The Retail Rundown: Retail Posts Late-Year Gains, but Food Inflation Heats Up

Early 2026 opens with a mixed picture for the food and broader retail sectors.

Retail sales closed out 2025 with solid momentum, as CNBC/NRF data showed holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 rising 4.1% from the year prior. Food and beverage stores also ended the year strong, posting a 0.33% month-over-month gain on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 2.85% increase from a year earlier.

That strength now faces challenges as the industry moves into its usual post-holiday slowdown, amplified by...

FMI Statement on December CPI Food Price Numbers

Today [January 13, 2026], FMI – The Food Industry Association commented on the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which show a 0.7% rise in food-at-home prices for December and a 2.4% increase over the last 12 months. FMI Vice President of Tax, Trade, Sustainability and Policy Development Andy Harig offered the following statement.  

“Today’s CPI numbers reflect the ongoing challenge of bringing food inflation under control. Overall inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and food prices also disappointingly reflected...

Kroger Reveals Food Trend Predictions of 2026

The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) today announced its top six food trends for 2026, predicting customer behaviors and anticipated popular products for the new year.

Developed by Kroger's industry-leading team of food experts, the trend predictions offer a complete forecast of what customers will be craving in 2026.

"The way our customers eat will be more dynamic than ever this year as they look to elevate everyday meals, snacks and treats with bold flavors, functional ingredients and culinary creativity, delivering a premium experience for less," said Ann Reed, Group Vice President, Our Brands for Kroger. "Whether it's a protein and fiber...

UNFI Identifies Key Trends Shaping Fresh Departments for Retailers in 2026

While shoppers are spending more deliberately, the fresh departments are still earning their attention. Categories including produce, floral, bakery, deli, specialty cheese, meat, and seafood are outperforming the rest of the store, with fresh product sales up 3.7% year over year*.

That performance reflects shifting shopper expectations: better taste, stronger nutrition, added convenience, and more transparency from the products they buy.

For retailers, success in fresh now depends on understanding these drivers and partnering with experts who can translate trends into execution on the sales floor.

Ron Selders, UNFI’s President...

Top 10 Headlines on Expana in 2025—and What Could Shape the Next Year in Food and Ag

2025 was a big year for news in the food and agriculture industry. Headlines ranging from livestock diseases and sweeping policy changes to rising geopolitical tensions, shifting tariffs, weather events, and evolving consumer trends influenced commercial strategies, supply chains, and global market dynamics... 

USDA Confirms Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in a Dairy Herd in Wisconsin

Today, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed via PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and ELISA (Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay) assay a detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 clade 2.3.4.4b in a dairy cattle herd in Wisconsin. APHIS will complete genetic sequencing and announce final results as soon as they are available. This confirmation was a result of routine National Milk Testing Strategy testing, not pre-movement surveillance.

This marks the first known case of HPAI... 

Major EU Project to Investigate the Rise of Commercial Cattle Farming

A major project has received significant European Union (EU) funding to investigate how commercial cattle farming first emerged in Europe, setting in motion economic, social and environmental shifts that shaped the continent from the medieval period to the modern era.

Led by University College Cork (UCC) researcher Dr Eugene Costello, the groundbreaking project aims to uncover the pre-industrial roots of commercial cattle farming, an industry that reshaped Europe’s landscapes and evolved into a major force in the global food economy...

Farm Bureau: Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines

Cooking a Thanksgiving dinner for your friends and family will cost less than last year, marking the third straight year of price declines. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey provides a snapshot of the average cost of Thanksgiving staples that make up a classic holiday feast for 10, which is $55.18 or about $5.52 per person.

This is a 5% decrease from 2024. Three years of declines don’t fully erase dramatic increases that led to a record-high cost of $64.05 in 2022.

The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey...

ANALYSIS: US Dairy Herd Shows Continued Robust Growth

The USDA’s September data showed a pronounced expansion in the US dairy herd in the 24 selected states; an increase of 235,000 cows year-over-year was reported. This marked acceleration from recent months. That gain helped lift national herd counts well above 2024 levels for much of 2025.

Producers are driving growth by retaining higher and mid‑producing cows for additional lactation cycles and keeping back added heifers on the farm. Those retention choices reflect the push for many operations to produce more milk to...

Secretary Rollins Announces Plan for American Ranchers and Consumers

Today, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler announced a suite of actions to strengthen the American beef industry, reinforcing and prioritizing the American rancher’s critical role in the national security of the United States. Since 2017, the United States has lost over 17% of family farms, more than 100,000 operations over the last decade. The national herd is at a 75-year low while consumer...

M.C.I. Foods, Inc. Recalls Ready-To-Eat Breakfast Burrito and Wrap Products Due to Possible Listeria

M.C.I. Foods Inc., a Santa Fe Springs, Calif., establishment, is recalling approximately 91,585 pounds of specific lots of ready-to-eat (RTE) breakfast burrito and wrap products containing egg that may be adulterated with Listeria monocytogenes (Lm), the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today.

The individually packaged and bulk packed frozen breakfast burritos and wraps were produced between September 17, 2025, and October 14, 2025. A list of the products subject to recall can be found here...

StoneX and Expana to Launch OTC Dairy Derivatives

StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”), a subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. (“StoneX”; NASDAQ: SNEX), has announced a collaboration with Expana to launch a new suite of OTC dairy derivatives referencing Expana’s IOSCO-assured EU dairy benchmarks. The partnership expands the range of risk management tools available to the global dairy industry and enhances price transparency.

The first contracts will cover fat-filled milk powder and high-protein whey, with plans to broaden coverage to additional dairy products over time. StoneX Plus users will gain direct access to Expana’s benchmarks

Climax Foods Announces Rebrand to Bettani Farms; $6.5 Mln in New Funding

Climax Foods, a food technology company leading breakthrough innovation in the global cheese market, today announced it has rebranded to Bettani Farms and appointed former CFO of Califia Farms, Sandeep Patel, to serve as CEO and Chairman. Additionally, the company announced a $6.5 million initial closing of its Series A, led by S2G Investments ("S2G"), a multi-stage investment firm focused on scaling solutions across food and agriculture, energy, and oceans, with additional participation from new and existing investors that include

USDA Refines SNAP Requirements

As of today, the US Department of Agriculture plans to refine the requirements around government subsidized food stamps or Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), according to a USDA press release which cited the Trump administration's goal to "turn the tide" on chronic disease in America.

"Currently, SNAP retailers are required to stock three varieties of food in each of four staple food categories – dairy, protein, grain, and fruits and vegetables – 12 foods total," read the release which proposes doubling the number of food choices, closing loopholes allowing snack foods, and simplifying the standards for retailers...

Jason Henshaw Named Vice President and General Manager of Perdue Specialty Meats

Perdue Specialty Meats and Emerging Brands today announced the appointment of Jason Henshaw as Vice President and General Manager of Perdue Specialty Meats, which includes the premium and natural protein brands Niman Ranch and Coleman All Natural Meats, as well as the Perdue Premium Meat Company operations.

Henshaw brings more than two decades of leadership experience in consumer-packaged goods (CPG), agriculture, food, and supply chain management. His career spans entrepreneurial ventures, large-scale transformation programs, and executive management roles, with a proven track record in finance management, new product development, and building resilient, high-performing organizations...

Dino Nuggets On the Go? Tyson Drops New Chicken Cups

On September 22, Tyson Foods dropped chicken nuggets in a brand-new form: Chicken Cups, as detailed in a company press release. These new nugs are available in grocery freezers throughout the USA.

"Tyson Foods’ Innovation team developed this new cup format after recognizing the consumer need for more convenient ways to eat chicken. Ideal for busy lifestyles, the cups are stored frozen and can be enjoyed straight from the microwave in 90 seconds to 2 minutes," read the release...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #23

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #23."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

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This week, tariff news took a bit of a backseat to US President Trump’s dealings with Russian President Putin in Alaska—along with President Trump’s meeting with many European leaders...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #22

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #22."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

...

The timeline for tariff negotiations between the US and China trade teams has been extended for another 90 days—moving the deadline to November 10, according to a White House fact sheet...