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ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on Feed Costs
While it is undeniable that any number of internal and external factors have the potential to impact a given commodity, it can be argued that production levels are perhaps one of the most impactful variables in the supply and demand equation...
ANALYSIS: April Turkey Exports: A Year Over Year Assessment
According to the USDA’s most recent data, total turkey exports for the month of April came in just shy of 25,200 metric tons; a substantial 8.2% rise over this time last year...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter
ANALYSIS: An Ongoing Trend Toward Greater Efficiency
The most recent release of the USDA’s Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Report closely coincides with the general expectations and overall experiences of most market participants...
ANALYSIS: Tom Weights and Breast Meat Values
As marketers patiently await “deli season” and the improvement in buying outreach which typically comes along with it, they turn their attention to the supply side in an effort to further refine their market expectations...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 6/08/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,417,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Shedding Some Light on Slaughter
With year-to-date chicken head slaughter coming in about 1% above 2018 levels, and in the absence of any major changes in demand patterns, it stands to reason that 2019’s stout marketing environment can at least partially be attributed to a decline in average live weights and the reduced production that comes with it...
ANALYSIS: Monthly Slaughter Report Helps to Clarify Cold Storage Plateau
Back in the end of March, Urner Barry called into question the accuracy of February’s inventory figures stating...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 6/01/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,109,000 head...
ANALYSIS: ASF Update; Changing Global Protein Flows
At the time of this report, African Swine Fever continues to spread generally unchecked through China and has more recently expanded to the neighboring nations of Hong Kong, Vietnam and Cambodia, in addition to the revelation that North Korea has been dealing with it since at least February. The lastest official numbers from China admit a 20.8% drop in the April hog herd vs last year and sow losses of 22.3% year over year. As China is notoriously selective with the amount and accuracy of data that they provide the world, this situation could be...
ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings Show Signs of Seasonality
Wednesday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report helps to underpin many of the key market forces which remained evident throughout the month of April...
ANALYSIS: A Mixed Showing for Chicken Exports
Between the African Swine Fever-related challenges on the pork side, the ongoing tariff scuffle between the U.S. and China, or the political tension south of the border, it’s safe to say that 2019 is proving to be an unsettled year for exporters...
ANALYSIS: Heavier Bird Weights Turning the Tide Against Breast Meat Values?
While individual approaches to business can vary widely, a common variable which most players share an equal appreciation for is production...
ANALYSIS: Thigh Meat Gets a Much Needed Leg Up
As springtime continues to take form, perhaps the most intriguing of all the turkey commodity lines is thigh meat...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Marketers Not Out of the Woods Yet
Although not immediately apparent by our chart, elevated public warehouse holdings continue to be a major cause for concern among chicken marketers...
March Cold Storage Pressure Cooling Off
This month, we delve into most recent Cold Storage Report to see if turkey marketers can finally breathe a sigh of relief, or if the mounting pressure from the freezer doors remains intact...
ANALYSIS: The Industry’s Ongoing Transition Towards A Heavy Bird Platform
The most recent release of the USDA’s Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Report may come as a surprise to some market participants, especially those who have been contending with lighter-than-expected birds recently...
ANALYSIS: Turkey: Looking Down
An optimist in the turkey market might call our analysis “looking up”. This is because annual production is forecasted to come in below last year and that is considered a positive development for turkey processors...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/20/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,408,000 head...
ANALYSIS: A Chicken Weight Conundrum
With Q1 under the industry’s belt, it’s a good time to reflect back on the supply data to see if this year’s anticipated production advancements are beginning to show up in the books...
ANALYSIS: Tom Weights: A Growing Burden for Turkey Marketers
As participants gauge their expectations for the road ahead, headcount and average live weights are among the most heavily considered variables in play...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/13/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,425,000 head...
ANALYSIS: A Chicken Wing Price Reflection
As the second seasonally-anticipated rally for the chicken wing market begins to wind down, reflecting back, it has proven to be an eventful season for America’s favorite finger food...
ANALYSIS: Pork Pressure Prompts Promising Turkey Potential
From a historical perspective, marketers of turkey and pork are no strangers to some good ol’ fashioned cross-protein competition...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/6/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,495,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Egg Inventories Hit Record Highs
National shell egg inventories were reported by the USDA at a record 1.610 million cases Monday, March 25th, climbing 9.1% from the week prior and 20.2% when compared to 3 weeks from Easter last year...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Freezer Stocks: Something to Gobble About
The latest release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report has produced more questions than it has answers...
ANALYSIS: A Mile-High Chicken Market Assessment
By most anybody’s standards, the performance of the Q1 chicken market exceeded expectations...
SNAP Participation Falls to Lowest Level Since 2009
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, otherwise known as SNAP, has been known to have significant influence on the protein market. Having been in existence since 1939, at least in its more primal stages, it’s safe to say that the longevity of this influence has run parallel with the growth and development of what we know to be today’s protein industry. This has become so evident that, like clockwork, just about everyone will expect a market variation or influence every “first of the month” or “week of the two's."
In March of 2019, SNAP participation went below 37 million people for the first time since September of 2009, almost a 10-year low. Many economists attribute this to...
ANALYSIS: Checking In On Q1 Performance
With spring now upon us, it seems like a good time to take a look at Q1 market performance.
ANALYSIS: 2018 Becomes Record Year for U.S. Beef Exports
The USDA released export numbers for the last month of 2018. December exports for beef, including variety meat, was reported at 112.8 thousand metric tons compared to 113.3 metric tons for December 2017...
ANALYSIS: Q1’s Cold Storage Picture Beginning to Develop
After a great deal of anticipation, market participants and observers finally got a glimpse of January’s public warehouse holdings...
ANALYSIS: A Push And Pull Between Turkey Live Weight and Headcount
The latest release of the USDA’s weekly slaughter report paints mixed picture for turkeys especially when it comes to average live weight and headcount figures...
ANALYSIS: Turkeys and the Big Chill
After a great deal of anticipation, about this time last week market observers finally caught a glimpse of December’s public warehouse holdings...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 3/09/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,543,000 head...
ANALYSIS: African Swine Fever in China; Outbreak Update
The outbreak of African Swine Fever in China has placed an ominous cloud of uncertainty over the global pork market, which could in turn impact other protein categories as well.
It cannot be overstated how big of a player China is in the pork market, as it is home to half of the globe’s hogs. At roughly 55 million metric tons, China’s domestic annual pork consumption is nearly as large as all other countries combined (49.7% of global pork consumption in 2018). With that in consideration, any threat to their supply of hogs is deemed quite critical because it has the potential to...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 3/02/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,507,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Prices Stimulating Seasonal Demand
Following a multi-year price correction resulting from circumstances surrounding 2015’s AI epidemic, turkey participants are welcoming what is being interpreted as a much-needed return of seasonality...
ANALYSIS: February Chicken Wing Values: Bucking the Historical Trend?
During the thirty days following the Superbowl, wing values have traditionally descended back down to earth...
Ball-Tip Becomes More Expensive Compared to Top Butt
The charts below show the correlation of the top butt and ball tip, two value cuts. Movement trends for these two items seemed to mirror each other up until October 2017...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Breasts and Breast Meat Close the Price Gap
Following a multi-year departure from the historical norm, the price spread between bone-in and boneless turkey breast quotations has gradually shifted back into something a little bit more recognizable...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 2/9/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,584,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Jumbo and Medium Breast Meat Price Spread
Historically, medium-sized boneless breasts have maintained a consistent premium over their heavier counterparts...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 1/26/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2.519m head...
Tom Weight Trend: All-Time High or One Week Flyby?
It’s no surprise to turkey market participants that average live tom weights have gradually trended upward over the years...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Price Check: 2019 Taking the Helm, or Will YoY Comparisons Continue to Underwhelm?
Beginning in late Q4 2018 and continuing into early Q1, a number of key items within the chicken complex gained stature by riding the coattails of steady demand and constricted supplies...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 1/19/19 resulted in an industry participant estimate of roughly 2,519,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Thigh Meat and Boneless Pork Ham Vie for the Buyer’s Attention
Attractive price points along with more manageable cold storage holdings have boosted early-Q1 trade sentiment, however these underpinnings haven’t graced every segment of the market uniformly...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 1/05/2019 resulted in an average industry participant estimate of 2,177,000 head...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Freezer Stocks: Never Look a Gift Horse in the Mouth
Following what is arguably the most logistically challenging time of the year, last Friday’s Cold Storage Report gave...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter for the week ending 12/22/18 resulted in an average industry participant estimate of 2,728,000 head...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll resulted in an average industry participant estimate of 2,258,000 head. If realized, this figure would represent a 14 percent decline from last week and a 4.9 percent increase over a year ago...
The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 11/03/18 resulted in an average industry participant estimate of 2,608,000 head...
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