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ANALYSIS: RTC Production: A Comparison Between Monthly and Weekly Data
As illustrated by our chart, monthly YTD ready-to-cook tonnage and the data derived from the weekly slaughter report have generally followed a similar rate of increase. The monthly data however, has consistently tended above the monthly RTC figures...
ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings: A Prognosticator of Wing Performance?
As preseason football season gets underway, fans are beginning to flock to their local drinking hole to watch the game and enjoy America’s favorite finger food: chicken wings. Taking a look at inventory levels and price reaction in the period leading up to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Thigh Meat and Boneless Pork Hams At a Crossroads
From an historical standpoint, marketers of turkey thigh meat and boneless pork ham are no strangers to some cross-protein rivalry...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Hog Slaughter
CHART: Industry Expectations for Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: “Smart” Poultry Houses Influential in Seasonally Heavy Bird Weights
When it comes to commodity valuation, there are numerous internal and external variables which have the capacity to influence the supply and demand sides of the equation...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Demand Drives YoY Export Advances
As evidenced by the USDA’s most recent turkey export data, June turned out to be a fruitful month for those on the sell side of the equation...
ANALYSIS: Automated Deboning Diluting Seasonal Volatility?
With the national average unemployment rate currently situated at 3.7%, it comes as no surprise that ongoing labor shortages have been a major source of frustration for chicken processors...
ANALYSIS: Adding a Spring to Turkey’s Summertime Stride
Following what many players would term as a sluggish start to this year’s seasonally anticipated turkey white meat rally, marketers are finally embracing the return of some noteworthy seasonal underpinnings...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: YTD Headcount: It’s All About Efficiency
Following last week’s analysis, which investigated the year-over-year uptrend in both headcount and average live weight, this week, we delve into the individual bird weight classifications to shed some additional light on the recent surge in weekly RTC production figures...
ANALYSIS: US Table Egg Flock Falls 14 Million Head Over Last 3 MonthsThe USDA’s Monthly Chicken and Eggs report, released Tuesday July 23rd, showed that at 327.31 million layers...
ANALYSIS: Tallying up Turkey Tonnage
Monday’s release of the latest Cold Storage Report closely aligns with the market undercurrent and trade sentiment about which Urner Barry has been reporting...
CHART: Industry Expectations For Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: Heavy Chickens and More of Them
The price depreciation that many key items within the chicken complex have exhibited this week has prompted players to search for both external and internal variables in an effort to shed some light on the recent price slump...
ANALYSIS: A Bird’s Eye View of Poult Placement Figures
Monday’s release of the USDA’s Turkey Hatch Report continues to shed light on 2019’s declining poult placement trend...
ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings and Whole Wings: An Inverse Relationship
Counter to what historic seasonality suggests, the jumbo whole wing market has proven to be fairly steadfast following the “finger food”-oriented buying outreach of Q1...
ANALYSIS: An Updraft in May’s Turkey Exports
By the looks of the USDA’s most recent data, May proved to be a lively month for those involved in turkey exports...
REPORTER: Beef Demand Remains Strong in the Face of Growing Supplies
REPORTER: Pork: Turbulence Driven by African Swine Fever
REPORTER: Sheepish Sales, Even In The Veal Market
This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
Monthly lamb boxed cut prices in the first quarter of 2019 were mixed compared to the prior year. As of the second week in April, year-to-date lamb and mutton production numbers are roughly 4.8% lower. So far this year, USDA lamb imports have outpaced the equivalent month for last year. Demand for lamb is expected to be steady to slightly stronger as we progress through 2019.
REPORTER: Supplies: It's a Matter of Balance
Reporter: How the U.S. Hog Industry has Changed
REPORTER: Internal Growth and Export Opportunities in the Mexican Beef Market
REPORTER: Planting Season Gets Off to a Slow Start
REPORTER: Big Cattle Numbers Seen in 2019
REPORTER: US Egg Prices Tracking Back Toward 2016 Lows
It seems there is never a dull year in the egg market. From diseases that rock the supply chain, promotions that excite consumers, changes in dietary guidelines, shifts in production standards, and countless other issues, markets are constantly being impacted by unexpected issues, both domesticallyand abroad.Over the last five years, the egg market has seen record highs and lows around the 2015 Avian Influenza Outbreak. Had it not been for these extremes, Urner Barry’s benchmark prices would have just broken all-time highs and lows in the last year alone. “Retail Wars” and international issues led to a record first quarter in 2018 and yet, a year later, egg prices struggled through the Easter marketing period, extending their decline...
ANALYSIS: A Historic Glance at Boneless Breast Values…
From a historical perspective, medium-sized boneless breasts have retained an unwavering premium over their heavier-sized companions...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Mirrors Market Ups and Downs
Last Friday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report closely coincides with the day-to-day experiences and overall trade sentiment of most turkey market participants...
ANALYSIS: 2019 Chicken Market: Anything but Stagnant
In light of this week’s relatively subdued level of spot buying and selling activity, we thought it would be a good opportunity to get a bird’s eye view of some key market influencers and assess their impact on the supply and demand equation...
ANALYSIS: Rising Corn Values Drive Down Turkey Production Expectations
According to the June issue of the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report, turkey remains the only major protein forecasted to exhibit a YoY decline in annual production tonnage for 2019...
ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on Feed Costs
While it is undeniable that any number of internal and external factors have the potential to impact a given commodity, it can be argued that production levels are perhaps one of the most impactful variables in the supply and demand equation...
ANALYSIS: April Turkey Exports: A Year Over Year Assessment
According to the USDA’s most recent data, total turkey exports for the month of April came in just shy of 25,200 metric tons; a substantial 8.2% rise over this time last year...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter
ANALYSIS: An Ongoing Trend Toward Greater Efficiency
The most recent release of the USDA’s Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Report closely coincides with the general expectations and overall experiences of most market participants...
ANALYSIS: Tom Weights and Breast Meat Values
As marketers patiently await “deli season” and the improvement in buying outreach which typically comes along with it, they turn their attention to the supply side in an effort to further refine their market expectations...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 6/08/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,417,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Shedding Some Light on Slaughter
With year-to-date chicken head slaughter coming in about 1% above 2018 levels, and in the absence of any major changes in demand patterns, it stands to reason that 2019’s stout marketing environment can at least partially be attributed to a decline in average live weights and the reduced production that comes with it...
ANALYSIS: Monthly Slaughter Report Helps to Clarify Cold Storage Plateau
Back in the end of March, Urner Barry called into question the accuracy of February’s inventory figures stating...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 6/01/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,109,000 head...
ANALYSIS: ASF Update; Changing Global Protein Flows
At the time of this report, African Swine Fever continues to spread generally unchecked through China and has more recently expanded to the neighboring nations of Hong Kong, Vietnam and Cambodia, in addition to the revelation that North Korea has been dealing with it since at least February. The lastest official numbers from China admit a 20.8% drop in the April hog herd vs last year and sow losses of 22.3% year over year. As China is notoriously selective with the amount and accuracy of data that they provide the world, this situation could be...
ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings Show Signs of Seasonality
Wednesday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report helps to underpin many of the key market forces which remained evident throughout the month of April...
ANALYSIS: A Mixed Showing for Chicken Exports
Between the African Swine Fever-related challenges on the pork side, the ongoing tariff scuffle between the U.S. and China, or the political tension south of the border, it’s safe to say that 2019 is proving to be an unsettled year for exporters...
ANALYSIS: Heavier Bird Weights Turning the Tide Against Breast Meat Values?
While individual approaches to business can vary widely, a common variable which most players share an equal appreciation for is production...
ANALYSIS: Thigh Meat Gets a Much Needed Leg Up
As springtime continues to take form, perhaps the most intriguing of all the turkey commodity lines is thigh meat...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Marketers Not Out of the Woods Yet
Although not immediately apparent by our chart, elevated public warehouse holdings continue to be a major cause for concern among chicken marketers...
March Cold Storage Pressure Cooling Off
This month, we delve into most recent Cold Storage Report to see if turkey marketers can finally breathe a sigh of relief, or if the mounting pressure from the freezer doors remains intact...
ANALYSIS: The Industry’s Ongoing Transition Towards A Heavy Bird Platform
The most recent release of the USDA’s Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Report may come as a surprise to some market participants, especially those who have been contending with lighter-than-expected birds recently...
ANALYSIS: Turkey: Looking Down
An optimist in the turkey market might call our analysis “looking up”. This is because annual production is forecasted to come in below last year and that is considered a positive development for turkey processors...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/20/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,408,000 head...
ANALYSIS: A Chicken Weight Conundrum
With Q1 under the industry’s belt, it’s a good time to reflect back on the supply data to see if this year’s anticipated production advancements are beginning to show up in the books...
ANALYSIS: Tom Weights: A Growing Burden for Turkey Marketers
As participants gauge their expectations for the road ahead, headcount and average live weights are among the most heavily considered variables in play...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/13/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,425,000 head...
ANALYSIS: A Chicken Wing Price Reflection
As the second seasonally-anticipated rally for the chicken wing market begins to wind down, reflecting back, it has proven to be an eventful season for America’s favorite finger food...
ANALYSIS: Pork Pressure Prompts Promising Turkey Potential
From a historical perspective, marketers of turkey and pork are no strangers to some good ol’ fashioned cross-protein competition...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/6/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,495,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Egg Inventories Hit Record Highs
National shell egg inventories were reported by the USDA at a record 1.610 million cases Monday, March 25th, climbing 9.1% from the week prior and 20.2% when compared to 3 weeks from Easter last year...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Freezer Stocks: Something to Gobble About
The latest release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report has produced more questions than it has answers...
ANALYSIS: A Mile-High Chicken Market Assessment
By most anybody’s standards, the performance of the Q1 chicken market exceeded expectations...
SNAP Participation Falls to Lowest Level Since 2009
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, otherwise known as SNAP, has been known to have significant influence on the protein market. Having been in existence since 1939, at least in its more primal stages, it’s safe to say that the longevity of this influence has run parallel with the growth and development of what we know to be today’s protein industry. This has become so evident that, like clockwork, just about everyone will expect a market variation or influence every “first of the month” or “week of the two's."
In March of 2019, SNAP participation went below 37 million people for the first time since September of 2009, almost a 10-year low. Many economists attribute this to...
ANALYSIS: Checking In On Q1 Performance
With spring now upon us, it seems like a good time to take a look at Q1 market performance.
ANALYSIS: 2018 Becomes Record Year for U.S. Beef Exports
The USDA released export numbers for the last month of 2018. December exports for beef, including variety meat, was reported at 112.8 thousand metric tons compared to 113.3 metric tons for December 2017...
ANALYSIS: Q1’s Cold Storage Picture Beginning to Develop
After a great deal of anticipation, market participants and observers finally got a glimpse of January’s public warehouse holdings...
ANALYSIS: A Push And Pull Between Turkey Live Weight and Headcount
The latest release of the USDA’s weekly slaughter report paints mixed picture for turkeys especially when it comes to average live weight and headcount figures...
ANALYSIS: Turkeys and the Big Chill
After a great deal of anticipation, about this time last week market observers finally caught a glimpse of December’s public warehouse holdings...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 3/09/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,543,000 head...
ANALYSIS: African Swine Fever in China; Outbreak Update
The outbreak of African Swine Fever in China has placed an ominous cloud of uncertainty over the global pork market, which could in turn impact other protein categories as well.
It cannot be overstated how big of a player China is in the pork market, as it is home to half of the globe’s hogs. At roughly 55 million metric tons, China’s domestic annual pork consumption is nearly as large as all other countries combined (49.7% of global pork consumption in 2018). With that in consideration, any threat to their supply of hogs is deemed quite critical because it has the potential to...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 3/02/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,507,000 head...
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