Easter Spending Expected to Reach a Record $24.9 Billion

Consumer spending on Easter is expected to reach a record total of $24.9 billion this year, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The amount surpasses the previous record of $24 billion set in 2023. On a per-person basis, shoppers are budgeting a record high of $195.59, up from the previous record of $192.01 in 2023.

“While economic uncertainty remains on the minds of many, consumers are still focused on holiday celebrations like Easter,” NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said. “Holidays provide an important opportunity...

NRF Forecasts 4.4% Annual Retail Sales Growth with New Economic Model

The National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales in 2026 will grow by 4.4% over 2025 to $5.6 trillion, based on a newly enhanced forecasting approach developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, one of the world’s leading independent economic advisory firms. The announcement was made during NRF’s sixth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event, which examines the health of American consumers and the retail industry.

“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said...

Import Cargo Volume Expected to Be Down in First Half of 2026, But Too Soon to Tell Impact from Iran

Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain below last year’s levels for the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, but it is too soon to gauge the impact of the conflict in Iran, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers...

NRF Foundation and PepsiCo Foundation Launch Retail Training Fund to Advance Career Readiness

The National Retail Federation Foundation and the PepsiCo Foundation today announced the launch of the NRF Foundation Retail Training Fund, a new partnership designed to strengthen career readiness and economic mobility by expanding access to essential retail skills training and credentials.

The PepsiCo Foundation intends to contribute $1 million over three years to catalyze this transformative initiative. The fund will provide critical support to workforce development organizations, community colleges and select educational institutions to equip individuals with the skills and credentials needed to secure meaningful employment...

Industry Responds to US Supreme Court Decision Overturning Trump’s Emergency Tariffs

The US Supreme Court’s decision Friday to overturn Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs prompted swift reaction from businesses and trade associations across multiple sectors. The ruling removes a key pillar of the administration’s trade policy and could trigger a complex process to unwind the levies and issue refunds.

Here’s the response from industry groups:

David French, Executive Vice President of Government Relations, The National Retail Federation:

“The Supreme Court’s announcement today regarding tariffs provides much-needed certainty for US businesses and manufacturers, enabling global supply chains to...

NRF Responds to Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs

The National Retail Federation today issued the following statement from Executive Vice President of Government Relations David French in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling regarding the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs.

"The Supreme Court’s announcement today regarding tariffs provides much-needed certainty for U.S. businesses and manufacturers, enabling global supply chains to operate without ambiguity. Clear and consistent trade policy is essential for economic growth, creating jobs and opportunities for American families...

CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor’s January Data Shows Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain

Retail sales saw a moderate monthly increase and strong year-over-year gains in January, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by NRF.

“Consumers demonstrated continued resilience in January, showing moderate spending growth on the heels of record-high spending during the holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “This was the fourth consecutive month that sales rose from the month before, and year-over-year gains were particularly strong. Consumer spending continues to drive the broader economy forward, supported...

Import Cargo Volume Expected to See Year-Over-Year Drop During First Half of 2026

Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see a significant year-over-year decline during the first half of 2026 as the impact of tariffs continues, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The situation underscores the need...

NRF Renews Call to Pass Swipe Fee Legislation

The following statement may be attributed to National Retail Federation following the reintroduction of the Credit Card Competition Act.

“NRF commends Senators Roger Marshall, R-Kan., and Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Representatives Lance Gooden, R-Texas, and Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., for their steadfast leadership in challenging the credit card swipe fee duopoly. The Credit Card Competition Act is essential to leveling the playing field for millions of American businesses that currently lack any control over the non-negotiable fees tied to every card transaction.

“By fostering much-needed competition, this bipartisan legislation will provide direct relief to both retailers and consumers...

A Record 159 Million Consumers Expected to Shop on Super Saturday

An estimated 158.9 million consumers plan to shop on the last Saturday before Christmas, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure is up from 157.2 million shoppers last year and surpasses the previous record of 158.5 million in 2022.

“As the final Saturday before Dec. 25, Super Saturday is a significant shopping event for both consumers and retailers,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. “This year’s event falls only five days before the Christmas holiday, and...

NRF Expects Holiday Sales to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025

The National Retail Federation today released its annual holiday forecast, predicting retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024. That translates to total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue...

Father’s Day Spending to Reach Record $24 Billion

Father’s Day spending is expected to reach a record $24 billion this year, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure is up from last year’s $22.4 billion and exceeds the previous record of $22.9 billion in 2023.

“Americans are embracing meaningful traditions and holidays, and this Father’s Day, spending on gifts and other holiday items is expected to reach record levels,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine...