HPAI H5N1 Virus in Dairy Cattle – What We Know

In March 2024, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1), commonly referred to as bird flu, was confirmed in domestic US livestock for the first time in a dairy operation in Texas. Since then, the virus has spread to 1,072 dairy operations across 17 states, raising widespread uncertainty throughout the dairy and livestock markets. Industry participants have raised concerns about the outbreak's potential impact on consumer perception and demand for dairy and meat products, though government agencies reiterate that the national food supply remains safe. Expana is closely monitoring the situation...

The Retail Rundown: Grocers Vie with Foodservice During Peak Travel Season

Summer is usually the peak demand period for foodservice, as warmer weather encourages vacation plans and out-and-about activities. As more consumers embark on trips, spending is typically increased at restaurants and bars.

Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that restaurant business rose 0.3 percent last month, likely supported by the summer travel season. Overall retail sales in June remained unchanged from May, outpacing expectations for a decline. Stock futures climbed following the stronger-than-expected data, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to... 

ANALYSIS: Peeled Knuckles Defy Seasonal Trends Fueled by Lean Beef Demand

Back in April, we highlighted how record-high prices of 90% boneless beef had a massive impact on several items within the boxed beef complex, most notably, peeled knuckles. That trend has moved on through the summer as prices for peeled knuckles have reached their highest point in history, aside from 2020, when the COVID pandemic was in full swing.

At present, Choice peeled knuckles sit at $4.00/lb., this is roughly 21.8% higher than at this time last year...

The Retail Rundown: Dog Days Dull Buying Occasions

Holiday retail meat clearance last week was reported as mostly positive albeit a bit scattered due to varying weather conditions across the country. This week, extreme heat and record temperatures are expected to persist in the Western and Eastern U.S.

The sweltering conditions that typically accompany the dog days of summer make it challenging for retail to capture regular meat purchases. The egg case also typically sees fewer purchases around this time of year as consumers opt for cold breakfasts like cereal and fruit...

ANALYSIS: Checking In On Chicken Headcount

Ending off the month of June, cumulative chicken headcount is down by approximately 2.18% with about 94.3 thousand fewer birds produced when compared to a similar period in 2023. Although total headcount continues to retreat on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, a glance at the individual size categories reveals a shift in overall weight distribution.

The number of small (4.25 lbs/down) and jumbo (7.76 lbs/ up) broilers crossing the line has risen by 1.56% and 2.08%, respectively, while birds within the medium (4.26-6.25 lb) range have retreated 6.37%...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Market, A Seasonal Quandary

The turkey market has been particularly challenging for players to successfully navigate over the past several years and, so far, 2024 has been no exception. This scenario is particularly true when speaking about the whole-body bird and raw material sectors where seasonally subdued demand persists here at the mid-year point. Given the fact that wholesale and consumer-facing demand patterns are notoriously challenging to predict on a "normal" year, turkey markets are falling back on traditional supply-side metrics to help illuminate the road ahead...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand’s Beef Sector Intensifies US Market Push, May 2024’s Exports Surge 26.0% M-O-M

The New Zealand beef industry is increasingly targeting the lucrative US market to capitalize on the high demand resulting from supply shortages. New Zealand’s exports in May 2024 were recorded at 57,202 mt, the highest in-month level since the 2015 drought year of 57,538 mt, data from Stats NZ indicated.

On a monthly basis, exports jumped 26.0% or by 11,796 mt. Year-on-year, the country’s beef exports grew 4.9% or 2,659 mt...

The Retail Rundown: Retail Segment and Temperatures Heat Up Ahead of Holiday

The retail segment is heating up for the July 4^th holiday, as are the temperatures across the country.

Scorching heat along with the holiday falling on a Thursday could dampen this year’s cookouts. Residents in the south-central and West Coast are in the midst of a dangerous and record-breaking heat wave, with blistering temperatures forecast to extend into next week.

Meanwhile, severe weather including flash flooding and strong wind gusts is possible over the next few days across the Plains and Midwest, according to the National...

Cargill Indefinitely Shutters Production at Dodge City Plant; Shifts Cattle to Other Facilities 

Cargill has indefinitely shuttered operations at its beef processing facility in Dodge City, Kansas after suffering a partial roof collapse caused by heavy rains.

That facility, which can process roughly 5,000 to 6,000 head per day, was down on Monday, July 1st, and will likely be down tomorrow and possibly Wednesday, according to industry sources. Other market sources suspect that the plant might be down for the entirety of this week, depending in part on how quickly repairs can get underway. 

USDA estimated today's cattle slaughter at 115,000 head, on par with a week ago...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage: Up, Down, Sideways

While spot trade activity within the turkey market remains seasonally subdued here at the tail end of June, there is no shortage of influential variables that are weighing heavily on the minds of participants. One report which has raised a couple of eyebrows is the latest Cold Storage assessment. As illustrated by this week’s chart, both yearly and monthly inventory comparisons were far from unified through the end of May. Total holdings closed the month at 422.9 million pounds. This represents a 5.2% year-over-year (YoY) advance, while also positioning... 

ANALYSIS: Lower Tenderloin Prices Weigh Down Loin Primal Value Amid Grilling Season

Loins typically garner the bulk of attention at this point on the calendar within the boxed beef market. Grilling season is in full swing and the 4th of July holiday is on the horizon. In 2024, we have seen the loin operate in quite a different fashion when compared to last year. As of June 24, Urner Barry’s Choice loin beef cutout value sits at $4.25/lb., roughly 10% below the same time last year. While a few items are lagging behind last year’s levels...

The Retail Rundown: Fired Up for the Fourth

A recap of protein sales over the Father's Day weekend showed beef in the lead with nearly $208.7 million in total sales, up from $181.8 million the week prior. The steak complex averaged $13.93 discounted, 10.5% higher year-over-year (YOY). Prices on T-bone ranged from $7.93 to $15.08 discounted while top loin averaged $12.04 discounted, down 57 cents from a year ago.

Holiday features at the seafood counter included fresh shrimp at $7.82 discounted, down 70 cents from last year. Tilapia ran at $6.47 discounted, up 2.1% YOY. Cod fillets were featured...

ANALYSIS: April's Record U.S. Pork Export Volume, Central America Exceeds China

The discussion in the U.S. pork market has been largely focused on improved export interest compared to 2023 levels. Analyzing the USDA's total U.S. pork exports for April reveals the highest volume ever recorded for that month since data collection began in 1970, slightly surpassing the volumes of 2020 and 2021. This increase is notable as U.S. pork has become more price-competitive in international markets due to a drop in European pork production, making E.U. pork supplies less abundant than in past years...

ANALYSIS: China’s May 2024 Beef Imports Soar 30% YoY; Consumer Shifts from Pork

China’s May 2024 beef imports rebounded from last month, rising 4.5% m-o-m or 10,048 mt to 234,449 mt, the latest General Administration of Customs People's Republic of China data indicated.

On a yearly basis, volumes soared 30.7% (55,053 mt), primarily driven by a hike in Brazilian imports. Exports to China was previously suspended in 2023 over Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) issues.

Year-to-date (YTD) figures stood at 1.23 million mt, a decline of 23.6% or 234,589 mt compared to the same period last year...

ANALYSIS: Chicken Wings Bucking Historical Trends

Anyone dealing in the wholesale chicken wing market is acutely aware of the rarefied air the industry is breathing these days. Not since the dizzying heights of 2021 have wholesale values soared as they do now, defying historical trends and seasonal expectations. Recent market feedback continues to paint a surprisingly robust picture, which suggests the current undertone may not be shifting just yet.

The shadow of 2021 looms large, a year marked by such astronomical prices that drove buyers away, taking nearly two years for demand to recover...