ANALYSIS: Beef Herd Dynamics – Heifer Slaughter Rates Remain High

Amidst historical lows in the U.S. cow herd population, market observers have noted a significant uptick in the price of Fresh 90% lean boneless beef trimmings, marking nine consecutive weeks of higher weekly weighted averages. The latest Urner Barry weekly weighted average quotation is reported at $3.4936 per pound, an all-time high. This trend traces back to herd liquidation beginning in 2019, spurred by drought conditions across major cattle-producing regions and subsequent elevated feed costs, which disincentivized producers to maintain herd size...

ANALYSIS: The Surge in Boneless Beef Imports Amidst Constrained U.S. Herd

The UB Beef Trimmings, 90% Fresh Chemical Lean quotation reached a record weighted average high of $333.25 per hundredweight on March 18, 2024. Meanwhile, according to the USDA’s latest Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory report, the number of beef cows were reported at 28.2 million head, the lowest level since 1961.

With constrained availability of cows in the domestic market and record high pricing for lean trim, end users look to alternatives to satisfy demand.  They have done so quite successfully through imported boneless beef...

ANALYSIS: Beef 50s and Pork 42s Take Diverging Paths

Over the past decade, fresh beef 50s and pork 42s have generally followed a corresponding trend in pricing. The two items can be used interchangeably for processed products like hot dogs and sausage, with preferences among the processors for the materials sometimes boiling down to cost. 

Fresh beef 50s have historically maintained a premium over pork 42s with recent exceptions observed in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, accelerated export interest, modestly reduced domestic production, conversion line issues, and retail interest for pork sausage supported the value of 42s, making them...