Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending August 7, 2026

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran has reached its sixth month, lasting far longer than the weeks-long conflict he initially predicted. A combination of diplomatic efforts and renewed military threats this week has highlighted the limited options before the White House as it looks for a way to end the war.

The administration now faces a decision: continue escalating pressure on Iran or pursue negotiations aimed at reaching a resolution...

El Niño to Impact Trade? Panama Canal Could Suspend Vessel Bookings, Says Bloomberg

As of July 21, operators at the Panama Canal could curtail some vessel booking slots due to water-supply challenges, reported Bloomberg. Previously, Expana's team flagged this possibility during a June 25 webinar, according to Weather & Crop Researcher, James Tyler. Affected commodities could range from corn and soybeans, to fruit, vegetables, seafood, and more.

On July 7, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) could reduce the maximum authorized vessel draft for its largest locks to 44 feet by...

PODCAST: Ep. 40 - Middle East Conflict, Football World Cup, El Nino

In episode 40 of Agri-Food for Thought, we return with a new format, featuring guests.

We kick off with a news round-up (Middle East conflict situation, Super El Nino).

Then follows a FIFA Football 2026 World Cup update (featuring guests Jaime Almeida, Market Reporter - Beef at Expana, talking about Mexican trends; Ryan Gallagher, Editor at Expana, discussing US beer trends; and an account of a recent interview Simon Duke had with the National Restaurant Association).

The episode concludes with a brief segment by Lisa Guiraud

Crop-Threatening 'Super El Niño' Also Likely to Create Regional Winners, Say Expana Experts

This year’s (2026-2027) El Niño weather phenomenon can significantly affect global commodities, and food price inflation can be expected, especially if it is confirmed to be what is commonly known as a ‘Super El Niño’.

While most of the mainstream media's focus is on the devastating consequences of the Super El Niño phenomenon, it is worth noting that it will have a large but also highly varied economic impact across different regions. There are both winning and losing countries - and by extension, agricultural commodities

FMI Statement on May CPI Food Price Numbers

Today, FMI – The Food Industry Association commented on the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which shows a 0.1% increase in food-at-home prices for May and a 2.7% increase over the last 12 months.

FMI Vice President of Tax, Trade, Sustainability and Policy Development Andy Harig stated, “Today's CPI numbers for food at home represent a clear cooling from April’s elevated figure and should be welcome news for grocery shoppers facing an otherwise challenging inflationary environment. Food-at-home inflation increased just 0.1% in May and 2.7% over the past year...

Middle East Market Intelligence Brief: Week Ending June 5, 2026

As the Iran war heads into its fourth month, Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered ceasefire proposal in Lebanon, while Israel said it would continue operations and not withdraw troops, despite Trump’s claims of progress toward a wider regional peace effort involving Iran.

Meanwhile, fighting and strikes continue across Lebanon, Gaza, and the Gulf region, with tensions persisting around key energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Below is Expana’s weekly summary of the war’s most significant effects on global commodities. For the latest real-time updates, follow the Middle East Conflict tag...