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ANALYSIS: Turkey Holdings--In Tune With the Times
The most recent release of the USDA’s cold storage report helps to support the current standing of most major lines within the turkey complex while, at the same time, reflects...
ANALYSIS: Pork Cold Storage 2020 Update
Cold Storage is a key metric that allows us to see the impact the coronavirus pandemic has had, and continues to have, on the pork market overall. The diminished production in Q2, due to...
ANALYSIS: U.S. Breaking Stock Values Surge on Strong Exports, Government Buying
U.S. breaking stock values have surged 41% over the past two weeks, thanks to strong export demand and...
CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: Record Chicken Weight a Product of the Times
Seasoned observers of the chicken industry understand that a number of factors contribute to feed conversion and weight gain among broilers...
ANALYSIS: Tidying Up Toms
It was only a few years back that the turkey industry was lamenting the state of the affairs in the whole bird market...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Slaughter--A Familiar Trend Emerges
With Q4 at our doorstep, this week we thought it would be a great opportunity to check in on the slaughter stats to investigate how the average weights of chickens and the distribution of them relative to headcount, is stacking up to the high bar set in 2019...
ANALYSIS: As Temperatures Rose, So Did Turkey Export Tonnage
Following three consecutive month-over-month reductions in total turkey export tonnage, July bucked the trend with outward volume increasing by 9.5 million pounds or 25.2% above...
ANALYSIS: Pork Trim Point Per Lean Comparison
Late seasonal domestic demand, export interest, lighter hog weights, and diminished availability of boning line workers have been noted as...
China and Japan Suspend Pork Imports from Germany Following African Swine Fever Case
According to the German Food and Agriculture Ministry, China and Japan have suspended imports of pork and live pigs from Germany after a case of African swine fever was confirmed in a wild boar near the Polish border in the eastern state of Brandenburg, Germany. This comes as South Korea banned imports of German pork last week.
Pork imports of 40,230 tons from Germany last year accounted for about 3.3% of Japan's total imports of pork, the ministry reported. Japan did not import any live pigs last year, down from six in 2018. China's ban on imports comes as the country deals with its own spread of the disease. German pork exports to China total about...
ANALYSIS: ASF Reported in Germany; A Look at German Pork Exports
An African Swine Fever case has been identified and confirmed in one wild boar in Schenkendöbern, Brandenburg, Germany on...
ANALYSIS: Q4 Wing and Tender Performance Dependent on Price and Seasonality
It is certainly a relief to have our daily lives slowly returning to something we might recognize as normal. There is no doubt that is the case for...
ANALYSIS: Pork Offals in Cold Storage Decline as Fresh Supplies Remain Thin
The labor force continues to be stretched thin at many production plants following the wave of closures that occurred earlier in the year due to...
ANALYSIS: Don’t Count Your Chickens Before They Hit The Scale
When it comes to boneless breast valuation, most players would agree that, other than finicky demand, the seasonal ebb and flow of bird weights is perhaps...
ANALYSIS: Tension In the Turkey White Meat Complex
In keeping with this year’s unusual and often precarious set of market conditions, a large differential has begun to...
Urner Barry's Coronavirus Special Report - Volume IV
The global COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted consumer behavior, distribution, production, and market prices in a way we have never seen before. Now, as reopening efforts are underway, the latest business environment is a completely new venture for the food industry with its own learning curve. Both retail and foodservice have been forced to make sweeping changes in their respective sectors and adaptability remains key. Production setbacks were arguably one of the biggest challenges the meat industry faced in the last few months of the pandemic, but capacity has since largely returned to normal.
As we near the end of summer, seasonal shifts are also in play...
ANALYSIS: Digging Deeper into Chicken Leg Quarters
The uninspiring level of demand that sellers are currently contending with is nothing new for those with exposure to the back-half of the bird...
ANALYSIS: The Spread Between Wholesale and Retail Beef Prices
During the COVID-19, wholesale beef prices have moved through phases as the situation changed...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: Traversing Along a Bumpy Seasonal Path
The latest release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report not only helps to speak to the solid supply positioning of major turkey lines, but it also highlights...
ANALYSIS: Year-Over-Year Highs for Sow Slaughter
According to the June Hogs and Pigs report, intended farrowings for September-November are down 5% from a year ago, implying...
ANALYSIS: Taking a Look At the Spread Between Ribeyes and Strip Loins
Typically, ribs and loins follow the same sort of trend, and are largely sought after in the foodservice sector. This year, with the pandemic, there has been...
ANALYSIS: Tallying up Turkey Tonnage
Today we thought it would be a good opportunity to take a step away from the day-to-day in favor of a broader look at the production side of the turkey equation...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Tenders: Rolling With the Punches
2020’s chicken market has been a far cry from conventional and the tender segment is no exception...
ANALYSIS: Price Sensitivity Dictating Mexican Ham Demand
Over the years turkey thigh meat, the primary component of turkey hams, and boneless pork hams, have shared a distinct and somewhat polarized relationship with one another...
ANALYSIS: Stairs Going Up, Elevator Going Down
While 2020’s chicken market has certainly had its fair share of ups and downs recently, it has also brought with it...
ANALYSIS: Jumbo Wings: A Mid-Year Coin Toss
2020 has been anything but predictable and the wing market is no exception. While a seasonal increase in buying interest and in paid prices is...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Slaughter Tells a Seasonal Tale, with a COVID-19 Twist
As we approach the end of July, and without any significant changes to what has been a relatively quiet trade environment lately, turkey participants and observers are taking some extra time to...
ANALYSIS: Estimated Pork Packer Margins vs The Pork Cutout
Estimated pork packer margins for standard operations, or outside purchasers of hogs, reached record highs in May, following the difficult period when COVID-19 resulted in...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Cold Storage: A Mid-Year Freeze
Wednesday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report closely coincides with the current standing of most major chicken lines and also reflects...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Exports in May: A Sign of the Times
Closely aligned with the real-world trade experiences of turkey market participants, May not only marks the second consecutive month of...
ANALYSIS: For Chicken Processors, “Normal” Can’t Come Soon Enough
Between the ongoing challenges associated with plant worker absenteeism, fluctuating slaughter figures and the unpredictable pull from both...
ANALYSIS: The Sustained Flight of Whole-Body Turkeys
In terms of turkey trade activity, there isn’t a whole lot going on here in Mid-July. Market participants continue to contend with the widespread supply and demand challenges associated with...
ANALYSIS: Pork 2020 Comparison
The first half of 2020 was highly volatile in the pork market due to a myriad of factors. While cases of ASF continued to be reported across several...
ANALYSIS: The Growing Price Gap Between Jumbo and Select Sized Boneless
Last year, we published an article titled, “Boneless Chicken Breasts and the New Norm” which shed light on...
ANALYSIS: A Tenuous Year for Turkey Trade
Closely coinciding with the real-world trade experiences of market participants, the latest export figures bring with them no surprises as they continue to...
ANALYSIS: Chiming in on the Mid-Year Turkey Market
As we usher in Q3, and in the absence of any major deviations in this week’s overall market environment, we thought it would be a great opportunity to break away from...
ANALYSIS: U.S. Protein Inventories Drawn Down During Plant Closures
U.S. cold storage stocks declined across the beef, pork, chicken, and egg categories in May as product was needed to...
Urner Barry's Coronavirus Special Report - Volume III
The global COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted consumer behavior, distribution, production, and market prices in a way we have never seen before. From stay-at-home directives that spurred a run on retail while foodservice operations were limited or halted all-together, to production cutbacks caused by labor shortages at the plant level, the industry has had much to contend with over the past several months.
Now, as many states have begun reopening phases, the industry is making strides in returning to a more “normal” business environment—however the face of this new normal will likely look a bit different...
CHART:Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter
ANALYSIS: Hatchery figures: Filling a Need but Which One?
By almost every measure, 2020 has been an historic year and one which has rocked the chicken industry to its core...
ANALYSIS: Retail Beef and Broiler Prices At Highs, Pork Close
There was a change in leadership in food spend during the COVID-19, and it probably wasn’t unexpected given what transpired globally...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: Standing Resolute
Monday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report helps support the current standing of most major lines, and also reflects...
ANALYSIS: Labor Issues Create Record Spread Between Bone-in and Boneless Hams
Despite the nation’s gradual recovery and reopening, labor issues continue to plague some areas of the pork industry. We have seen this most often...
ANALYSIS: Heavy Chickens and More of Them
Keen observers of the chicken market are well aware of the growing price spread between medium and jumbo-sized product...
ANALYSIS: Tom and Hen Poults Follow a Distinct YoY Path
As stay-at-home guidelines are lifted and the foodservice sector gradually returns, turkey market participants look to the hatch data in an attempt to refine their buying and...
ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Drop to Five-Month Low as Demand Lessens, Supplies Mount
After holding steady for the entire back half of May, shell-egg prices have once again come under pressure amid slowing demand patterns and mounting inventories. Suppliers were hopeful that the above-average sales they’d enjoyed since the start of the pandemic would endure, but seasonal demand shifts appear to have set in – as they often do in June, when the weather warms and consumers turn their attention to colder breakfast options.
Even where orders remain slightly above average for this time of year, they’ve slowed from some of the heavier volumes reported in May. The USDA reported Wednesday that its Weekly Shell Egg Demand Indicator – an estimate of demand based on current production and inventory clearance – plunged to its lowest level in more than a year...
ANALYSIS: A Divergence Between YoY Chicken Headcount and Average Live Weight
It almost goes without saying that COVID-19 related challenges have impacted just about every aspect of the chicken market and have translated into a highly volatile set of buying and selling conditions over the past several months...
ANALYSIS: A Mixed Month for Turkey Exports
For the past three months, total turkey export volume has consistently trended below year-ago levels and April was no exception...
ANALYSIS: April Shrimp Imports Increase 6.2 Percent
April imports were released today and showed another increase over the same month last year, continuing the trend set in the first three months. The data showed a 6.2 percent increase over last April to 113.822 million pounds. Urner Barry Consulting expectations were in-line with actual figures against some others that believed imports would fall because of shutdowns across the globe.
Of our top five trade partners, gains from the consensus top two, India (+25.2%) and Indonesia (+44.6%) overpowered less shipments from Ecuador (-30.9%), Vietnam (-10.5%), and Thailand (-5.9%)...
ANALYSIS: A Jumbo/Medium Chicken Breast Meat Inflection Point
Over the years, medium-sized boneless breasts have enjoyed an unyielding premium over their jumbo-sized counterparts...
ANALYSIS: Pork Butts See Significant Pressure After Memorial Day
Substantial pressure continues to be noted throughout the fresh pork complex with bone-in butts seeing considerable losses in just...
ANALYSIS: Boneless Pork Loins Broke 3 Records on June 1st
We kicked off June with a bang in the boneless pork loin market. The reactions to COVID-19 continue to produce volatility across the pork market. Having moved to record highs prior to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey - Potential Production Progress Report
About a month ago we took a look at turkey egg sets which had plummeted to some of the lowest seasonal figures on record...
ANALYSIS: A Bird’s Eye View of YTD Chicken Production
With mid-year just around the corner, this week we thought it would be a good opportunity to investigate how chicken headcount and average live weights are stacking up against...
The Trip Back to 'Normal' Slaughter Levels
Tuesday, May 26th, was a relative milestone for the hog industry as of late. The day’s kill was estimated at 405,000 head, the first time daily slaughter reached the 400,000 mark since April 17th. While this is a small victory, it is a victory nonetheless for an industry that has seen a precipitous drop in chain speeds due to COVID-19. The last time hog slaughter was near ‘normal’ was the week ended April 18th. Just two months ago, the industry achieved the largest daily hog slaughter on record at 500,879 head. As worker absenteeism and plant shutdowns disrupted chain speeds drastically during the last week of April, daily kill dropped to as low as 267,367 head, nearly 47% off its peak.
It has been a slow but steady climb back to ‘normal’ slaughter levels. The improvement in production capabilities during the latest five weeks has helped nudge last week’s kill to over 2 million head. Early indications for this Saturday’s slaughter are pushing...
ANALYSIS: COVID 19 Rooted Chicken Production Cutbacks on Tap
Not a day goes by when the immediate and future potential impact of COVID-19 isn't central to dialogue...
UB Consulting Presents: The Other Side of COVID-19
The latest report from UB Consulting provides a look into what The Other Side of COVID-19 looks like for the protein industry.
Although each commodity’s foodservice dependence varies widely, the ripple effects across supply chains continue to be felt, from inconsistent supply availability and price volatility, rising unemployment and changing consumer behavior. UB Consulting has outlined the biggest impacts seen in the egg, red meat, chicken, and certain segments of the seafood value chain as well as a few things to watch out for as we move closer to the "other side" of this pandemic.
Click HERE to read this exclusive report...
ANALYSIS: Fresh Tom Breast Meat: A Seasonal Assessment
Following a sluggish start to this year’s meat trade environment, marketers are finally embracing the return of...
Webinar: UB Insights Into COVID-19 Impacts on Red Meat, Poultry
This exclusive UB Insights webcast, aired May 14, 2020, features Urner Barry experts discussing the volatility of the beef, pork, and poultry markets during the coronavirus pandemic. Featured are beef market reporter Gary Morrison, pork market reporter Russell Barton, poultry market reporter Russ Whitman, livestock staff writer Courtney Shum and moderated by editorial director Jamie Chadwick...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Exports Spring Forward as China Makes a Comeback
The latest release of the USDA’s export figures help to paint a strong underlying picture to our trade relations with key export partners, and marks a significant return of...
ANALYSIS: Seasonal Draw, or Supply Side Flaw?
As the immediate shock of COVID-19 begins to subside, market participants look to the stats in an attempt to...
ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Come Under Pressure as Retail Demand Slips, Supplies Mount
U.S. shell egg prices are coming under pressure once again as retail demand begins to ease and supplies become increasingly available. After holding steady for...
ANALYSIS: Maintaining Perspective on Chicken Price Changes
As the shock and awe caused by the rapid market appreciation begins to subside and acceptance kicks in, this week we thought it would be a good opportunity to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Production: As Goes One
Between sluggish foodservice and QSR demand patterns and the increased prevalence of plant worker absenteeism, it is safe to say...
ANALYSIS: Chicken Processors Coping with COVID-19 Related Set Backs
In light of the recent challenges that COVID-19 has brought upon the chicken industry, this week we thought it would be a good opportunity to check in on the supply side of the equation to...
ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: It’s a Matter of Perspective
COVID-19’s widespread impact on the protein market landscape has certainly tested the wits of turkey buyers and sellers...
ANALYSIS: Boneless Pork Loins Up 104%, 2.4x Higher than Chicken Breast
Boneless loins are currently experiencing a trifecta of bullish market factors: above average retail demand, significantly reduced slaughter schedules, and...
Is America Headed Towards a Meat Shortage?
Price gouging. Panic buying. Meat shortages. These phrases have dominated recent talk about the nation’s overall meat supply as a wave of plant closures and worker absenteeism rattle the supply chain and generate logistical hurdles. Increasingly, industry participants and consumers alike are uttering the unnerving question: Is America on the cusp of a nationwide meat shortage?
There are many factors at play when assessing the current supply and demand patterns in the midst of a pandemic. Notably, a second wave of panic buying, and the subsequent run-up in wholesale values, has recently...
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