NRF Says Strong Consumer Fundamentals Counter Inflation and Interest Rates in Holiday Forecast

The National Retail Federation balanced high inflation and rising interest rates against strong consumer fundamentals as it developed its 2022 holiday spending forecast, Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“There are many factors impacting our holiday forecast, but business conditions are generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity,” Kleinhenz said. “Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat. The latest figures show the economy..."

What We Foresee for 2023 - Technomic

It’s a tough time for restaurants, no doubt. The return to sustained normalcy that consumers and operators were anticipating after COVID-19 has been stalled by economic headwinds. Although supply chain problems appear to be receding, mainly because operators have solved for handling shortages and delays, inflation and the specter of recession are putting forth new hurdles for operators to jump over after already being depleted by the last couple years of the pandemic. While signs point to a challenging beginning of the new year, the latter part of 2023 should brighten as we...

NRF Says Consumers Still Spending Despite Worries Over Inflation and Interest Rates

Consumers remain worried about high inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes intended to bring inflation under control, but neither has stopped them from spending, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The economic situation in the United States is unsettling,” Kleinhenz said. “Consumer confidence is down, consumer spending’s rate of growth has slowed, and economists and consumers alike are worried about the possibility of a recession, all reflecting persistently high inflation and rising interest rates. Nonetheless, spending continues to grow, and many economists say a..."

Foodservice Update Q3 2022: Revisiting Growth Perspectives

The writing is on the wall: economic growth is in jeopardy due to macroeconomic challenges around the world. From severely high natural gas prices in Europe, which affect everything from fertilizer prices to milk powders, to a housing crisis, and continued partial lockdowns in China. Coupled with rising interest rates, softening equity markets, and negative real wage growth, consumer confidence surveys unsurprisingly outline a worsening outlook for demand. It is likely that the US and Europe will both be entering a recession over the next 12 months.

Report summary

In Europe and the...

NRF Says Growth Has Slowed But Indicators Disagree on Whether the Nation is in a Recession

U.S. economic growth has slowed, but it still isn’t clear if the nation is in a recession, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“As we come to the end of the summer, economic indicators are signaling an unsteady U.S. expansion in the face of several headwinds,” Kleinhenz said, noting ongoing inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the volatile stock market and other issues. “These factors are all contributing to the debate on whether the economy is..."

Impact of a Recession on Foodservice

Introduction

Senior executives from leading financial institutions have been predicting that an extended economic downturn is becoming more likely by the day. But despite declining GDP and still-surging inflation, many executives have been hesitant to use the term recession when describing the prospects for the second half of 2022. This hesitancy is largely due to the fact that—despite all of the warning signs—there are also indicators such as consumer spending and low unemployment that defy historical conditions for a recession. So, where does that leave foodservice? How do we interpret the...

NRF Says Economy is Strong Enough to ‘Keep a Recession at Bay’ Despite Two Quarters of Decline

Despite two consecutive quarters of decline, the U.S. economy still does not appear to be in a recession and remains unlikely to enter one this year, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“Back-to-back contractions have heightened fear of a recession, but while the economy has lost momentum heading into the second half of the year, economic data is not yet consistent with a typical recession,” Kleinhenz said. “Our view is that while the economy is functioning at a..."

The Current State of the Economy - Optimism or Recession?

For the past couple of months, the nation has been tuning in once a month at 8:30 am EST for the reading of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Each month, numbers have indicated levels of inflation not seen in decades. Headlines have grabbed the attention of everyone, causing concern and fear for potential recession. But how concerned should market participants be with the current state of the economy...

Conagra Expects More Consumers to Eat At Home If Recession Hits

Conagra Brands Inc. expects consumers to eat more meals at home if the U.S. economy heads into a downturn, its CEO said, as the food company reported higher sales in its latest quarter.

Sean Connolly, Conagra's chief executive, said it isn't yet clear whether the economy is dropping into a recession, though he said supermarkets and packaged food companies have tended to capture more consumer spending during past periods of economic weakness.

"One of the things that you see happen first when recessions hit is consumers cut back on..."

NRF Says Economy is Slowing But Recession is Unlikely in Near Term

The U.S. economy’s rate of growth is slowing, but consumers remain financially healthy and the nation is unlikely to enter into a recession during the remainder of 2022, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“I am not betting on an official recession in the near term, but the most recent research pegs the risk over the next year as about one in three and it will be touch and go in 2023,” Kleinhenz said. “In the meantime, a contracting economy short of..."