The Retail Rundown: Cheaper Turkeys Hit Shelves Despite Wholesale Price Surge

This Thanksgiving, holiday shoppers might spot some relief: retail turkey prices have eased, even as wholesale values climb toward near-record highs.

Ongoing challenges, such as persistent bird flu outbreaks and relatively low hatch rates, have limited production all year, leaving supplies exceptionally thin ahead of the holiday. 

While retailers secure turkeys well in advance to build cold-storage inventories, frozen whole-bird stocks in 2025 remain near seasonal record lows, leaving little supply cushion...

The Retail Rundown: A Season of Plenty, Except for Turkey

For retailers, this year’s holiday season is shaping up to be one of plenty. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects November and December sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, underscoring consumers’ continued spending power.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

While foodservice outlets are poised to capture consumer traffic on hectic days, retail prepared foods and frozen entrées are well-positioned to compete for at-home dining occasions as shoppers seek convenient, time-saving meal solutions...

The Retail Rundown: Turkey Promotions Climb as Holiday Demand Takes Hold

Turkey ads now make up nearly 4% of protein features this week and are on pace to capture a larger share next week as seasonal demand gathers momentum. Beef holds 23.8% of ad space, pork accounts for 22.8%, and chicken eased to 19%—down one point from last week. Eggs have 3% of this week’s buying opportunities, up one point compared to the week prior.

Within the turkey category, ads for frozen whole birds and fresh or frozen parts are evenly split, each accounting for 28% of turkey features...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Wholesale Values Surge Amid Retail Strength and Bird Flu Caution

Cage-free wholesale values surged again this week as both retail strength and precautionary buying surrounding bird flu ahead of the peak baking demand period help to sustain momentum. Buyer activity along the West Coast intensified noticeably, giving the market its most active tone in months.

Demand along the West Coast has held firm as competitive shelf prices and consistent promotional activity continue to support consumer engagement. Several large-scale chains in the Golden State have maintained prices near $1.50/dozen for cage-free eggs...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Rush Builds Amid Tight Turkey Supplies

As November approaches, the holiday retail rush is underway, and all eyes are on the season’s centerpiece: turkey. Tight supplies and near-record wholesale prices have shaped this year’s turkey market, stirring concerns about Thanksgiving availability.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), or bird flu, has intensified supply pressures, with cold storage inventories at near historic lows. Many processors are reporting major production shortages heading into the holiday season as the number of turkeys harvested year-to-date hovers at an all-time low, according to Expana's market reporters...

ANALYSIS: Avian Influenza Outbreaks in EU Accelerate in 2025, Surpassing Previous Year's Pace

The European poultry sector faces mounting pressure from a resurgent wave of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), with outbreak frequency significantly exceeding 2024 levels and raising critical supply chain concerns across member states.

On October 7, 2025, Dutch authorities ordered the culling of 71,000 chickens at a northern Netherlands facility following confirmed H5N1 detection, marking the country's first outbreak since March. The Dutch government has refrained from implementing nationwide indoor confinement measures. However, an expert animal disease panel is convening for a comprehensive risk assessment...

ANALYSIS: EU Egg Product Market Faces Historic Highs Amid Tight Supply and Bird Flu Fears

As of mid-October 2025, the EU egg product market is under severe strain, with prices for dried whole egg, liquid, and dried yolk hitting record highs. A year of elevated shell egg costs, limited supply, and minimal inventory buildup has left the market exposed just as demand surges for the peak consumption season.

Unlike in previous years, the usual summer lull failed to ease prices, so September’s demand rebound only intensified pressure. Processors now face shrinking availability and soaring costs, particularly for...

ANALYSIS: Jumbo Boneless Breast Market Ends Q3 on a Rollercoaster of Prices

Jumbo boneless breast meat has had a rollercoaster of a year so far in the chicken market. Quotations started off the year only ten cents higher than the 5-year average, but by mid-April were more than $1.00 over the 5-year average and were only $0.28 or 9.3% under the seasonal high.

This was largely attributed to many participants in the fast-food industry building up large inventories of chicken in order to run chicken promotions later in the year as opposed to beef. At the same time, the industry was struggling with disease-related bird losses due to HPAI and avian metapneumovirus...

The Retail Rundown: Retail Promotions Pivot Toward Baking and Comfort Foods

By mid-October, grocery retailers are shifting their marketing focus toward fall comfort meals, baking, and holiday preparation.

Typically, retail egg sales see a seasonal lift as more consumers cook hot breakfasts at home. The onset of baking season further boosts demand, with more eggs being used in breads, pies, pastries, and other seasonal favorites.

In the shell egg market, Expana reports a mixed retail landscape—some retailers are seeing stronger demand as cooler weather sets in, while others note slower movement following lackluster promotional outcomes...

ANALYSIS: HPAI Turkey Update - Week of September 14th, 2025

Year-to-date (YTD) losses of turkeys due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have reached approximately 2.25 million birds in 2025. This represents a 71% increase year-over-year (Y-O-Y), but remains 65% below the peak loss levels experienced in 2022, when the outbreak first emerged. Of the turkeys impacted this year, commercial meat birds account for the vast majority (96%), with commercial breeder hens and breeder replacement hens comprising 3% and 1% respectively.

Geographically, the outbreak has affected 12 states to date in 2025—one fewer than the record YTD count but nevertheless reflecting a 33% increase YoY and an 8% decline from 2022 levels. The affected...

HPAI H5N1 Virus in Dairy Cattle – What We Know

In March 2024, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1), commonly referred to as bird flu, was confirmed in domestic US livestock for the first time in a dairy operation in Texas. Since then, the virus has spread to 1,080 dairy operations across 18 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Kansas, Idaho, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming.

Since the initial outbreak, cases in dairy cattle have declined significantly, though USDA confirmed two new cases in September 2025. Government agencies continue to emphasize that the national food supply is safe...

The Retail Rundown: Summer Travel Drives Foodservice Gains as Retailers Compete for Shoppers

Foodservice is in full swing this summer, fueled by warm weather and vacation season as consumers hit the road and dine out. This Fourth of July, AAA estimated a record 72.2 million Americans traveled domestically—a 2.4% increase from last year and 7 million more than in 2019.

“This year, we're seeing strong demand for road trips, flights, and cruises, especially with the holiday falling on a Friday,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of AAA Travel.

With so much consumer attention on travel and dining out, food...