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Urner Barry Releases March Soy & Wheat Report
The 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged from February. The projected season-average farm price remains at $9.00 per bushel. The January 2023 farm price reported in the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Agricultural Prices publication was $8.82 per bushel, down from $8.98 in...
Urner Barry Releases March Pulse Protein Report
As of March 8, Ethiopia remains in the top spot of the dried pea export value chart, with a 47% decrease in value year-over-year (YoY) noted. Cameroon holds the fifth spot, with a 31% increase in value. Canada is holding the number one spot for dried lentils with a 6% decrease and...
Urner Barry Releases February Soy & Wheat Report
The potential for a smaller than anticipated Argentine soybean crop supports the U.S. soybean meal export program during the second part of the marketing year (MY), June 1-May 31. In the U.S., average soybean meal prices in Decatur, IL have risen by over $45.00 per ton in the past few months. As a result, the 2022/23 U.S. soybean meal price forecast is lifted to $450.00 per ton.
Urner Barry Releases February Pulse Protein Report
As of February 8, Ethiopia remains in the top spot of the dried pea export value chart, with a 94% increase in value year-over-year (YoY) noted. China still holds the fourth spot, with a 11% drop in value YoY. Canada is holding the number one spot for dried lentils with a 3% decrease and Sudan now holds the number two position with a sharp rise in value. Canada is holding the top spot for dried chickpea exports, with a 40% increase in value YoY. ...
Urner Barry Releases January Soy & Wheat Report
In the latest WASDE report, the USDA reported the 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook in January is for increased supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher beginning stocks as reported in the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is increased 30 million bushels to 80 million bushels based on higher second-quarter implied disappearance based on the Grain Stocks report. The season-average farm price is ...
Urner Barry Releases January Pulse Protein Report
As of January 11, Ethiopia remains in the top spot of the dried pea export value chart. China still holds the fourth spot, with a 76% decrease in value year-over-year (YoY) noted. Canada is holding the number one spot for lentils with a 9% increase and Mexico is in the number two position with a 9% rise. Pakistan continues to hold the top spot for dried chickpea exports, with a 77% decline in value YoY.
The 2022/2023 (runs from September 2022–August 2023) dry bean marketing year is underway; with...
Urner Barry Releases December Soy & Wheat Report
In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated the wheat outlook for 2022/23 is unchanged from November. There are offsetting changes for exports by-class with Hard Red Spring and White higher and Soft Red Winter lower.
In 2022/23, U.S. farmers are estimated to have produced a total of 1.65 billion bushels of winter, spring, and durum wheat from a harvested area of 35.5 million acres...
Urner Barry Releases December Pulse Protein Report
As of December 14, Ethiopia remains in the top spot of the dried pea export value chart. China still holds the fourth spot, with an 81% decrease in value year-over-year (YoY) noted. Spain is holding the third-place spot for lentils with a 13% increase and Peru still holds the fifth position. Pakistan continues to hold the top spot for dried chickpea exports this December, with an 79% decline in value YoY.
U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2023 are projected at $190.0 billion, down...
Urner Barry Releases November Soy & Wheat Report
In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated the outlook for 2022/23 wheat for November is stable supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Total domestic use is projected to be 5 million bushels higher at 1,093 million bushels as an increase in food use more than offsets a decrease in seed use.
Globally, the 2022/23 wheat outlook calls for increased supplies, consumption, trade and ending stocks this month. Supplies are projected up 1.3 million tons to...
Urner Barry Releases November Pulse Protein Report
As of October 12, Ethiopia remains in the top spot of the dried pea export value chart. China still holds the fourth spot, with an 86% decrease in value year-over-year (YOY) noted. Peru is maintaining the fifth-place spot for lentils, keeping India out of the top five countries in the export value chart. Pakistan continues to hold the top spot for dried chickpea exports this October, with an 84% decline in value YOY.
According to the Commerce Department, U.S. farm exports rose to a record $196.4 billion in fiscal year (FY)...
Urner Barry Releases October Soy & Wheat Report
In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated the outlook for 2022/23 wheat for October is lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks. This is due to reductions in both harvested area and yield, which lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million bushels, only minimally higher than last year. The season-average farm price is estimated at $9.20/bushel (bu), a $0.20 increase from last month.
Globally, the 2022/23 wheat outlook calls for reduced supplies, consumption, trade and ending stocks this month. Supplies were decreased by 1.9 million tons to...
Urner Barry Releases October Pulse Protein Report
As of October 12, Ethiopia remains in the top spot of the dried pea export value chart. China still holds the fourth spot, with an 88% decrease in value year-over-year (YOY) noted. Peru is maintaining the fifth-place spot for lentils, keeping India out of the top five countries in the export value chart. Pakistan continues to hold the top spot for dried chickpea exports this October, with an 83% decline in value YOY.
The USDA reported this past summer that the Saudi government lifted all COVID-19 restrictions allowing...
Urner Barry Releases September Soy & Wheat Report
In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated the outlook for 2022/23 wheat for September is increased supplies, domestic use, exports, and reduced stocks. The outlook is relatively unchanged from August. The season-average farm price is currently estimated at $9.00/bu, a $0.25 decrease from last month. Despite the decline, the current value remains a record season-average farm price.
Globally, the 2022/23 wheat outlook calls for higher supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month. Supplies were increased by 3.6 million tons to...
Urner Barry Releases September Pulse Protein Report
As of September 13, Ethiopia remains in the top spot of the dried pea export value chart. China still holds the fourth spot, and an 89% decrease in value year-over-year was noted. Peru is maintaining the fifth-place spot for lentils, keeping India out of the top five countries in the export value chart. Pakistan continues to hold the top spot for dried chickpea exports this September, with an 84% decline in value year-over-year.
For the current marketing year, dry bean exports are at a record low...
Urner Barry Releases August Emerging Plant Protein Report
According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this August is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. All rice production for the 2022/23 crop was increased by 1.5 million cwt to 176.0 million. The season-average farm price was raised $0.60 to a record...
Urner Barry Releases August Pulse Protein Report
As of August 8, Ethiopia remains in the top spot of the dried pea export value chart. China still holds the fourth spot, and a 90% decrease in value year-over-year was noted. Meanwhile, Canada is in the first spot for lentils again, however with a 19% decrease in value. Peru is maintaining the fifth-place spot for lentils, keeping India out of the top five countries in the export value chart. Pakistan continues to hold the top spot for dried chickpea exports this August, with an 84% decline in value year-over-year.
The U.S. exports to over 70 countries and has been a net exporter of dry peas and lentils for at least three decades. However, the 2021/22 marketing year is anticipated to be...
Urner Barry Releases July Emerging Plant Protein Report
The USDA projects rice exports to total 79.0 million cwt, a 5% decrease year-over-year, and the lowest level since 1996/97. However, the U.S. rough-rice export forecast is up almost 10% from a year earlier. Currently, the United States is facing increasing competition from South American rough rice exporters in key Latin American markets that is preventing any long-term increase in these shipments. U.S. milled rice exports are forecast at 45.0 million cwt, 14% below a year prior. These are the lowest milled-rice exports since...
Urner Barry Releases July Soy & Wheat Report
Projected 2022/23 global wheat trade is expected to total 205.4 million metric tons, an increase of 0.2 million from a month ago. While India's exports are reduced due to their trade restrictions, they are more than offset with increases for Argentina, Russia, and Uzbekistan. Argentina has continued to export large volumes in 2021/22 as they have remained competitive and are anticipated to continue to be able to compete in the global market into the 2022/23 trade year.According to the agriculture ministry, Ukraine's grain exports plunged 68.5% year-over-year to 165,000 tons in early July. Also, grain exports for the 2021/22 season ended June 30 rose...
Urner Barry Releases July Pulse Protein Report
Dry pea supplies in 2021/22 are tight with production down 60% year-over-year. The USDA reported that dry pea stocks were down by about 50% in December from the previous year, the lowest levels since 2012. Lentil supplies are also lower than the year prior, with production down 55%.
According to the National Weather Service, a massive heat wave is engulfing much of the Midwest and into the Southern tier of the United States. Excessive heat warnings were in effect last week, with...
Urner Barry Releases June Emerging Plant Protein Report
According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this June is for higher beginning and ending stocks. No other changes to the 2022/23 balance sheet were noted for this month. The season average farm price for all rice remains unchanged at $17.80/cwt, up $1.90 year-over-year.
The USDA also noted that despite a slow start to plantings this year in the South because of rain, progress of the 2022/23 crop was reported...
Urner Barry Releases June Soy & Wheat Report
According to the Ukraine Grain Association, grain silos in Ukraine are about half full leading up to this year's harvest, which means crops could be left in the ground if Russia continues blocking ports. Without access to its Black Sea ports, Ukraine would be able to export 20 million tons of grains next year at best. These exports would likely be more sunflower seeds than corn and wheat. Currently, Ukraine is attempting to ship its crop via...
Urner Barry Releases June Pulse Protein Report
Dry bean exports during the current marketing year were at a record low for the first 6 months of the September-February timeframe. Exports are currently averaging 44% below the previous year at 278 million pounds. Historically, the 2021/22 volume is 36% below the 32-year average. Also, the six-month export volume in 2004/05 was the only marketing year that was lower than the current one over the past 32 years.
Although slightly improved from the pandemic-related conditions of 2020, international trade markets remain hindered by port congestion, internal shipping delays, container availability, and trade route challenges stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, pea producers in some Russian regions face losing...
Rich Nelson from Allendale, Inc Weighs in on the Grain Situation
Nearby CBOT corn futures slid to a six-week floor on Tuesday following USDA’s latest Crop Progress report, which indicated that corn plantings were up to 72% complete. The latest figure was below the 5-year average but an impressive catch-up over the past few weeks.
Despite the progress, the 72% of corn planted as of Sunday, May 22, represented the second slowest pace for that week in over 25 years. On Wednesday, corn futures closed mostly lower but recovered some of their earlier declines. The old crop July contract managed to hold onto a ½ cent gain and ended at $7.72 ¼ a bushel.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has impacted the old-crop outlook due to stalled grain supplies from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. The trade disruptions have restricted the global supply of grain and energy, exerting additional upward pressure on prices...
Urner Barry Releases May Emerging Plant Protein Report
As of May 23, Canada still holds the top value spot on the sunflower seeds export value chart but a decrease of 44% in value year-over-year was noted. Canada also holds the top value spot for sunflower oil, with an increase of 79% in value compared to a year ago. For rice, Mexico has gained 33% in value year-over-year, remaining in the top spot on the chart this month.
The USDA projects rice exports to total 82.0 million cwt, a decrease of 3.0 million from a year prior. Meanwhile, rice from the U.S. is becoming uncompetitive as prices rise. Imports are expected to total...
Urner Barry Releases May Soy & Wheat Report
In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2022/23 wheat this May is reduced supplies, lower exports, and higher prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3%, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production is estimated at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from a year ago. Also, all wheat yield is projected at 46.6 bushels per acre, a slight increase from last year. The USDA's first survey-based forecast for 2022/23 winter wheat production is down 8% from last year, with abandonment for Winter Wheat at the highest level since 2002. However, Spring Wheat production is expected to rebound significantly from last year's drought-reduced Hard Red Spring and Durum crops primarily on return-to-trend yields.
Globally, the 2022/23 wheat outlook is for lower supplies, increased trade, and reduced ending stocks. Production is forecast at 774.8 million tons, 4.5 million lower than a year prior. Reduced production in Ukraine, Australia, and Morocco was partially...
Urner Barry Releases May Pulse Protein Report
For pulses like dry edible beans, prospective area declines are anticipated to continue in 2022. Spring weather is an important factor and is posing threats again this year with dry conditions across several dry bean growing regions. April 2022 marked the seventh month of the 2021/22 dry bean marketing year which began in September 2021 and will end in August. Although planting decisions have been made, a variety of factors can influence the final crop mix well into the spring and early summer.
In addition to dry spring weather, key economic factors affecting reduced dry bean area include surging input costs for items like fuel and fertilizer, and elevated prices for...
Urner Barry Releases April Emerging Plant Protein Report
As of April 26, Canada holds the top value spot on the sunflower seeds export value chart with a decrease of 47% in value year-over-year. Canada also holds the top value spot for sunflower oil, with an increase of 120% in value compared to a year ago. For rice, Mexico has gained 39% in value year-over-year, remaining in the top spot on the chart this month.
In April, the USDA reported that rice exports remain projected at 86.0 million cwt, more than 8% below a year ago and the smallest since 2000/01. World trade was estimated 1.1 million tons higher at 52.5 million on greater exports by...
Concerns Mount Over Global Cooking Oil Supply As Russia-Ukraine War Continues
Soybean futures rallied during overnight trading as traders assessed the tight global supply of cooking oils spurred by the ripple effects of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for about 80% of the world’s sunflower oil exports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced buyers to find alternatives to sunflower oil shipments, which have largely been stalled in Black Sea ports.
Port closures and shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region have elevated the prices of competing vegetable oils like palm oil—a common ingredient used in food, cosmetics, and cooking.
Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of palm oil, announced last week that it will ban shipments of the product beginning April 28 in an effort to curb rising domestic prices...
Urner Barry Releases April Soy & Wheat Report
Besides drought, this past winter season featured notable extremes. In December, multiple severe weather conditions resulted in more than 200 tornadoes. December also ended with wildfires spreading near Boulder, Colorado, after a derecho swept from the east-central Plains into the upper Midwest. A month later, blizzard conditions along the northern Atlantic coast caused the coldest air movement in 4 years across Florida's peninsula.
For 2022, area for all wheat is estimated at 47.4 million acres, a slight increase from 2021. This would represent the fifth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. At 34.2 million acres, 2022 winter wheat planted area is up 2% from last year but down less than...
CBOT Corn Prices Climb to a Nearly Decade High
CBOT corn futures roared to a nearly decade-high earlier this week as traders assessed ongoing supply concerns and global disruptions precipitated by the Russia-Ukraine war.
On Monday, July corn futures eclipsed $8 per bushel, the highest level since September 2012. July corn was trading at around $6 per bushel towards the beginning of 2022.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated upward price pressure for corn, along with many other agricultural commodities. Ukraine is a major exporter of items including wheat and barley. Russia’s largest exports include oil and...
Urner Barry Releases April Pulse Protein Report
The USDA released its Prospective Plantings report on March 31, noting that hopes for drought relief fizzled during the first couple months of 2022. With the generally dry start to the new year, there was little overall change in the western drought depiction. Also, drought coverage across the south continued to climb, reaching 59.2% in March. By March 1, national drought coverage had been greater than 40% for 75 consecutive weeks, a 21st century record.Besides drought, this past winter season featured notable extremes. In December, multiple severe weather conditions resulted in more than 200 tornadoes. December also ended with...
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