Moving Beyond Tariff Headlines and Managing Supply Chain Complexities - Agri-Food Americas

Marcel Goldenberg, Chief Market Reporting Officer for Food, Feed & Industrial at Expana, outlined key trends and challenges shaping commodity input markets, urging agri-food companies to adopt data-driven strategies to manage rising costs and supply chain complexities.   

Speaking at Agri-Food Americas 2025 in Chicago today, Goldenberg highlighted that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year from August 2024 to August 2025. “Energy was up 5.2%, electricity up 6.3%, piped gas up by 7.1%, but some have dropped, like gasoline, fuel oil,” he said

Is a Recession on the Horizon? - Agri-Food Americas 2025 

Since commodities follow the macroeconomy, analyzing the broader economy, especially the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – a timelier index than GDP, can help gauge the path ahead for commodity prices, Tom Bundgaard, Vice President, Forecasting , Expana, said at Agri-Food Americas in Chicago today.  

There is not only a correlation between PMI and commodity prices but there is also a lead lag between the two. The highs and lows in PMI come with a bit of a lead lag before we see similar peaks for commodity categories.  

ANALYSIS: USDA Livestock Forecast Points to Lower Pork Production

In the USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook released August 18, 2025, the pork market was adjusted a little lower. USDA now forecasts 2025 production at 27.7 billion pounds, down 0.5% from last year.

For 2026, production is forecast at 28.4 billion pounds, a modest 2.5% increase but still under last month’s estimate. The changes stem from slower hog slaughter and lighter weights, with spring PRRS disease pressures keeping supplies tighter.

Hog prices are forecast by USDA to remain active, averaging about $77/cwt in the third quarter and...