NRF Economist Says Growth in Consumer Spending is Slowing

U.S. consumers are still buying more than last year, but spending growth is slowing as the economy settles down amid higher interest rates intended to reduce inflation, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The economy was clearly more resilient in the first half of this year than many expected, and the consumer environment has been positive as inflation has slowed,” Kleinhenz said. “Nonetheless, there are ongoing economic challenges and questions, and the pace of consumer spending growth is becoming incrementally slower.”...

NRF Says GDP Growth is Slower But Consumer Spending Remains Positive

Gross domestic product isn’t likely to grow as much in the final months of 2022 as it did in the third quarter, but consumer spending should remain strong even though its rapid pace is continuing to slow, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“The third quarter’s results clearly dispelled the notion that the U.S. economy is in a recession, and the silver lining was the ongoing resiliency in consumption,” Kleinhenz said. “Nonetheless, the economy is cooling and interest-sensitive sectors, in particular, have seen a significant...”

Thanksgiving Turkeys Will Be More Expensive This Year

On november 21st President Joe Biden performed one of the more peculiar presidential duties. Upon his return from the COP27 climate summit in Egypt, Mr Biden pardoned the two Thanksgiving turkeys in an annual ceremony that has been a tradition since Ronald Reagan’s days in office. The spared specimens are sent to farms or universities, where they are left in peace for the rest of their natural lives.

Such clemency looks generous in a time of sky-high inflation. Food prices have risen sharply...

Record 166.3 Million Shoppers Expected During Thanksgiving Weekend

An estimated 166.3 million people are planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, according to the annual survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This figure is almost 8 million more people than last year and is the highest estimate since NRF began tracking this data in 2017.

“While there is much speculation about inflation’s impact on consumer behavior, our data tells us that this Thanksgiving holiday weekend will see robust store traffic with a record number of shoppers taking advantage of value..."

Farm Bureau: Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Up 20%

Farm Bureau's 37th annual survey reveals the average cost of this year's classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 is $64.05, less than $6.50 per person. This is a $10.74 or 20% increase from last year's average of $53.31.

The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey – costs more than last year, at $28.96 for a 16-pound bird. That's $1.81 per pound, up 21% from last year, due to several factors beyond general inflation. Farm Bureau "volunteer shoppers" checked prices Oct. 18-31, before most grocery store chains... 

NRF Says Strong Consumer Fundamentals Counter Inflation and Interest Rates in Holiday Forecast

The National Retail Federation balanced high inflation and rising interest rates against strong consumer fundamentals as it developed its 2022 holiday spending forecast, Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said today.

“There are many factors impacting our holiday forecast, but business conditions are generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity,” Kleinhenz said. “Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat. The latest figures show the economy..."

NRF Predicts Healthy Holiday Sales as Consumers Navigate Economic Headwinds

Holiday spending is expected to be healthy even with recent inflationary challenges, as the National Retail Federation today forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5% over 2020 and totaled $889.3 billion, shattering previous records. Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% over the past 10 years, with pandemic spending in recent years accounting for considerable gains.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure..."

Get Ready to Pay More for This Year’s Thanksgiving Turkey

The Ekonk Turkey Hill Farm grows about 4,000 pasture-raised turkeys but the co-owner and founder Rick Hermanot says the farm has been squeezed by soaring prices for baby turkeys, feed and fertilizer, the latter essential to the organic approach to raising the birds. (Douglas Hook)

Carving into the most classic of all holiday main courses this year — the Thanksgiving turkey — will first mean shoppers digging a lot deeper into their wallets before they gather around the family dinner table.

And finding just the right size bird for the...

Stop & Shop to Donate 25,000 Thanksgiving Turkeys to Hunger Relief Organizations Across Northeast

Stop & Shop today announced the launch of its annual Turkey Express program, a month-long initiative dedicated to donating holiday meals to hunger relief organizations and families in need ahead of Thanksgiving. Stop & Shop has a longstanding history of giving back to the communities it serves with a focus on fighting hunger, an issue that continues to be prevalent amidst inflation and rising food costs. According to Feeding America®, in 2021 alone, 53 million people turned to food banks and community programs for help...

Global Pork Quarterly Q4 2022: Producers Cautious as Global Uncertainties Rise

Demand uncertainties rise as consumers face mounting pressures. With inflation outpacing wage growth, lower real wages are expected to negatively impact protein consumption in Q4 2022 and 1H 2023.

Value-conscious consumers are already seeking out lower-value cuts, trading down from branded to private label alternatives at retail, and limiting foodservice purchases, adding further weakness to premium product markets. Holiday sales will test the market’s resilience and its ability to absorb premiums. Lower GDP growth expectations in 2023 will limit market needs, slow herd-rebuilding efforts, and impact...

America’s Eating Patterns Adjusted to a Pandemic and Are Now Adapting to Higher Food Costs

Six macro trends currently shaping food and beverage consumption behaviors

Historically, there has been a rhythm to eating patterns in America; somewhat predictable habits formed by daily routines and needs. The early stages of the pandemic disrupted this rhythm, and just as eating patterns were returning to pre-pandemic normalcy, food inflation set them on end again, reports The NPD Group* in its recently released 2022 edition of Eating Patterns in America.

“The rate of change in U.S. consumers’ eating behaviors continues at a dizzying..."

Butterball® Offers New Spin on Daily Support, Inspiration to Stressed Thanksgiving Hosts

America's most loved turkey brand announces return of the Butterball Turkey Talk-Line™, extends 40+ years of Turkey Talk-Line expertise to limited-edition holiday calendars

Today, Butterball released the first-ever Butterball Turkey Talk-Line Comfort Calendar, a limited-edition calendar that provides Thanksgiving hosts 24 days of emotional support, practical tips and a whole lot of comfort. Limited quantities of the Comfort Calendars will be available Oct. 24-26 at ButterballComfortGiveaway.com. The daily tips and recommendations will also be available via Instagram beginning...

Year-Over-Year Retail Sales Growth Continues

Retail sales remained strong on a monthly basis and saw another year-over-year gain in September despite an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and continuing inflation, the National Retail Federation said today.

“September retail sales confirm that even with rising interest rates, persistent inflation, political uncertainty and volatile global markets, consumers are spending for household priorities,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “As we enter the holiday season, shoppers are increasingly seeking deals and discounts to make their dollars stretch, and retailers are already meeting this demand. However, the..." 

NRF Opposes Proposed Independent Contractor Rule

The National Retail Federation today issued the following statement from Senior Vice President of Government Relations David French regarding the new proposed rule from the Department of Labor on independent contractor status.

“The modern workplace is more complex in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Retailers, along with countless other employers, maintain a wide range of business relationships with independent contractors, including billing, facility maintenance, data analysis, delivery, marketing and other critical services...