ANALYSIS: US 2025 Ground Beef Heats Up, Pre-Labor Day Sales Jump 12%

In the week leading up to Labor Day 2025, the retail fresh ground beef market outperformed the same period in 2024 according to Circana data, with total sales climbing 12% year-over-year (YOY). Distribution improved modestly by 3%, reflecting stronger retail penetration, while discounted sales rose only slightly. This signals that the bulk of demand strength was driven by underlying consumer pull rather than promotional activity. 

Course ground blends highlighted this trend. The 70–77% lean...

ANALYSIS: US Flank Steaks Remain at Unprecedented Levels for This Time of Year 

Flank steak prices typically decline as summer winds down and grilling season comes to a close, but 2025 has proven to be an exception. In September, weekly prices reached a historic high, surpassing the previous record set in 2023. Since August, values have reached their highest levels for this period in nearly four decades, surpassing all years back to 1985. 

Historically, flank steak prices begin to soften from mid-to-late July into August. However, that seasonal decline hasn't occurred this...

ANALYSIS: US Beef Cold Storage Values Dip Below Threshold for Third year in a Row

Beef cold storage, although higher than last year by .98%, is currently still extremely low compared to previous years. Stretching all the way out for ten years 2024 is the only year below the current levels for total frozen beef. Next month historically we see an increase in volumes and continue to do so heading into the winter months, which usually is the time of year that experiences some of the higher cold storage volumes...

ANALYSIS: High Cattle Prices Drive Dynamics in the Boxed Beef Market

With slaughter rates continuing to be constrained, kills are currently trailing 2024 year-to-date totals by 11.1%, and record high prices are becoming more common, the question arises: what is one of the major drivers in this market?

At the moment, beef production is about 10.3% lower than it was at this time last year. Currently production levels are now below what they were in 2015. Compared to 10 years ago (2015), beef production is down roughly 0.40%, and slaughter numbers are down about 3%...

ANALYSIS: US Loin Primal Values and Cattle Prices Over the Last Ten Years

Although the loin primal has been experiencing a little more weakness compared to the others for the Choice cutout, values are still at highs that we have never seen before at this time of year ever. The loin primal, which normally experiences a dip in value through the summer has not.

Over the last 3 years, the weekly average price was $3.85/lb and for the week of 08/11/2025 the weekly average was $4.79/lb. For comparison...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 Cash Cattle Surge, Margins Collapse, and Slaughter Hits Record Lows

August has been a month of records: record-high cash cattle prices, record-low margins, and record-low weekly cattle slaughter. According to the USDA Five Area Direct Cattle Data, Live Steer Price, cash cattle are currently $241.00/cwt, about 25% higher than at this time in 2024. Several factors are driving these historic prices. US cattle inventories are tight, the lowest since 1951 according to the USDA, and outside pressures, such as tariffs on imported beef and a...

ANALYSIS: Texas Cattle Grading Prime Hits Record High in 2025

According to the USDA’s National Steer and Heifer Estimated Grading Report, Texas has reached a record high, with roughly 9% of steers and heifers grading Prime. Historically, Prime grading follows a seasonal pattern, climbing from January through late spring, early summer, before tapering off during the hotter months and into winter. However, 2025 appears to be deviating slightly from this trend for Texas specifically. Rather than peaking, Texas continues to report incremental gains, now sitting 21% above year-ago levels. This raises the question...

ANALYSIS Comparing US Boxed Beef Cutout Values to COVID Highs Amid Current Surge

The current weekly average cutout value is $3.84/lb for Choice and $3.64/lb for Select. During the COVID-19 period, the record high for the Select cutout was a weekly average of $4.20/lb in May 2020, but prices sharply declined afterward, dropping to levels well below the five-year average. At this time in 2020, the Select cutout’s weekly average was approximately $2.10/lb, which...

The Retail Rundown: Valentine’s Day Brings Foodservice Gains 

The grocery segment received a boost from last weekend’s pro-football championship game, with strong movement at the meat case. According to Circana data, retail chicken wing sales ahead of the game reached about $8.7 million, up from $8.5 million the previous week. Pork ribs brought in nearly $7 million, rising from $6.7 million, while ground beef sales totaled approximately $76 million, compared to $74.7 million the prior week. 

Looking ahead, February is typically a slower month for retail and overall meat demand. However, Valentine’s...