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CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Slaughter
ANALYSIS: All Eyes on Chicken Production
As chicken market participants navigate through the final quarter of 2019, they turn to the stats in an effort to better assess the various market influences that they face within the current trade environment...
ANALYSIS: Tallying Up Turkey Export Tonnage
With August marking the fifth consecutive month of YoY advancements in total turkey export volume, it’s safe to say that, so far, 2019 has proven to be...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on Key Market Factors
In light of an underwhelming level of spot buying and selling activity within the chicken complex, we thought it would be a great opportunity to check in on some of the major influencers to see what impact they are having on the market...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Production Tug of War
As we enter Q4, and without any significant hurdles between now and Thanksgiving, marketers of retail packaged turkeys are gearing up for a seasonally hectic pace associated with fulfilling and delivering voluminous holiday orders...
ANALYSIS: Checking in on Chicken in Cold Storage
Monday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report helps to reinforce many of the key market observations which we reported on throughout the month of August...
ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on Frozen Turkey Inventory
Monday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report for the period ending August 31st marks the fifth consecutive month of YoY reductions of total frozen turkey holdings...
ANALYSIS: Shell-Egg Inventories Jump 3.5% from Last Week; Up 12.9% from Last Year
Shell-egg supplies climbed 3.5% to 1.517 million cases last week, according to the USDA’s latest round of inventory data, released yesterday afternoon. This marks the...
ANALYSIS: Examining 2019’s Production Expectations
In light of this week’s relatively subdued level of spot trade activity within the chicken marketplace, we thought it would be a good opportunity to step away from the day-to-day in favor of a mile-high glimpse of 2019’s protein production outlook...
ANALYSIS: Checking In On The Turkey Hatch
When it comes to turkey poult placements, 2019 has consistently trended below 2018 levels and August was no exception...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 9/21/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,588,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Exports: A Strong Start to Q3
July’s export figures bring some much-needed clarity to a market which has been riddled with political trade tension and cross-protein competition, mostly in the form of increased outbound shipments of chicken...
ANALYSIS: Beefing Up Turkey Exports
Despite positive performance in the latest turkey export figures, they still fell short of the buoyed expectations fueled by the Japan trade agreement back in...
CHART: Industry Expecations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: Another Day, Another Chicken
Keeping in line with what has, so far, been an historic year for production, the pullet placement figures suggest that even more broilers will be in the cards moving forward...
ANALYSIS: Balancing the Supply and Demand Scale
Without any major food-oriented holidays left between now and Thanksgiving, whole bird market participants turn their attention toward November in anticipation of what’s to come...
ANALYSIS: A Clear Trend Toward More Efficient Chicken Weights
With YTD ready-to-cook production continuing to trend upward by about 2% when compared to 2018, and in the absence of any major deviations in what has been a fairly lackluster set of demand patterns for chicken recently, we thought it would be a good time to turn our attention to the supply side of the equation...
ANALYSIS: Gearing Up for Turkey Season
As we enter the final stretch of Q3, turkey market participants put their game faces on as whole bird season gets its second wind...
ANALYSIS: Record Low Medium Breast Meat Values: What's Happening at Retail?
When it comes to the former, the USDA Fresh Chicken Retail Feature Activity shows that current total chicken featuring resides well below the seven-year average, including 2018, a year which was certainly one to forget for those marketing fresh chicken parts...
ANALYSIS: RTC Production: A Comparison Between Monthly and Weekly Data
As illustrated by our chart, monthly YTD ready-to-cook tonnage and the data derived from the weekly slaughter report have generally followed a similar rate of increase. The monthly data however, has consistently tended above the monthly RTC figures...
ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings: A Prognosticator of Wing Performance?
As preseason football season gets underway, fans are beginning to flock to their local drinking hole to watch the game and enjoy America’s favorite finger food: chicken wings. Taking a look at inventory levels and price reaction in the period leading up to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Thigh Meat and Boneless Pork Hams At a Crossroads
From an historical standpoint, marketers of turkey thigh meat and boneless pork ham are no strangers to some cross-protein rivalry...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Hog Slaughter
CHART: Industry Expectations for Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: “Smart” Poultry Houses Influential in Seasonally Heavy Bird Weights
When it comes to commodity valuation, there are numerous internal and external variables which have the capacity to influence the supply and demand sides of the equation...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Demand Drives YoY Export Advances
As evidenced by the USDA’s most recent turkey export data, June turned out to be a fruitful month for those on the sell side of the equation...
ANALYSIS: Automated Deboning Diluting Seasonal Volatility?
With the national average unemployment rate currently situated at 3.7%, it comes as no surprise that ongoing labor shortages have been a major source of frustration for chicken processors...
ANALYSIS: Adding a Spring to Turkey’s Summertime Stride
Following what many players would term as a sluggish start to this year’s seasonally anticipated turkey white meat rally, marketers are finally embracing the return of some noteworthy seasonal underpinnings...
ANALYSIS: YTD Headcount: It’s All About Efficiency
Following last week’s analysis, which investigated the year-over-year uptrend in both headcount and average live weight, this week, we delve into the individual bird weight classifications to shed some additional light on the recent surge in weekly RTC production figures...
ANALYSIS: US Table Egg Flock Falls 14 Million Head Over Last 3 MonthsThe USDA’s Monthly Chicken and Eggs report, released Tuesday July 23rd, showed that at 327.31 million layers...
ANALYSIS: Tallying up Turkey Tonnage
Monday’s release of the latest Cold Storage Report closely aligns with the market undercurrent and trade sentiment about which Urner Barry has been reporting...
CHART: Industry Expectations For Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: Heavy Chickens and More of Them
The price depreciation that many key items within the chicken complex have exhibited this week has prompted players to search for both external and internal variables in an effort to shed some light on the recent price slump...
ANALYSIS: A Bird’s Eye View of Poult Placement Figures
Monday’s release of the USDA’s Turkey Hatch Report continues to shed light on 2019’s declining poult placement trend...
ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings and Whole Wings: An Inverse Relationship
Counter to what historic seasonality suggests, the jumbo whole wing market has proven to be fairly steadfast following the “finger food”-oriented buying outreach of Q1...
ANALYSIS: An Updraft in May’s Turkey Exports
By the looks of the USDA’s most recent data, May proved to be a lively month for those involved in turkey exports...
REPORTER: Beef Demand Remains Strong in the Face of Growing Supplies
REPORTER: Pork: Turbulence Driven by African Swine Fever
REPORTER: Sheepish Sales, Even In The Veal Market
This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
Monthly lamb boxed cut prices in the first quarter of 2019 were mixed compared to the prior year. As of the second week in April, year-to-date lamb and mutton production numbers are roughly 4.8% lower. So far this year, USDA lamb imports have outpaced the equivalent month for last year. Demand for lamb is expected to be steady to slightly stronger as we progress through 2019.
REPORTER: Supplies: It's a Matter of Balance
Reporter: How the U.S. Hog Industry has Changed
REPORTER: Internal Growth and Export Opportunities in the Mexican Beef Market
REPORTER: Planting Season Gets Off to a Slow Start
REPORTER: Big Cattle Numbers Seen in 2019
REPORTER: US Egg Prices Tracking Back Toward 2016 Lows
It seems there is never a dull year in the egg market. From diseases that rock the supply chain, promotions that excite consumers, changes in dietary guidelines, shifts in production standards, and countless other issues, markets are constantly being impacted by unexpected issues, both domesticallyand abroad.Over the last five years, the egg market has seen record highs and lows around the 2015 Avian Influenza Outbreak. Had it not been for these extremes, Urner Barry’s benchmark prices would have just broken all-time highs and lows in the last year alone. “Retail Wars” and international issues led to a record first quarter in 2018 and yet, a year later, egg prices struggled through the Easter marketing period, extending their decline...
ANALYSIS: A Historic Glance at Boneless Breast Values…
From a historical perspective, medium-sized boneless breasts have retained an unwavering premium over their heavier-sized companions...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Mirrors Market Ups and Downs
Last Friday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report closely coincides with the day-to-day experiences and overall trade sentiment of most turkey market participants...
ANALYSIS: 2019 Chicken Market: Anything but Stagnant
In light of this week’s relatively subdued level of spot buying and selling activity, we thought it would be a good opportunity to get a bird’s eye view of some key market influencers and assess their impact on the supply and demand equation...
ANALYSIS: Rising Corn Values Drive Down Turkey Production Expectations
According to the June issue of the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report, turkey remains the only major protein forecasted to exhibit a YoY decline in annual production tonnage for 2019...
ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on Feed Costs
While it is undeniable that any number of internal and external factors have the potential to impact a given commodity, it can be argued that production levels are perhaps one of the most impactful variables in the supply and demand equation...
ANALYSIS: April Turkey Exports: A Year Over Year Assessment
According to the USDA’s most recent data, total turkey exports for the month of April came in just shy of 25,200 metric tons; a substantial 8.2% rise over this time last year...
ANALYSIS: An Ongoing Trend Toward Greater Efficiency
The most recent release of the USDA’s Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Report closely coincides with the general expectations and overall experiences of most market participants...
ANALYSIS: Tom Weights and Breast Meat Values
As marketers patiently await “deli season” and the improvement in buying outreach which typically comes along with it, they turn their attention to the supply side in an effort to further refine their market expectations...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 6/08/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,417,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Shedding Some Light on Slaughter
With year-to-date chicken head slaughter coming in about 1% above 2018 levels, and in the absence of any major changes in demand patterns, it stands to reason that 2019’s stout marketing environment can at least partially be attributed to a decline in average live weights and the reduced production that comes with it...
ANALYSIS: Monthly Slaughter Report Helps to Clarify Cold Storage Plateau
Back in the end of March, Urner Barry called into question the accuracy of February’s inventory figures stating...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 6/01/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,109,000 head...
ANALYSIS: ASF Update; Changing Global Protein Flows
At the time of this report, African Swine Fever continues to spread generally unchecked through China and has more recently expanded to the neighboring nations of Hong Kong, Vietnam and Cambodia, in addition to the revelation that North Korea has been dealing with it since at least February. The lastest official numbers from China admit a 20.8% drop in the April hog herd vs last year and sow losses of 22.3% year over year. As China is notoriously selective with the amount and accuracy of data that they provide the world, this situation could be...
ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings Show Signs of Seasonality
Wednesday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report helps to underpin many of the key market forces which remained evident throughout the month of April...
ANALYSIS: A Mixed Showing for Chicken Exports
Between the African Swine Fever-related challenges on the pork side, the ongoing tariff scuffle between the U.S. and China, or the political tension south of the border, it’s safe to say that 2019 is proving to be an unsettled year for exporters...
ANALYSIS: Heavier Bird Weights Turning the Tide Against Breast Meat Values?
While individual approaches to business can vary widely, a common variable which most players share an equal appreciation for is production...
ANALYSIS: Thigh Meat Gets a Much Needed Leg Up
As springtime continues to take form, perhaps the most intriguing of all the turkey commodity lines is thigh meat...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Marketers Not Out of the Woods Yet
Although not immediately apparent by our chart, elevated public warehouse holdings continue to be a major cause for concern among chicken marketers...
March Cold Storage Pressure Cooling Off
This month, we delve into most recent Cold Storage Report to see if turkey marketers can finally breathe a sigh of relief, or if the mounting pressure from the freezer doors remains intact...
ANALYSIS: The Industry’s Ongoing Transition Towards A Heavy Bird Platform
The most recent release of the USDA’s Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Report may come as a surprise to some market participants, especially those who have been contending with lighter-than-expected birds recently...
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