AHDB - Cautious Global Pork Market Outlook for 2026

Rabobank’s latest pork report presents a cautious global pork market outlook heading into 2026. Despite easing feed costs due to record North American crop harvests and favourable planting conditions in South America, growth remains constrained by the influence of trade tensions, disease risks, and regulatory challenges. Producers are prioritising better productivity, biosecurity, and heavier carcass weights to offset limited herd expansion.

Regional Highlights

Europe (EU-27 + UK)

European pork production increased by 3.5% year-on-year (YOY) in July 2025, led by Spain (+7%) and Poland (+5%). Exports rose 3% YOY, supported by the recent US-China trade tensions. However...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s Q3 2025 Beef Production Soar to Record Highs, Cattle Kills Highest Since 1978

Australia’s Q3 2025 beef production surged to a record 759,270 metric tons (mt), as cattle slaughters hit their highest level since 1978, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Rising 5.8% from Q2, the quarterly increment of 41,379 mt was fueled by growth across all beef-producing regions, led by strong gains in Queensland, Australia’s top producer, and New South Wales...

USMEF Elects New Officers, Examines Reciprocal Trade Opportunities and USMCA Review

The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) concluded its Strategic Planning Conference Friday with election of its new officers. Chairing USMEF for the 2025-26 term is Jay Theiler, executive vice president of corporate affairs for Agri Beef Company, based in Boise, Idaho. 

Theiler recalled his early days with Agri Beef, when the company came to realize that it could not maximize the value of each head of livestock processed by selling product only in the Pacific Northwest, or even in the entire United States.

ANALYSIS: Brazil’s Oct Beef Exports Up 1.9% MOM to 320,558 MT, Setting Second Consecutive Record

The latest data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services indicated that October’s fresh beef (chilled and frozen) exports totaled 320,558 mt, surpassing September’s previous record of 314,690 mt by 1.9% and setting a new all-time high. On a year-over-year (YOY) basis, this represents an 18.6% growth from October last...

USMEF Statement on Progress in Trade Negotiations with China

The White House provided more details Nov. 1 on the measures agreed to in last week’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, including progress on agricultural trade barriers imposed by China and suspension of port service fees that raise costs for U.S. exporters. 

U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Dan Halstrom issued the following statement: 

USMEF is encouraged by the progress being made in trade negotiations with China, and we appreciate the Trump administration’s emphasis on restoring market access for U.S. agricultural exports. If China follows through on its commitment to...

Australian Beef Industry Sets Global Benchmark in Sustainability Performance

The Australian beef industry has released its 2025 Annual Update under the Australian Beef Sustainability Framework (ABSF), showcasing record-breaking environmental achievements, strengthened market access, and a clear roadmap for future sustainability leadership.
 
Since 2005, the industry has reduced net CO₂-e emissions by 70.1%, largely driven by carbon sequestration in the landscape on grazing land. 
 
Beef production reached an all-time high of 2.75 million tonnes, achieved with improved efficiency and reduced waste.
 
Solid waste to landfill in the processing sector fell by 71.6% between...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana’s Weekly Rundown #32

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This week, the US administration has continued to pressure trading partners like India to curb imports of Russian oil as to sanction the country during its war with Ukraine, cited Expana...

ANALYSIS: A 2021 Pattern Emerges for the US Choice Cutout in 2025

Since June, Expana's Choice cutout has shown decreases of 8–10% and gains of 9–13%. The last time values fluctuated this much during the same time frame was in 2021, when they declined by roughly 16% and increased by 25%. While the swings in 2021 were more volatile, the overall pattern remains similar, even when comparing data going back to January. In 2021, there was about a 55% uptick from January to June, whereas in 2025, the same period saw a 24% rise. Again, although the degree of volatility differs, the pattern is comparable.

Current sentiment around the cutout points to steadiness with slightly...

NTF Statement on the Government Shutdown

The National Turkey Federation (NTF) released the following statement on the United States government shutdown: 

“Mexico and Canada are key export markets for the U.S. turkey industry. The USMCA will help to ensure that America’s turkey growers and processors have fair access to these markets and takes important steps to stabilize the U.S.’s trade relationship with our neighbors. The agreement will result in a 29 percent increase in U.S. exports to Canada. Robust export markets are vital in growing the turkey industry. When given the chance to compete head-to-head on price and quality, U.S. turkey producers have shown their ability to respond in providing the world with wholesome, delicious turkey...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana’s Weekly Rundown #30

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #30."

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On October 7, US President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney met in the White House. The possibility a US-Canadian trade deal was a main topic of discussion...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #28

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #28."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

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On Tuesday in New York, US President Trump gave remarks to the United Nations General Assembly, via the White House live stream...

US Beef, Pork Featured at Culinary Event in Trinidad and Tobago

U.S. beef and pork took center stage during a recent trade promotional event in the Caribbean nation of Trinidad and Tobago. USMEF partnered with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and the U.S. Embassy in Port of Spain, the nation’s capital, for a meat cutting demonstration and tasting reception. Local chefs, restaurateurs and influencers enjoyed premium U.S. food and beverage products such as beef and pork, table grapes, wines, bourbons and whiskeys at the reception.

Kaylee Greiner, manager of retail and foodservice engagement for Texas Beef Council, joined USMEF Caribbean Representative Elizabeth Wunderlich and Latin America Representative Homero...

New USDA Export Plan: Red Meat and Poultry Via Rail to Mexico; Screwworm Case Contained

As of September 18, a new, collaborative plan to export US red meat and poultry to the Mexican market via rail gained support from the USDA FSIS. 

"Through this innovative partnership, inspection personnel from Mexico’s National Service of Agri-Food, Health, Safety and Quality (SENASICA) will be inspecting at participating federally inspected establishments to reinspect and clear for export eligible US meat and poultry shipments at the point of origin. This process will eliminate the need for routine border inspections by Mexican officials..."

Strong July for Pork Exports; Another Slow Month for Beef

July exports of U.S. pork were slightly below last year but accounted for a larger share of production, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Market access obstacles continued to weigh heavily on exports of U.S. beef, with the vast majority of plants still ineligible to ship to China.

Pork exports totaled 238,922 metric tons (mt), down just 1% from a year ago, while value fell 4% to $680.9 million, largely reflecting the 10% decline in pork variety meat prices due to China’s tariffs...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #27

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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US tariff revenue may be used to fund the nation’s farmers, reported Reuters about an interview between Agriculture Secretary Rollins and the Financial Times...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #26

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #26."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

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Despite 50% tariffs remaining on Brazil and India, the Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump expressed positivity that the respective trade teams would reach a deal, according to their latest social media...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #25

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #25."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

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In the States, a federal appeals court ruled that US President Trump’s use of global tariffs exceeded presidential authority, but they remain active until at least October 14, 2025...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #24

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #24."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

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On August 22, Canadian Prime Minister Carney dropped most retaliatory tariffs on US products, beginning September 1, reported Expana in an article that suggested the move may help soothe trade relations...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #23

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

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This week, tariff news took a bit of a backseat to US President Trump’s dealings with Russian President Putin in Alaska—along with President Trump’s meeting with many European leaders...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #22

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

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The timeline for tariff negotiations between the US and China trade teams has been extended for another 90 days—moving the deadline to November 10, according to a White House fact sheet...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #21 

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read: "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #21."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text.

...

On August 6, US President Trump issued an executive order that imposes a new 25% additional ad valorem tariff on imports from India into the States, effective 21 days after the White House announcement...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #17

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #17."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

This week, reciprocal tariffs were re-announced in the form of letters from the US Trump administration to trading partners who could not reach a trade deal within the previously granted 90-day pause...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #16

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #16."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #10

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #7

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

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This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #6

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #6."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #5

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #5."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...

Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #3

Expana’s global team of specialist reporters has been tracking every twist and turn in the fluid tariff situation.

Click to read "Tariff Talks 2025: Expana's Weekly Rundown #3."

This report allows the Expana community to see where key commodity markets stand as of this past week... Click the above PDF report, or keep scrolling to read in plain text...