ANALYSIS: Mexican Export Suspension of Cattle Creates Challenges and Opportunities for Stakeholders

Mexican feeder cattle exports to the US have faced interruptions at various points since late 2024, primarily due to sanitary suspensions imposed by US authorities following the detection of screwworm outbreaks in cattle.

Although there was a partial reactivation at certain border crossings early in 2025, trade was again suspended in May. An attempt to resume in July lasted only a few days before a new suspension. From January to August 2025, just over 200,000 head were exported, compared to nearly 940,000 during...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Knuckle Export Prices Surge

In recent weeks, Mexican knuckle export prices to the United States have risen significantly, mirroring the strong upward trend observed in the US boxed beef market. This increase is primarily driven by the US's reduced slaughter levels compared to the previous year, resulting in tighter product availability and increased demand for imports from Mexico. Mexico has been able to export more beef due to its higher domestic supply, a result of increased Brazilian beef imports...

ANALYSIS: Key Factors Shaping the Mexican Beef Cutout in 2025

During the first half of 2025, the Mexican beef cutout showed a pronounced upward movement, with prices rising at a significantly faster rate compared to previous years and peaking in early June. This escalation can be explained by several factors: ongoing drought conditions led to a reduction in available cattle, while the cost of feeder cattle increased sharply due to tighter supplies. These pressures limited the volume of cattle entering the supply chain for slaughter and processing. 

Facing these challenges, Mexican stakeholders began seeking alternatives...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Market Weakens as Brazilian Imports Surge

Brazilian beef imports into Mexico have surged significantly in 2025, particularly during June and July, marking a pivotal shift in the market landscape. Year-to-date, Mexico’s purchases from Brazil have increased by more than 300% compared to the same months in 2024, rising from 3,666 metric tons(mt) in June 2024 to 16,170 mt in June 2025, and from 4,907 mt in July 2024 to 15,580 mt in July 2025.

Mexico’s policy of not imposing import tariffs on Brazilian beef has fueled this growth...

ANALYSIS: Post-Suspension Outlook for Mexican Cattle Imports

The USDA’s announcement of a phased reopening of southern ports for livestock trade, effective as early as July 7, 2025, marks a significant moment for the Mexican export market for feeder cattle to the US, following a second suspension initiated in May 2025. This follows an initial suspension in November 2024, triggered by the detection of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico, with trade resuming in February 2025 after a rigorous pre-clearance inspection protocol was established. The latest closure, driven by...

ANALYSIS: Reviewing the Downward Trend in Mexican Shoulder Clod Prices

The Mexican domestic market for bone-in and boneless shoulder clod has experienced a downward price trend since mid-June 2025, primarily driven by a notable decline in demand. Bone-in shoulder clod has depreciated by approximately 4.6% from its levels at the beginning of June, while boneless shoulder clod has dropped by about 2.8%, following record-high prices in May fueled by reduced slaughter volumes. These elevated prices, which peaked earlier in the season, began to strain buyers, prompting consumers and intermediaries to shift toward alternative...

ANALYSIS: US-Mexico Ribeye Price Gaps and Market Shifts

Historically, the export market for Mexican beef to the US has shown consistent year-over-year volume increases, positioning Mexico as a key source for buyers seeking products to meet inventory needs. However, recent years have brought challenges, with rising demand and price surges in the US market, alongside exchange rate fluctuations, causing price differentials to shift based on factors like seasonality. 

From January to April 2024, Mexican Ribeye averaged between $5.19 and $5.90 per pound, while US No Roll ranged from $6.99 to $7.12 per pound...

ANALYSIS: Mexico’s Feeder Cattle Exports Post-Suspension in 2025

Mexico’s feeder cattle exports to the United States in February 2025, after trade resumed, totaled 23,816 head, a sharp decline compared to February 2024’s 110,511 head and February 2023’s 98,906 head, according to recent data..

By mid-March 2025, exports reached 15,023 head, significantly lower than the full-month totals of 135,687 head in March 2024 and 137,001 head in March 2023. With exports still being recorded for the second half of March 2025, volumes may increase, but they are unlikely to approach the levels seen in the previous...

ANALYSIS: Mexico-US Cattle Trade Suspension Impact

The US Department of Agriculture suspended Mexican cattle imports in late November 2024 after detecting New World Screwworm in Southern Mexico. This finding triggered immediate trade restrictions, resulting in estimated losses of roughly 270,000 head through January 2025. December-January trade historically represents 15% of annual cattle movement between both nations. After more than two months of suspended operations and extensive protocol reviews, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) worked with Mexican authorities to establish comprehensive pre-clearance inspection and treatment procedures...

ANALYSIS: 2024 Mexican Beef Export Dynamics

The Mexican beef export market throughout 2024 reflected the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors and trade dynamics, resulting in significant shifts in export patterns and market behavior.

Currency movements played a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics, particularly during the first half of the year when the Mexican peso showed unprecedented strength, reaching MXN 16.43 per USD, a level not observed since 2015. This currency appreciation created challenging conditions for export operations, as it effectively reduced the competitive advantage of Mexican beef in international markets. 

The market landscape underwent a substantial...

ANALYSIS: Impact of the USDA Suspension on Mexico-US Cattle Trade

Mexico, as a key beef exporter to the United States (US) market, faces a commercial landscape influenced by multiple factors, including fluctuations in the peso-dollar exchange rate, domestic market conditions, and international sanitary regulations.

During the first half of 2024, the strengthening of the peso against the dollar reduced the competitiveness of Mexican exports, as domestic market prices surpassed those available in the US market. However, in the second half of the year, the strengthening of the dollar boosted exports by offering better returns for producers...