First Half of Holiday Season Shows Strong Year-Over-Year Results Despite Monthly Drop

November retail sales dipped from a surge of early holiday shopping the month before but still saw solid year-over-year growth that marked a strong start to the holiday season, the National Retail Federation said today.

“Consumers continued to spend on household priorities and holiday gifts for loved ones this November despite continued inflation and rising interest rates,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Holiday shoppers are demonstrating resilience, and retailers are providing great products and experiences at the right price..."

NRF Says GDP Growth is Slower But Consumer Spending Remains Positive

Gross domestic product isn’t likely to grow as much in the final months of 2022 as it did in the third quarter, but consumer spending should remain strong even though its rapid pace is continuing to slow, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The third quarter’s results clearly dispelled the notion that the U.S. economy is in a recession, and the silver lining was the ongoing resiliency in consumption,” Kleinhenz said. “Nonetheless, the economy is cooling and interest-sensitive sectors, in particular, have seen a significant...”

Black Friday Week Retail Sales Fell Short of Last Year, Reports NPD

Discretionary general merchandise retail sales revenue fell below 2019 levels for the first time this year

Black Friday week marked the sixth consecutive week of in-store sales revenue declines for U.S. discretionary general merchandise. During the week ending November 26, 2022, spanning Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Small Business Saturday, sales revenue was 5% lower than during the same week in 2021, while unit sales were down 8%, according to U.S. retailer point-of-sale information collected by The NPD Group. Total November 2022 general merchandise retail sales...

Record 196.7 Million Consumers Shop Over Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend

A record 196.7 million Americans shopped in stores and online during the five-day holiday shopping period from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The total number of shoppers grew by nearly 17 million from 2021 and is the highest figure since NRF first started tracking this data in 2017. 

“The Thanksgiving holiday shopping weekend is a tradition treasured by many American families,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “As inflationary pressures persist..."

Record 166.3 Million Shoppers Expected During Thanksgiving Weekend

An estimated 166.3 million people are planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This figure is almost 8 million more people than last year and is the highest estimate since NRF began tracking this data in 2017.

“While there is much speculation about inflation’s impact on consumer behavior, our data tells us that this Thanksgiving holiday weekend will see robust store traffic with a record number of shoppers taking advantage of value..."

The Canadian Foodservice Industry’s Recovery Slows in Q3

Canada’s foodservice industry has shown promising recovery over the past year; however, growth slowed in the quarter ending September compared to a better-performing quarter last year, reports The NPD Group*. Visits to Canadian restaurants and foodservice outlets were up 6% in the quarter compared to a year ago, when traffic was up 12%. Consumer spending was up 10% in the quarter ending September 2022 compared to a 20% increase in the same quarter last year.

“The closer we get to full recovery of the foodservice visits lost during the pandemic..."

With Food Prices Rising, Consumers Pull Back on Other Retail Spending, Reports NPD

Pre-holiday declines in general merchandise sales emerge as grocery spending continues to rise

U.S. general merchandise retail sales revenue declined during the three weeks ending November 5, 2022. Year-over-year sales revenue in October fell 5% below a year ago, followed by a 14% decline in the first week of November. Several factors contributed to declining sales, with the rising cost of living at the forefront, according to The NPD Group, which recently merged with Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) to create a leading global technology...

Canadians Unwilling to Give up Dining out, Vacation, & Streaming TV Service Despite Strong Inflation

A new Service Line Warranties of Canada (SLWC) survey of Canadian homeowners examined the impact inflation is having on the Canadian home with almost 90% of respondents reporting that inflation is impacting their household budget. More than 60% said that the higher prices that have resulted from inflation has caused them to put off home repairs, renovations or upgrades.

The survey also looked at what Canadians are most willing to give up – or conversely, least willing – to help balance their budgets. Dining out, vacation, and streaming...

France Foodservice: The Gap is Widening Between the Recovery in Spending, Boosted by Inflation

The NPD Group forecasts a 2022 market down 5% in spending and 9% in visits, compared to 2019

The average ticket has jumped by 7% since 2019, all consumption occasions combined in fast food and table catering

Four out of 10 French people say they will go to a restaurant less often in the coming months

The French preserve their family outings

On the occasion of the publication of a survey dedicated to out-of-home catering*, The NPD Group , which recently merged with Information...

NRF Says Strong Consumer Fundamentals Counter Inflation and Interest Rates in Holiday Forecast

The National Retail Federation balanced high inflation and rising interest rates against strong consumer fundamentals as it developed its 2022 holiday spending forecast, Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“There are many factors impacting our holiday forecast, but business conditions are generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity,” Kleinhenz said. “Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat. The latest figures show the economy..."

NRF Predicts Healthy Holiday Sales as Consumers Navigate Economic Headwinds

Holiday spending is expected to be healthy even with recent inflationary challenges, as the National Retail Federation today forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5% over 2020 and totaled $889.3 billion, shattering previous records. Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% over the past 10 years, with pandemic spending in recent years accounting for considerable gains.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure..."

A Budget Friendly Thanksgiving

If the price tag for the holiday meal is on your mind, these tips for a budget friendly Thanksgiving will come in handy. No matter your budget, there are ways to put a delicious, memorable Thanksgiving meal – with turkey as the centerpiece – on the table!

Tips for a Budget Friendly Thanksgiving
Plan Ahead: This is our top tip! Planning ahead allows you to scope out holiday deals and special discounts at local grocery stores. Check out newspaper circulars or online coupons to know when to shop. Grocery stores often offer special discounts or deals featuring turkey...

America’s Eating Patterns Adjusted to a Pandemic and Are Now Adapting to Higher Food Costs

Six macro trends currently shaping food and beverage consumption behaviors

Historically, there has been a rhythm to eating patterns in America; somewhat predictable habits formed by daily routines and needs. The early stages of the pandemic disrupted this rhythm, and just as eating patterns were returning to pre-pandemic normalcy, food inflation set them on end again, reports The NPD Group* in its recently released 2022 edition of Eating Patterns in America.

“The rate of change in U.S. consumers’ eating behaviors continues at a dizzying..."

Holiday Plans: Desire for Food Gifting, Bigger Gatherings & Robust Food Spending Despite Inflation

New Results from Omaha Steaks' Annual Harris Poll of 2,000 Americans Reveals Insights on Holiday Attitudes and Behaviors

Americans are craving experiences and togetherness this holiday season, while also planning to spend more on holiday feasts and gather in larger groups than recent years. These are a few of the findings from the third annual Harris Poll, commissioned by Omaha Steaks gauging Americans on a wide variety of holiday-related food, entertaining and gifting plans. While 7 in 10 Americans (71%) are looking forward to time around...

Retailers Say New Fed Debit Card Regulations Mean Networks Will Have to Compete Online

The National Retail Federation today welcomed the Federal Reserve’s approval of regulations that clarify that banks and credit card networks are legally required to give retailers a choice between two unaffiliated networks over which to route debit card transactions regardless of whether purchases take place in-store or online.

“The Federal Reserve has declared once and for all that a debit transaction is a debit transaction no matter where it takes place and that merchants have the right to choose the network that offers the..."

NRF Says Consumers Still Spending Despite Worries Over Inflation and Interest Rates

Consumers remain worried about high inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes intended to bring inflation under control, but neither has stopped them from spending, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The economic situation in the United States is unsettling,” Kleinhenz said. “Consumer confidence is down, consumer spending’s rate of growth has slowed, and economists and consumers alike are worried about the possibility of a recession, all reflecting persistently high inflation and rising interest rates. Nonetheless, spending continues to grow, and many economists say a..."

August Retail Sales Supported by Job and Wage Gains Amid Continued Inflation

Consumers’ willingness to spend overcame inflation again in August as more jobs and higher wages helped ease some of the pressure of continuing high prices, the National Retail Federation said today.

“August retail sales show consumers’ resiliency to spend on household priorities despite persistent inflation and rising interest rates,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “As we gear up for the holiday season, consumers are seeking value to make their dollars stretch. Retailers have been hard at work managing their supply chains and holiday inventories to provide..."

Instacart Makes it Easier for Customers to Save On Groceries with Acquisition of Eversight

Instacart, the leading grocery technology company in North America, today announced it has acquired Eversight, an AI-powered pricing and promotions platform for CPG brands and retailers. Since its founding in 2013, Eversight has brought CPG brands and retailers technologies tailor-made for the grocery industry, enabling brands and retailers to unlock optimal promotions and pricing that propel their business and create more compelling savings opportunities for customers.

Through Eversight's AI-powered, experimentation-based platform, CPG brands and retailers can continuously test customized pricing and promotions...

Lower-income Households Hardest Hit by Inflation

Historically, the spending gap between higher- and lower-income households is more pronounced in times of high inflation. With food inflation at a 40-year high, the gap has widened again, and lower-income households are shifting their at- and away-from-home eating behaviors to stretch their food dollars. Eating more frozen and shelf-stable foods, using less expensive and private label brands, and cutting back on restaurant visits, are among the ways lower-income households are managing their food spending, reports The NPD Group, which recently merged with Information Resources...

July Retail Sales Show Consumers Still Shopping Despite Inflation

Core retail sales as calculated by the National Retail Federation rose in July even as overall sales reported by the Census Bureau remained flat on a monthly basis, and both calculations showed strong year-over-year gains as consumers kept shopping despite high inflation, NRF said today.

“Retail sales grew in July, supported by declines in prices at the gas pump and moderately lower inflation,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Consumers are adapting to higher prices by prioritizing essentials like food and back-to-school items, and retailers are..."

Consumers Spend 40 Percent of Monthly Food Budgets on Restaurants on Average

In the midst of inflation, soaring energy and food costs and talks of a potential recession, restaurant meals remain a staple in consumer diets. On average, 40% of individual or family food budgets is spent on restaurants each month, according to Popmenu's nationwide survey of 1,002 consumers in May 2022. When ordering online, one-third (33%) of consumers spend $50 or more per order, on average.

Despite lingering concerns around the pandemic, more consumers are transitioning from delivery or takeout only to on-premise dining...

NRF Says Economy ‘Being Rebalanced’ but ‘Extreme Cooling Off’ Seems Unlikely

The Federal Reserve faces “a tricky job” in addressing inflation but continuing growth in employment, wages and consumer spending make it unlikely the effort will backfire into a major setback for the economy, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“With changes underway that focus on taming inflation without splintering the economy, the nation’s economic system is in the process of being rebalanced in ways that are testing its resilience,” Kleinhenz said. “This is an extraordinary period with unprecedented factors that include inflation at a..."

Sales of Food Preservation and Storage Products Grow by Double-Digits As Consumer Demand Increases

With 86% of meals sourced from home, food inflation at a 40-year high, the average U.S. household wasting $1,866 of food each year*, U.S. consumers are storing food and leftovers to stretch their food dollars and meals while reducing food waste. The return to worksites and schools and more extracurricular and outside activities has increased the need to pack food for away-from-home meals and snacks. These needs drive the demand for food storage products, reports The NPD Group. Consumers spent...

NRF Says Economy Should Continue ‘Bustling Forward’ as Fed Works to Bring Inflation Under Control

The economy’s fast-paced growth could slow somewhat as the Federal Reserve tries to bring inflation under control in the next few months, but consumers are likely to keep on shopping as lower inflation eases uncertainty, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The Fed’s tightening has kicked off a new cycle of adjustment and the outlook for interest rates has consequences for consumers and businesses alike,” Kleinhenz said. “There is a growing list of uncertainties, and the risks are mounting. But underlying..."

US Restaurant Industry Ends Challenging First Quarter with Customer Traffic Down from A Year Ago

In the first quarter of 2021, the third round of stimulus payments, availability of COVID vaccines and relaxed pandemic restrictions helped increase online and physical visits to U.S. restaurants by 3% compared to the same period a year before, according to The NPD Group. The first quarter of 2022, in contrast, presented a host of headwinds, including higher food and energy costs, for restaurant consumers and restaurants. Challenged by these headwinds and compared to a 3% gain in last year’s first quarter, online and physical...

New Acosta Report Finds 40% of Shoppers Buy Plant-Based Products

Acosta, a global integrated sales and marketing services provider in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, today released its latest research report, Plant-Based Eating: Trend or Fad? The report explores consumers' increased interest in purchasing plant-based meat and dairy alternatives. According to Acosta's research, 40% of today's shoppers buy plant-based meat and/or dairy products, citing health as their key motivating factor.

"Consumers' focus on healthy living increased significantly since the onset of COVID-19," said Kathy Risch, Senior Vice...

More Consumers Hunting for Bargains this Easter

Consumers plan to spend an average $169.79 this year on Easter-related items, according to results of the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. A total of 80 percent of Americans will celebrate the holiday and spend a collective $20.8 billion, down slightly from last year's forecast of $21.6 billion.

“Consumers are eager to return to their pre-pandemic holiday traditions, particularly as it relates to purchasing food and gifts for in-person celebrations this Easter,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay...

What Gas Prices Mean for Restaurants

Starting last spring, prices across the board began to rise as sharp increases in demand for goods and labor intertwined with supply chain disruptions. No particular industry, product or service has been spared by rising costs which have been passed along to consumers. The rate of consumer inflation continued to rise to a 7.9% annual increase in February, the largest jump since 1982, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Foodservice menu prices have also been skyrocketing in this environment, driven by higher raw material and labor costs. Despite this, consumers have continued to...