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Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q2 2020: COVID-19 Crisis Disrupts Global Pork Industry
Rabobank expects continued volatility in pork prices in 2020, as disruption in local markets is balanced with product shortfalls in Asia.
“The combined effect of near-term demand destruction and processing interruptions due to labor constraints has weakened producer returns and will slow production growth. Weaker GDP growth could further pressure pork demand, compounding an already challenging operating environment,” according to Christine McCracken, Senior Animal Protein Analyst.
China: Hog price strength reflects slow herd recovery and demand recovery
Hog prices remain elevated on African swine fever (ASF) herd losses and a gradual recovery in the production sector. Producer interest in rebuilding remains...
Rabobank: Initial Impacts of Covid-19 on the Brazilian Consumer
The coronavirus pandemic has inflicted significant pain on the Brazilian consumer, with unemployment rising and incomes set to decline in the coming months. Beyond the initial shock of the lockdown period, in which supermarkets and pharmacies have done well, consumer habits are set to change and resemble some of the trends seen during the last recession in 2015-2016.
Initial Shock and Wider Impact Ahead
- A large part of the country remains in social isolation mode, with no clarity as to when and how such measures will be relaxed or lifted. São Paulo state is signalling a continuation of the quarantine period until at least April 22.
- On April 13, Santa Catarina became the first state to announce the reopening of some retailers, with...
Rabobank: China's Gradual Recovery from Coronavirus
As coronavirus eases across China, life is slowly returning to normal. Different sectors are recovering at different paces, but the impact of the disruption to foodservice and food retail will be ongoing. The slow recovery of China’s foodservice industry and the uplift in food retail sales can give other countries a glimpse of what might happen once the worst of the pandemic has passed.
After nearly two months of lockdowns, life in China is slowly returning to normal. Ministry of Commerce data shows 99% of large manufacturing enterprises have resumed operations. However, the coronavirus changed, at least temporarily, some consumer habits, especially where and how to eat. A Nielsen survey indicates 86% of Chinese consumers said they would...
Coronavirus Takes European Food Delivery on a Bumpy Ride
Food delivery platforms were expected to be one of the few winners of the ‘corona crisis.’ However, platforms seem to have had a rough start, due to both supply and demand developments. Although recovery is seen in some cases, it remains to be seen whether this bumpy ride will get smoother.
Food Delivery Platforms Swell With New Entrants
For foodservice companies, business has drastically changed these last few weeks. Restaurants and bars across Europe were told to shut down and resort to food delivery. Many restaurants have made this shift, from fast-food chains to Michelin-star restaurants.
Even though some restaurants decided to take on the task of delivery themselves, many see the added value of teaming up with delivery platforms such as...
Rabobank: Impact of Coronavirus on Southeast Asian Food & Agribusiness
Southeast Asia will face far-reaching challenges from the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak, such as economic decline, reduced out-of-home consumption, and supply chains disruptions, even beyond the lockdowns.
After panic buying, consumers will shift from foodservice to retail and – after a short, suppressed splurge (if any) – to recession-period spending.
Production will also be affected, albeit less, but transporting goods will continue to experience problems due to...
Retail Fresh Produce Demand Soars, but Landmines Remain During Coronavirus Pandemic
The COVID-19 situation has created a surge in fresh produce demand in retail grocery, but challenges around foodservice, logistics, macroeconomics, and labor availability pose ongoing threats. While fresh produce sales through foodservice channels have largely dried up, consumers continue to stock up on grocery items, including fresh produce.
Logistics have been strained, both globally and domestically, but the industry is adapting rapidly. The imminent global recession and rapid climb in the value of the US dollar will continue to threaten global demand, even after the virus is contained. Labor availability constraints and increases in...
Rabobank: Coronavirus' Impact on the U.S. Beverage Landscape by Channel
Rabobank breaks down how coronavirus so far has impacted the US beverage landscape by channel: off-premise and on-premise.
Off-Premise: The Storm Before the Quiet?
The most up-to-date IRI data (through March 8) shows that consumers started to boost food and beverage spending as early as mid-February. Rabobank's sources, however, indicate that there was a drastic shift in consumer behavior starting on March 11 and March 12, at which time consumers really started stocking up on essentials (in fact, the CDC recommends having at least a two-week supply of “essentials”). Reportedly, one major supermarket chain saw record, single-day sales on...
Rabobank: Coronavirus and African Swine Fever to Shake Up Global Poultry Markets
The outlook for global poultry in 2020 will be materially affected by the current coronavirus pandemic, and the ongoing African swine fever (ASF) challenges in the pork industry will bring additional complexity to global markets.
Rabobank expects a further drop in pork production in Asia this year, which could lead to potential growth in local poultry production and international trade, if rising supply chain challenges can be managed. As coronavirus is now expected to cause a global economic slowdown, poultry demand could...
Rabobank: Impact of Coronavirus on European Foodservice
Coronavirus is rapidly spreading across Europe. The travel & tourism (T&T) industry, including domestic and international visitors and business travel, is one of the most affected by the situation. Since travelers represent a significant portion of foodservice demand, revenues for restaurants and bars will decline. The magnitude of this decline will depend on the duration of the crisis, the weight of travel-related demand on total foodservice revenue, and the impact of coronavirus on economic growth.
Travel-Related Demand Under Pressure
Although disruptions to daily life outside Italy (under quarantine) are limited, event cancellations, corporate policies banning business trips, and changes in consumer behavior are...
Rabobank: China's Growing Appetite for Meat Alternatives
‘Meat alternative’ has become a global buzzword since Beyond Meat conducted its stellar Nasdaq IPO. Since then, many meat alternative startups began looking into the Chinese market. The rise of the numerous Chinese startups, such as OmniPork and Zhenmeat, hinge on the belief that China will be a potential consumption market for meat alternatives.
Meat alternatives have been discussed a lot by the public media in the past year. The global frontrunners are US-based companies making beef-like burgers with plant-based ingredients, like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods. Since Beyond Meat’s IPO, China has witnessed nearly 100 plant-based brands emerge in cities like...
Coronavirus Complicates the African Swine Fever Outlook
While African swine fever remains the dominant issue in global animal protein – with change continuing in China, Southeast Asia and Europe – Coronavirus is now complicating the outlook.
For China, and most of global animal protein, 2019 was a year of unprecedented change. China’s pork production declined by over 20% in 2019, hog and pork prices reached record levels and dragged other protein prices up with them, and animal protein imports were above, or close to, record levels across the species. ASF also impacted pig herds and pork production in other parts of the world – across north Asia and Southeast Asia, and in some parts of Europe. Global animal protein trade was heavily shaped by ASF in 2019, with China’s record demand influencing many markets.
In China, the number of new ASF cases, and the number of re-infections, has been declining. In other parts of Asia, the disease continues to spread, with...
Nutri-Score May Shake Up the Plant Based Alternative Protein Shelf
According to Rabobank, Nutri-Score is likely to challenge consumers’ perceptions in their choice for alternative protein products. Making consumers aware of a food’s nutritional values is what the roll-out of the front-of-pack label in the coming months and years is intended to do in the European market. In this way, Nutri-Score may lead health-driven consumers to change their preferences and processors to change their formulations.
Nutri-Score is a front-of-pack labeling system that grades food products from A to E according to their nutritional level. It has been launched to nudge consumers to make healthier choices in their food preferences and has already been adopted by several...
Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q1: China in the Front Seat for Beef Imports in 2020
We are yet again experiencing a major disruption to one of the world’s largest beef importers, China. “The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has had a major impact on foodservice and trade. With foodservice as the main channel for sales, beef is expected to feel the impact more than others. Indications from the 2003 SARS outbreak suggest that once the virus is contained, sales and trade should rebound quickly. However, the timeframe for control remains uncertain,” according to senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.
In other developments:
US trade deals
Progress was made on the USMCA, and the Japan/US trade deal was approved in December. These were closely followed by the signing of the phase-one US-China trade agreement in January. Although questions remain on...
Rabobank: Slower Growth Prospects as Coronavirus Hits Foodservice in Southeast Asia
In a previous note on the impact of the novel coronavirus (since named Covid-19) on foodservice, Rabobank highlighted how plummeting tourist numbers will necessitate a review of 2020’s foodservice growth prospects for Southeast Asia. Since the publication of that note, some of the tourism authorities in the region have revised their tourist arrival projections for 2020. While the evolving nature of the situation and the indirect impact that tourism has on the overall economy makes projections challenging, with these estimates now available, we can provide a preliminary view of how foodservice growth is likely to be impacted in 2020.
The Importance of Tourism to Foodservice in SEA
Domestic consumers and tourists contribute differently to foodservice consumption and growth in Southeast Asia (SEA). While an increase in per capita occasions and...
Coronavirus Hits Chinese Soy Supply Chain, Lowering Consumption and Import Needs
The outbreak of coronavirus (designated as Covid-19 by the WHO) will hit Chinese soy oil and soymeal consumption, primarily in Q1 and early Q2 2020. Barring an extreme escalation of the epidemic, both are expected to register a robust rebound in 2H 2020.
Due to weakened Chinese demand, strong competition from South America, and seasonal trade patterns, China’s import pace of US soybeans will remain slow in the coming months. Lower-than-previously-anticipated procurement of US soybeans, might run the risk of reigniting the trade war during the US election campaign.
This research is based on the information available to date. As the situation remains fluid, Rabobank is closely monitoring the developments and...
Rabobank: Supply Chains in the Midst of Coronavirus Outbreak
Containment measures to avoid the further spread of the coronavirus are affecting Chinese and global logistics supply chains. China’s domestic transport sector is disrupted, and global logistics operators are seeing their volumes reduced. It will be a challenge to contain the virus with as little interruption to supply chains as possible and to revert to normal quickly.
Containing Measures Are Taking a Toll
In the attempt to contain the spread of coronavirus, the Chinese government enforced a series of stringent quarantine measures that are taking a high toll on domestic and global supply chains.
Hubei province, where the virus started, and Wuhan, its main city, have been on lockdown since the start of the disease. The government extended the Lunar New Year holiday for an extra week, gaining time to contain the disease. However...
Rabobank: Foodservice Industry Continues to Suffer from Coronavirus Outbreak
The coronavirus has had a huge impact in China, and with the virus still not under control, the foodservice industry will continue to suffer. Therefore, it is very likely that 2020 will be a difficult year.
China’s Foodservice Industry Continues to Suffer
The coronavirus outbreak will continue to impact the foodservices industry, as many of the foodservice stores, such as Starbucks, Haidilao, McDonald’s, and Yum China remain closed until further notice. With no clear sign that things will get back to normal soon, we estimate that the 50%-80% revenue losses felt during the Chinese New Year could last longer. Table 1 below shows the industry’s 2020 sales growth based on the 50%-80% revenue losses model, lasting...
Rabobank Assesses Coronavirus Impact on the Chinese Dairy Sector
The outbreak of coronavirus is disrupting the entire dairy supply chain in China. Although, for now, we have only limited information and anecdotal evidence, Rabobank assesses the impact on the Chinese dairy market because the potential effects on the global dairy commodities market should not be ignored. The situation remains fluid, and Rabobank is monitoring the developments closely.
Disruption to the Entire Supply Chain
While the impact of the epidemic on the demand for dairy should be short term, the uncertainty over the actual duration of the impact and the lingering psychological impact could potentially bring meaningful damage to consumption, which then affects...
Rabobank: Foodservice 2020 Global Outlook
The global market outlook is for foodservice sales to continue to grow, although some tempering is expected due to macroeconomic uncertainties across most geographies. This report explores the foodservice market in various regions and looks at the four main issues for foodservice executives: the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, delivery, input costs, and sustainability.
The Foodservice 2020 Global Outlook explores the issues that are top of mind for foodservice executives. The first of these is the uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Consumer confidence, a key driver for foodservice, may be under increased pressure in 2020 as economic growth slows down and geopolitical events add uncertainty and an overall...
Rabobank: Coronavirus Brings Risks for Foodservice
The coronavirus outbreak will impact foodservice revenues in the short term in China. Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are the most vulnerable markets outside of China. Foodservice players could face challenges such as supply disruptions and lack of personnel. Players will also have to consider strategic changes in the way they operate if they want to retain clients and secure long-term growth.
China’s Foodservice Industry Hardest Hit if the Coronavirus Outbreak Drags On
China is bearing the immediate brunt of the Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak, with Wuhan city under lockdown. Chinese consumers in other provinces are also encouraged to avoid public spaces to lower the probability of...
Rabobank Talks Alternative Protein Surprises
Rabobank kicks off the first note of the decade by sharing some of the main highlights from their annual ‘We Didn’t See That Coming’ survey of food trends. At the end of every year, for the past five years, Rabobank has asked in confidence the simple but highly revealing question: “In the world of food, what surprised you the most over the last twelve months?”
The main surprise can be summed up as the ‘the rapid growth and consumer acceptance of alternative proteins.’ For ease of digestion Rabobank has broken it into four sections...
Rabobank Pork Quarterly Q1 2020: Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks
Rising disease pressures continue to challenge the global market and will remain the major change driver in global animal protein in 2020, according to Rabobank’s latest Pork Quarterly titled ‘Opportunities Are Emerging from Risks.’
“Although the severity of African swine fever’s (ASF) impact is subdued in some regions, the scope of the disease has expanded over recent months,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Animal Protein Analyst. “The ramifications in 2020 will lead to continuous caution on production expansion in some regions and higher import demand on the global balance sheet.” Several ongoing, regional trade-deal discussions will...
African Poultry Sector Remains Strong Opportunity for Investors
According to a recent Rabobank report, the time is now for investors that are looking to stake their claim in the African poultry industry.
A report authored by Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst, Animal Protein, said that local and international investors are eyeing the steady growth for both the African poultry and egg industries over the past decade and see the region as a strong investment opportunity...
Rabobank’s initial report on investment opportunities in African poultry, “Time for Africa” was released in 2017, and Mulder provided an update on an opportunity...
Rabobank: Opportunities Remain Wide Open for African Poultry
Since the 2016 report ‘Time for Africa,’ we’ve seen ongoing investments in the USD 25 billion African poultry and egg industries, driven by strong long-term fundamentals. This has recently accelerated again after a slowdown in 2016/17 resulting from economic volatility in some African countries, especially those with a high dependence on oil and mining. “The middle class in Africa is expected to continue growing, as the population doubles and more people move to big cities. These core fundamentals, together with the untapped potential of local feed grain production, offer an attractive investment opportunity,” according to Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior animal protein analyst.
“This will all lead to ongoing market growth and modernization at all stages of the value chain, creating an increasingly interesting platform for international investors. The growing demand and modernization of...
Rabobank: Poultry Quarterly Q1 2020
The outlook for global poultry in 2020 is slightly more positive than it was in 2019, when markets suffered from relative oversupply. A key driver of the gradual recovery will be ongoing strength in trade flows to Asia in order to supply African swine fever-affected markets such as China, Vietnam, South Korea, and the Philippines. These trade flows will be positive for dark-meat prices, though they will be subject to increasing volatility. Improved beef prices (the main substitute for fresh poultry), stable global average feed prices, and more balanced supply will also all support the gradual recovery. The downside is that global whole-bird and breast-meat markets will remain pressured and have limited price upside.
African swine fever (ASF) will increasingly push chicken expansion in Asia in 2020. This will help fill the gap in local protein markets affected by ASF, but it also...
Rabobank: Global Beef Trade Into the 2020s
Global Beef Trade Continues to Grow
Global beef trade has continued to grow over the last five years, fueled by growing import demand, and supported by trade agreements and improved access to new and existing markets. This growing demand, seen predominantly in Asian markets, is illustrated in the latest Rabobank World Beef Map, which shows a heavy concentration of trade flows into Asia.
Rabobank believes that beef trade will continue to rise over the next five years, supported by strong importer demand. African swine fever (ASF) will provide a short-term, intense increase in demand, but strong fundamentals of increasing wealth and changing diets in Asian countries support ongoing demand for protein. To meet this growth in demand, we believe production and beef exports will also...
Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q4 2019: Strong Demand to Test Supply in 2020
Beef will see a continuation of strong import demand from China in 2020, according to Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly for Q4 2019.
Strong demand will be the driving force in the global beef market in 2020, while beef production will experience slow growth.
“Although beef is not strictly a fungible product, demand and supply pressures will cause a redistribution of product among markets. Market participants will need to be vigilant for any...
Rabobank: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand
Agricultural commodities were heavily impacted by trade wars, African swine fever, and erratic weather in 2019. According to the RaboResearch report "Outlook 2020: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand," many of these factors will remain key for agri commodity prices in 2020.
In 2019, agri commodity markets were impacted by several unprecedented incidents and uncommonly severe conditions. China's hog herd declined significantly, as a result of African swine fever (ASF). This drastically weakened demand for feed and, combined with the US-China trade war, resulted in a significant slowdown in the global soybean trade.
Meanwhile, record US corn- and soybean-planting delays drove corn prices from three-year lows to six-year highs within a few weeks. Then, improved...
Rabobank's Global Protein Outlook for 2020
In 2020, global animal protein faces an uncertain world, but opportunities can still be found. African swine fever dominates the outlook, having generated unprecedented change in 2019 – and we expect more in 2020. Trade disputes and sustainability are other notable challenges in the global animal protein complex. But there are also opportunities in global animal protein, such as recovery from ASF, winning on sustainability, and investing to secure ongoing trade flows.
African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the outlook for 2020 – as it has done during 2019 – and will pull down overall growth, as well as bring uncertainty to...
China’s Recovery from African Swine Fever: Rebuilding, Relocating, and Restructuring
African swine fever (ASF) has already caused huge herd losses and led to soaring pork prices in China in 2019. We believe the disease will continue to spread in the country in the coming years. However, we expect the pace of herd loss to slow down, due to industry participants’ reactions and policy changes. Restocking will likely take around five years, but hog herd levels may find it difficult to recover to pre-ASF levels.
“In addition to the direct impact on the hog herd, ASF will reshape the development of China’s hog supply chain in the coming years,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at Rabobank. “During the rebuilding process...
Pork Quarterly Q4 2019 – Producers Remain Cautious on Expansion as Risks Outweigh Rewards
Global pork prices continue to rise, as protein shortfalls intensify competition for a shrinking supply, according to Rabobank’s Pork Quarterly Q4 2019.
Pork prices have hit record highs in some regions, while trade barriers continue to limit the upside in the US and Canada. prices will continue to increase through Q4 2019 and into 2020, as markets work to balance supply and demand. “Despite rising economic incentives, we expect a limited global production response, as environmental and regulatory constraints, along with the threat of African swine fever (ASF), constrain the industry’s ability to expand,” according to...
A Hard Landing for Some: US Trade Tariffs on EU Agricultural Products
On Wednesday, October 2, the WTO ruled in favor of the US in a long running trade dispute over illegal government support to European aircraft builder Airbus. It allowed the US to impose tariffs on USD 7.5bn worth of products from the EU-28. The tariffs proposed are not a broad list focused on the whole European agricultural sector, rather it targets specific countries and product categories. For example, in 2018, almost 80% of US wine imports in value terms were imported from the EU-28. Not only do US consumers favor European wines, they also have a taste for whiskies, olive oil and dairy products from the region.
Alcoholic Beverages: French and Spanish Wine Impacted Most, Followed by Scottish Single Malt Whiskies
The US accounts for around 18% of French and 12% of Spanish wine exports in value terms. Even if sparkling wines and those with over 14% alcohol content are...
Rabobank: A Global Update on African Swine Fever
While African swine fever continues to devastate pig herds and production in China, the focus is now shifting to other parts of Asia, given recent outbreaks in the Philippines, South Korea, and Timor-Leste, according to the latest African Swine Fever Global Update by RaboResearch.
The spread of ASF in Asia, outside of China, has captured attention
“The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) across Asia are likely to be just as challenging as they have been in China, and we expect to see herd and production losses growing as we move into 2020,” says Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist - Animal Protein. “At the same time, price levels in China – for pigs and pork, as well as for other proteins – keep climbing, and...
Rabobank: Poultry Q4 2019 Outlook
Global poultry markets are expected to see some recovery in the coming months. However, this will be under fragile conditions. Key concerns are the ongoing oversupply situations in many global markets, like the EU, US and South Africa. Actually, only disease-affected China and Mexico, and Brazil (due to the combination of supply reduction and improved export demand), are performing relatively well. Other markets are suffering from oversupply.
Therefore, more disciplined supply should be the key to returning to profitability for the global poultry industry in 2H 2019. Notable positives are the expected ASF-related strength in pork prices, and the limited feed price upside risks, given the relatively good feed grain supply position expected in...
Rabobank: Momentum Is Building in Sustainable Beef
Strong beef demand in China, with imports in 1H 2019 up by more than 50% YOY, and trade uncertainty – including the US-China trade war, Brexit, and new Mercosur access to the EU – are the dominant themes in global beef, according to Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly for Q3 2019.
Senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird: “The supply position in the US remains solid, while supply in Australia and New Zealand is tight, but improving in Brazil. At the same time, beef production globally is coming under increasing scrutiny over its impact on animals and the environment. The past 12 months have seen a marked increase in beef supply chain responses to such scrutiny, and we expect even more in the coming 12 months.”
Rabobank expects this pace of change around sustainability in beef supply chains to increase further. The market will continue to...
Poultry Quarterly Q3 2019: Improved but Fragile Market Conditions
Global poultry has experienced gradually improving market conditions in 1H 2019, and this trend is expected to remain over the coming months.
The main driver for the market improvement has been a more balanced supply in key trading markets like Brazil Thailand, the US and the EU. The gradual improvement has come despite global trade volumes being disappointing due to ongoing trade issues. China is the best performing poultry industry, with exceptionally high poultry prices due to the shift from pork to poultry as a result of the worsening situation with African Swine Fever (ASF) and very low breeding stock levels, which has pushed PS and DOC prices up to historically high levels.
The global poultry market has been on a rollercoaster ride in the past year, with a large oversupply in 2H 2018 and early 2019 greatly affecting prices for globally-traded poultry products...
African Swine Fever Affects China's Pork Consumption
China’s pork consumption has dropped by 10% to 15%, year-to-date, by our estimates, driven by food safety concerns. The level of consumption change varies greatly between the different distribution channels. Looking forward, and reflecting on the current situation and trends, it is quite possible we have seen the ‘peak’ of pork consumption.
Pork Consumption in China has Dropped by 10% to 15%
The losses in China’s pig herd are very difficult to estimate – estimated losses range from 20% to 70%. Data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) has the sow herd down by 22% in the year to April – this is one of the most optimistic estimates we have seen. However, hog and pork prices struggled in April and May, after a brief surge in March, raising significant questions...
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