NRF Says Economy ‘Being Rebalanced’ but ‘Extreme Cooling Off’ Seems Unlikely

The Federal Reserve faces “a tricky job” in addressing inflation but continuing growth in employment, wages and consumer spending make it unlikely the effort will backfire into a major setback for the economy, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“With changes underway that focus on taming inflation without splintering the economy, the nation’s economic system is in the process of being rebalanced in ways that are testing its resilience,” Kleinhenz said. “This is an extraordinary period with unprecedented factors that include inflation at a..."

Boozman Urges Biden Administration to Prioritize U.S. Trade and Agriculture Agenda

U.S. Senator John Boozman (R-AR), ranking member of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; joined Senators John Thune (R-SD), a member of the Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry; and Mike Crapo (R-ID), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, in leading a group of Republican members of the Finance and Agriculture Committees on a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack urging them to prioritize market access initiatives as...

NRF Chief Economist Says Economy Has ‘Strong Momentum’ Despite Challenges From Inflation and Ukraine

Top challenges have shifted from COVID-19 to inflation and the war in Ukraine, but the U.S. economy will continue to face uncertainties in the year ahead, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“While the public health situation has greatly improved, the impact of the pandemic continues to spread,” Kleinhenz said. “That ripple has extended into 2022 and includes a disproportionate impact from inflation reaching a 40-year high brought about by strong consumer demand interacting with restricted supply...”

NRF Chief Economist Says Growth Likely to Continue Even as Fed Works to Slow Inflation

Coming up on two years since the short-lived 2020 recession, the United States appears to be at the midpoint of an economic cycle that should continue to see growth even as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to bring inflation under control, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The maturing economy remains in growth mode and there is good reason to expect it will soon approach normal trends,” Kleinhenz said. “Despite ongoing challenges, we are clearly still in an..."

NRF Chief Economist Says Vaccination is ‘Key to Further Economic Recovery’

The economy is growing quickly but its future still depends on slowing the coronavirus pandemic as consumers worry about new variants of the virus, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today. Meanwhile, a labor shortage and supply chain disruptions are setting the stage for increased inflation.

“We are now in the second half of 2021 and the economy has heated up along with the summer temperatures,” Kleinhenz said. “Gross domestic product surpassed its pre-crisis peak during the second quarter and...

Consumer Confidence Relatively Unchanged in July

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was relatively unchanged in July, following gains in each of the prior five months. The Index now stands at 129.1 (1985=100), up from 128.9 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 159.6 to 160.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—was virtually unchanged at 108.4, compared to 108.5 last month.

Consumer confidence was flat in July but remains at its highest level since February 2020 (132.6),” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting...

ANALYSIS: May’s Turkey Trade Volume Underscores Global Economic Revival

By just about every measure, the latest turkey export figures bring with them signs of encouragement for turkey marketers, as well as...

Consumer Confidence Improved Further in June 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved further in June, following gains in each of the previous four months. The Index now stands at 127.3 (1985=100), up from 120.0 (an upward revision) in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 148.7 to 157.7. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 107.0, up from 100.9 last month.

“Consumer confidence increased in June and is currently at its highest level since the onset of the pandemic’s first surge in March 2020,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions...