Urner Barry Releases September Soy & Wheat Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this September is for reduced supplies and slightly higher domestic use with decreased imports. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks were reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27% below last year, the lowest in eight years. Also, the projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10/bu to $6.60/bu on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of the crop season.

Globally, wheat supplies are projected to increase by 7.1 million tons for a total of 1,072.8 million. This increase is due to a combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, the European Union, and India, with higher production for...

ANALYSIS: July Turkey Exports: Less Is More

As our day-to-day market canvassing efforts have suggested, July’s turkey export figures were a mixed bag with some countries increasing...

Urner Barry Releases September Pulse Protein Report

On September 7, the USDA reported an average $40.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $36.00/cwt at the end of July. U.S. whole green peas averaged $23.00/cwt as of mid-August, an increase of $3.00/cwt as of end-July. Prices for North American yellow peas saw a slight decrease in the last month, totaling $24.16/cwt.

Hurricane Ida made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Port Fourchon, Louisiana on August 29, before weakening to a tropical storm. Energy companies began evaluation of facilities hit by the storm last week, as widespread power outages and...

Record Value for July Beef Exports; Pork Value also Strong

U.S. beef exports set another new value record in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). July export value climbed 45% from a year ago to $939.1 million, while volume was the third largest of the post-BSE era at 122,743 metric tons (mt), up 14% year-over-year.

For January through July, beef exports increased 18% from a year ago to 822,830 mt, with value up 30% to $5.58 billion. Compared to the pace established in 2018, the record year for...

Traders Assess Suspension of Brazilian Beef Exports to China Due to BSE

Over the weekend, the agriculture ministry reported that Brazil has suspended beef exports to China after confirming two cases of “atypical” bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in two domestic meat plants. BSE, also referred to as mad cow disease, is a fatal neurodegenerative disease of cattle that is transmitted through contaminated feed. The two cases recently confirmed in Brazil were “atypical” since the disease appeared “spontaneously and sporadically, unrelated to the ingestion of contaminated food”, according to the agriculture ministry. 

It is not yet certain when Brazilian beef exports to China will resume. The ministry stated there was no risk to animal or human health.

BSE was first diagnosed in 1986 in the United Kingdom and has since been detected in other countries. The first known case of BSE in the United States occurred in 2003 and resulted in the loss of most of the United States’ beef exports in 2004. 

Brazil was the world's largest beef exporter in 2020. The indefinite suspension of Brazilian beef exports to China could be supportive of U.S. beef exports if the ban is not resolved quickly...

ANALYSIS: The Impact of Labor Issues on Hams

Ever since the first COVID-19 shutdowns, labor-related conversion issues have plagued the US ham market. As more and more bone-in hams couldn’t be...

Beef Quarterly Q3 2021: Déjà Vu Argentina

In May this year, the Argentine government imposed a 30-day suspension on beef exports. After those 30 days, new limitations were placed on the volume and type of beef that could be exported. In our feature article, we look at what impact this will have on the Argentine beef industry and the global market.

Covid-19

Global confirmed case numbers began rising again in mid-June, after falling from a peak in late April. Numbers in Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean region, Africa, and the Western Pacific region have seen large rises. Food retail figures remain strong, and foodservice sales were still...

U.S. Poultry and Egg Exports Surged in First Half, on Pace for Record Year

The Covid-19 pandemic, an uncertain economy, and logistics problems like port closings and shipping bottlenecks haven’t slowed the tremendous demand for U.S. poultry and eggs around the world.

Exports of U.S. broiler chicken and shell eggs set records in the first half of 2021 and are on pace to break all-time marks for the year, according to the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council (USAPEEC), citing government trade data.

Total broiler export volume reached an all-time high for the January through June period, with Mexico, China, Cuba, and Philippines leading the way. Cuba, and Philippines set records for both...

ANALYSIS: July Pork in Cold Storage Breakdown

July’s USDA Cold Storage report, released on August 23^rd, showed that while progress was made in restocking the freezers for a couple of categories of cuts, there are still...

Urner Barry Releases August Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this August is for reduced supplies along with lower domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. All rice production was reduced by 2.0 million cwt to 197.4 million, all on lower yields. The all rice yield is 7,544 pounds per acre and is down 76 pounds from the previous forecast. Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks were reduced by 4.0 million cwt to 37.3 million, down 15% from a year ago. The all rice season average farm price for 2021/22 has increased $0.10 per cwt to $14.50.

According to the USDA's Rice Outlook for August, persistent rainfall across the South continues to delay crop progress, field operations, and harvest in much of the region. For the week ending August 8, 74% of the U.S. 2021/22 rice crop was reported...

Urner Barry Releases August Soy & Wheat Report 

Within North America, the bulk of soybean production occurs in the plains regions of the Midwest. The top soy producing states are Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota, respectively. Kansas overwhelmingly leads nationally in all wheat production, followed by North Dakota and Montana.

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this August is for reduced supplies and lower domestic use with unchanged exports and...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Exports: It’s A Matter of Perspective

With June’s export figures hot off the press, players are turning to the charts as they reflect on the conclusion of Q2...

ANALYSIS: June Turkey Exports Run the Gamut

Although four of our largest trade partners continue to display encouraging year-over-year (YoY) advancements in both volume and value, the most recent monthly data through the end of June was a little more mixed...

U.S. Beef and Pork Exports on Record Pace through June

U.S. red meat exports closed the first half of the year on a strong note, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Although volume and value eased from the enormous totals posted in April and May, export value was still the highest on record for the month of June and first-half shipments established a record pace for both beef and pork exports.

“USMEF had expected a continued strong performance in June for both beef and pork exports, despite significant headwinds,” said...

Retail Cargo Expected to Set Record in August as Merchants Move from Back-to-School to Holiday Prep

Imports at the nation’s largest retail container ports should hit yet another record in August as consumer demand continues to stretch supply chains and retailers shift from the back-to-school season to the peak shipping season for winter holiday merchandise, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Back-to-school supplies have been hit by the same supply chain disruptions and port congestion that have affected"...

Study Shows How Corn and Soybean Producers Benefit from U.S. Red Meat Exports

U.S. beef and pork exports brought critical returns to the corn and soybean industries in 2020, according to an independent study conducted by World Perspectives, Inc. and released by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). According to the study, U.S. beef and pork exports added 41 cents per bushel to the value of corn and $1.06 per bushel to soybeans in 2020.

“As the study indicates, my farm gains from red meat exports in the price of every acre of crops that we grow,” says...

Urner Barry Releases August Pulse Protein Report

On August 2, the USDA reported an average $35.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $34.00/cwt at the end of June. U.S. whole green peas averaged $15.00/cwt as of mid-July, an increase of $0.80/cwt as of end-June. Prices for North American yellow peas have continued to rise, with the USDA reporting an increase of $2.30/cwt from mid-July, totaling $18.10/cwt.

Also, the Food and Agriculture Organization reported that the FAO Food Price Index averaged 124.6 points in June, down 3.2 points from May, but still 33.9% higher than...

ANALYSIS: Cash Hog Prices Decline from Summer Peak But Remain Well Above Year Ago Levels

The summer peak for negotiated cash hog prices on a national basis was achieved on June 22 at $128.04/cwt. Since peaking, spot prices have since declined by around...

Pork Quarterly Q3 2021: Looking for Growth Amid Uncertainties

Great volatility in Chinese hog and pork prices is rippling through the global market. China’s slaughter rates were unexpectedly high in Q2, pushing pork production up 35.9% YOY in 1H, according to official data. The sudden supply increase resulted in a sharp price decline and negative results in both farming and trading in 1H, pointing to low pork imports into China in Q3. While we expect hog and pork prices to rebound in Q3, the estimated high frozen pork inventory will impose a lot of downward pressure on prices. We expect the slowdown of imports in the coming months will reduce full year imports from 2020’s record levels by 10% to 20%. This will lead to a redistribution of pork trade in the global market and could place downward pressure on pork prices in exporting regions.

Urner Barry Releases July Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this July is for slightly larger supplies along with lower domestic use, higher exports, and larger ending stocks. All rice production was reduced 2% to 199.3 million cwt. NASS reported that the severe drought in California reduced medium and short grain area. The all rice yield was also lowered based on...

Urner Barry Releases July Soy & Wheat Protein Report

Average all-wheat prices increased $0.42/bu from April while average soybean prices increased as well by $0.90/bu. July front month futures decreased from May’s rates. CBOT wheat front month futures reached $6.28/bu in July, a decrease of $0.39 from June. Also, CBOT soybeans totaled...

Retail Cargo Continues to See Double-Digit Increases Over 2020 as Supply Chain Disruptions Continue

Imports at the nation’s largest retail container ports are continuing to show double-digit growth over last year as strong consumer demand keeps up its momentum, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“The year-over-year growth we saw this spring was off the charts because the comparisons were against a time when most stores were shut down due to the pandemic,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “But we’re continuing to see strong growth even as we enter a point when stores had begun to reopen last year. That’s a sign of the...

Urner Barry Releases July Pulse Protein Report

On July 1, the USDA reported an average $33.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $30.00/cwt at the end of May. This represents a month-over-month decrease of $3.00/cwt. U.S. whole green peas averaged $13.33/cwt as of late June, an increase of $2.83/cwt as of end-May. Prices for North American yellow peas have started to increase, with the USDA reporting an increase of $2.50/cwt from early June, totaling $17.50/cwt.

While the pandemic has had a negative impact on the foodservice industry and there were...

ANALYSIS: May’s Turkey Trade Volume Underscores Global Economic Revival

By just about every measure, the latest turkey export figures bring with them signs of encouragement for turkey marketers, as well as...

Broad-Based Growth Drives U.S. Beef and Pork Exports to New Heights

Fueled by impressive growth in a wide range of destinations, U.S. beef and pork export value shattered previous records in May, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports also reached a new volume high in May, while pork export volume was the third largest on record.

“The outstanding May performance is especially gratifying when you consider where red meat exports stood a year ago,” noted USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The industry faced unprecedented, COVID-related obstacles at all levels of the supply chain, and...

Poultry Quarterly Q3 2021: Improving Local Industry Performance, Shifting Trade Flows

The outlook for the global poultry industry continues to improve. This is mainly driven by the reopening of economies as vaccination levels accelerate in developed countries and increase in emerging markets. This will help the recovery of global, regional, and especially foodservice demand, which, on average, makes up one-third of global poultry demand. As supply usually responds slowly to such increases, significant price inflation in 2H 2021 is possible, especially as feed prices remain high and avian influenza has disrupted...

United States and Taiwan Hold Dialogue on Trade and Investment Priorities

The United States and Taiwan held the eleventh Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) Council meeting yesterday under the auspices of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO). Assistant United States Trade Representative Terry McCartin and Jen-ni Yang, Deputy Trade Representative from Taiwan’s Office of Trade Negotiations, co-led the discussions, which were held virtually and focused on enhancing the longstanding trade and investment relationship between the United States and Taiwan. Other U.S. participants and contributors included AIT and the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Health and Human Services, Labor, State and Treasury.

The TIFA establishes TIFA Council meetings as the key mechanism for trade and investment dialogue between the U.S. and Taiwan authorities, and covers a broad range of issues...

Urner Barry Releases June Emerging Plant Protein Report

According to the latest USDA WASDE, the outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this June is for smaller supplies along with unchanged domestic use and exports, and reduced ending stocks. The 2021/22 U.S. rice crop remains projected at 203.6 million cwt, down about 11% from a year ago, but well above...

NAMI and NPPC Urge the USDA and Congress to Address Port Challenges

With delays and congestion at U.S. ports hurting U.S. agriculture exports like meat and poultry products, the North American Meat Institute (NAMI) and the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) are urging U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack and Congress to confront the crisis.

The issue at hand is the continued behavior of ocean carriers to decline to carry U.S. agriculture commodity exports and instead return empty containers to Asian markets to fill them with more lucrative consumer goods to export back to the United States. Also, NAMI claims that ocean carriers and marine terminal operators are...

Urner Barry Releases June Soy & Wheat Protein Report

Average all-wheat prices increased $0.18/bu from March while average soybean prices increased as well by $0.70/bu. June front
month futures decreased from May’s rates. CBOT wheat front month futures reached $6.83/bu in June, a slight decrease of $0.27
from May. Also, CBOT soybeans totaled $15.47/bu in June, representing a decline of $0.25/bu from the month prior...

NRF Calls on White House to Address Port Congestion Challenges

The National Retail Federation delivered a letter to the White House asking to meet with President Biden and other top administration officials regarding the challenges retailers are facing from continued supply chain disruptions that are leading to congestion at U.S. ports.

The letter from NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay states, “The supply chain disruption issues, especially the congestion affecting our key maritime ports, are causing significant challenges for America’s retailers. The congestion issues have not only added days and weeks to our supply chains but have led to inventory shortages impacting...

Strong Momentum Continues for U.S. Beef and Pork Exports

Following a record-breaking March performance, exports of U.S. beef and pork continued to build momentum in April, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

April exports of U.S. beef set another new value record at $808.3 million, up 35% from a year ago, with export volume reaching 121,050 metric tons (mt) – up 23% year-over-year and the fifth largest on record. For beef muscle cuts, exports were the third largest ever at 94,656 mt (up 21%), valued at a record $726.7 million (up 36%). For January through April, beef exports moved 5% ahead of last year’s pace at 454,398 mt, with value up...

Urner Barry Releases June Pulse Protein Report

On June 1, the USDA reported an average $33.00/cwt for U.S. #1 garbanzo beans compared to $30.00/cwt at the end of May. This represents a month-over-month decrease of $3.00/cwt. U.S. whole green peas averaged $11.00/cwt as of early June, a slight...

Retail Cargo Continues Setting Records as Supply Chains Struggle to Keep Up with Consumer Demand

Imports at the nation’s largest retail container ports saw their busiest April on record and May could turn out to have set a new all-time record as vaccines allowed consumers to return to normal shopping patterns, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Vaccine rates are increasing, shoppers are back in stores and retail supply chains are working overtime,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “There’s no shortage of demand from consumers, but there continue to be shortages of labor, equipment and shipping capacity to...

ANALYSIS: Price Inflation Across All Urner Barry Indices

Price inflation remains top of mind for many. Supply constraints across all proteins combined with robust demand has...

Beef Quarterly Q2 2021: Record Prices, but Will They Last?

Many key beef production and consumption areas across the world are currently experiencing high or record prices for beef or cattle. We explore what is driving this and whether it will last. There are also several other issues affecting global beef markets at present.

Covid-19

The rollout of vaccines, the transition to robust economic growth, and the advance of the northern hemisphere summer see many areas experiencing lower Covid case numbers and higher economic activity. With restrictions being eased, foodservice sales are also...