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The NPD Group: Restaurant Industry Witnesses Stability Following Myriad of Headwinds

A pandemic, labor shortages and record inflation are just a few of the challenges that the foodservice industry has faced since early 2020.

The industry persevered and The NPD Group believes calmer seas may be ahead. Findings from The NPD Group show that U.S. commercial foodservice customer traffic to restaurants and other foodservice outlets ended 2022 flat compared to a year ago. Consumer spending at foodservice outlets was up 4%, thanks to higher prices.

“Looking forward to 2023, we anticipate improvements in supply chain disruptions, inflation deceleration...

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Feb 1 9:25 AM, SeafoodNews



U.S. Futures Edge Lower Ahead of Earnings, Fed Meeting

U.S. futures edged lower early Monday as traders brace for a potential interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is convening on Tuesday and Wednesday. Economists expect the central bank to raise rates by one-quarter of a percentage point as part of its ongoing effort to tame inflation.

The January 2023 CPI data is scheduled for release on February 14 at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. The most recent CPI data reported inflation at 6.5% in December, the smallest annual increase since October 2021. The core CPI rose 0.3% last month following a 0.2% gain in November...

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Jan 30 9:05 AM, UB Newswires


UB Consulting: Why the Rise in Egg Prices?

The rise in grocery prices has been a topic of conversation for much of the past year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer price index report highlighted this. In 2022, the average year-over-year increase in the food-at-home index was 11.4 percent. More recently, however, heightened attention has been drawn to the price of eggs at retail—a situation that has left many consumers scratching their heads, asking why eggs are so costly nowadays.

For many consumers, egg prices were of little thought – a relatively inexpensive...

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Jan 20 7:52 AM, Urner Barry


UB Consulting: Labor, Inflation, & Stagflation - What Does it Mean for Protein Commodity Markets?

The current state of the economy has been a topic of concern for much of 2022. And to some degree, rightly so. It has been no secret that living costs have increased throughout the year, with consumers experiencing inflation levels not seen in over 40 years. Fear of recession continues as consumer sentiment hovered around all-time lows for much of the year. Despite the negative attitudes around the market, the economy has been resilient on the labor front, recording low unemployment figures...

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Jan 6 8:01 AM, General News


NRF Economist Says Balance Between Inflation and Interest Rates is Key to Avoiding Recession

It’s too soon to say whether the Federal Reserve’s efforts to reduce inflation will lead to a recession, but continuing interest rate hikes increase the chances, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“This year starts with the possibility of easing inflation but also uncertainty,” Kleinhenz said, referring to the interest rate hikes. “There is no easy fix for inflation, and the Fed’s job of trying to bring down rising prices without damaging the labor market or the rest of the economy is not...

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Jan 4 8:08 AM, General News


How 10 of the Most-Read Stories of 2022 Capture the Year in Food

Urner Barry, the leading provider of food industry market intelligence for over 160 years, reviews the top stories of 2022—a year which featured countless disruptions and global shocks to supply and demand.

Featuring coverage of the Russia-Ukraine war; high path avian influenza, inflation, trade, and more. Read the most popular stories  published exclusively by Urner Barry in the past year...

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Dec 29 8:05 AM, Urner Barry


Technomic Releases 2023 Foodservice Trend Predictions for Canada and the Broader Global Market

Technomic released its latest Canada foodservice trends forecast, What We Foresee for 2023, sharing predictions for the upcoming year, as well as the 2023 Global Restaurant Trend Forecast, which dives into trends on a global scale. As was the case in the U.S., challenges such as inflation, labor and supply disruptions impacted foodservice across the globe. While the industry looks to recover, we will see varying strategies from country to country that tap into menu innovation, sustainability, technology and more, as methods to counteract pandemic-related hurdles...

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Dec 16 8:59 AM, General News


Mintel Releases 2022 APAC Food and Drink Landscape

Mintel, the experts in what consumers want and why, has today released the new edition of APAC Food and Drink Landscape. Centred on three themes: Inflation and ValuePhysical and Mental Wellness and The Next Gen of Sensory Experiences, it explores the latest consumer trends and market developments in the region’s food and drink industry over the last 12 months.

Jolene Ng, Senior Global Food and Drink Analyst, Mintel, discusses strategies for brands to help APAC consumers manage the rising cost of living as value becomes the primary motivation for their purchasing...

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Dec 7 9:34 AM, General News


NRF Reiterates White House Call for Congressional Action to Avoid Rail Strike

The National Retail Federation today issued the following statement from President and CEO Matthew Shay following the White House’s call for immediate congressional intervention to avoid a rail strike and subsequent shut down of the U.S. freight rail system. The directive comes as the cooling off period expires Dec. 8 and railroads begin to suspend operations ahead of a labor strike.

“The freight rail system is an integral part of America’s transportation system, moving cargo to communities in every corner of the country every day..."

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Nov 29 9:32 AM, General News


With Food Prices Rising, Consumers Pull Back on Other Retail Spending, Reports NPD

Pre-holiday declines in general merchandise sales emerge as grocery spending continues to rise

U.S. general merchandise retail sales revenue declined during the three weeks ending November 5, 2022. Year-over-year sales revenue in October fell 5% below a year ago, followed by a 14% decline in the first week of November. Several factors contributed to declining sales, with the rising cost of living at the forefront, according to The NPD Group, which recently merged with Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) to create a leading global technology...

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Nov 16 9:15 AM, General News


Canadians Unwilling to Give up Dining out, Vacation, & Streaming TV Service Despite Strong Inflation

A new Service Line Warranties of Canada (SLWC) survey of Canadian homeowners examined the impact inflation is having on the Canadian home with almost 90% of respondents reporting that inflation is impacting their household budget. More than 60% said that the higher prices that have resulted from inflation has caused them to put off home repairs, renovations or upgrades.

The survey also looked at what Canadians are most willing to give up – or conversely, least willing – to help balance their budgets. Dining out, vacation, and streaming...

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Nov 16 8:59 AM, General News


Kroger Promises a Thanksgiving Fresh for Everyone

The Kroger Co., America's grocer, today shared its efforts to cushion customers from the impacts of inflation as they prepare holiday meals, including a zero-compromise shopping guide with meal options that can feed 10 people for as little as $5 per person. The grocer, who estimates the cost of turkey has risen 20 cents per pound this year, will not shift the rising cost to customers.

"At Kroger, we are committed to making the holiday season memorable and accessible for everyone," said Stuart Aitken, Kroger Senior Vice President and Chief Merchant...

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Nov 15 9:30 AM, General News


France Foodservice: The Gap is Widening Between the Recovery in Spending, Boosted by Inflation

The NPD Group forecasts a 2022 market down 5% in spending and 9% in visits, compared to 2019

The average ticket has jumped by 7% since 2019, all consumption occasions combined in fast food and table catering

Four out of 10 French people say they will go to a restaurant less often in the coming months

The French preserve their family outings

On the occasion of the publication of a survey dedicated to out-of-home catering*, The NPD Group , which recently merged with Information...

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Nov 9 8:11 AM, General News


What We Foresee for 2023 - Technomic

It’s a tough time for restaurants, no doubt. The return to sustained normalcy that consumers and operators were anticipating after COVID-19 has been stalled by economic headwinds. Although supply chain problems appear to be receding, mainly because operators have solved for handling shortages and delays, inflation and the specter of recession are putting forth new hurdles for operators to jump over after already being depleted by the last couple years of the pandemic. While signs point to a challenging beginning of the new year, the latter part of 2023 should brighten as we...

 

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Nov 2 8:56 AM, General News


China Food & Agribusiness Quarterly – Q4 2022

China is facing sharp economic growth slowdown due to macroeconomic and geo-political challenges around the world, the real estate market slowdown, and ongoing Covid-led lockdowns. In Q2 2022, China’s GDP growth recorded only 0.4% YOY, according to the National Statistics Bureau. Rabobank is forecasting China GDP will only grow at 2.8 % for year 2022.

In August, consumer confidence indicators (CCI) are hitting historic lows, at 91.8. CCI is less likely to improve in the short term, given the current geopolitical turmoil, the ongoing zero-Covid policy in China, and growing fears of...

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Oct 26 9:30 AM, General News


ANALYSIS: EU Shell-Egg Prices Climb to New Record-Highs as Bird Flu Decimates Flock

The European shell-egg market rose to record-high levels this week, as strong demand and inadequate supplies continue to leave processors with limited access to raw material...

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Oct 11 8:46 AM, Urner Barry


NRF Says Consumers Still Spending Despite Worries Over Inflation and Interest Rates

Consumers remain worried about high inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes intended to bring inflation under control, but neither has stopped them from spending, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The economic situation in the United States is unsettling,” Kleinhenz said. “Consumer confidence is down, consumer spending’s rate of growth has slowed, and economists and consumers alike are worried about the possibility of a recession, all reflecting persistently high inflation and rising interest rates. Nonetheless, spending continues to grow, and many economists say a..."

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Oct 4 8:00 AM, General News


Just Ahead of Thanksgiving, Record Turkey and Egg Prices Indicate Strain on Poultry Sector

The effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), inflation and more in turkey and other poultry markets

Fall has arrived and Thanksgiving is just around the corner. As many begin planning for the holiday meal, one of the questions being asked is, “Will there be enough turkeys to go around for Thanksgiving?” There are many factors fueling this question. High prices, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and inflation have garnered attention from consumers and media nationwide. This Market Intel will address the current issues influencing the turkey industry and what consumers can expect as we edge closer to Thanksgiving and beyond...

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Sep 30 9:57 AM, General News


Poultry Quarterly Q4 2022: Keeping Chicken Affordable in Times of Major Cost and Supply Challenges

The outlook for the global poultry industry is for strong market conditions, despite ongoing operational challenges.

Report summary

The outlook for the global poultry industry in Q4 2022 and early 2023 remains strong, despite the big challenges across global poultry as well as some recent setbacks in North America. From a market perspective, a weaker economic climate with pressure on spending power will lead to more price-driven consumer behavior, which supports poultry consumption as it is the cheapest meat protein option...

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Sep 27 8:00 AM, General News


Foodservice Update Q3 2022: Revisiting Growth Perspectives

The writing is on the wall: economic growth is in jeopardy due to macroeconomic challenges around the world. From severely high natural gas prices in Europe, which affect everything from fertilizer prices to milk powders, to a housing crisis, and continued partial lockdowns in China. Coupled with rising interest rates, softening equity markets, and negative real wage growth, consumer confidence surveys unsurprisingly outline a worsening outlook for demand. It is likely that the US and Europe will both be entering a recession over the next 12 months.

Report summary

In Europe and the...

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Sep 21 8:00 AM, General News


August Retail Sales Supported by Job and Wage Gains Amid Continued Inflation

Consumers’ willingness to spend overcame inflation again in August as more jobs and higher wages helped ease some of the pressure of continuing high prices, the National Retail Federation said today.

“August retail sales show consumers’ resiliency to spend on household priorities despite persistent inflation and rising interest rates,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “As we gear up for the holiday season, consumers are seeking value to make their dollars stretch. Retailers have been hard at work managing their supply chains and holiday inventories to provide..."

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Sep 19 8:00 AM, General News


Brandcrush Expands Solution to U.S. Grocery Retailers

Today, Australia-owned omnichannel media platform Brandcrush announced its expansion in the U.S. market to help grocery retailers and CPG brands drive growth with efficient, centralized media management as the $190 billion retail media market booms worldwide. The U.S. expansion into grocery retail follows Brandcrush's success in Australia and with global D2C retailers, propelled by global businesses' urgent need to modernize their media practices to unlock new revenue, protect margins and grow amid rising inflation.

Brandcrush closes the adtech gap in retail media, offering a unique solution for grocery retailers...

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Sep 16 8:00 AM, General News


Lean Hog Futures Surge Despite Sell-Off in Outside Markets Tuesday

U.S. stocks plummeted on Tuesday following the latest CPI data, which showed larger than anticipated inflation numbers despite declining gas prices. 

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation rose 0.1 percent in August, contrary to expectations for a month-over-month decline in inflation from July to August after going unchanged in July. 

The BLS reported that annual inflation declined for a second consecutive month but remained historically high at 8.3 percent. The food index increased 11.4 percent over the last year. This was the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979.

The Dow declined nearly 4% while the Nasdaq shaved off 5.2%. The S&P 500 fell 4.3%. Tuesday marked the worst day for the three indices since June 2020. Economists are concerned that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further to combat ongoing inflationary pressures...

 

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Sep 14 9:12 AM, UB Newswires


IRI Releases Insights on August Food Inflation and Impact on Consumer Shopping Behavior

Information Resources, Inc. (IRI®), which recently merged with The NPD Group to create a leading global technology, analytics and data provider, today released a new report, August 2022 Price Check: Tracking Retail Food and Beverage Inflation, with insights about food inflation and its impact on consumer shopping behavior. The insights leverage the latest point-of-sale data for August 2022 and include data covering all U.S. food channels, including e-commerce.

August data shows that prices of consumer goods remain elevated across categories...

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Sep 13 8:05 AM, General News


Restaurant365 Data Reveals Increase in 2022 Mid-Year Sales

Restaurant365, the leading all-in-one restaurant enterprise management software, reported that demand remained strong for restaurants in the second quarter of 2022, citing a 12% increase in its customers' sales from Q1 to Q2, despite the challenges of inflation and rising food costs.

"As economists discuss a potential economic slowdown, restaurants may not yet feel impacted because their sales continue to grow," stated Tony Smith, CEO and co-founder of Restaurant365. "A decline is still a very real possibility, so now is the best time for restaurants to take action..." 

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Sep 9 8:00 AM, General News


Import Slowdown Continues as Fed Tries to Rein in Consumer Demand

With inflation continuing and the Federal Reserve hoping to cool demand through higher interest rates, imports at the nation’s major container ports are expected to fall below last year’s levels for the remainder of 2022, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Consumers are still buying, but the cargo surge we saw during the past two years appears to be slowing down,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Cargo volumes are solidly..."

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Sep 8 8:00 AM, General News


Beef Quarterly Q3 2022: Leaning Into the Trimmings Trade

The global beef market remains strong. Most beef retail prices (in domestic currencies) continued their upward trend in Q2 or remained steady. Although Q2 prices did not rise much above Q1, most are sitting between 5% and 11% higher than Q2 2021.

Meanwhile, evidence of declining consumer confidence in the face of slowing economies and rising inflation is building. In general, beef markets are resilient to changes in economic conditions. However, we see movement within supply channels and price points that tend to favor cheaper...

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Aug 29 9:19 AM, General News


Consumers Back to Eating at Home, Eyeing Bargains as Costs Continue to Rise

During COVID-19, consumers opted to cook at home, citing concerns surrounding the virus and a new work-from-home lifestyle, making prep more manageable.

Essentially over the past year, consumers have flocked to restaurants again. However, inflation has paused the recovery in the foodservice sector and consumers are deciding to save some cash and cook more meals at home again, according to The NPD Group (NPD) and Information Resources, Inc. (IRI).

“To offset rising food costs, consumers are bargain hunting when...

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Aug 24 10:04 AM, General News


Lower-income Households Hardest Hit by Inflation

Historically, the spending gap between higher- and lower-income households is more pronounced in times of high inflation. With food inflation at a 40-year high, the gap has widened again, and lower-income households are shifting their at- and away-from-home eating behaviors to stretch their food dollars. Eating more frozen and shelf-stable foods, using less expensive and private label brands, and cutting back on restaurant visits, are among the ways lower-income households are managing their food spending, reports The NPD Group, which recently merged with Information Resources...

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Aug 18 8:00 AM, General News


This Week in Retail: Reviewing the Chicken Complex; CPI Update

This week in retail, we’ll take a deeper dive into the retail chicken landscape ahead of the approaching NFL season, which officially kicks off in four weeks.

Chicken currently ranks fourth in protein buying opportunities with 16.4%. Seafood, beef, and pork hold the top three spots, respectively.

Urner Barry’s Weekly Retail Feature Chicken Index is $2.96 per pound this week, up 10% from the 5-year average of $2.69 per pound. 

Within the chicken complex, boneless skinless breasts hold the most ad volume at 42.5%. Drumsticks are the next highest featured item with 15.5% of total chicken ads...

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Aug 11 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


Canadian Restaurant Industry Begins Its Steady Recovery in the Second Quarter of 2022

Dine-in restaurant visits grow by triple-digits

With the COVID public health restrictions lifted early in 2022, the Canadian restaurant industry began recovering from the steep declines it experienced during the pandemic lockdown periods. The industry finished the second quarter ending June with physical and online visits up 17% compared to a year ago, 2% below the traffic level in the second quarter of 2019 before the pandemic, reports The NPD Group. Restaurant customer spending, which, in addition to increased visits, reflects higher costs, grew by...

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Aug 10 8:23 AM, General News


Restaurant Visits Drop Amid Inflation, Higher Menu Prices

U.S. consumers decided to limit their trips to restaurants during the second quarter of 2022, reported The NPD Group.

Inflation and the rise in menu prices led to a 2% dip in physical and online restaurant traffic when compared to a year ago and down 6% below the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019.

“Consumers continue to deal with rising inflation and higher prices. We see three ways consumers respond to higher menu prices. They trade down to lower-priced items, cut back on the number of items ordered, or reduce restaurant...

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Jul 28 9:27 AM, General News


Consumers Rely on Chicken Even as Inflation Affects Prices

While consumers average rating for their current financial situation is in the middle between “poor” and “excellent,” 87 percent are buying more or the same amount of fresh chicken now compared to six months ago, according to research presented today at the 2022 Chicken Marketing Summit.

The National Chicken Council (NCC) and WATT Global Media presented the results of a study that focused on current and anticipated U.S. consumer behavior, specifically, consumption of fresh chicken. The results suggest opportunities for chicken to maintain market share. IRI provided supporting data from its...

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Jul 28 8:04 AM, General News


Global Pork Quarterly Q3 2022: ASF, Inflation, & Policies Challenge Growth While Trade Odds Rise

Global pork trade should pick up in the second half of 2022. A slight easing of feed costs and resilient consumer demand are improving market prospects. Still, challenges to growth remain as African swine fever continues to spread and inflation impacts trade policies.

Feed and energy costs are offering a break, but not quite relief. Feed input prices have softened in some markets but are expected to stay relatively strong for the rest of 2022. This will lessen the pressure on producers to some extent...

 

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Jul 27 9:12 AM, General News


Retailers Welcome Action But Say House Bill Fails to Create a Uniform National Privacy Law

The National Retail Federation called on the House to move cautiously on federal privacy legislation, saying a measure approved today by the Energy and Commerce Committee fails to establish a single national standard for U.S. data privacy law.

“We appreciate that the committee has worked tirelessly to improve this bill during the subcommittee and full committee processes,” NRF Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French said. “The legislation adopted today appropriately revised a provision to safeguard customer loyalty programs that help make everyday necessities..."

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Jul 22 9:13 AM, General News


REPORTER: How Brand Loyalty is Being Affected by Inflation

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2022 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine. Want a FREE subscription? Click HERE.

With inflation causing grocery prices to rise, customers may be swapping out their usual brands for the more inexpensive options on the shelves. This is leading some to question customer loyalty to brands and how brands can keep shoppers returning to them.

The rise in grocery prices is causing consumers to find smarter ways to shop and save. Brands with customer loyalty rewards, promotions, and discounts have a...

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Jul 22 1:36 AM, Urner Barry


The Current State of the Economy - Optimism or Recession?

For the past couple of months, the nation has been tuning in once a month at 8:30 am EST for the reading of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Each month, numbers have indicated levels of inflation not seen in decades. Headlines have grabbed the attention of everyone, causing concern and fear for potential recession. But how concerned should market participants be with the current state of the economy...

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Jul 21 8:22 AM, Urner Barry


Pork Checkoff: Mixed Signals in the Market as Some Items Struggle, Others Trade Firm

The cure for high prices is high prices — lack of features and ample inventory cause prices to adjust and create future opportunities.

Highlights
• Following the record-breaking levels of a year ago, backribs are now at the lowest levels of the past five years. Prices may need to stay low for a bit longer to “buy” some demand from retail and foodservice. For operators, current prices present excellent feature opportunities.

• Pork prices were firm at the end of the week on seasonally lower slaughter as well...

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Jul 21 8:00 AM, General News







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