Urner Barry Releases September Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated the outlook for 2022/23 wheat for September is increased supplies, domestic use, exports, and reduced stocks. The outlook is relatively unchanged from August. The season-average farm price is currently estimated at $9.00/bu, a $0.25 decrease from last month. Despite the decline, the current value remains a record season-average farm price.

Globally, the 2022/23 wheat outlook calls for higher supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month. Supplies were increased by 3.6 million tons to...

Urner Barry Releases August Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated the outlook for 2022/23 wheat for August is increased supplies, domestic use, exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies were raised on higher production, with the all wheat forecast at 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from July. Also, the all wheat yield is projected at 47.5 bushels per acre, a slight increase from last month. The season-average farm price is currently estimated at $9.25/bu, surpassing the 2012/13 record of $7.77/bu.

Globally, the 2022/23 wheat outlook calls for higher supplies, greater consumption, and increased trade. Supplies were increased by...

Three More Ships Carrying Ukrainian Grain Depart Port of Chornomorsk

On Friday, three additional ships carrying Ukrainian grain left the port of Chornomorsk, which is located on the north-western shore of the Black Sea.  

The first shipment of Ukrainian grain since Russia's invasion began in February departed Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa on Monday under the agreement reached by Ukraine and Russia in late July. The ship arrived in Istanbul’s waters Tuesday evening and underwent a joint civilian inspection, said the Joint Coordination Centre...

CME Grain Futures Decline After First Ship Carrying Ukrainian Grain Departs Odesa Port

For the first time in months, a commercial ship carrying Ukrainian grain left the Black Sea port of Odesa early Monday local time.

Ukrainian exports from the Black Sea region have been blocked by Russian forces since the invasion began in February.

On July 22 Ukraine and Russia signed a deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, to resume Ukrainian grain exports in an effort to ensure the global food supply. The agreement also frees up Russian grain and fertilizer...

Grain Export Deal in Question Following Russian Missile Strike on Odesa Port 

On Friday, Ukraine and Russia signed a deal in Istanbul to allow the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea Ports.

Access to Ukraine's maritime ports had been blocked by Russian forces since the military invasion began in February.

The agreement was brokered by Turkey and the United Nations and is scheduled to be implemented in the next few weeks. Under the deal, up to 5 million metric tonnes of grain per month will be exported by shipping companies through safe passageways in Ukrainian waters. 

Millions of tons of grain exports have been stalled in Ukraine due to the war, pushing global food prices higher...

Urner Barry Releases July Soy & Wheat Report

Projected 2022/23 global wheat trade is expected to total 205.4 million metric tons, an increase of 0.2 million from a month ago. While India's exports are reduced due to their trade restrictions, they are more than offset with increases for Argentina, Russia, and Uzbekistan. Argentina has continued to export large volumes in 2021/22 as they have remained competitive and are anticipated to continue to be able to compete in the global market into the 2022/23 trade year.

According to the agriculture ministry, Ukraine's grain exports plunged 68.5% year-over-year to 165,000 tons in early July. Also, grain exports for the 2021/22 season ended June 30 rose...

CME Grain Futures React to Potential Russia, Ukraine Deal on Grain Exports

Grain futures have been losing ground in the latest three weeks and counting, offering some reprieve for livestock producers who have been contending with high feed costs.

Since June 17th, the December corn futures contract shaved off over $1.50 per bushel, while the most actively traded soybean contract declined by over $2.00 per bushel during the same time period.

The grain complex was under pressure again on Tuesday as traders eyed a potential deal between Ukraine and Russia to resume grain exports through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports...

Urner Barry Releases June Soy & Wheat Report

According to the Ukraine Grain Association, grain silos in Ukraine are about half full leading up to this year's harvest, which means crops could be left in the ground if Russia continues blocking ports. Without access to its Black Sea ports, Ukraine would be able to export 20 million tons of grains next year at best. These exports would likely be more sunflower seeds than corn and wheat. Currently, Ukraine is attempting to ship its crop via...

Urner Barry Releases May Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2022/23 wheat this May is reduced supplies, lower exports, and higher prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3%, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production is estimated at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from a year ago. Also, all wheat yield is projected at 46.6 bushels per acre, a slight increase from last year. The USDA's first survey-based forecast for 2022/23 winter wheat production is down 8% from last year, with abandonment for Winter Wheat at the highest level since 2002. However, Spring Wheat production is expected to rebound significantly from last year's drought-reduced Hard Red Spring and Durum crops primarily on return-to-trend yields.

Globally, the 2022/23 wheat outlook is for lower supplies, increased trade, and reduced ending stocks. Production is forecast at 774.8 million tons, 4.5 million lower than a year prior. Reduced production in Ukraine, Australia, and Morocco was partially...

Ukraine Formally Closes Four Seaports Under Russian Control 

In a statement released on May 2, Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry said the country has closed the four seaports of Berdyansk, Mariupol, Skadovsk, and Kherson "until Ukraine regains control” over them.

The ministry explained that the closures have been caused by the “inability to service ships and passengers, cargo, transport, and other related economic activities so as to ensure an adequate level of shipping safety and compliance with international treaties”.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, Russian forces had captured or blockaded some ports, forcing all Ukrakina seaports to indefinitely halt their activities. 

Ukraine is a major exporter of agricultural commodities including grains and vegetable oils. Prior to the conflict, most of Ukraine’s exports were shipped via sea but have since been rerouted to export by train or by its Danube river ports.

On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine could lose tens of millions of tons of grain due to the Russian-controlled Black Sea shipping lanes...

Urner Barry Releases April Soy & Wheat Report

Besides drought, this past winter season featured notable extremes. In December, multiple severe weather conditions resulted in more than 200 tornadoes. December also ended with wildfires spreading near Boulder, Colorado, after a derecho swept from the east-central Plains into the upper Midwest. A month later, blizzard conditions along the northern Atlantic coast caused the coldest air movement in 4 years across Florida's peninsula.

For 2022, area for all wheat is estimated at 47.4 million acres, a slight increase from 2021. This would represent the fifth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. At 34.2 million acres, 2022 winter wheat planted area is up 2% from last year but down less than...

Chicago Grain Traders Await USDA's WASDE, Crop Production Reports

Chicago grain futures closed mixed on Thursday. May corn rounded out yesterday's session 1 ½ cents higher at $7.57 ¾ a bushel while May soybeans were up 26 cents to $16.45 ½ cents a bushel.

Front-month Chicago wheat slipped by 18 ¼ cents to $10.20 a bushel, pressured in part by moisture in areas of the southern wheat-producing states.

According to the USDA weather desk, recent rain from northeastern Texas eastward has eased short-term drought, although drought remains entrenched over the southern and western portions of the region.

The USDA indicates that about 46% of the nation's spring wheat production is currently located within an area experiencing drought. 

Grain prices remain largely supported by Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which has spurred concerns about global supplies amid stalled Ukrainian exports of key agricultural commodities including wheat, corn, and sunflower oil...

Fertilizer Prices Spike to Record High Amid Ongoing Russia-Ukraine War

According to Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index, fertilizer prices last week surged to a record high at 1,248.09. The previous record high was set in 2008 at 932.27, which was influenced by a variety of factors including strong domestic and global demand coupled with low fertilizer inventories. 

Numerous Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine have raised widespread concerns for farmers globally, who must navigate sharply higher input costs in addition to ongoing supply chain issues. 

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Russia was the world's largest fertilizer exporter in 2019, having exported $8.85 billion in fertilizer trade volume that year. In 2019, Brazil was the world’s top importer of fertilizer, followed by India and the United States...

Urner Barry Releases March Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this March is lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks were raised by 5 million bushels to 653 million, but 23% lower than a year ago. The season-average farm price was raised $0.20 to $7.50/bu based on NASS prices and expectations for prices in the remainder of the marketing year. Despite the sharp increases in futures and cash prices recently, a significant majority of U.S. wheat has already been marketed this year, limiting the season-average farm price increase.

Globally, the 2021/22 wheat outlook is for higher production, decreased trade, lower consumption, and larger ending stocks. The 2021/22 global use forecast was lowered by...

Ukrainian City Kherson Falls Under Russian Control

The Russian invasion of Ukraine entered its eighth day today. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces took control of the southern port of Kherson on Wednesday, a key harbor on the Black Sea. Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coast is in danger of being captured by Russia, potentially sequestering Ukraine from worldwide trade.

Both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grains including wheat and corn. Disruptions to shipments out of the Black Sea region can fan the flames on food inflation and aggravate concerns about the cost of living for consumers across the world. 

In an update provided by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense earlier this morning, it was reported that Russian forces were still attempting to reach the northern outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital city. The Ministry of Defense added that Russian attacks were continuing in other cities including Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Okhtyrka. Talks between delegations from Ukraine and Russia were scheduled to resume at 3 p.m. Moscow time on Thursday...

President Biden Addresses Russia-Ukraine War in State of the Union Speech

President Joe Biden delivered his first State of the Union address Tuesday evening and highlighted several pressing topics including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing pandemic, and the nation’s economy.

In his speech, President Biden stated “[w]e are inflicting pain on Russia and supporting the people of Ukraine. Putin is now isolated from the world more than ever,” adding “[t]ogether with our allies–we are right now enforcing powerful economic sanctions.”

Global sanctions have been imposed against Russia in an attempt to castigate Russian President Vladimir Putin for his aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions are taking aim at Russia’s stocks and currency, along with the country's transportation and energy sectors. President Biden explained “we are cutting off Russia’s largest banks from the international financial system”, and “choking off Russia’s access to technology that will sap its economic strength and weaken its military for years to come.” 

In yesterday’s address, Biden confirmed that the United States will join other countries including the EU and Canada in prohibiting Russian planes from its airspace...

Urner Barry Releases February Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this February is stable supplies, lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Food use was lowered by 3 million bushels to 959 million with durum accounting for the entire reduction. Seed use was revised down 2 million bushels to 64 million based on NASS seed use data for the first two quarters of the marketing year. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks were raised by...

Urner Barry Releases January Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this January is smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Seed use was unchanged at 66 million bushels, reflecting the latest estimated seed use for winter wheat plantings in the fall of 2021 reported by NASS. Projected ending stocks were raised by 30 million bushels to 628 million, down 26% from last year and the lowest level since 2013/14. The season average farm price was raised $0.10/bu to $7.15/bu based on NASS prices and expectations for prices in the remainder of the marketing year.

Globally, the 2021/22 wheat outlook is for stable supplies, decreased consumption, reduced exports, and increased stocks. Production increases in Argentina and...

Urner Barry Releases December Soy & Wheat Report

As supplies remain tight, weather will play a key role in recovery. Participants are closely monitoring Australia as it is facing record rainfall. This could impact crop quality, putting more pressure on the system. Approximately 45% of vital wheat gluten is imported into the United States from Australia and New Zealand, so these weather events could influence planting decisions in the United States.

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this December is slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and...

Urner Barry Releases November Soy & Wheat Report

This month, the U.S. soybean outlook for 2021/22 is for lower production and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million on lower yields. Lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas account for most of the change in production. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.10/bu, a decrease of $0.25.

According to the USDA's Crop Progress report, soybean harvest is just about on par with the five-year average rate at 87% completion. Minnesota reported that...

WASDE Report Shows Larger Corn Production, Slightly Smaller Stocks

In the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA outlook for U.S. corn calls for larger production, increased ethanol use, and marginally lower ending stocks. Production is forecast at 15.062 billion bushels, up 43 million from last month’s projection on a record high yield.

Exports are raised for Argentina and the EU but lowered for Bangladesh. For 2020/21, corn exports for Argentina are raised but reduced for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2021.

The projected season-average corn price was unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.

CBOT corn futures reacted to the bullish news, gaining approximately 9 to 10 cents per bushel as of writing.

Soybean production was pegged at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million due to lower yields. Prices for soybeans were down 25 cents at $12.10 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $325.00 per short ton and 65.0 cents per pound, respectively.

Urner Barry Releases October Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this October is reduced supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks were reduced by 35 million bushels to 580 million, which are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price was raised $0.10/bu to $6.70/bu on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.

Soybean supplies for 2021/22 were projected at 4.7 billion bushels, up 145 million on higher production and beginning stocks. With higher crush and unchanged exports, 2021/22 ending stocks were projected...