Technomic Releases 2021 Foodservice Industry Predictions for the U.S., Canada and Global Markets

Technomic has released three different whitepapers for the U.S., Canada and global markets, sharing foodservice industry predictions for the new year. The good news is that there is one thing the predictions have in common: a clearer road to recovery. With the approval and distribution of vaccines, we're able to see a light at the end of the tunnel for the following predictions to thrive.

Overall, Technomic foresees strong to moderate growth—specifically in the U.S. and Canada—over the next 12 months, being led by aggressive strategies...

Technomic Reports on the Current State of the Evolving Foodservice Technology Channel

Technomic recently released The State of Foodservice Technology 2020 covering operator survey results that explore the current landscape of technology use, identify priorities for future investment and provide insights into emerging trends.

“The report uncovers the current landscape of technology use in restaurants, identifies operator plans and priorities for future investment, and provides more clarity on the factors that are accelerating or, in some cases, hindering deeper integration of technology into restaurant operations,” explains Melissa Wilson, principal at Technomic...

Technomic's Take: 2021 Global Trends Outlook

We can only guess what’s in store for 2021 in the global restaurant space. 2020 showed us—among so many things—that what’s expected and what happens don’t always align, to say the least. That said, we think our 2020 restaurant trend forecast holds up fairly well given the reality of the marketplace affected so drastically by the pandemic. Ghost kitchens certainly moved mainstream. Vegan fare got more space to stretch and grow. Plant-based meats continued to inform product development, especially across Asia. Beverage chains certainly broke out from the crowd—again, especially in Asia. And halloumi, pinsa pizzas and sliders had strong showings on chain menus across the world. So, what’s in store for the coming year...

Technomic's Take: What to Expect in Canada in 2021

As we head into 2021, the world of foodservice remains in unprecedented territory as we collectively deal with the immediate and long-lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. While many unknowns linger as the world anxiously awaits an end to the virus, we do know that those who demonstrate the most versatility in response to industry, consumer and cultural shifts are best set to succeed in the coming year. Read ahead for Technomic’s expert predictions to better equip yourself for what’s to come and how to prepare for a post-pandemic world.

1. The Road to Recovery Steadies

Foodservice will experience the start of a financial recovery in 2021, but sales results across segments will be a mixed bag. Limited-service restaurants will turn...

Consumers Likely to Continue Increased Usage of Takeout and Delivery

With indoor dining restaurant traffic significantly curtailed due to COVID-19 restrictions and concerns, the availability of takeout and delivery options became more important for consumers and restaurants. Many foodservice operators began offering these options recently, and consumers have increased their usage of takeout and delivery.

According to the National Restaurant Association, the uptick in takeout and delivery frequency was visible across each of the three major dayparts in recent months. The Association reported that 66% of consumers said they ordered takeout or delivery for dinner last week. That is up from 58% during the last week of February.

The trend was similar for lunch. About 47% of consumers ordered takeout or delivery for lunch last week, a level that has...

Technomic's Take: What’s to Come in 2021

It’s not easy to forecast the future when the ground keeps shifting underneath. The foodservice industry has had to be more nimble than ever this past year, and everyone is eager to bounce back and embrace a clear sense of normalcy. Yet several big questions loom large: Is a COVID-19 vaccine on the horizon soon? Which areas of the country will recover quickest? And when will consumers feel comfortable about dining indoors again?

Despite the many ambiguities that exist, Technomic's outlook for the industry remains optimistic. Up-to-the-minute strategies are positioning foodservice segments to kick off a wider resurgence through 2021. Optimizing the menu, directly...

Technomic Analyzes Wendy's Breakfast Performance 

In a recent analysis, Technomic used its Ignite Consumer tool to look at how Wendy's breakfast performed amid several challenges. Wendy's has had a long experience with testing breakfast menu items, dating back to the 1980s. From adding and removing breakfast items at different locations and trying out omelets on the menu, this daypart has represented an ongoing battle for the quick service chain.

In March 2020, Wendy's launched a new campaign focused on breakfast and started to spread the word with a Twitter war. The breakfast battle started with a tweet calling out McDonald's, who did not respond. Wendy's then followed up...

COVID-19 Forces Technomic to Revise Foodservice Industry Forecasts

With the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to leave its mark on the foodservice industry, research firm Technomic announced revisions to its foodservice forecasts for 2020 and 2021.

The data Technomic shared is presented through three scenarios: Best Case, Middle Case and Worst Case. In the “Middle Case” scenario, Technomic predicts foodservice industry will grow by 21% in 2021 following the massive drop-off in sales during 20201, but sales are expected to remain 11% lower from 2019...

Technomic Updates Their 2020 Foodservice Trend Predictions For Today's 'New Environment'

Back in October 2019, Technomic, a company that provides research, insights and strategic consulting for the foodservice industry, released their take on trends to watch for in 2020. Their report highlighted predictions on food, flavor, operations and consumer attitudes. But what Technomic — and the rest of the world for that matter — didn’t take into account was that a pandemic would sweep the globe and upend the food industry. 

A lot has changed since the beginning of the year, and now Technomic is taking a look at how their...

Reopening Regulations Lead to New Formats and Menu Innovations

China has put several parts of Beijing under lockdown following a spike in recent virus infections. The second wave prevention measures include the closure of some bars and the sanitization of restaurants.

South Africa is now allowing restaurants to offer dine-in service after having been under one of the world’s tightest lockdowns since late March.

Wisconsin’s Supreme Court ruled that prohibitions on business reopenings are unconstitutional, opening the door for restaurant dining rooms and bars to welcome guests again.

Governors in both Texas and Florida announced that restaurant dining rooms can reopen at 25% capacity. However, in Florida, stay-at-home orders remain in place for the more...

Technomic: Recent Protests Resulted in Restaurant Foot Traffic Declines 

Major cities where protests were held, including Minneapolis, experienced declines in QSR and overall restaurant foot traffic that overindex national levels.

There is significant concern that the virus will reappear

Driven by the New England region (88%) and consumers ages 55-64 (85%), the vast majority (77%) express concern that the virus will be back before the end of year. On the flip side, 32% of West North Central and 31% of consumers ages 18-24 report that they are not concerned or very concerned.

Employees’ safety and health are top of mind for operators

Healthcare operators are more likely to be concerned with...

Uncertainty Surrounds the Reopening of Businesses

While the reopening of businesses shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic is a significant step forward, the rate at which the economy will recover or consumers will feel comfortable resuming activities such as dining out or shopping remains to be seen.

“Is it possible the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is behind us? Maybe, but we are not out of the woods yet, and uncertainty abounds,” said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.

Kleinhenz added, “Predicting what will happen is even more challenging than usual. While history often helps guide us, previous downturns offer little guidance on what is likely to unfold over the next six to 12 months. There is no user’s manual in which government, businesses or consumers can find...

Technomic: Turmoil, Uncertainty and Some Relief Expected for Foodservice Over the Next 18 Months

The foodservice industry will experience significant declines in 2020.

The degree of decline will be dependent upon the timing of lifting restaurant closure restrictions, the status of school and college openings in the fall, the degree of travel return and a possible second COVID-19 wave in the fall.

Healthcare and retail hosts will be the strongest performers

In terms of segments, healthcare will perform at the strongest level in 2020, followed by retail hosts (e.g., c-stores, supermarkets) and limited-service restaurants. Retail and healthcare are less impacted by closures and LSR is strongly positioned for off-premise business. The most affected segments are...

Technomic: Consumer Perspective on Social Distancing Measures within Restaurants

Following CDC guidelines for safe social distancing, half of consumers would be comfortable dining in at restaurants with a 6-foot distance between tables. However, more than a quarter would be more comfortable with 9-15 feet.

More consumers willing to social distance than wear protective gear

More than half of consumers would follow social distancing measures, but less than half would be willing to wear a mask or gloves when in a restaurant. Consumers ages 35-44 are more likely to...

Technomic: Supply Chain Issues Likely to Continue

As news of outbreaks within the food supply chain spread, restaurant operators started to grow wearier of their prospects. Concerns about commodity spikes and/or shortages are compounding the negative outlook operators already had because of the impact of shelter-in-place orders and consumer changes in behavior. Operators are taking extraordinary measures to ensure the health and safety of their staff and customers alike, as many recognize the failure to do so could lead to rebound in contagion rates, put their staff in danger and undermine their growth.

The good news is that curbside, drive-thru and limited takeout appear to be growing to levels that are allowing sustainable levels of sales to occur for...

Technomic: Foodservice Spending Continues a Slow Rebound 

Consumer spending estimates bottomed out at a decrease of 35% of expected sales the week of April 12 and has grown to a level that may be pulling us off the bottom of the market. The cumulative loss in spending has declined for the first week since the start of the pandemic. However, it is important to note that previous weeks showed fluctuations that could foretell more up and down movement in the trends in coming weeks.

Off-premise ordering at FSRs sees high growth this week

Ordering by nondelivery, off-premise methods has increased across all segments this week. For fast-food restaurants, this was driven by drive-thru orders (59%). Growth at FSRs was driven by a mix of drive-thru and takeout orders. Overall, casual-dining and fine-dining restaurants saw the largest jump...

Technomic: Uncertainty Surrounds How and When to Reopen the Economy

Conflicting opinions between federal, state and local officials

With the publication of federal guidelines, some states have received mixed signals from high-level officials on the proper timing of reopening. There is a vocal segment of the population pushing their states to reopen and a handful of states are moving in that direction, despite public health warnings of a prolonged outbreak in their states.

Public health projections on the timing of the pandemic are a work in progress

Testing protocols have reached their current capacity and there is growing concern that previously reported plateaus reflect a peak in the number of tests being provided as opposed to...

Technomic: Canadian Foodservice View During Coronavirus Pandemic 

When news of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China first broke, it was impossible to fully comprehend the global devastation that would follow. Canada confirmed its first case of COVID-19 on Jan. 25 and, as of April 15, the country’s surge of confirmed cases had reached 28,364. While a national mandatory stay-at-home order has yet to be enacted, most provinces have ordered nonessential business workers to self-quarantine until virus concerns subside.

For restaurant operators, consumers’ fears of public spaces as well as government recommendations and regulations have been damaging to business. Suspended dine-in service has forced operators to pivot to takeaway, drive-thru and delivery models only, but even those changes haven’t...

Technomic Forecasts Recovery Process for Foodservice as a New Normal Takes Shape 

This information is pulled from Technomic’s Foodservice Impact Monitor, which shares sentiment and behavior tracking to help support the transition from crisis response to near- and long-term planning. View some highlights pulled from the most recent report below, focusing more on recovery than COVID-19 responses, as we continue to enter a “new normal” in the foodservice industry.

The ‘Four S’ Process of Recovery

Survival. The first month of the recovery was focused on containing and minimizing the economic damage that the pandemic was causing. Restaurants scrambled to adjust to off-premise service or closed entirely opting to focus on lobbying efforts to gain...

Technomic Predicts 2020 Will Be the Most Challenging Year For the Top 500 Chain Restaurants

Technomic released the Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report, which ranks each top chain by sales performance for the previous year. This year’s report includes insight into what to expect for 2020. Although uncertainty remains about the toll that COVID-19 will have on performance, the initial forecast predicts overall sales to decrease by 12% to 17% this year.

“While the Top 500 chains saw a relatively solid overall sales increase in 2019, the growth gap between the largest players and midsize chains continues to widen,” explains Kevin Schimpf, senior research manager at Technomic. “The 5.7% sales boost achieved by the top 20 chains significantly...

Technomic Projects Foodservice Sales for March to Fall Between a 31% to 48% Drop from February 

The first two months of the year were shaping up well for the foodservice industry, with a roughly 4% increase in sales year over year for the months of January and February—months which are typically slower historically. Typically, March sees 12% higher sales than February—the lowest month of the year. Right now, our preliminary projections for March fall between a 31% and 48% drop in sales from February—a net loss of 43% to 60% from the expected monthly sales gain typically seen in March.

Sales and traffic declines more extreme for beyond restaurant operators

More than half (57%) of beyond restaurant operators report a sales decrease of more than 70% over the prior year, and 63% report a traffic decrease of more than...

Technomic: Decrease in Consumer Spending Levels Off Slightly

Within the past week, it became clear that the timing and scope of the pandemic will be highly localized because of fragmented government actions and variable social distancing practices by location. This will likely lead to a geography-dependent economic recovery timeline, with early adopter states experiencing a potentially quicker return to normal compared to later adopters. This COVID-19 update from Technomic’s Foodservice Impact Monitor explores the continued effect on the industry, including consumer spending leveling off and some innovative initiatives from operators.

Industry Impact

Unemployment claims have grown from 3 million the previous week to over 6 million in the last report. It remains to be seen if the government stimulus will be enough to counteract that...

Technomic: Potential Economic Shock from Coronavirus Pandemic is Unprecedented 

There is wide disagreement about whether COVID-19 will be an economic shock with a sharp recovery or if it will pull the economy into a sluggish recession. The previous worst quarter in U.S. history for GDP was Q2 2009, immediately after the economic crash. That quarter, the GDP dove by 3.9%, a fraction of the projections we are seeing as a result of COVID-19. The economic shock from this event is unprecedented.

Consumer spending on foodservice continues to drop. For the average consumer, Technomic research suggests that spending has declined by an estimated 45% from a typical week in February, with further planned reductions expected to come. Consumer demand is still present in the marketplace, but as the pandemic has heightened and concerns have grown, a new normal is setting in. Shelter-in-place and social distancing actions have resulted in...

Technomic: Foodservice Growth Projected to Decline 11-27% in 2020 Due to Coronavirus

COVID-19 continues to disrupt the entire foodservice industry and will only continue to have significant consequences. Using our current understanding of the crisis, we modeled out numerous scenarios to understand the scope of its impact. Presently, the expected foodservice impact ranges from a decline of 11% to 27% in year-over-year growth for 2020.

But while most of the changes seem grim, there are also signs of hope, specifically from the operators who are adapting their service model in response to the new environment.

It’s no surprise that travel and leisure will take the biggest hit. The business and industry sector is being severely impacted by office closures and...

Technomic’s Take: COVID-19, The Foodservice View

The coronavirus (COVID-19) has become a familiar part of our lexicon in a very short period of time. Since its appearance in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, world and government agencies are fearful that the COVID-19 outbreak could turn into the world’s most severe pandemic since the H1N1 influenza of 1918. As of March 4, more than 93,000 coronavirus cases have been confirmed, resulting in over 3,000 deaths.

China represents more than 85% of the cases and about 95% of the fatalities, however, the virus has spread to over 73 countries and territories and the number of cases outside of China is growing at concerning rates. The outbreak is expected to have a major impact on an already tenuous worldwide economy, with economists recently downgrading global GDP expectations anywhere from...

Technomic Releases Foodservice Technology Program and Consumer Trend Study

Recent research as part of Technomic’s foodservice technology program sheds a light on the fast-paced and evolving influence technology has on consumers’ dining experiences. Brands must balance leveraging technology to foster a greater connection with guests and maintaining their trust in terms of privacy and control over personal data.

“Technology is becoming more ingrained in the foodservice industry and is rapidly evolving,” explains Anne Mills, senior manager of consumer insights at Technomic. “Operators will need to work with their partners to...