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Rabobank Global Animal Protein Outlook 2021: Emerging From a World of Uncertainty
After a year full of uncertainties, global animal protein is expected to rise again, as it looks for opportunities.
In 2021, Rabobank anticipates production growth in most regions, with the biggest change taking place in Asia, where the impacts of African swine fever (ASF) are fading. Pork is expected to lead that growth – with a gradual recovery process, as ASF is still active. Poultry and aquaculture are also forecast to grow, followed by beef. Wild-catch seafood, however, is expected to decline.
Global animal protein trade continues to create areas of opportunity and risk, with China...
Rabobank: Pork Quarterly Q4 2020: Export Concentration a Potential Long-Term Risk
Global pork demand rebounded following Covid-19 disruption in most geographies, yet supply remains constrained in many Asian markets. This imbalance continues to support strong export demand from the rest of the world, resulting in sharply higher pork values.
Globally, processors’ ability to respond also remains constrained by labor availability, which limits packer capacity and efficiency. In Europe, new African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks add further limitations. “Hog producers face a challenging outlook, given rising feed costs, weaker economic trends, and slower export growth as China...
Soy Protein: An Introduction and Import Assessment
If you are like a growing number of shoppers across the globe, checking the ingredients label on the back of food items has become instinctual. One such ingredient, soybeans and further processed soybean powders (like flours, concentrates, and isolates), have garnered increased media attention partly associated with its use in a growing number of novel, plant-based products. Generally, goods containing soy are considered either “traditional soyfoods” which use whole soybeans in the creation of more obvious items like soy milks, tofu, and soy sauces or “formulated foods” which contain concentrated forms of soy protein in products including comminuted meats, protein bars, soups, cereals, frozen desserts, and meat analogues.
Like peas and lentils, the soybean (Glycine max) is a species of legume plant and has numerous invaluable production applications. Most widely grown in...
Rabobank's Poultry Quarterly Q4 2020: The Challenge of Balancing Volatile Markets
Moving through Q4 2020 and into 2021, the global poultry industry will operate in a volatile market context, with pressure coming from foodservice and wholesale markets. Possible new waves of Covid-19 will add to the market ups and downs, and the impact of a deep economic crisis will make markets more price-driven.
“Over the whole year, we expect a slight increase in global poultry production, mostly as a result of poultry expansion in China and Vietnam, where African swine fever has reduced pork availability, and also from expansion in the US. The rest of the world will be...
Brazil Soy Prices Near 2012 High
Soy prices in Brazil neared an eight-year high this week, after robust exports left the country with low stocks just as planting for the 2020/2021 season begins, according to data from University of Sao Paulo's Cepea research center.
Prices hit a high of 150.86 reais ($27.13) per 60-kg sack during the week, near the record of 153.40 reais set in 2012, Cepea said. Domestic soy prices had pared back gains by Friday to 146.63 reais per sack.
The data is based on prices in the region of the port city Paranaguá in Parana state and is...
Rabobank Beef Quaterly Q3 2020: New Faces Shaping Future UK Beef Imports
Once outside the European bloc, the UK is expected to become the fifth or sixth largest beef-importing country. Consumer acceptance and non-tariff barriers will play significant roles in determining which countries ultimately supply the UK beef market in the future.
Brexit trade talks between the UK and EU continue to progress. “While pure economic reasoning and geopolitics normally play strong roles in trade negotiations, we believe that, in the case of the UK, consumer acceptance and non-tariff barriers will be equally significant in determining...
Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q3: More Uncertainties Ahead
Covid-19 brings many uncertainties to the global pork market. With various disruptions to the supply chain, Rabobank has revised down pork production for 2020 in major producing countries.
“Labor shortages, operational suspensions, soft demand, and channel shifting will force industry players to increase automation, adopt digitalization, improve plant working conditions, streamline processing, and integrate along the supply chain in order to...
COVID-19 Overshadows African Swine Fever, but ASF’s Influence Prevails
African swine fever remains the dominant issue in global animal protein – as it has been since 2018. But COVID-19 further distorts the outlook, constraining production, consumption, and trade.
ASF is still the major influence on global pork markets, and it continues to impact pig herds and restrict pork production in China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and parts of eastern Europe. As Rabobank does not anticipate an effective vaccine against ASF to be commercially available in 2020, biosecurity measures remain the most effective defense.
Herd recovery is underway in China, and has been proceeding faster than expected, but a further significant drop in...
Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q2 2020: COVID-19 Crisis Disrupts Global Pork Industry
Rabobank expects continued volatility in pork prices in 2020, as disruption in local markets is balanced with product shortfalls in Asia.
“The combined effect of near-term demand destruction and processing interruptions due to labor constraints has weakened producer returns and will slow production growth. Weaker GDP growth could further pressure pork demand, compounding an already challenging operating environment,” according to Christine McCracken, Senior Animal Protein Analyst.
China: Hog price strength reflects slow herd recovery and demand recovery
Hog prices remain elevated on African swine fever (ASF) herd losses and a gradual recovery in the production sector. Producer interest in rebuilding remains...
Rabobank: Initial Impacts of Covid-19 on the Brazilian Consumer
The coronavirus pandemic has inflicted significant pain on the Brazilian consumer, with unemployment rising and incomes set to decline in the coming months. Beyond the initial shock of the lockdown period, in which supermarkets and pharmacies have done well, consumer habits are set to change and resemble some of the trends seen during the last recession in 2015-2016.
Initial Shock and Wider Impact Ahead
- A large part of the country remains in social isolation mode, with no clarity as to when and how such measures will be relaxed or lifted. São Paulo state is signalling a continuation of the quarantine period until at least April 22.
- On April 13, Santa Catarina became the first state to announce the reopening of some retailers, with...
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