The Retail Rundown: Cheaper Turkeys Hit Shelves Despite Wholesale Price Surge

This Thanksgiving, holiday shoppers might spot some relief: retail turkey prices have eased, even as wholesale values climb toward near-record highs.

Ongoing challenges, such as persistent bird flu outbreaks and relatively low hatch rates, have limited production all year, leaving supplies exceptionally thin ahead of the holiday. 

While retailers secure turkeys well in advance to build cold-storage inventories, frozen whole-bird stocks in 2025 remain near seasonal record lows, leaving little supply cushion...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Rush Builds Amid Tight Turkey Supplies

As November approaches, the holiday retail rush is underway, and all eyes are on the season’s centerpiece: turkey. Tight supplies and near-record wholesale prices have shaped this year’s turkey market, stirring concerns about Thanksgiving availability.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), or bird flu, has intensified supply pressures, with cold storage inventories at near historic lows. Many processors are reporting major production shortages heading into the holiday season as the number of turkeys harvested year-to-date hovers at an all-time low, according to Expana's market reporters...

ANALYSIS: HPAI Turkey Update - Week of September 14th, 2025

Year-to-date (YTD) losses of turkeys due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have reached approximately 2.25 million birds in 2025. This represents a 71% increase year-over-year (Y-O-Y), but remains 65% below the peak loss levels experienced in 2022, when the outbreak first emerged. Of the turkeys impacted this year, commercial meat birds account for the vast majority (96%), with commercial breeder hens and breeder replacement hens comprising 3% and 1% respectively.

Geographically, the outbreak has affected 12 states to date in 2025—one fewer than the record YTD count but nevertheless reflecting a 33% increase YoY and an 8% decline from 2022 levels. The affected...

Brazil Confirms First Bird Flu Outbreak on Commercial Poultry Farm in Nearly 20 Years 

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) confirmed on Friday, May 16 an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in a breeder facility for commercial poultry. The outbreak was detected on May 15 in the municipality of Montenegro, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where one of the largest poultry production facilities in the country is located.  

“This is the first HPAI outbreak detected in Brazil’s commercial poultry farming system,” Mapa said, and added that containment and eradication measures...

The Retail Rundown: Cold Weather Influences Demand

As February winds down, grocers are looking ahead to the arrival of spring and warmer weather, which typically sparks renewed retail demand after a slower start to the year.

For now, wintry weather remains in full blast, with record-breaking cold temperatures and heavy snow impacting the Central and Eastern US this week. These conditions could support continued retail demand for items like eggs, which are seeing strong consumer interest despite rising shelf prices. However, the extreme cold may not be as favorable for meat consumption, especially in southern regions accustomed to year...

The Retail Rundown: Record Championship Game Viewership Expected to Drive Food Sales

As January comes to a close, grocers are actively preparing for the year's first major food-buying event, the pro-football championship game in New Orleans.

With a record-breaking audience expected to tune in to the big game on Sunday, February 9, retail and foodservice sectors anticipate a boost in sales as consumers indulge in game-day finger foods.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), an estimated 203.4 million U.S. adults will tune in with total spending projected to reach $18.6 billion...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Holiday Slowdown Influences January Spending 

January typically marks a slowdown in consumer spending as households transition from the holiday season to their regular routines.

Early in the month, retailers experience a short-lived boost in sales, driven by replenishment efforts after the holiday food rush. As schools reopen and guests leave, families restock essentials for breakfast, lunch, and weeknight meals.

This restocking coincides with New Year’s resolutions, especially those focused on healthier eating. Consequently, shoppers gravitate toward the perimeter of the stores where fresh items, including produce, proteins, and dairy, are featured. Although retail...

The Retail Rundown: Diving into December Deals

With the year-end holidays soon approaching, shoppers are eagerly diving into December deals. Retailers aim to capitalize on the season's spending surge with enticing offers on everything from festive foods to decadent desserts, decor, and other holiday items. 

Consumer spending on winter holidays is projected to hit a record-breaking $902 per person this year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This figure marks a $25 increase from 2023 and surpasses the previous record set in 2019 by $16...