Urner Barry Releases January Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this January is smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Seed use was unchanged at 66 million bushels, reflecting the latest estimated seed use for winter wheat plantings in the fall of 2021 reported by NASS. Projected ending stocks were raised by 30 million bushels to 628 million, down 26% from last year and the lowest level since 2013/14. The season average farm price was raised $0.10/bu to $7.15/bu based on NASS prices and expectations for prices in the remainder of the marketing year.

Globally, the 2021/22 wheat outlook is for stable supplies, decreased consumption, reduced exports, and increased stocks. Production increases in Argentina and...

Urner Barry Releases January Pulse Protein Report

As of January 11, China remains at the top of the dried pea export value chart. However, a 46% decrease in value year-over-year was noted. Meanwhile, India still holds the fifth-place spot for lentils with a 90% year-over-year decline in value. Pakistan is in the first spot for dried chickpea exports as we enter 2022, with a 13% decrease in value year-over-year.

The USDA reported that the U.S. is a net exporter of dry beans with most of the country's dry bean exports sent to Mexico and Canada. Pinto bean exports in the 2020/21 marketing year grew by...

Urner Barry Releases December Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this December is for reduced supplies with unchanged domestic use, slightly lower exports, and fractionally lower ending stocks compared with November. The season-average farm price forecast for all rice is unchanged this month at $14.80/cwt, as an increase to the long grain rice forecast offset a decrease in the medium and short grain price.

The supply and use revisions have resulted in a 2021/22 ending stocks forecast of 34.5 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from last month and 21% less than...

Urner Barry Releases December Soy & Wheat Report

As supplies remain tight, weather will play a key role in recovery. Participants are closely monitoring Australia as it is facing record rainfall. This could impact crop quality, putting more pressure on the system. Approximately 45% of vital wheat gluten is imported into the United States from Australia and New Zealand, so these weather events could influence planting decisions in the United States.

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this December is slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and...

Urner Barry Releases December Pulse Protein Report

According to the USDA's Vegetable and Pulse Outlook, dry bean production in the September 2020 through August 2021 marketing year is down by 31% from a year prior as nearly every dry bean producing state reported production declines. The most significant production declines were within North Dakota, Michigan, and Minnesota. Dry pea, lentil, and chickpea yields were down for the 2020/21 marketing year due to drought. Dry pea yield is down 41%, lentil yield is down 47%, large chickpea yield is down 48%, and small chickpea yield is down 57% from 2020.

Also, planted area for dry edible beans declined by 20% from 2020 with planted area levels like the 2017 crop. Pinto, black, and dark red kidneys are each down 19%, and navy beans are down...

Beef + Lamb New Zealand and Silver Fern Farms Collaboration Increases Sales in U.S. Market

Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) and Silver Fern Farms are celebrating another year of successful joint marketing efforts in the United States. The partnership, which included a series of seasonal marketing campaigns, outdoor advertisements and creative brand programs, resulted in significant sales growth and increased awareness.

UK Lamb Could be Shipped to the U.S. in the New Year

Lamb exporters in the UK will have access to the American market – worth an estimated $48.9 million (£37 million) in the first five years of trade – as we head into 2022.

After extensive risk evaluations, US authorities have today removed the small ruminant rule, which was introduced more than 20 years ago banning imports of lamb from countries where scrapie had been identified.

Work has been ongoing to finalise this important piece of legislation in the US, effectively allowing UK processors to be eligible to ship...

Urner Barry Releases November Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this November is for increased supplies with higher domestic use, lower exports, and larger ending stocks. Supplies were raised on increased rice production by 3.3 million cwt to 193.8 million cwt. The all-rice yield is projected at a record 7,765 pounds per acre, up 131 pounds from the previous estimate. Record yields are forecast for Arkansas, California, Mississippi, and Missouri.

Harvested area remains estimated at 2.5 million acres, more than 16% below a year ago. All reported states except Texas are estimated to have harvested area below a year earlier. Texas has seen a slight increase of 5% year-over-year. In the Delta, harvested area in Arkansas remains reported at...

Urner Barry Releases November Soy & Wheat Report

This month, the U.S. soybean outlook for 2021/22 is for lower production and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million on lower yields. Lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas account for most of the change in production. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.10/bu, a decrease of $0.25.

According to the USDA's Crop Progress report, soybean harvest is just about on par with the five-year average rate at 87% completion. Minnesota reported that...

Urner Barry Releases November Pulse Protein Report

On November 2, the USDA reported an average $42.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $52.00/cwt at the end of October. U.S. whole green peas averaged $25.83/cwt as of end-October, a slight increase of $0.83/cwt as of end-September. Prices for yellow peas remain steady at $30.00/cwt.

Government efforts to curb energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions, along with surging coal prices, are leading to outages across many of China's manufacturing hubs. Over the past week, local officials have forced factories in China to curtail operating hours or...

Urner Barry Releases October Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this October is for reduced supplies with lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies were reduced on lower projected imports that more than offset minimally higher production. NASS increased the average all rice yield by 2 pounds per acre, to 7,625 pounds. Total domestic and residual use was decreased by 1.0 million cwt to 146.0 million on lower supplies, and ending stocks were reduced to 33.2 million cwt, down 1.0 million. The season-average farm price for all rice remains unchanged at $14.80/cwt.

Persistent rainfall across the southern United States this spring delayed rice planting and field operations, which has led to slightly slower than average harvest pace to date. For the week ending October 3...

Urner Barry Releases October Soy & Wheat Report

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA stated that the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this October is reduced supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks were reduced by 35 million bushels to 580 million, which are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price was raised $0.10/bu to $6.70/bu on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.

Soybean supplies for 2021/22 were projected at 4.7 billion bushels, up 145 million on higher production and beginning stocks. With higher crush and unchanged exports, 2021/22 ending stocks were projected...

Urner Barry Releases October Pulse Protein Report

On October 5, the USDA reported an average $51.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $40.00/cwt at the end of September. U.S. whole green peas averaged $25.00/cwt as of end-September, a slight increase of $0.84/cwt as of end-August. Prices for North American yellow peas saw an increase of $4.17/cwt last month, totaling $28.33/cwt.

After making landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in Louisiana at the end of August before weakening to a tropical storm, Hurricane Ida caused significant damage to oil and gas processing facilities, grain facilities and ports. After a two-week closure, Cargill restarted its Westwego, Louisiana, grain export terminal and unloaded its first grain barge. Also, power was restored to Cargill's heavily damaged terminal in...

Urner Barry Releases September Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this September is for reduced supplies along with lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies were mostly reduced on smaller production, as NASS lowered 2021/22 rice production by 6.9 million cwt to 190.5 million on decreased harvest area offsetting higher yield. The all rice yield is 7,623 pounds per acre, up 79 pounds from the previous forecast, and the third highest on record. Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks were reduced by 3.1 million cwt to 34.2 million, down 22% from a year ago. The all rice season average farm price for 2021/22 has increased $0.10/cwt to $14.50/cwt.

Persistent rainfall across the southern United States this spring delayed rice planting and field operations, which has led to slightly slower than average harvest pace to date. For the week ending September 5, 28% of the U.S. 2021/22 rice crop was reported harvested, 3% above...

Urner Barry Releases September Soy & Wheat Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this September is for reduced supplies and slightly higher domestic use with decreased imports. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks were reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27% below last year, the lowest in eight years. Also, the projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10/bu to $6.60/bu on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of the crop season.

Globally, wheat supplies are projected to increase by 7.1 million tons for a total of 1,072.8 million. This increase is due to a combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, the European Union, and India, with higher production for...

ANALYSIS: July Turkey Exports: Less Is More

As our day-to-day market canvassing efforts have suggested, July’s turkey export figures were a mixed bag with some countries increasing...

Urner Barry Releases September Pulse Protein Report

On September 7, the USDA reported an average $40.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $36.00/cwt at the end of July. U.S. whole green peas averaged $23.00/cwt as of mid-August, an increase of $3.00/cwt as of end-July. Prices for North American yellow peas saw a slight decrease in the last month, totaling $24.16/cwt.

Hurricane Ida made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Port Fourchon, Louisiana on August 29, before weakening to a tropical storm. Energy companies began evaluation of facilities hit by the storm last week, as widespread power outages and...

Record Value for July Beef Exports; Pork Value also Strong

U.S. beef exports set another new value record in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). July export value climbed 45% from a year ago to $939.1 million, while volume was the third largest of the post-BSE era at 122,743 metric tons (mt), up 14% year-over-year.

For January through July, beef exports increased 18% from a year ago to 822,830 mt, with value up 30% to $5.58 billion. Compared to the pace established in 2018, the record year for...

Traders Assess Suspension of Brazilian Beef Exports to China Due to BSE

Over the weekend, the agriculture ministry reported that Brazil has suspended beef exports to China after confirming two cases of “atypical” bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in two domestic meat plants. BSE, also referred to as mad cow disease, is a fatal neurodegenerative disease of cattle that is transmitted through contaminated feed. The two cases recently confirmed in Brazil were “atypical” since the disease appeared “spontaneously and sporadically, unrelated to the ingestion of contaminated food”, according to the agriculture ministry. 

It is not yet certain when Brazilian beef exports to China will resume. The ministry stated there was no risk to animal or human health.

BSE was first diagnosed in 1986 in the United Kingdom and has since been detected in other countries. The first known case of BSE in the United States occurred in 2003 and resulted in the loss of most of the United States’ beef exports in 2004. 

Brazil was the world's largest beef exporter in 2020. The indefinite suspension of Brazilian beef exports to China could be supportive of U.S. beef exports if the ban is not resolved quickly...

ANALYSIS: The Impact of Labor Issues on Hams

Ever since the first COVID-19 shutdowns, labor-related conversion issues have plagued the US ham market. As more and more bone-in hams couldn’t be...

Beef Quarterly Q3 2021: Déjà Vu Argentina

In May this year, the Argentine government imposed a 30-day suspension on beef exports. After those 30 days, new limitations were placed on the volume and type of beef that could be exported. In our feature article, we look at what impact this will have on the Argentine beef industry and the global market.

Covid-19

Global confirmed case numbers began rising again in mid-June, after falling from a peak in late April. Numbers in Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean region, Africa, and the Western Pacific region have seen large rises. Food retail figures remain strong, and foodservice sales were still...

U.S. Poultry and Egg Exports Surged in First Half, on Pace for Record Year

The Covid-19 pandemic, an uncertain economy, and logistics problems like port closings and shipping bottlenecks haven’t slowed the tremendous demand for U.S. poultry and eggs around the world.

Exports of U.S. broiler chicken and shell eggs set records in the first half of 2021 and are on pace to break all-time marks for the year, according to the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council (USAPEEC), citing government trade data.

Total broiler export volume reached an all-time high for the January through June period, with Mexico, China, Cuba, and Philippines leading the way. Cuba, and Philippines set records for both...

ANALYSIS: July Pork in Cold Storage Breakdown

July’s USDA Cold Storage report, released on August 23^rd, showed that while progress was made in restocking the freezers for a couple of categories of cuts, there are still...

Urner Barry Releases August Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this August is for reduced supplies along with lower domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. All rice production was reduced by 2.0 million cwt to 197.4 million, all on lower yields. The all rice yield is 7,544 pounds per acre and is down 76 pounds from the previous forecast. Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks were reduced by 4.0 million cwt to 37.3 million, down 15% from a year ago. The all rice season average farm price for 2021/22 has increased $0.10 per cwt to $14.50.

According to the USDA's Rice Outlook for August, persistent rainfall across the South continues to delay crop progress, field operations, and harvest in much of the region. For the week ending August 8, 74% of the U.S. 2021/22 rice crop was reported...

Urner Barry Releases August Soy & Wheat Report 

Within North America, the bulk of soybean production occurs in the plains regions of the Midwest. The top soy producing states are Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota, respectively. Kansas overwhelmingly leads nationally in all wheat production, followed by North Dakota and Montana.

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this August is for reduced supplies and lower domestic use with unchanged exports and...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Exports: It’s A Matter of Perspective

With June’s export figures hot off the press, players are turning to the charts as they reflect on the conclusion of Q2...

ANALYSIS: June Turkey Exports Run the Gamut

Although four of our largest trade partners continue to display encouraging year-over-year (YoY) advancements in both volume and value, the most recent monthly data through the end of June was a little more mixed...

U.S. Beef and Pork Exports on Record Pace through June

U.S. red meat exports closed the first half of the year on a strong note, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Although volume and value eased from the enormous totals posted in April and May, export value was still the highest on record for the month of June and first-half shipments established a record pace for both beef and pork exports.

“USMEF had expected a continued strong performance in June for both beef and pork exports, despite significant headwinds,” said...

Retail Cargo Expected to Set Record in August as Merchants Move from Back-to-School to Holiday Prep

Imports at the nation’s largest retail container ports should hit yet another record in August as consumer demand continues to stretch supply chains and retailers shift from the back-to-school season to the peak shipping season for winter holiday merchandise, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Back-to-school supplies have been hit by the same supply chain disruptions and port congestion that have affected"...

Study Shows How Corn and Soybean Producers Benefit from U.S. Red Meat Exports

U.S. beef and pork exports brought critical returns to the corn and soybean industries in 2020, according to an independent study conducted by World Perspectives, Inc. and released by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). According to the study, U.S. beef and pork exports added 41 cents per bushel to the value of corn and $1.06 per bushel to soybeans in 2020.

“As the study indicates, my farm gains from red meat exports in the price of every acre of crops that we grow,” says...

Urner Barry Releases August Pulse Protein Report

On August 2, the USDA reported an average $35.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $34.00/cwt at the end of June. U.S. whole green peas averaged $15.00/cwt as of mid-July, an increase of $0.80/cwt as of end-June. Prices for North American yellow peas have continued to rise, with the USDA reporting an increase of $2.30/cwt from mid-July, totaling $18.10/cwt.

Also, the Food and Agriculture Organization reported that the FAO Food Price Index averaged 124.6 points in June, down 3.2 points from May, but still 33.9% higher than...

ANALYSIS: Cash Hog Prices Decline from Summer Peak But Remain Well Above Year Ago Levels

The summer peak for negotiated cash hog prices on a national basis was achieved on June 22 at $128.04/cwt. Since peaking, spot prices have since declined by around...

Pork Quarterly Q3 2021: Looking for Growth Amid Uncertainties

Great volatility in Chinese hog and pork prices is rippling through the global market. China’s slaughter rates were unexpectedly high in Q2, pushing pork production up 35.9% YOY in 1H, according to official data. The sudden supply increase resulted in a sharp price decline and negative results in both farming and trading in 1H, pointing to low pork imports into China in Q3. While we expect hog and pork prices to rebound in Q3, the estimated high frozen pork inventory will impose a lot of downward pressure on prices. We expect the slowdown of imports in the coming months will reduce full year imports from 2020’s record levels by 10% to 20%. This will lead to a redistribution of pork trade in the global market and could place downward pressure on pork prices in exporting regions.

Urner Barry Releases July Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this July is for slightly larger supplies along with lower domestic use, higher exports, and larger ending stocks. All rice production was reduced 2% to 199.3 million cwt. NASS reported that the severe drought in California reduced medium and short grain area. The all rice yield was also lowered based on...

Urner Barry Releases July Soy & Wheat Protein Report

Average all-wheat prices increased $0.42/bu from April while average soybean prices increased as well by $0.90/bu. July front month futures decreased from May’s rates. CBOT wheat front month futures reached $6.28/bu in July, a decrease of $0.39 from June. Also, CBOT soybeans totaled...

Retail Cargo Continues to See Double-Digit Increases Over 2020 as Supply Chain Disruptions Continue

Imports at the nation’s largest retail container ports are continuing to show double-digit growth over last year as strong consumer demand keeps up its momentum, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“The year-over-year growth we saw this spring was off the charts because the comparisons were against a time when most stores were shut down due to the pandemic,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “But we’re continuing to see strong growth even as we enter a point when stores had begun to reopen last year. That’s a sign of the...

Urner Barry Releases July Pulse Protein Report

On July 1, the USDA reported an average $33.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $30.00/cwt at the end of May. This represents a month-over-month decrease of $3.00/cwt. U.S. whole green peas averaged $13.33/cwt as of late June, an increase of $2.83/cwt as of end-May. Prices for North American yellow peas have started to increase, with the USDA reporting an increase of $2.50/cwt from early June, totaling $17.50/cwt.

While the pandemic has had a negative impact on the foodservice industry and there were...

ANALYSIS: May’s Turkey Trade Volume Underscores Global Economic Revival

By just about every measure, the latest turkey export figures bring with them signs of encouragement for turkey marketers, as well as...

Broad-Based Growth Drives U.S. Beef and Pork Exports to New Heights

Fueled by impressive growth in a wide range of destinations, U.S. beef and pork export value shattered previous records in May, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports also reached a new volume high in May, while pork export volume was the third largest on record.

“The outstanding May performance is especially gratifying when you consider where red meat exports stood a year ago,” noted USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The industry faced unprecedented, COVID-related obstacles at all levels of the supply chain, and...

Poultry Quarterly Q3 2021: Improving Local Industry Performance, Shifting Trade Flows

The outlook for the global poultry industry continues to improve. This is mainly driven by the reopening of economies as vaccination levels accelerate in developed countries and increase in emerging markets. This will help the recovery of global, regional, and especially foodservice demand, which, on average, makes up one-third of global poultry demand. As supply usually responds slowly to such increases, significant price inflation in 2H 2021 is possible, especially as feed prices remain high and avian influenza has disrupted...

United States and Taiwan Hold Dialogue on Trade and Investment Priorities

The United States and Taiwan held the eleventh Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) Council meeting yesterday under the auspices of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO). Assistant United States Trade Representative Terry McCartin and Jen-ni Yang, Deputy Trade Representative from Taiwan’s Office of Trade Negotiations, co-led the discussions, which were held virtually and focused on enhancing the longstanding trade and investment relationship between the United States and Taiwan. Other U.S. participants and contributors included AIT and the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Health and Human Services, Labor, State and Treasury.

The TIFA establishes TIFA Council meetings as the key mechanism for trade and investment dialogue between the U.S. and Taiwan authorities, and covers a broad range of issues...

Urner Barry Releases June Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this June is for smaller supplies along with unchanged domestic use and exports, and reduced ending stocks. The 2021/22 U.S. rice crop remains projected at 203.6 million cwt, down about 11% from a year ago, but well above...