

Out of an abundance of caution, and to...

Foreign-Owned Agricultural Land in the US Increases

From 2022 to 2023, there was a 1.58-million-acre increase in foreign-held agricultural land, according to Farm Bureau. In the US, 45.85 million acres of agricultural land were held by foreign investors in 2023, representing 3.61% of total privately held agricultural land, according to the USDA’s Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA) report which shows an upward trend of land ownership by foreign entities across the nation. 

Since 2010, reports of foreign-held agricultural land have increased. This expansion is 21 million acres, or an area larger than South Carolina...

Capriotti's Sandwich Shop Debuts First Location in New Jersey

Capriotti's Sandwich Shop (Capriotti's), known for its award-winning, hand-crafted cheese steaks, turkey subs and more, has announced its debut in New Jersey with opening of a new location in Princeton. The shop is slated to open in the Princeton Shopping Center, at 301 N Harrison Street Unit 470 on Jan. 21st, 2025. Capriotti's introduces local communities across the U.S. to the brand's 40-year-old tradition of slow-roasting whole, all-natural turkeys in-house, and other one-of-a-kind sandwiches made using the freshest ingredients...

The Retail Rundown: Weekly Protein Recap; CPI Update

Seafood leads protein advertising for a third consecutive week, accounting for nearly 31% of total ad space. Pork follows with nearly 23% and beef makes up 21%. Chicken represents 19% of the advertising share, while eggs capture less than 1%.

The seafood category shows mixed price trends year-over-year (YOY), with fresh cod fillets discounted to $8.37 per pound last week—down 53 cents from the previous year. Prices for catfish and tilapia remained steady YOY, each averaging about $6.60 discounted...

USDA’s Third New Ruling: Aimed to Help Contract Chicken Farmers

As part of the Packers & Stockyards Act of 1923 which sought to even the agricultural playing field for the meat and animal protein industry, the USDA will now give contract chicken farmers better insight into payment rates for their birds, according to a press release. 

This is the third installment in a series of regulation reforms under the Biden-Harris administration which is intended to level the playing field, bring stability and fairness, and should provide information about capital improvements farmers must make to keep and/or renew...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Holiday Slowdown Influences January Spending 

January typically marks a slowdown in consumer spending as households transition from the holiday season to their regular routines.

Early in the month, retailers experience a short-lived boost in sales, driven by replenishment efforts after the holiday food rush. As schools reopen and guests leave, families restock essentials for breakfast, lunch, and weeknight meals.

This restocking coincides with New Year’s resolutions, especially those focused on healthier eating. Consequently, shoppers gravitate toward the perimeter of the stores where fresh items, including produce, proteins, and dairy, are featured. Although retail...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Industry Faces Record Low Harvests During a Period of Rising Demand

November’s turkey slaughter numbers set a new seasonal low, with 16.4 million head of turkeys harvested. This continues the trend observed throughout 2024, during which five of the previous ten months recorded harvest values that set new record lows for their respective months. Notably, the lowest harvest ever recorded occurred in March, with only 15.5 million turkeys processed.

The industry is undoubtedly feeling the impact of these cutbacks, particularly during a period of strong retail demand for turkey parts and raw materials... 

Bird Flu Detected in Indiana Turkey Flock Impacting More than 20,000 Birds 

The highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, has been confirmed in a commercial turkey facility in Indiana. This marks the first detection in the state since January 2024, when 13,071 turkeys were affected in a previous outbreak.

As of January 4, 2025, the Indiana State Board of Animal Health has provided an update on the current situation regarding avian influenza in the state, available on their website here.

The latest outbreak was reported in a commercial turkey flock in Jay County... 

ANALYSIS: November Turkey Cold Storage Indicative of Demand Patterns

In comparison to market pricing, November’s cold storage report may seem contradictory in a couple of instances. However, upon closer inspection, it’s actually very indicative of the state of the market.

The total month-over-month (MoM) change was slightly less dramatic than the 5-year average, with a 34.1% decrease from this past October to November. This is compared to a 5-year average decrease of 46.4%. This was primarily driven by fewer whole birds and breasts exiting the freezer this November, as these two categories made up..

Poultry Farmers Must Pass Biosecurity Audit to Qualify for Indemnity Payments Under New USDA Rule

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced an interim final rule that updates the conditions for poultry facilities to receive indemnity and compensation after testing positive for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). 

APHIS said that it will now require farmers to undergo a biosecurity audit before restocking their poultry following an HPAI detection and before receiving any indemnity payments. The decision was based on evidence that strong biosecurity measures remain the most effective strategy for combating HPAI...

ANALYSIS: Market Dynamics and Supply Constraints Drive Record High Turkey Neck Prices

Current frozen tom turkey neck quotations have exceeded the previous all-time high of $1.07 that was seen in late August of 2022...

Potential Impact of a Government Shutdown on USDA Reports

With a potential government shutdown looming, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data on livestock and meat markets, along with numerous other reports and statistics, may become unavailable until further notice.

As Congress races to reach an agreement before the midnight deadline to avoid a shutdown, industry stakeholders are increasingly aware of the importance of maintaining access to unbiased market intelligence to operate effectively. 

In the event of a shutdown, USDA food inspectors and federal animal care workers will remain on duty, but most other federal employees will not be at work...

ANALYSIS: October U.S. Turkey Exports Below Average Amid Lower Production and Higher Prices

The total month-over-month (MoM) change in the volume of turkey exported for October was up 7.6% compared to a 5-year average increase of 15.9%. The top four U.S. turkey export destinations, Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, and Canada, all had lower export volumes this October compared to the 5-year average, while the Bahamas, the fifth largest buyer, purchased more than on average.

Likely, much of the lower-than-average volumes of turkey exported can be attributed to more limited...

The Retail Rundown: Robust Retail Spending This Holiday Season

Retail spending has been robust this year, with recent data released by the U.S. Census Bureau indicating strong retail sales as the holiday season kicked off in November.

According to the Census Bureau, overall retail sales in November rose 0.7 percent month-over-month (MOM) and increased 3.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) In comparison, October saw gains of 0.5 percent MOM and 2.9 percent YOY.

“Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending," said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz...

Pre-Chill, Post-Chill Turkey Sampling as a Predictor of Salmonella Enterica Contamination 

USPOULTRY and the USPOULTRY Foundation announce the completion of a funded research project by researchers at Kansas State University that aimed to evaluate the connection between indicator microorganisms and Salmonella at re-hang and post-chill stages. The research was made possible in part by an endowing Foundation gift from Cargill. The research is part of the Association’s comprehensive research program encompassing all phases of poultry and egg production and processing. A summary of the completed project is below...

ANALYSIS: Impact of HPAI and Metapneumovirus on Livability in the Turkey Industry

Issues with HPAI and metapneumovirus in the past couple of years have significantly impacted livability in the turkey industry. The current outbreak of HPAI began on February 8, 2022, when a commercial turkey flock in Indiana was confirmed to have contracted the virus. Since then, losses of commercial birds have been reported in thirty-four states and approximately 15.8 million commercial turkey breeders and meat birds have been affected. Losses due to HPAI are highest in the spring and fall through areas of active wild bird migratory traffic...

The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Trends for Ribs vs. Hams

With Christmas just two weeks away, this week’s retail rundown takes a closer look at two traditional holiday centerpieces: rib roasts and hams. These festive favorites have followed differing paths in the wholesale markets this year, potentially influencing their retail performance in the lead-up to the year-end celebrations.

The wholesale rib market began its seasonal ascent in the third quarter, gaining traction in early August. From August 1 through December 10, prices surged by 42 percent, far surpassing the 5-year average increase of 17 percent for the same period...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Decline Continues with 27.8% Drop in October Amid Tightening Supplies

Total turkey cold storage fell -27.8% month-over-month (MoM), continuing the downward momentum in the volume of turkey in warehouses. While following an average trendline, total frozen inventories of turkey have gradually moved from the thirteenth lowest value ever recorded for the month of January to the third lowest in October. In fact, market input suggests that some storage facilities are holding well below 50% of capacity. While this is likely not the case for all facilities since October’s total is...

The Retail Rundown: Diving into December Deals

With the year-end holidays soon approaching, shoppers are eagerly diving into December deals. Retailers aim to capitalize on the season's spending surge with enticing offers on everything from festive foods to decadent desserts, decor, and other holiday items. 

Consumer spending on winter holidays is projected to hit a record-breaking $902 per person this year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This figure marks a $25 increase from 2023 and surpasses the previous record set in 2019 by $16...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Features in Full Display

In the final stretch to Thanksgiving, turkey ads dominate protein advertisements this week with 29 percent, up from 11.8 percent the week prior and surpassing pork's 26.4 percent. Seafood ads come in at 20.2 percent, followed by beef at 16.4 percent. Chicken takes 6 percent, while eggs still have less than one percent of retail buying opportunities.

Fresh whole turkeys account for half of all turkey promotions, with frozen turkeys making up 40.5 percent. While turkeys take center stage, the holiday season also lifts demand for cold-weather comfort foods and convenient...

ANALYSIS: Shifting Retail Turkey Trends, Disease-Related Adjustments

So far this year we’re seeing a major decline in the number of fresh whole turkeys bought from retailers in Q4. Interestingly, this decreased call doesn’t look like it has much to do with the current price of turkey at retail. Additionally, price and distribution changes vary between the different size categories of turkeys, proving that not all turkey is created equal.

The changes to retail price and distribution of the larger turkeys (16-24 lbs. and >24 lbs.) are fairly straightforward. From the start of Q4...

Each Thanksgiving Dinner Requires a National Effort

As friends and family sit down for a Thanksgiving dinner, very few are aware that the feast on their table is a culmination of efforts of farmers from every corner of the United States. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed the production of the ingredients that go into a classic Thanksgiving dinner, detailing which states produce the most commodities and the production value of those items. The Market Intel provides context to AFBF’s annual Thanksgiving dinner cost survey, which found the average cost of this year’s classic...