Rabobank Beef Quaterly Q3 2020: New Faces Shaping Future UK Beef Imports 

Once outside the European bloc, the UK is expected to become the fifth or sixth largest beef-importing country. Consumer acceptance and non-tariff barriers will play significant roles in determining which countries ultimately supply the UK beef market in the future.

Brexit trade talks between the UK and EU continue to progress. “While pure economic reasoning and geopolitics normally play strong roles in trade negotiations, we believe that, in the case of the UK, consumer acceptance and non-tariff barriers will be equally significant in determining...

ANALYSIS: Stairs Going Up, Elevator Going Down

While 2020’s chicken market has certainly had its fair share of ups and downs recently, it has also brought with it...

U.S.-China Trade Deal Remains Intact Despite Recent Comments from Trump Administration

Recent comments from both President Trump and officials in his administration led to volatile markets on Tuesday as industries reacted to White House trade adviser Peter Navarro’s comments during a recent Fox News interview.

During the interview, Fox News host Martha MacCallum, asked Navarro, “"Do you think that the president -- he obviously really wanted to hang on to this trade deal as much as possible and he wanted them [China] to make good on the promises because there had been progress made on that trade deal," MacCallum told Navarro. "But given everything that's happened ... is that over?"

"It's over," Navarro responded...

USDA Trade Mitigation Purchases to Feed People in Need and Aid American Farmers Surpass $2B

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced that it has purchased more than $2.2 billion of meat, fruits, vegetables, specialty crops and dairy products in fiscal years 2019 and 2020 in its ongoing efforts to feed people in need and assist American farmers and ranchers suffering from damage due to unjustified trade retaliation by foreign nations.

USDA is on target to reach its fiscal year goal of about $1.4 billion of trade mitigation purchases in the next phase of fiscal year purchasing, which ends Sept. 30. The purchases were made through...

U.S. Pork Exports Reach New Heights in March; First Quarter Beef Exports Also on Record Pace

Underpinned by record production, U.S. pork exports completed a tremendous first quarter with new March records for volume and value, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports also trended higher year-over-year in March, establishing a record first quarter pace.

“March export results were very solid, especially given the COVID-19 related headwinds facing customers in many international markets at that time,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Stay-at-home orders created enormous challenges for many countries’ foodservice sectors, several key currencies slumped against the U.S. dollar and logistical obstacles surfaced in...

NRF Statement on Administration’s Tariff Deferral Announcement

The National Retail Federation today issued the following statement from President and CEO Matthew Shay on the Trump Administration’s announcement to delay the collection of import duties amid COVID-19 pandemic:

“The White House announcement that the government is providing a limited duty deferral for importers is welcome news to retailers struggling to find any good news during this extremely difficult time. We encourage the administration to broaden these deferrals for additional relief. Retailers don’t build stores, buy products and hire associates only to close their doors for weeks at a time. The challenges to the retail industry brought on by this pandemic are...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Thigh Meat and Pork Hams: Feeling the Export Pressure

Marketers of turkey thigh meat and boneless pork hams are certainly no stranger to some cross-protein competition...

USDA Announces Expanded Red Meat Access to China as Phase One Trade Deal Moves Forward

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced continued progress in the implementation of agriculture provisions in the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement.

The new actions are led by increased access for red meat and poultry into China. According to the statement, U.S. beef producers, for the first time since 2003, will have access to nearly all beef products into China.

An expansion of pork products that will be allowed into Chinese ports was also included in the...

Coronavirus Impact on Imports Expected to Be Larger and Longer than Previously Expected

The coronavirus outbreak is expected to have a longer and larger impact on imports at major U.S. retail container ports than previously believed as factory shutdowns and travel restrictions in China continue to affect production, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“There are still a lot of unknowns to fully determine the impact of the coronavirus on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “As factories in China continue to come back online, products are now flowing again. But there are still issues affecting cargo movement, including...

Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q1: China in the Front Seat for Beef Imports in 2020

We are yet again experiencing a major disruption to one of the world’s largest beef importers, China. “The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has had a major impact on foodservice and trade. With foodservice as the main channel for sales, beef is expected to feel the impact more than others. Indications from the 2003 SARS outbreak suggest that once the virus is contained, sales and trade should rebound quickly. However, the timeframe for control remains uncertain,” according to senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.

In other developments:

US trade deals

Progress was made on the USMCA, and the Japan/US trade deal was approved in December. These were closely followed by the signing of the phase-one US-China trade agreement in January. Although questions remain on...

USDA and USTR Announce Progress on Implementation of U.S.-China Phase One Agreement  

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced today that China has taken numerous actions to begin implementing its agriculture-related commitments under the landmark U.S.-China Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement on schedule. The agreement entered into force on February 14, 2020. 

These actions include:

•Signing a protocol that allows the importation of U.S. fresh chipping potatoes (U.S. Chipping Potatoes Protocol Announcement); 
•Lifting the ban on imports of U.S. poultry and poultry products, including pet food containing poultry products (Poultry and Poultry Products Announcement); 
•Lifting restrictions on imports of...

African Swine Fever Shrinks Pork Production in China, Swells Demand for Imported Pork

Although the rapid spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) across China decimated the world’s largest swine herd in 2019, it has created significant export opportunities for the U.S. pork industry. In the United States, recent industry expansion and low prices helped the industry export more pork to China, despite high retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork.

After the first cases of ASF in China were reported in August 2018, the virus spread to every province by mid-2019. Assessments by industry observers suggest that the number of ASF outbreaks and losses of swine far exceeded officially reported numbers. As mentioned earlier, China’s swine herd was decimated—both by...

Retailers Welcome Phase One Trade Deal with China but Say Remaining Tariffs Must End

The National Retail Federation welcomed the signing of a “phase one” trade agreement between the United States and China but said work remains to be done to end the trade war between the two countries.

“NRF strongly supports the administration’s efforts to address China’s unfair trading practices but we hope this is the first step toward eliminating all of the tariffs imposed over the past two years,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The trade war won’t be over until all of these tariffs are gone. We are glad to see...

What the Trade Agreement with China Means for the Meat and Poultry Industry

The Phase One economic and trade agreement signed by the United States and China on January 15, 2020, will provide U.S. exporters of beef, pork, and poultry, as well as live breeding cattle with expanded access to China’s rapidly growing market.

Market Overview: As incomes rise in China, demand for protein in diets increases as well. Chinese demand for imported beef, pork, and poultry is growing at a rapid rate, made more acute due to domestic pork supply constraints in China as a result of the ongoing outbreak of African swine fever. When China partially re-opened its market to U.S. beef and beef products in 2017, following a 13-year ban, many unscientific restrictions remained, including...

Industry Reacts to Phase One Trade Agreement with China 

President Donald Trump signed a Phase One trade agreement with China today. The agreement says that China will increase purchases of U.S. manufacturing, energy, and agricultural goods and services by at least $200 billion over two years. As part of the deal, the Trump Administration scrapped tariffs initially set to take effect in December, and agreed to cut tariffs on $120 billion in products to 7.5%. However, tariffs on another $250 billion in Chinese goods will remain in place for now. Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary, stated a second phase could include more tariff relief.

The National Cattlemen's Beef Association applauded the signing of the deal with China, saying the agreement will lay the groundwork for American-produced beef to be highly competitive in the world's most populous market. “The Phase One Agreement with China will be a game changer for the U.S. beef industry. For many years, Chinese consumers have been...

Chlorine-Washed Chicken and Hormone-Treated Beef Ban to Remain After Brexit

Chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef will not be allowed into the UK under any trade deal with the US, the Environment Secretary has told the BBC’s Countryfile program.

In an exclusive interview, Theresa Villiers told presenter Tom Heap that the current EU ban on such imports will be carried over into UK legislation following Brexit.

Ms Villiers said: “We will not be importing chlorinated-chicken. We will not be importing hormone-treated beef. Both of those are...

Retail Imports Settling Down After Year of Tariff Surges

After a year of fluctuations driven by the uncertainty of the trade war with China, volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to return to its usual seasonal patterns during the first few months of 2020, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“We’ll be more confident after we see the Phase One agreement signed, but right now 2020 looks like it should be back to what used to be normal,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We’ve been through a cycle of imports surging ahead of expected tariff increases – some of which got delayed, reduced or canceled – and falling off again afterward. That’s not good for retailers trying to manage...

USTR On Reports of Tariff Cuts in Exchange for Certain Purchases--"Utterly False"

Bob Davis and Lingling Wei at the Wall Street Journal, based on anonymous sources, have reported at least three times this week that the United States negotiators offered to cut by as much as one half the tariff rates on approximately $360 billion of Chinese imports in exchange for certain purchases.

While we do not comment on the content of negotiations, we have said publicly and on the record that this is totally false, untrue and baseless. It did not happen.

In addition and to be completely clear, we have personally, and on the record, told Mr. Davis and another Wall Street Journal reporter repeatedly that this is...

Retailers Call China Trade Announcement 'Right Direction' but Say a Final Deal is Needed

The National Retail Federation today welcomed news that the United States and China have agreed on a “phase one” trade deal.

“For the first time in months, the United States and China are moving in the right direction on tariffs, and we congratulate negotiators from both sides for the progress they have made,” NRF Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French said. “Tariffs create uncertainty and costs for American retail supply chains, and the trade war won’t be over until they are eliminated completely. We agree that we need to realign our relationship with China, but tariffs that harm...

NCBA Welcomes First Phase In U.S.-China Trade Deal

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) CEO Colin Woodall issued the following statement regarding today's announcement that the U.S. and China have agreed to a phase one trade deal:

“The announcement of a phase one deal with China is welcome news for the U.S. beef industry. While we wait to learn more about the details of the agreement, we are optimistic that this positive news will bring long lasting relief to farmers and ranchers who have been targeted with China’s retaliatory tariffs for many months.” said Woodall. “While tariffs grab most of the headlines, China’s unjustifiable...

Secretary Perdue Statement on USMCA Agreement

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue issued the following statement after United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced agreement on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA): 

“USMCA is a big win for American workers and the economy, especially for our farmers and ranchers. The agreement improves virtually every component of the old NAFTA, and the agriculture industry stands to gain significantly,” said Secretary Perdue. “President Trump and Ambassador Lighthizer are laying the foundation for a stronger farm economy through USMCA and I thank them for all their hard work and perseverance to get the agreement across the finish line. While I am very encouraged by today’s breakthrough...

Retail Imports Surged in November Ahead of December Tariffs

Volume at the nation’s major container ports bumped up significantly in November as retailers imported merchandise ahead of new tariffs set to take effect this month, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“At this point, holiday merchandise is already in the country, so the direct impact of new tariffs won’t be seen until the season is over,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Nonetheless, tariffs are bad for both consumer and business confidence, and we hope that the December tariffs will be canceled or postponed as a sign of good faith. We need a deal with China as soon as possible so we can...

Retailers Say Extending Trade War Past 2020 Elections Would Be ‘Bad Deal’ for U.S. Economy

The National Retail Federation today issued the following statement from Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French in response to President Trump’s comments that he might wait until after the 2020 elections to reach a trade agreement with China:

“We want and need to see a deal as soon as possible. The tariffs continue to hurt U.S. businesses, workers and consumers and are a substantial drag on the U.S. economy. Waiting another year to resolve the cost and uncertainty of the trade war is a bad deal not just for retailers and their customers but every segment of the economy from farmers who export their crops to...

Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q4 2019: Strong Demand to Test Supply in 2020

Beef will see a continuation of strong import demand from China in 2020, according to Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly for Q4 2019.

Report Summary

Strong demand will be the driving force in the global beef market in 2020, while beef production will experience slow growth.

“Although beef is not strictly a fungible product, demand and supply pressures will cause a redistribution of product among markets. Market participants will need to be vigilant for any...

U.S. Pork Can Reduce Overall U.S. Trade Deficit with China by Nearly Six Percent

Securing zero-tariff access to China for U.S. pork would be an economic boon for American agriculture and the country, according to the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). Based on an analysis by Iowa State University (ISU) Economist Dermot Hayes, NPPC says unrestricted access to the Chinese chilled and frozen market would reduce the overall trade deficit with China by nearly six percent and generate 184,000 new U.S. jobs in the next decade. NPPC today launched a digital campaign to spotlight the importance of opening the Chinese market to U.S. pork as trade negotiations continue.

“Were it not for China’s tariffs that are severely limiting access to American goods and other restrictions, including customs clearance delays, U.S. pork could be an economic powerhouse, creating thousands of new jobs, expanding sales and dramatically slashing our nation’s trade deficit. China’s actions would...

Rabobank: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand

Agricultural commodities were heavily impacted by trade wars, African swine fever, and erratic weather in 2019. According to the RaboResearch report "Outlook 2020: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand," many of these factors will remain key for agri commodity prices in 2020.

In 2019, agri commodity markets were impacted by several unprecedented incidents and uncommonly severe conditions. China's hog herd declined significantly, as a result of African swine fever (ASF). This drastically weakened demand for feed and, combined with the US-China trade war, resulted in a significant slowdown in the global soybean trade.

Meanwhile, record US corn- and soybean-planting delays drove corn prices from three-year lows to six-year highs within a few weeks. Then, improved...

US and China Could Sign ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Before Christmas, Pimco Predicts

A “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China could be finalized and signed before Christmas this year, according to an executive from bond investment giant Pimco.

Optimism that such an agreement could be reached between the two countries faded in recent days following reports that Washington and Beijing remained far apart on several issues. A Chinese government source told CNBC’s Eunice Yoon on Monday that China is troubled after U.S. President Donald Trump said he hasn’t agreed to roll back tariffs.

But John Studzinski, managing director and vice chairman of Pimco, said on Tuesday that he still thinks the two sides would...