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Beef Quarterly Q4 2022: As the US Goes, So Goes the World
Beef markets are still performing well, but macroeconomic pressures are building up beneath the surface. Cattle prices are generally favorable, supported by seasonal conditions and consumer demand. But consumer confidence is waning, given the slowing economic backdrop, which may yet cause demand to soften. We see emerging supply-side dynamics that will also influence markets. The central question is whether beef markets are shaped more by demand-side or supply-side pressures as we head into 2023...
Global Pork Quarterly Q4 2022: Producers Cautious as Global Uncertainties Rise
Demand uncertainties rise as consumers face mounting pressures. With inflation outpacing wage growth, lower real wages are expected to negatively impact protein consumption in Q4 2022 and 1H 2023.
Value-conscious consumers are already seeking out lower-value cuts, trading down from branded to private label alternatives at retail, and limiting foodservice purchases, adding further weakness to premium product markets. Holiday sales will test the market’s resilience and its ability to absorb premiums. Lower GDP growth expectations in 2023 will limit market needs, slow herd-rebuilding efforts, and impact...
China Food & Agribusiness Quarterly – Q4 2022
China is facing sharp economic growth slowdown due to macroeconomic and geo-political challenges around the world, the real estate market slowdown, and ongoing Covid-led lockdowns. In Q2 2022, China’s GDP growth recorded only 0.4% YOY, according to the National Statistics Bureau. Rabobank is forecasting China GDP will only grow at 2.8 % for year 2022.
In August, consumer confidence indicators (CCI) are hitting historic lows, at 91.8. CCI is less likely to improve in the short term, given the current geopolitical turmoil, the ongoing zero-Covid policy in China, and growing fears of...
Use of Robots and Artificial Intelligence in Greenhouse Horticulture
Robotics and AI are not panaceas for solving labor shortages or other product-related problems. But in the next decade, robots and crop support software will take over certain tasks in the high-tech greenhouse.
Report summaryGrowers will not produce more cheaply because of robotization and digitalization, but mostly differently. Managing larger, more international companies will become easier, management skills will change, and the cooperation with suppliers and customers will become closer. Pests can also be dealt with earlier, more sustainably or more precisely. The quality of the...
Foodservice Update Q3 2022: Revisiting Growth Perspectives
The writing is on the wall: economic growth is in jeopardy due to macroeconomic challenges around the world. From severely high natural gas prices in Europe, which affect everything from fertilizer prices to milk powders, to a housing crisis, and continued partial lockdowns in China. Coupled with rising interest rates, softening equity markets, and negative real wage growth, consumer confidence surveys unsurprisingly outline a worsening outlook for demand. It is likely that the US and Europe will both be entering a recession over the next 12 months.
In Europe and the...
China’s Pork Market Starts a New Cycle: A Different Cycle in a Transitional Time
China’s pork market started a new cycle around mid-2022. This cycle will be different from previous ones, as market conditions have changed a lot. We expect to see less price volatility, a shorter length, and more government monitoring. Policies, a new industry structure, sustainability concerns, and consumer trends will continue to influence the market’s development.
This cycle will offer market opportunities to both...
Beef Quarterly Q3 2022: Leaning Into the Trimmings Trade
The global beef market remains strong. Most beef retail prices (in domestic currencies) continued their upward trend in Q2 or remained steady. Although Q2 prices did not rise much above Q1, most are sitting between 5% and 11% higher than Q2 2021.
Meanwhile, evidence of declining consumer confidence in the face of slowing economies and rising inflation is building. In general, beef markets are resilient to changes in economic conditions. However, we see movement within supply channels and price points that tend to favor cheaper...
Global Pork Quarterly Q3 2022: ASF, Inflation, & Policies Challenge Growth While Trade Odds Rise
Global pork trade should pick up in the second half of 2022. A slight easing of feed costs and resilient consumer demand are improving market prospects. Still, challenges to growth remain as African swine fever continues to spread and inflation impacts trade policies.
Feed and energy costs are offering a break, but not quite relief. Feed input prices have softened in some markets but are expected to stay relatively strong for the rest of 2022. This will lessen the pressure on producers to some extent...
Poultry Quarterly Q3 2022: Bullish Outlook With Strong Demand and Big Operational Challenges
The outlook for the global poultry industry for 2H 2022 is bullish, despite significant cost pressures and other operational challenges.
Demand is strong, with most countries open after adopting ‘living with Covid’ strategies. This is pushing up poultry demand, while global pressure on spending power and high food prices are also leading consumers toward the lowest-priced meat protein: poultry.
The biggest challenge for the industry is on the operational side. Feed and energy prices are higher than they have been in many years...
Foodservice Update Q2 2022: Foodservice in Troubled Times - Impact of the War in Ukraine
This is a special edition focusing on the impact that the war in Ukraine may have on the foodservice industry in the immediate and the longer term. Food and energy prices were already rising before the war began, and this conflict has amplified the trend, making clear that high prices will not revert any time soon. Also, foreign brands operating in Russia are exposed to reputational risks, which might have consequences in long term strategies.
Report summaryThe consequences will differ, depending on the market and...
Poultry Quarterly Q2 2022: Strong Market Conditions Continue, Despite Impact of War in Ukraine
Global poultry demand and trade will remain strong this year. The industry, however, will face challenges related to historic high cost inflation and logistic disruptions, which will especially impact low income countries.
Report summaryIn most regions, supply is relatively tight and prices are strong. The war in Ukraine has led to an increase of 20% to 40% in global grain prices, and the poultry industry will be challenged to pass on all of these higher costs to consumers. This will likely be possible in developed...
Beef Quarterly Q1 2022: Strong Demand but Cost Headwinds Prevail
Global beef markets remain tight. Ongoing strong demand and more limited supplies have kept global beef prices high. But cost pressures are flowing into the supply chain.
Over the past two years, retail beef price movements have been phenomenal, driven largely by strong consumer demand and some supply shocks. In many cases, this increase in prices was caused by demand pull. With supply unable to keep up, the increase in demand has created an imbalance in the market and as a result beef prices have lifted...
Rabobank Announces New, Dynamic Structure for FoodBytes! Innovation Platform in 2022
Today Rabobank, a leading global food and agribusiness bank, announced pivotal changes to its FoodBytes! innovation platform to drive greater sustainable innovation, collaboration for speed-to-market, and market responsiveness. Starting this year, FoodBytes!, Rabobank's discovery platform that champions cross-industry collaboration between the most promising startups, corporates and investors, will move beyond its annual pitch competition and expand to a continuous scouting model, with fifteen startups selected to participate in programming every quarter.
Within the new model, FoodBytes! will also be streamlining the platform's sectors - agtech and food...
Poultry Markets Bullish on Demand Recovery and Challenging Supply
Global poultry markets are expected to be strong in 2022, on the back of reopening economies, increasing vaccination levels, and stronger economic conditions. This improving global market context will be a bumpy road, though, with ups and downs following Covid-19 developments. The industry will need to be ready to adjust sales channels in response to government measures. The operational side will also see challenges, as feed and other input costs, like freight and energy, are expected to stay high. The availability and cost of labor has become a big issue...
Protein Markets Contend with More Than Just "Seasonal" Issues Heading Into Q4
ANALYSIS: Shell Egg Prices Crack New Record Highs Amid Strong Demand, Depleted Inventories
This Week in Retail: Seasonal Trends Start to Shift
Urner Barry Releases September Soy & Wheat Report
Urner Barry Releases September Pulse Protein Report