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ANALYSIS: Chiming in on the Mid-Year Turkey Market
As we usher in Q3, and in the absence of any major deviations in this week’s overall market environment, we thought it would be a great opportunity to break away from...
ANALYSIS: U.S. Protein Inventories Drawn Down During Plant Closures
U.S. cold storage stocks declined across the beef, pork, chicken, and egg categories in May as product was needed to...
Urner Barry's Coronavirus Special Report - Volume III
The global COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted consumer behavior, distribution, production, and market prices in a way we have never seen before. From stay-at-home directives that spurred a run on retail while foodservice operations were limited or halted all-together, to production cutbacks caused by labor shortages at the plant level, the industry has had much to contend with over the past several months.
Now, as many states have begun reopening phases, the industry is making strides in returning to a more “normal” business environment—however the face of this new normal will likely look a bit different...
CHART:Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: Hatchery figures: Filling a Need but Which One?
By almost every measure, 2020 has been an historic year and one which has rocked the chicken industry to its core...
ANALYSIS: Retail Beef and Broiler Prices At Highs, Pork Close
There was a change in leadership in food spend during the COVID-19, and it probably wasn’t unexpected given what transpired globally...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: Standing Resolute
Monday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report helps support the current standing of most major lines, and also reflects...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: Labor Issues Create Record Spread Between Bone-in and Boneless Hams
Despite the nation’s gradual recovery and reopening, labor issues continue to plague some areas of the pork industry. We have seen this most often...
ANALYSIS: Heavy Chickens and More of Them
Keen observers of the chicken market are well aware of the growing price spread between medium and jumbo-sized product...
ANALYSIS: Tom and Hen Poults Follow a Distinct YoY Path
As stay-at-home guidelines are lifted and the foodservice sector gradually returns, turkey market participants look to the hatch data in an attempt to refine their buying and...
ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Drop to Five-Month Low as Demand Lessens, Supplies Mount
After holding steady for the entire back half of May, shell-egg prices have once again come under pressure amid slowing demand patterns and mounting inventories. Suppliers were hopeful that the above-average sales they’d enjoyed since the start of the pandemic would endure, but seasonal demand shifts appear to have set in – as they often do in June, when the weather warms and consumers turn their attention to colder breakfast options.
Even where orders remain slightly above average for this time of year, they’ve slowed from some of the heavier volumes reported in May. The USDA reported Wednesday that its Weekly Shell Egg Demand Indicator – an estimate of demand based on current production and inventory clearance – plunged to its lowest level in more than a year...
ANALYSIS: A Divergence Between YoY Chicken Headcount and Average Live Weight
It almost goes without saying that COVID-19 related challenges have impacted just about every aspect of the chicken market and have translated into a highly volatile set of buying and selling conditions over the past several months...
ANALYSIS: A Mixed Month for Turkey Exports
For the past three months, total turkey export volume has consistently trended below year-ago levels and April was no exception...
ANALYSIS: April Shrimp Imports Increase 6.2 Percent
April imports were released today and showed another increase over the same month last year, continuing the trend set in the first three months. The data showed a 6.2 percent increase over last April to 113.822 million pounds. Urner Barry Consulting expectations were in-line with actual figures against some others that believed imports would fall because of shutdowns across the globe.
Of our top five trade partners, gains from the consensus top two, India (+25.2%) and Indonesia (+44.6%) overpowered less shipments from Ecuador (-30.9%), Vietnam (-10.5%), and Thailand (-5.9%)...
ANALYSIS: A Jumbo/Medium Chicken Breast Meat Inflection Point
Over the years, medium-sized boneless breasts have enjoyed an unyielding premium over their jumbo-sized counterparts...
ANALYSIS: Pork Butts See Significant Pressure After Memorial Day
Substantial pressure continues to be noted throughout the fresh pork complex with bone-in butts seeing considerable losses in just...
ANALYSIS: Boneless Pork Loins Broke 3 Records on June 1st
We kicked off June with a bang in the boneless pork loin market. The reactions to COVID-19 continue to produce volatility across the pork market. Having moved to record highs prior to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey - Potential Production Progress Report
About a month ago we took a look at turkey egg sets which had plummeted to some of the lowest seasonal figures on record...
ANALYSIS: A Bird’s Eye View of YTD Chicken Production
With mid-year just around the corner, this week we thought it would be a good opportunity to investigate how chicken headcount and average live weights are stacking up against...
The Trip Back to 'Normal' Slaughter Levels
Tuesday, May 26th, was a relative milestone for the hog industry as of late. The day’s kill was estimated at 405,000 head, the first time daily slaughter reached the 400,000 mark since April 17th. While this is a small victory, it is a victory nonetheless for an industry that has seen a precipitous drop in chain speeds due to COVID-19. The last time hog slaughter was near ‘normal’ was the week ended April 18th. Just two months ago, the industry achieved the largest daily hog slaughter on record at 500,879 head. As worker absenteeism and plant shutdowns disrupted chain speeds drastically during the last week of April, daily kill dropped to as low as 267,367 head, nearly 47% off its peak.
It has been a slow but steady climb back to ‘normal’ slaughter levels. The improvement in production capabilities during the latest five weeks has helped nudge last week’s kill to over 2 million head. Early indications for this Saturday’s slaughter are pushing...
ANALYSIS: COVID 19 Rooted Chicken Production Cutbacks on Tap
Not a day goes by when the immediate and future potential impact of COVID-19 isn't central to dialogue...
UB Consulting Presents: The Other Side of COVID-19
The latest report from UB Consulting provides a look into what The Other Side of COVID-19 looks like for the protein industry.
Although each commodity’s foodservice dependence varies widely, the ripple effects across supply chains continue to be felt, from inconsistent supply availability and price volatility, rising unemployment and changing consumer behavior. UB Consulting has outlined the biggest impacts seen in the egg, red meat, chicken, and certain segments of the seafood value chain as well as a few things to watch out for as we move closer to the "other side" of this pandemic.
Click HERE to read this exclusive report...
ANALYSIS: Fresh Tom Breast Meat: A Seasonal Assessment
Following a sluggish start to this year’s meat trade environment, marketers are finally embracing the return of...
Webinar: UB Insights Into COVID-19 Impacts on Red Meat, Poultry
This exclusive UB Insights webcast, aired May 14, 2020, features Urner Barry experts discussing the volatility of the beef, pork, and poultry markets during the coronavirus pandemic. Featured are beef market reporter Gary Morrison, pork market reporter Russell Barton, poultry market reporter Russ Whitman, livestock staff writer Courtney Shum and moderated by editorial director Jamie Chadwick...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Exports Spring Forward as China Makes a Comeback
The latest release of the USDA’s export figures help to paint a strong underlying picture to our trade relations with key export partners, and marks a significant return of...
ANALYSIS: Seasonal Draw, or Supply Side Flaw?
As the immediate shock of COVID-19 begins to subside, market participants look to the stats in an attempt to...
ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Come Under Pressure as Retail Demand Slips, Supplies Mount
U.S. shell egg prices are coming under pressure once again as retail demand begins to ease and supplies become increasingly available. After holding steady for...
ANALYSIS: Maintaining Perspective on Chicken Price Changes
As the shock and awe caused by the rapid market appreciation begins to subside and acceptance kicks in, this week we thought it would be a good opportunity to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Production: As Goes One
Between sluggish foodservice and QSR demand patterns and the increased prevalence of plant worker absenteeism, it is safe to say...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Processors Coping with COVID-19 Related Set Backs
In light of the recent challenges that COVID-19 has brought upon the chicken industry, this week we thought it would be a good opportunity to check in on the supply side of the equation to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: It’s a Matter of Perspective
COVID-19’s widespread impact on the protein market landscape has certainly tested the wits of turkey buyers and sellers...
ANALYSIS: Boneless Pork Loins Up 104%, 2.4x Higher than Chicken Breast
Boneless loins are currently experiencing a trifecta of bullish market factors: above average retail demand, significantly reduced slaughter schedules, and...
Is America Headed Towards a Meat Shortage?
Price gouging. Panic buying. Meat shortages. These phrases have dominated recent talk about the nation’s overall meat supply as a wave of plant closures and worker absenteeism rattle the supply chain and generate logistical hurdles. Increasingly, industry participants and consumers alike are uttering the unnerving question: Is America on the cusp of a nationwide meat shortage?
There are many factors at play when assessing the current supply and demand patterns in the midst of a pandemic. Notably, a second wave of panic buying, and the subsequent run-up in wholesale values, has recently...
Urner Barry Insights: An Exclusive Webinar on the Egg Market Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic
Join us on Tuesday, April 28, 2020, at 2pm EST for an Urner Barry Insights webinar covering the recent volatility in the egg market following the onset of COVID-19 impacts.
Recently, the egg market has seen volatility of unprecedented levels. Egg and egg products have seen both record highs and lows over the last few weeks. Tune in for a market update from Urner Barry’s own Brian Moscogiuri to understand the current trends and challenges facing producers and buyers.
Click HERE to register...
ANALYSIS: Coping with Production Excesses
From the slowdown in foodservice and QSR buying outreach, to plant worker absenteeism and even some inclement weather being thrown into the mix, chicken processors have...
ANALYSIS: Heavy Birds Ground Breast Meat Values
Although the impact that COVID-19 has had on the turkey industry is continuing to develop, one of the most severe implications of the virus, so far, has been...
ANALYSIS: Part 3 Of The Series – Rib Contribution to the Cutout
The first two parts of the cutout contribution series this week focused on the end cuts, chucks and rounds. These have been the two primals that have...
ANALYSIS: Egg Products Market Reeling in the Wake of Foodservice Shutdowns
Roughly one out of every three table eggs produced in the United States is broken by further processors to create egg products. This liquid, dried or frozen egg is...
ANALYSIS: Retail Ad Activity: Boneless Breasts
It almost goes without saying that the widespread direct and indirect implications of COVID-19 have wreaked havoc on what many considered to be...
ANALYSIS: Recent Plant Closures Creating Additional Uncertainty in the Value Chain
One of the first meat plants to announce its temporary closure due to the coronavirus was the JBS beef plant in Souderton, Pennsylvania on March 31st. Since then, additional beef, as well as...
ANALYSIS: Egg Prices Drop as Retail Demand Slows, Foodservice Supply Floods Market
Shell egg prices dropped below $2.00/dozen for the first time in four weeks yesterday, amid increased supply from the foodservice sector and...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Production: Getting Back to Basics
Amidst the unpredictable set of circumstances that the turkey industry has been forced to contend with lately, this week, we thought it would be a good opportunity to get back to basics and instead, focus on some known variables...
ANALYSIS: Chuck Contribution to Beef Cutout Making Major Moves
There has been a clear shift in demand patterns when looking at buying of boxed beef items during the current world pandemic. Middle meats, ribs and loins, typically...
ANALYSIS: A Chicken Production Assessment
During times of market agitation, chicken market participants and industry observers turn to the stats in an attempt to regain a sense of...
ANALYSIS: February Turkey Exports: Bittersweet
With February marking the second month of YoY reductions in total turkey export volume, it's safe to say that early year selling sentiment has been...
ANALYSIS: Fresh Pork Roller Coaster
Historically in the pork market, the degree of volatility seen recently was almost exclusively earmarked for the belly component. However, as the industry reacts to the quickly evolving...
ANALYSIS: A Bird’s Eye Perspective of Price Volatility
Following an historic, if not overwhelming, upward surge in retail-oriented demand patterns, chicken marketers have now found themselves contending with...
ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Coming Under Pressure as Foodservice Demand Slows, Frees Supply
After a more than three-week rally that saw prices surge to record-high levels, the shell egg market has come under pressure amid shifting demand patterns. Just as retail demand...
ANALYSIS: Fresh 50s Trend Sharply Lower
The market for fresh 50s closed sharply lower for the second day in a row. The weighted average moved about 21% lower on Tuesday and another...
ANALYSIS: Briskets, Outside Skirts, and Tenders...Oh My!
We have been following the impact of COVID-19 on protein prices closely as the situation started unfolding. Most of the discussions we have been having is regarding...
ANALYSIS: Pork Bellies Collapse to 1999 Levels
The last time pork bellies were trading at this level, you were probably more concerned with Y2K than what to do with excess bellies. We’re forced to turn the history books back to 1999 to see...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Thigh Meat and Pork Hams: Feeling the Export Pressure
Marketers of turkey thigh meat and boneless pork hams are certainly no stranger to some cross-protein competition...
ANALYSIS: Assessing COVID-19’s Initial Impact on the Chicken Market
Although COVID-19 is a relatively new challenge here in the US, its acute and unparalleled impact on spot market dynamics cannot be overstated...
ANALYSIS: Egg Prices Begin to Stabilize as Consumer Shopping Slows, Demand Normalizes
Following weeks of unrelenting demand, market sources from coast to coast are beginning to see retail orders for eggs...
ANALYSIS: Heightened Buyer Urgency Contributing to Reduced Turkey Stocks
Despite the pre-occupation with COVID-19 and its impact on the global protein markets as a whole, turkey freezer stocks are providing...
ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Soar to Record High Levels as COVID-19 Demand Persists, Inventories Drop
U.S. shell egg prices soared to fresh all-time highs today, as retail demand continues to come in at levels never-before seen due to COVID-19. The early round of buying witnessed a few weeks ago was...
ANALYSIS: Record Cattle Basis – Driven By Steep Losses in CME and Retail Buying Support
Assuming April live cattle close limit up today, March 19, 2020 at $95.10, that is a $17.90 spread from yesterday's $113 live trade in the South compared to...
ANALYSIS: An Historical Look at Q1 Boneless Breast Performance
It almost goes without saying that the widespread impact of COVID-19 has left most food-oriented businesses scrambling to adapt to the rapidly developing and unpredictable swing in demand patterns...
ANALYSIS: COVID-19 and the Pork Market
Analyzing a situation at the beginning or in the middle of a market-moving event is never an easy task, and with Coronavirus, this fact rings truer than ever. In truth, it has not been that long since...
ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Soar 95%, Inventories Drop as COVID-19 Fears Drive Retail Demand
U.S. shell egg prices have nearly doubled over the past two weeks, as coronavirus-related concerns have flooded retail stores with shoppers in pursuit of household necessities – eggs being one of the most...
ANALYSIS: January Turkey Exports: Ups and Downs
Upon first glance, the latest turkey export data for the month of January appears to follow closely in the wake of December’s choppy year-end close...
ANALYSIS: Sell-Off in CME Live Cattle Futures Triggers Key Indicator for Live Cattle
As the global equity markets remain volatile, and bond yields have moved significantly lower, CME live cattle futures have been...
ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on YoY Chicken Prices
With Q2 just around the corner, we thought it would be a good opportunity to gain some perspective on the YoY performance of some key items within the chicken complex...
ANALYSIS: Whole-Body Toms: A Q1 Assessment
A central focus of turkey market participants has been whole body birds, and with good reason. Frozen turkeys have begun to...
ANALYSIS: Shell-Egg Prices Jump to Three-Month High Amid Coronavirus Fears, Production Cuts
U.S. shell egg prices jumped to a three-month high yesterday amid reduced outputs and a surge in retail demand, spurred – at least in part – by fears related to...
ANALYSIS: All Eyes on Chicken White Meat
In a somewhat unexpected change of pace, chicken white meats have recently begun to gain some upward price momentum...
ANALYSIS: A Turkey White Meat Conundrum
Those on the turkey white meat side of the business are no stranger to the ebb and flow of seasonality...
ANALYSIS: Freezer Burn
In light of the recent attention being placed on China, a central focus of chicken processors and exporters has been the back half of the bird, and with good reason...
ANALYSIS: Whole Bird Stocks Bolster Processor Enthusiasm
Following last month’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report which drew some skepticism from market participants, the January report sends a jolt of optimism to sellers, especially those...
ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on the Q1 Protein Production Trend
In light of this week’s uninspiring level of spot trade activity, we thought it would be a good opportunity to venture away from the day-to-day in favor of a broader view of...
ANALYSIS: And the Year-End Export Figures Are...
The most recent release of the USDA’s export data paints a fairly choppy year-end picture to the turkey side of the business...
ANALYSIS: An Initial 2020 Chicken Production Assessment
With the first couple weeks of 2020 under the industry’s collective belt, we thought it would be a good opportunity to check in on the slaughter stats...
ANALYSIS: Checking In On February’s Turkey Prices
Those in attendance at the National Turkey Federation Meeting this week are sure to be discussing the current state of the market and...
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