Rabobank: Food Inflation, Hottest Since 1978, Gives Consumers a Gut Check

Myriad macro forces—the Russia-Ukraine war, severe drought, higher wages and rising costs of farm inputs, transportation and energy—have combined to fuel broad-based inflation throughout the supply chain. Against this challenging backdrop, the consumer remains remarkably resilient.

The 2023 Rabobank BBQ Index, which measures the cost of staple ingredients for a 10-person barbecue, shows that it will cost $97 to host a cookout on Independence Day this year, up from $73 in 2018. Indeed, inflation has been running hot, particularly food prices, which...

Beef Quarterly Q1 2023: China’s Reopening Provides Opportunities for Beef

Retail and farmgate beef prices cracked records in many regions in 2022, driven by elevated consumer demand and tight beef supplies. Brazil also achieved record export volumes and returns in 2022, thanks to growing Chinese demand.

The softening in consumer sentiment and subsequent weaker beef pricing in late 2022 has flowed through into early 2023. While beef supply settings are favorable for beef prices, consumer confidence will continue to be tested and have a bearing on beef returns. China will remain a focal point, as the world watches to see...

Global Animal Protein Outlook 2023: Deciding How to Grow Amid Challenges and Opportunities

Even though global animal protein production is expected to grow modestly in 2023, it will be another year of change for the sector. The industry will face high costs along the full supply chain, swings in consumption, and other areas of uncertainty for producers, such as elevated disease pressure and regulatory and market-driven changes. As a result, margins will be squeezed as buyers push back on higher production costs. But opportunities still exist, although they will be more restricted.

Global summary

Beef Quarterly Q4 2022: As the US Goes, So Goes the World

Beef markets are still performing well, but macroeconomic pressures are building up beneath the surface. Cattle prices are generally favorable, supported by seasonal conditions and consumer demand. But consumer confidence is waning, given the slowing economic backdrop, which may yet cause demand to soften. We see emerging supply-side dynamics that will also influence markets. The central question is whether beef markets are shaped more by demand-side or supply-side pressures as we head into 2023...

Global Pork Quarterly Q4 2022: Producers Cautious as Global Uncertainties Rise

Demand uncertainties rise as consumers face mounting pressures. With inflation outpacing wage growth, lower real wages are expected to negatively impact protein consumption in Q4 2022 and 1H 2023.

Value-conscious consumers are already seeking out lower-value cuts, trading down from branded to private label alternatives at retail, and limiting foodservice purchases, adding further weakness to premium product markets. Holiday sales will test the market’s resilience and its ability to absorb premiums. Lower GDP growth expectations in 2023 will limit market needs, slow herd-rebuilding efforts, and impact...

China Food & Agribusiness Quarterly – Q4 2022

China is facing sharp economic growth slowdown due to macroeconomic and geo-political challenges around the world, the real estate market slowdown, and ongoing Covid-led lockdowns. In Q2 2022, China’s GDP growth recorded only 0.4% YOY, according to the National Statistics Bureau. Rabobank is forecasting China GDP will only grow at 2.8 % for year 2022.

Use of Robots and Artificial Intelligence in Greenhouse Horticulture

Robotics and AI are not panaceas for solving labor shortages or other product-related problems. But in the next decade, robots and crop support software will take over certain tasks in the high-tech greenhouse.

Report summary
Growers will not produce more cheaply because of robotization and digitalization, but mostly differently. Managing larger, more international companies will become easier, management skills will change, and the cooperation with suppliers and customers will become closer. Pests can also be dealt with earlier, more sustainably or more precisely. The quality of the...