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Rabobank: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand
Agricultural commodities were heavily impacted by trade wars, African swine fever, and erratic weather in 2019. According to the RaboResearch report "Outlook 2020: Supply Slide Saves Grounded Demand," many of these factors will remain key for agri commodity prices in 2020.
In 2019, agri commodity markets were impacted by several unprecedented incidents and uncommonly severe conditions. China's hog herd declined significantly, as a result of African swine fever (ASF). This drastically weakened demand for feed and, combined with the US-China trade war, resulted in a significant slowdown in the global soybean trade.
Meanwhile, record US corn- and soybean-planting delays drove corn prices from three-year lows to six-year highs within a few weeks. Then, improved...
Rabobank's Global Protein Outlook for 2020
In 2020, global animal protein faces an uncertain world, but opportunities can still be found. African swine fever dominates the outlook, having generated unprecedented change in 2019 – and we expect more in 2020. Trade disputes and sustainability are other notable challenges in the global animal protein complex. But there are also opportunities in global animal protein, such as recovery from ASF, winning on sustainability, and investing to secure ongoing trade flows.
African swine fever (ASF) overwhelms the outlook for 2020 – as it has done during 2019 – and will pull down overall growth, as well as bring uncertainty to...
China’s Recovery from African Swine Fever: Rebuilding, Relocating, and Restructuring
African swine fever (ASF) has already caused huge herd losses and led to soaring pork prices in China in 2019. We believe the disease will continue to spread in the country in the coming years. However, we expect the pace of herd loss to slow down, due to industry participants’ reactions and policy changes. Restocking will likely take around five years, but hog herd levels may find it difficult to recover to pre-ASF levels.
“In addition to the direct impact on the hog herd, ASF will reshape the development of China’s hog supply chain in the coming years,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at Rabobank. “During the rebuilding process...
National Pork Board Study Defines China’s Growing Need For Protein
A new report from the National Pork Board digs into the growing short- and long-term protein needs facing China and how U.S. pork can position itself to meet that demand. The new report, Pork 2040: China Market Assessment, also reveals the impact that African swine fever (ASF) is having on both China’s short- and long-term protein needs and how the Chinese pork industry and supply chain will change as a result.
The research study was conducted by Gira, a global research firm, using Pork Checkoff dollars and funds from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services Emerging Markets Program (EMP). It outlines critical insights that exporters of U.S. pork can use now to position themselves for long-term success in the...
Pork Quarterly Q4 2019 – Producers Remain Cautious on Expansion as Risks Outweigh Rewards
Global pork prices continue to rise, as protein shortfalls intensify competition for a shrinking supply, according to Rabobank’s Pork Quarterly Q4 2019.
Pork prices have hit record highs in some regions, while trade barriers continue to limit the upside in the US and Canada. prices will continue to increase through Q4 2019 and into 2020, as markets work to balance supply and demand. “Despite rising economic incentives, we expect a limited global production response, as environmental and regulatory constraints, along with the threat of African swine fever (ASF), constrain the industry’s ability to expand,” according to...
Rabobank: A Global Update on African Swine Fever
While African swine fever continues to devastate pig herds and production in China, the focus is now shifting to other parts of Asia, given recent outbreaks in the Philippines, South Korea, and Timor-Leste, according to the latest African Swine Fever Global Update by RaboResearch.
The spread of ASF in Asia, outside of China, has captured attention
“The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) across Asia are likely to be just as challenging as they have been in China, and we expect to see herd and production losses growing as we move into 2020,” says Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist - Animal Protein. “At the same time, price levels in China – for pigs and pork, as well as for other proteins – keep climbing, and...
Mike Hits the (Ara)mark: Reliable Data Sources, Aramark's Innovation, and ASF
This week Laura interviews Mike Banas, Global Cost Forecasting Manager at Aramark. They discuss Aramark's new offerings at sports stadiums, how he selects reliable data, African swine fever, and Laura's favorite - french fries...
Rabobank: Poultry Q4 2019 Outlook
Global poultry markets are expected to see some recovery in the coming months. However, this will be under fragile conditions. Key concerns are the ongoing oversupply situations in many global markets, like the EU, US and South Africa. Actually, only disease-affected China and Mexico, and Brazil (due to the combination of supply reduction and improved export demand), are performing relatively well. Other markets are suffering from oversupply.
Therefore, more disciplined supply should be the key to returning to profitability for the global poultry industry in 2H 2019. Notable positives are the expected ASF-related strength in pork prices, and the limited feed price upside risks, given the relatively good feed grain supply position expected in...
Pork Producers Urge Congress to Ratify USMCA and Support Measures to Prevent Foreign Animal Disease
Congressional ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), allowing the U.S. pork industry to maintain zero-duty market access to two of its largest export markets, remains a top priority for the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). More than 120 pork producers from across the country helped spread this and other messages on Capitol Hill this week during NPPC’s Fall Legislative Action Conference (LAC).
“Last year, Canada and Mexico took over 40 percent of the pork that was exported from the U.S. and they are expected to be a large percentage this year as well,” said NPPC President David Herring, a pork producer from Lillington, N.C. “USMCA will strengthen...
PODCAST: Got Beef? African Swine Fever, Record Beef Margins, and the Global Protein Summit
This week Laura interviews Boxed Beef Reporter Gary Morrison and Pork Reporter Russ Barton. They discuss the Holcomb plant fire and it's affect on boxed beef margins, the latest outbreaks of African Swine Fever, and the topics of Urner Barry's Global Protein Summit in October!
Rabobank: Outside Influences on the Grains & Oilseeds Industry
African Swine Fever Update: Impact on Feed
Chinese pork production in 2019 is expected to decline 25%, with a further 10% drop in 2020. The forecast is for the hog herd to be down by 50% by the end of 2019, before stabilizing somewhat in 2020. Other meat and seafood production and consumption will rise. Pork imports into China are already on the rise, with Spain, Germany, and Canada the key suppliers so far this year. However, we see the potential of non-EU countries gaining higher shares in 2020, as EU production doesn’t seem to be responding strongly enough to meet expected Chinese demand.
Impact on G&O: We are maintaining our projections for China’s feed use and soybean imports from last month. In 2019, the year-on-year drop of China’s hog feed is projected at 35%, with a 5% rebound in 2020. Poultry feed will rise significantly in 2019 and 2020, while aquafeed will only rise by about 5%, with other feed also only growing marginally. Still, total feed in 2019 is seen down...
U.S. Pork Industry Receives USDA Grant to Open ASF Dialogue in Asia
The global outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), a disease affecting only pigs with no human health or food safety risks, is growing, with new cases appearing throughout Southeast Asia and China. While there are no reported cases of ASF in the U.S., a grant recently awarded to the Swine Health Information Center (SHIC), with active support from the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), aims to start a dialogue between the two regions, sharing veterinary knowledge and ways to prevent the disease from further spreading.
The approximately $1.7 million grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Animal Service division will fund the multi-phase project, helping to build strategic partnerships, while increasing trade of U.S. pork to the region. The work will include swine health field projects, including...
Canada, Mexico and U.S. Plan North American Strategy for African Swine Fever Prevention
Today, the Chief Veterinary Officer (CVO) for the United States, Dr. Burke Healey, along with the CVO for Canada, Dr. Jaspinder Komal, and the CVO for Mexico, Dr. Juan Gay Gutierrez, issued the following statement about the 18th North American Animal Health Committee Meeting (NAAHC).
“The NAAHC meets annually to review and plan our countries’ coordinated activities around animal health, which includes our prevention and preparedness efforts for animal health diseases such as avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease.
This year, we dedicated a special session to discussing African swine fever (ASF), the actions we are taking to prevent its spread to North America, and how to...
Smithfield Foods Statement Regarding Shooting at Tar Heel Processing Facility
Packaged Facts: Food E-Commerce Sales will Increase 32% Annually
October Retail Sales Grew 4.2 Percent Over Last Year
American Poultry Farmers Regain Access to China
Rabobank's Global Protein Outlook for 2020
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