NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient

The National Retail Federation today [October 15, 2026] released its annual holiday forecast, predicting retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025. That translates to total spending of $1.013 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024 totaling $972 billion.

“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”

“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy...

A Record 159 Million Consumers Expected to Shop on Super Saturday

An estimated 158.9 million consumers plan to shop on the last Saturday before Christmas, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure is up from 157.2 million shoppers last year and surpasses the previous record of 158.5 million in 2022.

“As the final Saturday before Dec. 25, Super Saturday is a significant shopping event for both consumers and retailers,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. “This year’s event falls only five days before the Christmas holiday, and...

The Retail Rundown: A Season of Plenty, Except for Turkey

For retailers, this year’s holiday season is shaping up to be one of plenty. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects November and December sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, underscoring consumers’ continued spending power.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

While foodservice outlets are poised to capture consumer traffic on hectic days, retail prepared foods and frozen entrées are well-positioned to compete for at-home dining occasions as shoppers seek convenient, time-saving meal solutions...