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Poultry Quarterly Q4 2022: Keeping Chicken Affordable in Times of Major Cost and Supply Challenges

The outlook for the global poultry industry is for strong market conditions, despite ongoing operational challenges.

Report summary

The outlook for the global poultry industry in Q4 2022 and early 2023 remains strong, despite the big challenges across global poultry as well as some recent setbacks in North America. From a market perspective, a weaker economic climate with pressure on spending power will lead to more price-driven consumer behavior, which supports poultry consumption as it is the cheapest meat protein option...

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Sep 27 8:00 AM, General News



Foodservice Update Q3 2022: Revisiting Growth Perspectives

The writing is on the wall: economic growth is in jeopardy due to macroeconomic challenges around the world. From severely high natural gas prices in Europe, which affect everything from fertilizer prices to milk powders, to a housing crisis, and continued partial lockdowns in China. Coupled with rising interest rates, softening equity markets, and negative real wage growth, consumer confidence surveys unsurprisingly outline a worsening outlook for demand. It is likely that the US and Europe will both be entering a recession over the next 12 months.

Report summary

In Europe and the...

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Sep 21 8:00 AM, General News


August Retail Sales Supported by Job and Wage Gains Amid Continued Inflation

Consumers’ willingness to spend overcame inflation again in August as more jobs and higher wages helped ease some of the pressure of continuing high prices, the National Retail Federation said today.

“August retail sales show consumers’ resiliency to spend on household priorities despite persistent inflation and rising interest rates,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “As we gear up for the holiday season, consumers are seeking value to make their dollars stretch. Retailers have been hard at work managing their supply chains and holiday inventories to provide..."

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Sep 19 8:00 AM, General News


Brandcrush Expands Solution to U.S. Grocery Retailers

Today, Australia-owned omnichannel media platform Brandcrush announced its expansion in the U.S. market to help grocery retailers and CPG brands drive growth with efficient, centralized media management as the $190 billion retail media market booms worldwide. The U.S. expansion into grocery retail follows Brandcrush's success in Australia and with global D2C retailers, propelled by global businesses' urgent need to modernize their media practices to unlock new revenue, protect margins and grow amid rising inflation.

Brandcrush closes the adtech gap in retail media, offering a unique solution for grocery retailers...

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Sep 16 8:00 AM, General News


Lean Hog Futures Surge Despite Sell-Off in Outside Markets Tuesday

U.S. stocks plummeted on Tuesday following the latest CPI data, which showed larger than anticipated inflation numbers despite declining gas prices. 

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation rose 0.1 percent in August, contrary to expectations for a month-over-month decline in inflation from July to August after going unchanged in July. 

The BLS reported that annual inflation declined for a second consecutive month but remained historically high at 8.3 percent. The food index increased 11.4 percent over the last year. This was the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979.

The Dow declined nearly 4% while the Nasdaq shaved off 5.2%. The S&P 500 fell 4.3%. Tuesday marked the worst day for the three indices since June 2020. Economists are concerned that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further to combat ongoing inflationary pressures...

 

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Sep 14 9:12 AM, UB Newswires


IRI Releases Insights on August Food Inflation and Impact on Consumer Shopping Behavior

Information Resources, Inc. (IRI®), which recently merged with The NPD Group to create a leading global technology, analytics and data provider, today released a new report, August 2022 Price Check: Tracking Retail Food and Beverage Inflation, with insights about food inflation and its impact on consumer shopping behavior. The insights leverage the latest point-of-sale data for August 2022 and include data covering all U.S. food channels, including e-commerce.

August data shows that prices of consumer goods remain elevated across categories...

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Sep 13 8:05 AM, General News


Restaurant365 Data Reveals Increase in 2022 Mid-Year Sales

Restaurant365, the leading all-in-one restaurant enterprise management software, reported that demand remained strong for restaurants in the second quarter of 2022, citing a 12% increase in its customers' sales from Q1 to Q2, despite the challenges of inflation and rising food costs.

"As economists discuss a potential economic slowdown, restaurants may not yet feel impacted because their sales continue to grow," stated Tony Smith, CEO and co-founder of Restaurant365. "A decline is still a very real possibility, so now is the best time for restaurants to take action..." 

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Sep 9 8:00 AM, General News


Import Slowdown Continues as Fed Tries to Rein in Consumer Demand

With inflation continuing and the Federal Reserve hoping to cool demand through higher interest rates, imports at the nation’s major container ports are expected to fall below last year’s levels for the remainder of 2022, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Consumers are still buying, but the cargo surge we saw during the past two years appears to be slowing down,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Cargo volumes are solidly..."

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Sep 8 8:00 AM, General News


Beef Quarterly Q3 2022: Leaning Into the Trimmings Trade

The global beef market remains strong. Most beef retail prices (in domestic currencies) continued their upward trend in Q2 or remained steady. Although Q2 prices did not rise much above Q1, most are sitting between 5% and 11% higher than Q2 2021.

Meanwhile, evidence of declining consumer confidence in the face of slowing economies and rising inflation is building. In general, beef markets are resilient to changes in economic conditions. However, we see movement within supply channels and price points that tend to favor cheaper...

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Aug 29 9:19 AM, General News


Consumers Back to Eating at Home, Eyeing Bargains as Costs Continue to Rise

During COVID-19, consumers opted to cook at home, citing concerns surrounding the virus and a new work-from-home lifestyle, making prep more manageable.

Essentially over the past year, consumers have flocked to restaurants again. However, inflation has paused the recovery in the foodservice sector and consumers are deciding to save some cash and cook more meals at home again, according to The NPD Group (NPD) and Information Resources, Inc. (IRI).

“To offset rising food costs, consumers are bargain hunting when...

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Aug 24 10:04 AM, General News


Lower-income Households Hardest Hit by Inflation

Historically, the spending gap between higher- and lower-income households is more pronounced in times of high inflation. With food inflation at a 40-year high, the gap has widened again, and lower-income households are shifting their at- and away-from-home eating behaviors to stretch their food dollars. Eating more frozen and shelf-stable foods, using less expensive and private label brands, and cutting back on restaurant visits, are among the ways lower-income households are managing their food spending, reports The NPD Group, which recently merged with Information Resources...

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Aug 18 8:00 AM, General News


This Week in Retail: Reviewing the Chicken Complex; CPI Update

This week in retail, we’ll take a deeper dive into the retail chicken landscape ahead of the approaching NFL season, which officially kicks off in four weeks.

Chicken currently ranks fourth in protein buying opportunities with 16.4%. Seafood, beef, and pork hold the top three spots, respectively.

Urner Barry’s Weekly Retail Feature Chicken Index is $2.96 per pound this week, up 10% from the 5-year average of $2.69 per pound. 

Within the chicken complex, boneless skinless breasts hold the most ad volume at 42.5%. Drumsticks are the next highest featured item with 15.5% of total chicken ads...

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Aug 11 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


Canadian Restaurant Industry Begins Its Steady Recovery in the Second Quarter of 2022

Dine-in restaurant visits grow by triple-digits

With the COVID public health restrictions lifted early in 2022, the Canadian restaurant industry began recovering from the steep declines it experienced during the pandemic lockdown periods. The industry finished the second quarter ending June with physical and online visits up 17% compared to a year ago, 2% below the traffic level in the second quarter of 2019 before the pandemic, reports The NPD Group. Restaurant customer spending, which, in addition to increased visits, reflects higher costs, grew by...

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Aug 10 8:23 AM, General News


Restaurant Visits Drop Amid Inflation, Higher Menu Prices

U.S. consumers decided to limit their trips to restaurants during the second quarter of 2022, reported The NPD Group.

Inflation and the rise in menu prices led to a 2% dip in physical and online restaurant traffic when compared to a year ago and down 6% below the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019.

“Consumers continue to deal with rising inflation and higher prices. We see three ways consumers respond to higher menu prices. They trade down to lower-priced items, cut back on the number of items ordered, or reduce restaurant...

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Jul 28 9:27 AM, General News


Consumers Rely on Chicken Even as Inflation Affects Prices

While consumers average rating for their current financial situation is in the middle between “poor” and “excellent,” 87 percent are buying more or the same amount of fresh chicken now compared to six months ago, according to research presented today at the 2022 Chicken Marketing Summit.

The National Chicken Council (NCC) and WATT Global Media presented the results of a study that focused on current and anticipated U.S. consumer behavior, specifically, consumption of fresh chicken. The results suggest opportunities for chicken to maintain market share. IRI provided supporting data from its...

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Jul 28 8:04 AM, General News


Global Pork Quarterly Q3 2022: ASF, Inflation, & Policies Challenge Growth While Trade Odds Rise

Global pork trade should pick up in the second half of 2022. A slight easing of feed costs and resilient consumer demand are improving market prospects. Still, challenges to growth remain as African swine fever continues to spread and inflation impacts trade policies.

Feed and energy costs are offering a break, but not quite relief. Feed input prices have softened in some markets but are expected to stay relatively strong for the rest of 2022. This will lessen the pressure on producers to some extent...

 

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Jul 27 9:12 AM, General News


Retailers Welcome Action But Say House Bill Fails to Create a Uniform National Privacy Law

The National Retail Federation called on the House to move cautiously on federal privacy legislation, saying a measure approved today by the Energy and Commerce Committee fails to establish a single national standard for U.S. data privacy law.

“We appreciate that the committee has worked tirelessly to improve this bill during the subcommittee and full committee processes,” NRF Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French said. “The legislation adopted today appropriately revised a provision to safeguard customer loyalty programs that help make everyday necessities..."

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Jul 22 9:13 AM, General News


REPORTER: How Brand Loyalty is Being Affected by Inflation

This article was originally featured in the Summer 2022 Edition of Urner Barry's Reporter magazine. Want a FREE subscription? Click HERE.

With inflation causing grocery prices to rise, customers may be swapping out their usual brands for the more inexpensive options on the shelves. This is leading some to question customer loyalty to brands and how brands can keep shoppers returning to them.

The rise in grocery prices is causing consumers to find smarter ways to shop and save. Brands with customer loyalty rewards, promotions, and discounts have a...

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Jul 22 1:36 AM, Urner Barry


The Current State of the Economy - Optimism or Recession?

For the past couple of months, the nation has been tuning in once a month at 8:30 am EST for the reading of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Each month, numbers have indicated levels of inflation not seen in decades. Headlines have grabbed the attention of everyone, causing concern and fear for potential recession. But how concerned should market participants be with the current state of the economy...

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Jul 21 8:22 AM, Urner Barry


Pork Checkoff: Mixed Signals in the Market as Some Items Struggle, Others Trade Firm

The cure for high prices is high prices — lack of features and ample inventory cause prices to adjust and create future opportunities.

Highlights
• Following the record-breaking levels of a year ago, backribs are now at the lowest levels of the past five years. Prices may need to stay low for a bit longer to “buy” some demand from retail and foodservice. For operators, current prices present excellent feature opportunities.

• Pork prices were firm at the end of the week on seasonally lower slaughter as well...

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Jul 21 8:00 AM, General News


Consumers Spend 40 Percent of Monthly Food Budgets on Restaurants on Average

In the midst of inflation, soaring energy and food costs and talks of a potential recession, restaurant meals remain a staple in consumer diets. On average, 40% of individual or family food budgets is spent on restaurants each month, according to Popmenu's nationwide survey of 1,002 consumers in May 2022. When ordering online, one-third (33%) of consumers spend $50 or more per order, on average.

Despite lingering concerns around the pandemic, more consumers are transitioning from delivery or takeout only to on-premise dining...

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Jul 18 9:19 AM, General News


June Retail Sales Increased Despite Rising Inflation

Retail sales increased in June even as inflation climbed higher and drove up prices across the board, the National Retail Federation said today.

“June retail sales data shows that consumers remain on solid footing despite rising prices and an active Fed raising interest rates to combat it,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Inflation has consumers modifying their spending behavior and prioritizing essentials like food, energy and back-to-school items. Unfortunately, modified consumer behavior won’t be sufficient to offset persistent price increases. Other policy measures like removing China tariffs, enacting smart..."

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Jul 15 11:49 AM, General News


Conagra Expects More Consumers to Eat At Home If Recession Hits

Conagra Brands Inc. expects consumers to eat more meals at home if the U.S. economy heads into a downturn, its CEO said, as the food company reported higher sales in its latest quarter.

Sean Connolly, Conagra's chief executive, said it isn't yet clear whether the economy is dropping into a recession, though he said supermarkets and packaged food companies have tended to capture more consumer spending during past periods of economic weakness.

"One of the things that you see happen first when recessions hit is consumers cut back on..."

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Jul 15 8:02 AM, Urner Barry


This Week in Retail: Consumer Spending in Question as Inflation Heats Up

Summer is heating up and so is inflation—clouding the outlook for consumer spending on food, travel, and beyond. 

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation climbed to 9.1% in June, more than what economists had anticipated. The latest figure was a nearly 41-year high and what some analysts considered to be a peak.

Increases in food and gasoline prices contributed to the relentless surge in inflation, which has elevated the cost of living and forced some households to reconfigure their spending habits...

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Jul 14 8:05 AM, UB Newswires


Technomic Takes a Mid-Year Look at its 2022 Foodservice Trends

As 2021 came to a close, research and insights firm Technomic dubbed 2022, the “Year of the Climb” for the foodservice industry. Six months later, the company released its latest whitepaper which provided a look at its predictions at the halfway point of 2022.

According to Technomic's Lizzy Freier, Director, Menu Research & Insights and Aimee Harvey, Senior Managing Editor the foodservice industry did witness a climb and improve compared to the pandemic-impacted years seen in 2020 and 2021.

However, the pair had much more to say...

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Jul 7 9:41 AM, SeafoodNews


This Week in Retail: Travel Season and Foodservice Demand

Following Independence Day, major retail buying occasions are few and far between until Labor Day. While the dog days of summer typically slow retail sales, they can spark interest in retail’s counterpart—foodservice.

The peak travel season, which is roughly from June through August, is usually beneficial for the restaurant sector. This summer, however, there are several variables at play that will influence travel plans, including high gas prices.

According to AAA, the national average for gas ticked lower to $4.80 a gallon, down eight cents over the past week. The downturn was mainly due to falling demand. While demand has softened, it could pick up again as more people plan vacations and hit the road this summer...

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Jul 7 8:00 AM, UB Newswires


NRF Says Economy is Slowing But Recession is Unlikely in Near Term

The U.S. economy’s rate of growth is slowing, but consumers remain financially healthy and the nation is unlikely to enter into a recession during the remainder of 2022, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“I am not betting on an official recession in the near term, but the most recent research pegs the risk over the next year as about one in three and it will be touch and go in 2023,” Kleinhenz said. “In the meantime, a contracting economy short of..."

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Jul 1 8:05 AM, General News


Consumers Mitigate Rising Costs by Having More Dinners At Home 

In-home dinners will remain elevated above the pre-pandemic level through 2024

Inflation and other rising costs have consumers looking to cut expenses, and eating more dinners at home is one way they do it. Out-of-necessity dinners at home peaked during the pandemic but have since normalized but are still above the pre-pandemic level, according to The NPD Group. NPD’s Future of Dinner report forecasts that in-home dinners will remain at a heightened level through 2024.

Although in-home dinners will remain elevated, consumers...

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Jun 28 8:05 AM, General News


UB Consulting: Has the Foodservice Industry Recovered?

It has been no surprise that the foodservice industry suffered during the pandemic. From the lockdowns to patron fear of catching COVID, we witnessed some of our favorite restaurants disappear. Still, the industry continues to fight battles along all fronts—inflationary pressures, rising employment costs, and supply chain disruptions, to name a few. It has been over two years since the emergence of the pandemic, which offers us the opportunity to dissect how the foodservice sector has coped up until now...

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Jun 23 8:35 AM, Urner Barry


Food Inflation Greater at Home than at Restaurants, MUFG says

Consumers who purchase food for in-home consumption have generally experienced higher price increases relative to what they pay for menu items at quick-service and fast-casual restaurants—a trend that makes restaurants more comparatively appealing, according to Nick Cole, Head of Restaurant Finance at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG).

This is one of several key viewpoints in Cole's mid-year outlook on the restaurant industry, which also includes the abatement of labor shortages, disruptions in the beef supply, high real-estate utilization, and a potential acceleration in...

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Jun 15 9:29 AM, General News


Retailers Say New Biofuel Levels Will Drive Up Food Prices

The National Retail Federation today said biodiesel levels set by the Environmental Protection Agency for this year are too high and will drive up inflation for already high food prices, especially processed foods that rely on food oils from crops like soybeans.

“For more than a year, we’ve alerted the EPA and the administration about the shortage of food oils, which is causing significant disruptions throughout the supply chain and raising food costs for consumers,” said David French, NRF’s senior vice president for government relations and executive director of...

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Jun 8 8:22 AM, General News


Pent-up Demand for Restaurant Dining in Canada Continues in April

Canadians made 75 million more foodservice visits in April compared to a year ago

Canadians made 75 million more foodservice visits this April than last year when most of the country was still in lockdown, reports The NPD Group. Online and physical visits to restaurants and other commercial foodservice outlets increased by 18% in April 2022 compared to a year ago, although still 10% below the pre-pandemic level in April 2019. Consumer spending at foodservice outlets, which reflects higher food and operational costs, is...

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Jun 3 9:14 AM, General News


Retailer Lidl Slashes Prices on Multiple Protein Items Amid Inflation

Lidl, a retailer with over 11,550 stores across the globe, will slash prices on over 100 items in all of its stores across the east coast of the U.S, including a few meat, seafood and plant protein items.

The campaign comes amid “inflationary pressures across the supply chain have led to sharp increases in food prices for many retailers, especially on staples including meat, grains, coffee, frozen prepared foods and other key household products.

"As many families contend with rising prices due to inflation, we hope to ease their financial...

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Jun 3 8:00 AM, General News


NRF Says Economy ‘Being Rebalanced’ but ‘Extreme Cooling Off’ Seems Unlikely

The Federal Reserve faces “a tricky job” in addressing inflation but continuing growth in employment, wages and consumer spending make it unlikely the effort will backfire into a major setback for the economy, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“With changes underway that focus on taming inflation without splintering the economy, the nation’s economic system is in the process of being rebalanced in ways that are testing its resilience,” Kleinhenz said. “This is an extraordinary period with unprecedented factors that include inflation at a..."

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Jun 2 8:00 AM, General News







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