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Fri. Feb 28, 2020

ANALYSIS: Freezer Burn

























USDA Announces Expanded Red Meat Access to China as Phase One Trade Deal Moves Forward

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced continued progress in the implementation of agriculture provisions in the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement.

The new actions are led by increased access for red meat and poultry into China. According to the statement, U.S. beef producers, for the first time since 2003, will have access to nearly all beef products into China.

An expansion of pork products that will be allowed into Chinese ports was also included in the...

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Mar 25 10:24 AM, General News



USMEF Statement on Expanded Access to China for U.S. Beef and Pork

The USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has updated its Export Library for China to reflect expanded access for U.S. beef and pork. These changes were among the provisions negotiated in the U.S.-China “Phase One” trade agreement.

U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Dan Halstrom issued the following statement:

"This is an exciting day for the U.S. beef and pork industries, which have waited a long time to have more meaningful and reliable access to China, and USMEF thanks USTR and USDA for their tireless efforts to negotiate and implement the...

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Mar 24 8:18 AM, General News


Rabobank: Coronavirus and African Swine Fever to Shake Up Global Poultry Markets

The outlook for global poultry in 2020 will be materially affected by the current coronavirus pandemic, and the ongoing African swine fever (ASF) challenges in the pork industry will bring additional complexity to global markets.

Rabobank expects a further drop in pork production in Asia this year, which could lead to potential growth in local poultry production and international trade, if rising supply chain challenges can be managed. As coronavirus is now expected to cause a global economic slowdown, poultry demand could...

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Mar 20 8:21 AM, General News


ANALYSIS: January Turkey Exports: Ups and Downs

Upon first glance, the latest turkey export data for the month of January appears to follow closely in the wake of December’s choppy year-end close...

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Mar 19 8:28 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: Keeping Tabs on YoY Chicken Prices

With Q2 just around the corner, we thought it would be a good opportunity to gain some perspective on the YoY performance of some key items within the chicken complex...

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Mar 13 10:21 AM, Urner Barry


47 Members of Congress Send Letter Requesting U.S. Chicken Market Access to the United Kingdom

Arkansas Representative Steve Womack (R, AR-3), along with 46 Members of Congress, yesterday sent a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer requesting that U.S. chicken products be included in any new trade agreement with the United Kingdom.

The letter specifically addresses the European Union’s long-standing, unscientific ban on U.S.-exported chicken due to an American practice of using chlorine during processing. The U.K. formally adhered to the E.U.’s food safety standards in 1997 and American chicken has been banned from entry since that time.

“With almost one of five pounds of chicken being exported, a robust and expanding overseas market is extremely important to the economic health and well-being of the U.S. chicken industry,” said National Chicken Council President Mike Brown. “Including U.S. chicken is critical in...

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Mar 12 8:29 AM, General News


Rapid Start to 2020 for U.S. Pork Exports; Beef Exports also Trend Higher

Following a record-breaking performance in 2019, U.S. pork exports maintained a torrid pace in January, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). January beef exports were also higher year-over-year, while exports of U.S. lamb trended lower.

January pork exports cooled slightly from the volume and value records established in December 2019, but still far exceeded year-ago levels. Both the January export volume of 273,603 metric tons (mt), up 36% year-over-year, and export value ($738.7 million, up 50%) were the second highest on record. Export value per head slaughtered was $62.53, up 40% from a year ago. Exports accounted for 29.8% of total pork production and...

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Mar 11 8:25 AM, General News


Coronavirus Impact on Imports Expected to Be Larger and Longer than Previously Expected

The coronavirus outbreak is expected to have a longer and larger impact on imports at major U.S. retail container ports than previously believed as factory shutdowns and travel restrictions in China continue to affect production, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“There are still a lot of unknowns to fully determine the impact of the coronavirus on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “As factories in China continue to come back online, products are now flowing again. But there are still issues affecting cargo movement, including...

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Mar 10 8:22 AM, General News


Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q1: China in the Front Seat for Beef Imports in 2020

We are yet again experiencing a major disruption to one of the world’s largest beef importers, China. “The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has had a major impact on foodservice and trade. With foodservice as the main channel for sales, beef is expected to feel the impact more than others. Indications from the 2003 SARS outbreak suggest that once the virus is contained, sales and trade should rebound quickly. However, the timeframe for control remains uncertain,” according to senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.

In other developments:

US trade deals

Progress was made on the USMCA, and the Japan/US trade deal was approved in December. These were closely followed by the signing of the phase-one US-China trade agreement in January. Although questions remain on...

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Mar 4 8:21 AM, General News


ANALYSIS: Freezer Burn

In light of the recent attention being placed on China, a central focus of chicken processors and exporters has been the back half of the bird, and with good reason...

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Feb 28 8:16 AM, Urner Barry


Coronavirus Hits Chinese Soy Supply Chain, Lowering Consumption and Import Needs

The outbreak of coronavirus (designated as Covid-19 by the WHO) will hit Chinese soy oil and soymeal consumption, primarily in Q1 and early Q2 2020. Barring an extreme escalation of the epidemic, both are expected to register a robust rebound in 2H 2020.

Due to weakened Chinese demand, strong competition from South America, and seasonal trade patterns, China’s import pace of US soybeans will remain slow in the coming months. Lower-than-previously-anticipated procurement of US soybeans, might run the risk of reigniting the trade war during the US election campaign.

This research is based on the information available to date. As the situation remains fluid, Rabobank is closely monitoring the developments and...

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Feb 27 10:30 AM, General News


NRF Says Consumers Continue to Drive Economy, Forecasts Retail Sales will Grow

The National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales during 2020 will increase between 3.5 percent and 4.1 percent to more than $3.9 trillion despite uncertainty from the lingering trade war, coronavirus and the presidential election.

“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “With gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence, we expect another healthy year ahead. There are always wild cards we cannot control like coronavirus and...

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Feb 27 8:14 AM, General News


Meat Institute Signs MOU with the British Meat Processors Association

With trade negotiations set to begin between the United States and the United Kingdom, the North American Meat Institute (Meat Institute) today announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the British Meat Processors Association (BMPA) to benefit members of each organization and to support and promote mutually beneficial regulations, standards and policies to enhance bilateral trade in meat and poultry products.

“Members of the Meat Institute and the British Meat Processors Association share many common goals, especially regarding food safety, sustainability, nutrition and worker safety,” said Meat Institute Senior Vice President for International Affairs Bill Westman. “As our governments begin trade talks, it is important to...

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Feb 26 8:24 AM, General News


USDA and USTR Announce Progress on Implementation of U.S.-China Phase One Agreement  

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced today that China has taken numerous actions to begin implementing its agriculture-related commitments under the landmark U.S.-China Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement on schedule. The agreement entered into force on February 14, 2020. 

These actions include:

•Signing a protocol that allows the importation of U.S. fresh chipping potatoes (U.S. Chipping Potatoes Protocol Announcement); 
•Lifting the ban on imports of U.S. poultry and poultry products, including pet food containing poultry products (Poultry and Poultry Products Announcement); 
•Lifting restrictions on imports of...

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Feb 25 9:23 AM, General News


NCBA Statement on Beef from Brazil

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) Senior Director, International Trade and Market Access, Kent Bacus today released the following statement in response to the U.S. Department of Agriculture restoring access to the U.S. for Brazilian beef:

“NCBA strongly supports science-based trade and the Trump Administration’s efforts to enforce science-based trade with all trade partners. But to be clear, NCBA has serious concerns about the re-entry of Brazilian beef to the U.S. market.

“NCBA has frequently questioned the lack of scientific evidence that was used to justify Brazil’s initial access to the U.S. market in 2016, and unfortunately, we were not surprised when Brazil forfeited its beef access to the U.S. in 2017 due to numerous food safety violations. NCBA praised Secretary Perdue for standing up for science-based trade and holding Brazil accountable for their numerous violations by...

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Feb 25 8:14 AM, General News


FSIS Lifts Suspension on Brazil’s Exports of Raw Intact Beef Products to the U.S.

FSIS takes very seriously the responsibility to ensure the safety of meat, poultry, and processed egg products for American consumers. FSIS recently conducted a targeted, on-site equivalence verifcation audit of Brazil’s raw intact beef products to verify the implementation of corrective actions in response to several audits and technical discussions since FSIS suspended the export of raw intact beef from Brazil in 2017.

FSIS uses a three-pronged approach to verify that a foreign country’s inspection system for imported meat, poultry, and processed egg products achieves an equivalent level of public health protection as the U.S. inspection system...

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Feb 24 8:36 AM, Urner Barry


ANALYSIS: And the Year-End Export Figures Are...

The most recent release of the USDA’s export data paints a fairly choppy year-end picture to the turkey side of the business...

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Feb 20 8:20 AM, Urner Barry


PODCAST: USMCA - What It Means for Protein

This week Michelle Klieger returns to the show to discuss the NAFTA replacement. She discusses the new opportunities for protein exporters and producers in the US as a result of the agreement and of course, China...

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Feb 11 10:33 AM, Urner Barry


February Retail Imports to See Larger Drop Amid Coronavirus

With coronavirus causing longer Lunar New Year shutdowns of factories in China, imports at major U.S. retail container ports are expected to see a sharper-than-usual drop this month, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“February is historically a slow month for imports because of Lunar New Year and the lull between retailers’ holiday season and summer, but this is an unusual situation,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Many Chinese factories have already stayed closed longer than usual, and...

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Feb 11 8:14 AM, Urner Barry


President Trump Announces Intent to Negotiate Trade Agreement with Kenya

President Donald J. Trump today announced the United States intends to initiate trade agreement negotiations with the Republic of Kenya following a meeting at the White House with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta.

“Kenya is a recognized leader across the continent, an important strategic partner of the United States, and there is enormous potential for us to deepen our economic and commercial ties,” said United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. “Under President Trump’s leadership, we look forward to negotiating and concluding...

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Feb 7 10:06 AM, General News


U.S. Pork Exports Record-Large in 2019, Approaching $7 Billion; Beef Export Value Tops $8 Billion

U.S. pork exports posted new volume and value records in 2019, reaching nearly $7 billion, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Exports of U.S. beef were below the previous year’s record levels, while lamb export volume was the second largest on record.

Pork exports soared to 282,145 metric tons (mt) in December, up 34% year-over-year and surpassing the previous high (set in November 2019) by 9%. Export value was $760 million, up a remarkable 44% from a year ago and breaking the previous record (also from November 2019) by 7%. These results pushed 2019 exports 10% above...

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Feb 7 8:16 AM, General News


Brazil Beef Exports Jump on Strong Chinese Demand

Brazilian beef exports rose by 9.84% in January driven by a surge in sales to China, which faces fallout from a deadly disease that decimated a major portion of its pig population and boosted demand for other meats, trade group Abiec said on Wednesday.

Brazil's beef exports totaled 135,375 tonnes in the first month of the year, generating sales of $633.25 million, Abiec said.

“This is a positive result and in line with our growth estimates for this year," Antônio Camardelli, president of Abiec, said in a statement.

Shipments to China alone were 53,200 tonnes, an increase of...

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Feb 6 8:54 AM, Urner Barry


African Swine Fever Shrinks Pork Production in China, Swells Demand for Imported Pork

Although the rapid spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) across China decimated the world’s largest swine herd in 2019, it has created significant export opportunities for the U.S. pork industry. In the United States, recent industry expansion and low prices helped the industry export more pork to China, despite high retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork.

After the first cases of ASF in China were reported in August 2018, the virus spread to every province by mid-2019. Assessments by industry observers suggest that the number of ASF outbreaks and losses of swine far exceeded officially reported numbers. As mentioned earlier, China’s swine herd was decimated—both by...

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Feb 5 11:48 AM, General News


China's Coronavirus Could Boost Brazil Meat Exports, CEOs Say

Brazil's largest meatpackers JBS SA and BRF SA said on Wednesday that the coronavirus outbreak could help boost Chinese demand for their products, as it fans concerns about domestic food safety in China.

However, one executive told Reuters that sales could be held back by aggressive demands for discounts from Chinese buyers.

BRF Chief Executive Officer Lorival Luz said on the sidelines of a conference in Sao Paulo that the epidemic could boost sales of foreign frozen and...

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Jan 30 8:27 AM, Urner Barry


President Trump Signs USMCA into Law at White House Ceremony

At a signing ceremony this morning, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement. President Trump described the deal as the "largest, fairest, most balanced and modern trade agreement ever achieved."  President Trump added that this is a colossal victory not only for farmers and ranchers, but American workers in all 50 states and beyond.

The USMCA is estimated to add 1.2 percent to the Gross Domestic Product and create countless jobs. President Trump said that this will make "Our blue-collar boom, which is beyond anybody's expectation, even bigger, stronger, and...

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Jan 29 11:44 AM, Urner Barry


Avian Flu Spreads to New Province in Poland, According to Poland’s Veterinary Services

The highly pathogenic avian flu virus (HPAI) that has been spreading in Eastern Europe since early 2020 has now reached a new province in Northern Poland, the country’s Chief Veterinary Officer said in a press release on January 27th.

“Outbreak No. 2020/15 was designated on a farm where 23,351 turkeys for fattening were kept, located in the town of Rąbity, in the commune of Zalewo, in the Iławski poviat, in the Warmian-Masurian province” according to the press release.

The HPAI of the H5N8 subtype was first diagnosed on December 30th, 2019 at a poultry farm in Poland in the Eastern Polish province of Lublin, which borders on both Belarus and Ukraine. About 15 cases have been reported in...

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Jan 29 10:21 AM, Urner Barry


China's Ministry of Commerce Guarantees Sufficient Pork Supply Ahead of New Year Celebrations

On January 25, 2020, China will celebrate the Lunar New Year. As the most important traditional festival for China, the celebration is dependent on preparations including increasing availability of various meats, organic vegetables, and imported fruits. After an outbreak of African swine fever decimated the Chinese hog herd, China has been gearing up for the holiday by releasing pork from state reserves and increasing imports of the most desired meat in the country.

According to an Urner Barry pork analysis, export demand reached record levels in November in anticipation of the Lunar New Year Holiday. In early November, the resumption of exports from Canada and China was announced, creating more tightness in the United States' domestic market as Canada shifted their exports from the U.S. and Mexico to China. By December, China's pork imports surged...

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Jan 24 11:48 AM, Urner Barry


Research and Markets' 2020 Study on China's Pork Import Market

According to Research and Markets' latest report on China's pork import market, China's annual pork consumption is around 55 million tons, and is growing slowly in recent years.

In 2018, the pork imports were less than 3% of the pork consumption. Rising pig breeding costs and stricter environmental policies have forced many small and medium-sized pig farms to close down, and swine fever occurs frequently. These factors discourage the growth of pork output in China.

It is expected that from 2020 to 2024, the import volume of pork and pig offal in China will continue to rise, and China's pork market will receive attention from...

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Jan 24 9:40 AM, General News


Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q1 2020: Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks

Rising disease pressures continue to challenge the global market and will remain the major change driver in global animal protein in 2020, according to Rabobank’s latest Pork Quarterly titled ‘Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks.’

“Although the severity of African swine fever’s (ASF) impact is subdued in some regions, the scope of the disease has expanded over recent months,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Animal Protein Analyst. “The ramifications in 2020 will lead to continuous caution on production expansion in some regions and higher import demand on the global balance sheet.” Several ongoing, regional trade-deal discussions will...

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Jan 22 10:10 AM, General News


African Poultry Sector Remains Strong Opportunity for Investors

According to a recent Rabobank report, the time is now for investors that are looking to stake their claim in the African poultry industry.

A report authored by Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst, Animal Protein, said that local and international investors are eyeing the steady growth for both the African poultry and egg industries over the past decade and see the region as a strong investment opportunity...

Rabobank’s initial report on investment opportunities in African poultry, “Time for Africa” was released in 2017, and Mulder provided an update on an opportunity...

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Jan 21 8:17 AM, Urner Barry


Retailers Welcome Phase One Trade Deal with China but Say Remaining Tariffs Must End

The National Retail Federation welcomed the signing of a “phase one” trade agreement between the United States and China but said work remains to be done to end the trade war between the two countries.

“NRF strongly supports the administration’s efforts to address China’s unfair trading practices but we hope this is the first step toward eliminating all of the tariffs imposed over the past two years,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The trade war won’t be over until all of these tariffs are gone. We are glad to see...

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Jan 17 8:16 AM, General News


Industry Applauds Senate Ratification of the USMCA 

The Senate passed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, by a bipartisan vote of 89-10. The USMCA will advance United States agricultural interests in two of the most important markets for American farmers, ranchers, and agribusiness. The agreement builds upon existing markets to expand U.S. food and agricultural exports while supporting food processing and rural jobs. Canada and Mexico are the first and second largest export markets for U.S. food and agricultural products, totaling more than $39.7 billion food and agricultural exports in 2018, supporting 325,000 American jobs. Now, the USMCA will be heading to President Trump's desk for his signature.

Sonny Perdue, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, said, "We’ve long waited for this day and now USMCA will finally head to the President’s desk. The passage of USMCA is great news for America’s farmers and ranchers. With Congressional consideration now complete...

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Jan 17 8:15 AM, Urner Barry


What the Trade Agreement with China Means for the Meat and Poultry Industry

The Phase One economic and trade agreement signed by the United States and China on January 15, 2020, will provide U.S. exporters of beef, pork, and poultry, as well as live breeding cattle with expanded access to China’s rapidly growing market.

Market Overview: As incomes rise in China, demand for protein in diets increases as well. Chinese demand for imported beef, pork, and poultry is growing at a rapid rate, made more acute due to domestic pork supply constraints in China as a result of the ongoing outbreak of African swine fever. When China partially re-opened its market to U.S. beef and beef products in 2017, following a 13-year ban, many unscientific restrictions remained, including...

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Jan 16 9:13 AM, General News


Industry Reacts to Phase One Trade Agreement with China 

President Donald Trump signed a Phase One trade agreement with China today. The agreement says that China will increase purchases of U.S. manufacturing, energy, and agricultural goods and services by at least $200 billion over two years. As part of the deal, the Trump Administration scrapped tariffs initially set to take effect in December, and agreed to cut tariffs on $120 billion in products to 7.5%. However, tariffs on another $250 billion in Chinese goods will remain in place for now. Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary, stated a second phase could include more tariff relief.

The National Cattlemen's Beef Association applauded the signing of the deal with China, saying the agreement will lay the groundwork for American-produced beef to be highly competitive in the world's most populous market. “The Phase One Agreement with China will be a game changer for the U.S. beef industry. For many years, Chinese consumers have been...

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Jan 16 8:21 AM, General News




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