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ANALYSIS: RTC Production: A Comparison Between Monthly and Weekly Data

As illustrated by our chart, monthly YTD ready-to-cook tonnage and the data derived from the weekly slaughter report have generally followed a similar rate of increase. The monthly data however, has consistently tended above the monthly RTC figures...

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Aug 22 9:45 AM, Urner Barry



ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings: A Prognosticator of Wing Performance?

As preseason football season gets underway, fans are beginning to flock to their local drinking hole to watch the game and enjoy America’s favorite finger food: chicken wings. Taking a look at inventory levels and price reaction in the period leading up to...

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Aug 16 8:28 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Thigh Meat and Boneless Pork Hams At a Crossroads

From an historical standpoint, marketers of turkey thigh meat and boneless pork ham are no strangers to some cross-protein rivalry...

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Aug 15 8:22 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Hog Slaughter

 

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Aug 12 3:45 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Cattle Slaughter

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Aug 12 3:37 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: “Smart” Poultry Houses Influential in Seasonally Heavy Bird Weights

When it comes to commodity valuation, there are numerous internal and external variables which have the capacity to influence the supply and demand sides of the equation...

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Aug 9 9:39 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Demand Drives YoY Export Advances

As evidenced by the USDA’s most recent turkey export data, June turned out to be a fruitful month for those on the sell side of the equation...

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Aug 8 8:45 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Automated Deboning Diluting Seasonal Volatility?

With the national average unemployment rate currently situated at 3.7%, it comes as no surprise that ongoing labor shortages have been a major source of frustration for chicken processors...

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Aug 2 8:38 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Adding a Spring to Turkey’s Summertime Stride

Following what many players would term as a sluggish start to this year’s seasonally anticipated turkey white meat rally, marketers are finally embracing the return of some noteworthy seasonal underpinnings...

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Aug 1 8:20 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Jul 30 2:31 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: YTD Headcount: It’s All About Efficiency

Following last week’s analysis, which investigated the year-over-year uptrend in both headcount and average live weight, this week, we delve into the individual bird weight classifications to shed some additional light on the recent surge in weekly RTC production figures...

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Jul 26 8:16 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: US Table Egg Flock Falls 14 Million Head Over Last 3 Months

The USDA’s Monthly Chicken and Eggs report, released Tuesday July 23rd, showed that at 327.31 million layers...

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Jul 25 8:24 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Tallying up Turkey Tonnage

Monday’s release of the latest Cold Storage Report closely aligns with the market undercurrent and trade sentiment about which Urner Barry has been reporting...

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Jul 25 8:21 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations For Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Jul 22 3:11 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Heavy Chickens and More of Them

The price depreciation that many key items within the chicken complex have exhibited this week has prompted players to search for both external and internal variables in an effort to shed some light on the recent price slump...

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Jul 19 8:21 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Bird’s Eye View of Poult Placement Figures

Monday’s release of the USDA’s Turkey Hatch Report continues to shed light on 2019’s declining poult placement trend...

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Jul 18 8:27 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings and Whole Wings: An Inverse Relationship

Counter to what historic seasonality suggests, the jumbo whole wing market has proven to be fairly steadfast following the “finger food”-oriented buying outreach of Q1...

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Jul 12 9:02 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: An Updraft in May’s Turkey Exports

By the looks of the USDA’s most recent data, May proved to be a lively month for those involved in turkey exports...

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Jul 11 9:00 AM, Urner Barry


REPORTER: Beef Demand Remains Strong in the Face of Growing Supplies 

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
 
 
It is incredible to see how beef continues to see strong demand throughout the world. On the domestic front, consumers are backed by the strength of the economy. The United States remains at record low unemployment, with the latest April reading at 3.6 percent. This has led to wage pressure and consumers have more money in their pockets to spend as a result. This is important as increased protein consumption...
 
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Jul 9 9:07 AM, Urner Barry


REPORTER: Pork: Turbulence Driven by African Swine Fever 

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
 
 
August 2018 marked the first reported case of African Swine Fever in China during this current outbreak. Since then, the virus has spread to every province of the country, resulting in massive livestock losses. This culling of the country’s most consumed meat has created uncertainty across all proteins, not just pork, for a number of reasons. For one, China consumes just 8% less pork than what all other countries combined produce. Also, the world’s combined pork exports would...
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Jul 9 8:56 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Jul 8 2:22 PM, Urner Barry


REPORTER: Sheepish Sales, Even In The Veal Market 

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.

Monthly lamb boxed cut prices in the first quarter of 2019 were mixed compared to the prior year. As of the second week in April, year-to-date lamb and mutton production numbers are roughly 4.8% lower. So far this year, USDA lamb imports have outpaced the equivalent month for last year. Demand for lamb is expected to be steady to slightly stronger as we progress through 2019.

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Jul 8 9:05 AM, Urner Barry


REPORTER: Supplies: It's a Matter of Balance 

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
 
 
So far this year has been a challenging one for chicken market participants and observers to definitively navigate. At the outset of 2019, concerns over the industry’s anticipated increase in processing capacity quickly fell by the wayside as livability challenges began to gradually emerge. Lighter than anticipated bird weights, in conjunction with seasonally stout foodservice, retail and further processing outreach efforts, helped to drive the value of several key items toward multi-year highs...  
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Jul 8 9:04 AM, Urner Barry


Reporter: How the U.S. Hog Industry has Changed 

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
 
 
Huge changes have occurred in U.S. swine production in the last 30 to 40 years, so many in fact that looking at the statistics alone would make one wonder if it’s even the same industry. And, well, in a sense it’s not...
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Jul 5 8:22 AM, General News


REPORTER: Internal Growth and Export Opportunities in the Mexican Beef Market 

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
 
 
Mexican beef production continuously increased each month throughout 2018. Last year’s annual beef production totaled 1.98 million metric tons, a 2.8% increase from 2017. Although production has continued to expand...
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Jul 5 8:21 AM, Urner Barry


REPORTER: Planting Season Gets Off to a Slow Start

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
 
 
The 2019 growing season got a rough start with wet weather hindering planting initiatives throughout much of the Midwest.
 
Corn planting can often be an exact science—the timing of which can have significant impacts on everything from...
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Jul 3 9:44 AM, Urner Barry


REPORTER: Big Cattle Numbers Seen in 2019 

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.
 
 
 
There are a lot of cattle on U.S. pastures and feedlots in 2019. Domestic cattle supplies have rebounded significantly in the last five years from the 60-year low hit in 2014. In fact, as of January 1 the herd was the largest since...
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Jul 3 9:42 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Jul 1 3:02 PM, Urner Barry


REPORTER: US Egg Prices Tracking Back Toward 2016 Lows

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2019 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine.

It seems there is never a dull year in the egg market. From diseases that rock the supply chain, promotions that excite consumers, changes in dietary guidelines, shifts in production standards, and countless other issues, markets are constantly being impacted by unexpected issues, both domestically
and abroad.

Over the last five years, the egg market has seen record highs and lows around the 2015 Avian Influenza Outbreak. Had it not been for these extremes, Urner Barry’s benchmark prices would have just broken all-time highs and lows in the last year alone. “Retail Wars” and international issues led to a record first quarter in 2018 and yet, a year later, egg prices struggled through the Easter marketing period, extending their decline...

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Jun 28 8:32 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Historic Glance at Boneless Breast Values…

From a historical perspective, medium-sized boneless breasts have retained an unwavering premium over their heavier-sized companions...

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Jun 28 8:24 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Mirrors Market Ups and Downs

Last Friday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report closely coincides with the day-to-day experiences and overall trade sentiment of most turkey market participants...

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Jun 27 8:55 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Jun 24 2:47 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: 2019 Chicken Market: Anything but Stagnant

In light of this week’s relatively subdued level of spot buying and selling activity, we thought it would be a good opportunity to get a bird’s eye view of some key market influencers and assess their impact on the supply and demand equation...

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Jun 21 9:40 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Rising Corn Values Drive Down Turkey Production Expectations

According to the June issue of the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report, turkey remains the only major protein forecasted to exhibit a YoY decline in annual production tonnage for 2019...

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Jun 20 9:28 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on Feed Costs

While it is undeniable that any number of internal and external factors have the potential to impact a given commodity, it can be argued that production levels are perhaps one of the most impactful variables in the supply and demand equation...

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Jun 14 8:34 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: April Turkey Exports: A Year Over Year Assessment

According to the USDA’s most recent data, total turkey exports for the month of April came in just shy of 25,200 metric tons; a substantial 8.2% rise over this time last year...

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Jun 13 9:03 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Jun 10 2:32 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

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Jun 10 2:32 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: An Ongoing Trend Toward Greater Efficiency

The most recent release of the USDA’s Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Report closely coincides with the general expectations and overall experiences of most market participants...

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Jun 7 8:48 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Tom Weights and Breast Meat Values

As marketers patiently await “deli season” and the improvement in buying outreach which typically comes along with it, they turn their attention to the supply side in an effort to further refine their market expectations...

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Jun 6 9:21 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Jun 3 3:21 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 6/08/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,417,000 head...

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Jun 3 3:21 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Shedding Some Light on Slaughter

With year-to-date chicken head slaughter coming in about 1% above 2018 levels, and in the absence of any major changes in demand patterns, it stands to reason that 2019’s stout marketing environment can at least partially be attributed to a decline in average live weights and the reduced production that comes with it...

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May 31 9:20 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Monthly Slaughter Report Helps to Clarify Cold Storage Plateau

Back in the end of March, Urner Barry called into question the accuracy of February’s inventory figures stating...

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May 30 9:09 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 6/01/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,109,000 head...

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May 28 3:23 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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May 28 3:17 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: ASF Update; Changing Global Protein Flows

At the time of this report, African Swine Fever continues to spread generally unchecked through China and has more recently expanded to the neighboring nations of Hong Kong, Vietnam and Cambodia, in addition to the revelation that North Korea has been dealing with it since at least February. The lastest official numbers from China admit a 20.8% drop in the April hog herd vs last year and sow losses of 22.3% year over year. As China is notoriously selective with the amount and accuracy of data that they provide the world, this situation could be...

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May 28 10:05 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Cold Storage Holdings Show Signs of Seasonality

Wednesday’s release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report helps to underpin many of the key market forces which remained evident throughout the month of April...

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May 24 9:26 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Mixed Showing for Chicken Exports

Between the African Swine Fever-related challenges on the pork side, the ongoing tariff scuffle between the U.S. and China, or the political tension south of the border, it’s safe to say that 2019 is proving to be an unsettled year for exporters...

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May 17 8:31 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

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May 13 4:13 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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May 13 4:13 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Heavier Bird Weights Turning the Tide Against Breast Meat Values?

While individual approaches to business can vary widely, a common variable which most players share an equal appreciation for is production...

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May 10 10:32 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Thigh Meat Gets a Much Needed Leg Up

As springtime continues to take form, perhaps the most intriguing of all the turkey commodity lines is thigh meat...

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May 9 10:27 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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May 6 3:10 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

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May 6 3:10 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

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Apr 29 3:31 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Apr 29 2:38 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Chicken Marketers Not Out of the Woods Yet

Although not immediately apparent by our chart, elevated public warehouse holdings continue to be a major cause for concern among chicken marketers...

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Apr 26 9:09 AM, Urner Barry


March Cold Storage Pressure Cooling Off

This month, we delve into most recent Cold Storage Report to see if turkey marketers can finally breathe a sigh of relief, or if the mounting pressure from the freezer doors remains intact...

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Apr 25 9:21 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: The Industry’s Ongoing Transition Towards A Heavy Bird Platform

The most recent release of the USDA’s Weekly Young Chickens Slaughtered Report may come as a surprise to some market participants, especially those who have been contending with lighter-than-expected birds recently...

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Apr 24 12:12 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

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Apr 22 3:19 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Apr 22 3:18 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey: Looking Down

An optimist in the turkey market might call our analysis “looking up”. This is because annual production is forecasted to come in below last year and that is considered a positive development for turkey processors...

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Apr 18 9:45 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/20/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,408,000 head...

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Apr 15 4:30 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Apr 15 4:30 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Chicken Weight Conundrum

With Q1 under the industry’s belt, it’s a good time to reflect back on the supply data to see if this year’s anticipated production advancements are beginning to show up in the books...

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Apr 12 9:46 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Tom Weights: A Growing Burden for Turkey Marketers

As participants gauge their expectations for the road ahead, headcount and average live weights are among the most heavily considered variables in play...

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Apr 11 11:34 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Apr 8 2:56 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/13/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,425,000 head...

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Apr 8 2:56 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Chicken Wing Price Reflection

As the second seasonally-anticipated rally for the chicken wing market begins to wind down, reflecting back, it has proven to be an eventful season for America’s favorite finger food...

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Apr 5 10:25 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Pork Pressure Prompts Promising Turkey Potential

From a historical perspective, marketers of turkey and pork are no strangers to some good ol’ fashioned cross-protein competition...

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Apr 4 8:42 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Apr 2 10:38 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 4/6/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,495,000 head...

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Apr 2 10:38 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Egg Inventories Hit Record Highs

National shell egg inventories were reported by the USDA at a record 1.610 million cases Monday, March 25th, climbing 9.1% from the week prior and 20.2% when compared to 3 weeks from Easter last year...

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Mar 29 8:42 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkey Freezer Stocks: Something to Gobble About

The latest release of the USDA’s Cold Storage Report has produced more questions than it has answers...

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Mar 28 9:10 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

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Mar 25 3:27 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Mile-High Chicken Market Assessment

By most anybody’s standards, the performance of the Q1 chicken market exceeded expectations...

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Mar 22 10:45 AM, Urner Barry


SNAP Participation Falls to Lowest Level Since 2009

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, otherwise known as SNAP, has been known to have significant influence on the protein market. Having been in existence since 1939, at least in its more primal stages, it’s safe to say that the longevity of this influence has run parallel with the growth and development of what we know to be today’s protein industry. This has become so evident that, like clockwork, just about everyone will expect a market variation or influence every “first of the month” or “week of the two's."

In March of 2019, SNAP participation went below 37 million people for the first time since September of 2009, almost a 10-year low. Many economists attribute this to...

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Mar 22 10:37 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Checking In On Q1 Performance

With spring now upon us, it seems like a good time to take a look at Q1 market performance.

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Mar 21 10:00 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

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Mar 18 3:16 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Mar 18 3:16 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: 2018 Becomes Record Year for U.S. Beef Exports

The USDA released export numbers for the last month of 2018. December exports for beef, including variety meat, was reported at 112.8 thousand metric tons compared to 113.3 metric tons for December 2017...

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Mar 18 9:27 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Q1’s Cold Storage Picture Beginning to Develop

After a great deal of anticipation, market participants and observers finally got a glimpse of January’s public warehouse holdings...

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Mar 15 10:04 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: A Push And Pull Between Turkey Live Weight and Headcount

The latest release of the USDA’s weekly slaughter report paints mixed picture for turkeys especially when it comes to average live weight and headcount figures...

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Mar 14 9:32 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Turkeys and the Big Chill

After a great deal of anticipation, about this time last week market observers finally caught a glimpse of December’s public warehouse holdings...

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Mar 7 9:16 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 3/09/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,543,000 head...

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Mar 4 1:36 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Mar 4 1:36 PM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: African Swine Fever in China; Outbreak Update

The outbreak of African Swine Fever in China has placed an ominous cloud of uncertainty over the global pork market, which could in turn impact other protein categories as well.

It cannot be overstated how big of a player China is in the pork market, as it is home to half of the globe’s hogs. At roughly 55 million metric tons, China’s domestic annual pork consumption is nearly as large as all other countries combined (49.7% of global pork consumption in 2018). With that in consideration, any threat to their supply of hogs is deemed quite critical because it has the potential to... 

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Feb 28 10:25 AM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Hog Slaughter

The Urner Barry hog slaughter poll for the week ending 3/02/19 resulted in an average industry participant response of 2,507,000 head...

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Feb 25 3:12 PM, Urner Barry


CHART: Industry Expectations for Weekly Cattle Slaughter

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Feb 25 3:03 PM, Urner Barry




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