ANALYSIS: Fresh 90s Ranges Drop Into Competition With Imported 90% Items

Friday’s closing report for domestic boneless beef encountered a range of $386-428/cwt, while imported blend cow 90% from Australia and New Zealand ticked upward to $386-390/cwt bringing the two within similar ranges. While the range remained wide for fresh product, the low side signaled a drop that could cause some slight demand shift toward domestic material while both remain in similar ranges.  

In the US, the fall cow run has ramped up as some participants have begun to send more cows...

ANALYSIS: HPAI Turkey Update — Week of October 5, 2025

Outbreak summary

On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, approximately 2.82 million turkeys have been lost to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in 2025. That is up 115% year-over-year (YOY) and down 62% from 2022, when the outbreak began. Of the turkeys impacted this year, 3% have been commercial breeder hens, 1% have been commercial breeder replacement hens, and 96% have been commercial meat birds. Thirteen states have reported unique outbreaks YTD, one fewer than the largest YTD value since the start of the...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Steadies as Retail and Bird Flu Spur Renewed Buying

The cage-free market has held steady this week, though underlying momentum has begun to build following improved retail demand and renewed bird-flu detections that prompted a return of buyer engagement...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Processing Hits New Seasonal Low as Prices Soar to Record Highs

In June and July, the turkey industry had a couple of months of relief from the seasonal all-time low numbers of turkeys being processed since August of last year. However, the headcount processed this August fell 4.1% below last year, once again marking a new seasonal low. This isn’t necessarily surprising considering that four months prior, net poult placements were 3.9% lower year-over-year (YOY). Additionally, just over 55,000 turkeys were lost at the end of August...

ANALYSIS: YTD Retail Ground Chuck Sale Volumes Fall YOY While Dollar Value Ticks Up

So far in 2025, ground chuck sales have reached over $755M with total transactions around 135 M units. Compared to 2024, the sum of total sales is up by $11M (+1.54%). This can in part be explained by rising input costs on the wholesale market. This has pushed retail prices higher now sitting at a record high of $6.63/lb. Year-over-year (YOY) this is an increase of...

The Retail Rundown: Strategic Promotions Boost October Protein Opportunities

October offers a strategic window for retailers to tap into increased consumer demand for protein, thanks to the alignment of seasonal supply, promotional campaigns, and competitive pricing.

National Pork Month, observed this month, coincides with a peak in pork production—averaging about 2.5 billion pounds over the past five years, up nearly 9% from September.

This seasonal surplus enables retailers to run targeted promotions that pair attractive pricing with educational content, driving both consumer engagement and sales...

ANALYSIS: Uruguay’s Beef Exports Down 9.4% MOM in September to 29,369 mt

According to the latest data released by Uruguay’s National Customs Directorate, fresh beef exports dropped 9.4% MOM to 29,369 metric tons (mt) in September. Compared to the same period last year, this is still 14.1% higher.

China continued to play a significant role as the main destination with 45.4% of total shipments in September, or 13,337 mt. This is 9.0% lower than August but reflects a notable 30.2% growth YOY. On a year-to-year basis, beef exports to the Asian country accounted for 116,187 mt so far this year, a 4.9% growth compared to the same period in 2024...

ANALYSIS: Brazil’s Fresh Beef Exports Set a New Record at 314,690 mt in September 2025

According to the latest data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, Brazilian beef exports totaled 314,690 mt in September, reflecting a 17.2% monthly growth and a 25% increase year-over-year (YOY). This figure surpassed the previous record of 276,879 mt achieved two months ago...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s Q3 2025 Beef Exports Soar 16.2% YOY on China-Led Surge

Australia’s beef exports in Q3 2025 surged 16.2% year-on-year (YOY) to 425,016 metric tons (mt), data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (D.A.F.F.) showed.

Exports expanded by 59,176 mt in the third quarter as Australia capitalized on global supply gaps and tariff-driven realignments in key markets.

China led the quarterly growth, with volumes climbing 55.6% or 26,431 mt as buyers turned to Australian beef to replace grain-fed US product following punitive tariffs and delayed import license renewals since April...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Declines Ease, Seasonal Pressures Persist

The rest-of-market Expana Benchmark Price Cage-Free Quote remains under pressure, currently sitting at a daily all-time low of $1.64/dozen. However, following a 23ct decline over the previous week, values are now more closely aligning with open-market trade levels, resulting in more measured drops...

ANALYSIS: Seasonality Resumes in August Following a Turbulent Year for Chicken Cold Storage 

While year-over-year (YOY) fluctuations in cold storage inventories for August varied widely between lines, most categories closely aligned with the average month-over-month (MOM) changes. August was a month which brought a semblance of normalcy with it to a market that, throughout much of the year, had been unseasonably robust.

Pricing for WOGs, especially the middle tiers, fell sharply in July, then continued with a much more gradual decline at the beginning of August before flattening out. This is a...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 Ground Beef Heats Up, Pre-Labor Day Sales Jump 12%

In the week leading up to Labor Day 2025, the retail fresh ground beef market outperformed the same period in 2024 according to Circana data, with total sales climbing 12% year-over-year (YOY). Distribution improved modestly by 3%, reflecting stronger retail penetration, while discounted sales rose only slightly. This signals that the bulk of demand strength was driven by underlying consumer pull rather than promotional activity. 

Course ground blends highlighted this trend. The 70–77% lean...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Edges Higher MOM Amid Supply Constraints

The total volume of turkey in cold storage was still lower year-over-year (YOY) in August, following a trend that has been in place all year. With that said, the figures more closely approached those of last year than they had previously, with a 3.1% month-over-month (MOM) increase in holdings which is quite a bit higher than the 5-year average increase from July to August of 0.7%. However, despite this slight increase, cold storage inventories remained at an all-time low...

ANALYSIS: USDA Report Highlights Continued Declines in Frozen Pork Inventories

The USDA’s August Cold Storage report, released on Friday, reveals that frozen pork stocks have remained near 10-year lows throughout most of 2025, with several months registering inventories 10–20% below the decade-long average. This persistent shortfall reflects a combination of reduced hog slaughter and production volumes, driven in part by recent disease outbreaks, alongside the lingering impact of the Prop 12 implementation in 2024. Seasonal inventory patterns, characterized by spring and...

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Cold Storage Stocks Hit 52-Week Low in August 2025

Boneless beef stocks hit a 52-week low in the latest USDA Cold Storage report, with just 354.7 million pounds (M lbs) in freezers nationwide. This marks a modest month-over-month decline of 2.3 M lbs (-0.7%).

On a year-over-year basis, 2025 cold storage levels have closely mirrored 2024, with both years consistently falling below the 5-year average. The reduced cattle slaughter has led to tighter supplies and lower volumes of beef entering cold storage. Meanwhile, existing inventory is being...

ANALYSIS: US Flank Steaks Remain at Unprecedented Levels for This Time of Year 

Flank steak prices typically decline as summer winds down and grilling season comes to a close, but 2025 has proven to be an exception. In September, weekly prices reached a historic high, surpassing the previous record set in 2023. Since August, values have reached their highest levels for this period in nearly four decades, surpassing all years back to 1985. 

Historically, flank steak prices begin to soften from mid-to-late July into August. However, that seasonal decline hasn't occurred this...

ANALYSIS: September Pork Cutout at Decade Highs Despite Recent Softening

The weekly Expana Pork Carcass Cutout is navigating at 10‑year highs for September, despite some recent softening in daily readings. The cutout is currently 7.9% above this same point in 2024 and 28.4% higher than the 10‑year average...

ANALYSIS: US Egg Market Sinks to 16-Month Lows Despite Fresh Bird Flu Outbreak

The US egg market remains under intense pressure this week, with conventional large slipping below $2.00/dozen for the first time since May 2024. Soft demand at retail, coupled with rising production ahead of the fall holiday stretch, has tipped the balance firmly against sellers...

ANALYSIS: Chinese Authorities Arrive in Brazil for Audit with a Plan to Resume Chicken Exports

Brazil’s poultry industry is navigating a critical juncture, marked by the resumption of exports to the European Union (EU) (in late-September 2025) and an ongoing Chinese audit that could determine the future of poultry trade with its largest chicken importer. Approximately 11% of Brazilian chicken meat exports were destined to China in 2024.

A technical team from China has arrived in Brazil to assess the country’s sanitary and phytosanitary control systems in the wake of the Avian Influenza (AI)...

ANALYSIS: Hatchery Figures Reflect Robust Broiler Production Alongside Shifting Market Dynamics

The year-over-year (YOY) change in the number of broiler-type pullets hatched has varied widely each month. However, when we take a step back and look at the data as a total, we find that year-to-date broiler pullets hatched are above that of last year, even though August’s data shows a 5.3% decrease. The lower YoY number of broiler-type pullets hatched this August is likely more a function of last year’s high hatch, along with an additional working day...

ANALYSIS: Hogs and Pigs Report Reflects Smaller Breeding Herd

According to the USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, the total United States hog and pig inventory as of September 1, 2025, was 74.5 million head. This figure was down 1% from the same period in 2024 but up 1% from the previous quarter. The breeding herd totaled 5.93 million head, reflecting a 2% decline year-over-year and a slight decrease from June. Market hog inventory came in at 68.5 million head, also 1% below last year but 1% higher than the prior quarter.

The report shows a modest...

ANALYSIS: Japan’s Aug 2025 Beef Imports Pull Back 7.9% MOM as Household Spending Sags

Japan’s beef imports in August 2025 fell 7.9% month-on-month (MoM) at 43,221 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from Japan’s Trade Statistics.

Inbound shipments dropped 3,720 mt from the prior month, with weaker volumes noted across all key suppliers such as from Australia, the United States (US), Canada and New Zealand.

Exploring Dynamics in Poultry and Turkey Markets - Agri-Food Americas 2025

Commodity experts showcased in-depth analytical presentations from their respective markets on day two of Agri-Food Americas 2025, held in Chicago, Illinois, from September 23rd to 24th.

Taking center stage in the main ballroom, Russ Whitman, Director of Market Reporting at Expana, captivated the audience with a detailed analysis of the poultry market.

Describing chicken as "the protein that can't do any wrong," Whitman emphasized its competitive edge over beef, thanks to a compelling price advantage. Chicken's popularity continues to surge, with August's retail data...

ANALYSIS: Veal Slaughter Remains Well Below Year Ago Levels

USDA data shows special-fed veal slaughter in the Northeast and North Central regions remains well below prior years, with year-to-date totals through mid-September 2025 at 50,984 head, down 35% from 2024 and over 40% below 2022. Weekly kills have consistently tracked under the 3-year average. According to some market participants, supplies remain short as calf availability continues to be limited, in part due to market competition and elevated young calf values.

Packers have also been operating on reduced schedules, with several noting difficulty securing consistent head...

ANALYSIS: US Lamb Weights Trending Lighter

US lamb liveweights have been trending below year-ago levels in recent weeks, with USDA Federally Inspected weekly slaughter data showing averages 6 to 9 pounds lighter than the same period in 2024. Early September weights came in around 112 to 114 pounds, down from the 121 to 122 pound range seen during this same time last year. While the year-to-date average is holding near 123 pounds, roughly flat with 2024, it masks a consistent seasonal downtrend that began in late June...

ANALYSIS: YTD EU Egg Imports Surge as Market Adjusts to Structural Supply Constraints

The EU egg market has entered 2025 with import volumes continuing their steep upward trajectory, marking a sharp acceleration from 2024. As shown in the latest European Commission data, imports in July reached 20,773 tonnes, more than double the volume recorded during the same period in 2024. The trend has been consistently bullish throughout H1, with year-on-year increases in every month from January to July. The uptick reflects not only immediate supply chain stressors but also a more entrenched shift in the...

ANALYSIS: Argentina’s Beef Exports Rose 11.2% M-O-M in August to 70,854 mt

Argentina’s beef exports increase for the fifth consecutive month, up 11.2% month-over-month (M-O-M) to 70,854 metric tons (mt) in August, according to the latest data released by the National Institute of Statistics and Census. On a year-over-year (Y-O-Y) basis, this represents a slight 1.1% gain compared to the same period in 2024.

China remained by far the main destination for Argentina’s beef, representing 72.2% of total exports in August, reaching 51,177 mt. This is 12.1% higher than July’s figure and accounts for a marginal 0.7% increase Y-O-Y. On a year-to-date basis, China’s share of Argentina’s beef exports now stands at 69.9%, totaling...

ANALYSIS: Rising Demand for Protein Supports Turkey Sales Even as Prices Remain Elevated

It has been suggested that the increasing beef prices could drive up sales of similar items such as turkey and chicken lunchmeat, as well as ground items. However, there’s also been concern that the all-time high prices of turkey breast meat could squash consumer demand. Interestingly, if we look at a comparison of turkey and beef in terms of fresh packaged lunchmeat and ground, we see that they are performing similarly robustly at the retail counter. While it does not appear that turkey is replacing beef in these sectors, the phrase “a rising tide floats all boats” does seem to apply...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand’s Aug 2025 Beef Exports Retreat to 29,805 mt on Low Output

New Zealand’s beef exports in August 2025 fell for the third straight month, coming in at 29,805 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from Stats NZ.

Falling to the lowest level since October 2024, outbound shipments were 19.5% lower, or 7,218 mt compared to July 2025 across all key destinations including the United States (US), China, Japan and Korea, while shipments to Canada increased...

The Retail Rundown: Fall Promotions Highlight Beef Roasts, Pork Ahead of October

Fall retail trends have been unfolding for several weeks, with grocers promoting cooler-weather favorites and leaning into the early wave of seasonal excitement—embraced by some shoppers and resisted by those reluctant to let go of summer.

With the season officially underway as of Monday, beef roasts are seeing stronger promotion, now accounting for 28% of total beef ads compared with 24% two weeks ago. Even so, steaks remain the top feature item, followed by ground beef...

ANALYSIS: China’s August 2025 Beef Imports Rise to 7-Month Highs at 256,726 mt

China’s total beef imports climbed for the third consecutive month, up by just 2.6% month-on-month (M-O-M) to 256,726 metric tons (mt) in August, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

Rising to the highest level since January 2025, in-bound shipments increased by 6,435 mt, driven mainly by gains from key suppliers such as Australia, Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia and Uruguay. Argentina and New Zealand were the exception, partially offsetting the overall increase...

ANALYSIS: China’s Meat Imports Fall to Fresh Lows at 504,608 mt in Aug 2025

China imported 504,608 metric tons (mt) of meat, including variety meats in August 2025, slumping 5.4% (28,634 mt) from a month earlier, according to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

Inbound tonnage dropped to its lowest level since Expana began tracking in January 2020. The decline reflected higher domestic output, persistent inventory pressure, broader macroeconomic headwinds, and ongoing trade tensions.

A wave of meat plant license suspensions linked to disease concerns and renewal lapses amid...

ANALYSIS: The Great Sandwich Debate, Beef or Chicken?

In the ongoing competition between chicken sandwiches and hamburgers at quick-service restaurants (QSRs), wholesale pricing plays a critical role in determining which protein gets the promotional spotlight.

QSR chains typically rely on raw material pricing to decide which item to promote, balancing both cost-efficiency and customer demand. In this analysis, we use the wholesale price of imported frozen 90% lean boneless beef (EBP 3555) from Australia and New Zealand, blended with domestic fresh 50s (EBP 1062) to create a 75% lean burger patty to represent the hamburger. For chicken sandwiches...

ANALYSIS: HPAI Turkey Update - Week of September 14th, 2025

Year-to-date (YTD) losses of turkeys due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have reached approximately 2.25 million birds in 2025. This represents a 71% increase year-over-year (Y-O-Y), but remains 65% below the peak loss levels experienced in 2022, when the outbreak first emerged. Of the turkeys impacted this year, commercial meat birds account for the vast majority (96%), with commercial breeder hens and breeder replacement hens comprising 3% and 1% respectively.

Geographically, the outbreak has affected 12 states to date in 2025—one fewer than the record YTD count but nevertheless reflecting a 33% increase YoY and an 8% decline from 2022 levels. The affected...

ANALYSIS: Tight UK Cattle and Beef Supplies Drives the Market

The UK cattle and beef market has faced tight supplies recently, primarily due to an elevated slaughter rate earlier in 2025. Record-high prices reported in Q2 2025 contributed to a higher-than-usual slaughter rate in the first half of the year. As a result, the number of cattle available for slaughter in the second half of 2025 has become increasingly limited. 

By June 2025, the UK cattle population had fallen to 4.91 million head, representing a 1.4% decrease compared to the previous year. This marks the lowest population recorded by the Department for...

ANALYSIS: US Imports of Mexican Beef Expand as Market Balances Against Brazilian Slowdown

US demand for Mexican beef increased in August, providing an additional channel for product that had faced pricing pressure in the Mexican market during the summer months. Shipments to the US during August averaged about 3,100 mt per week, roughly 10 percent higher than in July. By early September, weekly volumes rose further to around 3,560 mt, placing them 15 to 25 percent above the July average and also above the levels recorded in August. The increase coincided with tighter US slaughter levels and reduced domestic production, which pushed buyers to look more actively toward Mexican suppliers...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Values Continue to Decline Amid Weak Demand

The cage-free market remained under pressure this week as demand along the West Coast—the region that pulls the highest volume of cage-free product—continued to sit at a standstill.

ANALYSIS: US Shell Egg Market Under Pressure as Supplies Outpace Demand

After nearly a month of relative stability, the US shell egg market has come back under pressure, weighed down by moderate demand and mounting inventories. Retail demand is widely described as seasonally average, but “average” at this point on the calendar leaves little to energize the market. Back-to-school business has largely wound down, and lingering summer weather across much of the country is doing little to drive interest in hot breakfast fare. Promotional activity has been minimal, and the few features that...

ANALYSIS: September Sees Jumbo Boneless Breast Meat Prices Slide Amid Ample Supplies

September brought not only a change in seasons and weather patterns but also a pronounced shift in the chicken market...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Industry Braces for Q4 Supply Crunch Due to Egg Set Decline and Disease Losses

Earlier this summer, both buyers and sellers were optimistic that the turkey industry might offer slightly more product in Q4 of this year compared to last year...

ANALYSIS: Australia Drives Korea’s August 2025 Beef Imports to Seven-Month Peak

Korea’s August 2025 beef imports rose for the second consecutive month, reaching 47,475 metric tons (mt), the highest level since January 2025, data from Korea Customs Service showed.

Rising 8.8% month-on-month (MoM), imports increased by 3,841 mt, led by higher volumes from the United States (US) and Australia. Fimer volumes from Canada contributed to the increase, while shipments from New Zealand were broadly stable compared with the prior month, tempering overall growth...

The Retail Rundown: Chicken Promotions Fall Short in “National Month”

Beef and seafood ads were nearly even this week, each accounting for about 25% of featured buying opportunities. Pork and turkey held steady, while eggs gained ground, with the South Central region seeing the most feature activity.

Expana notes that the back-to-school lift in retail shell egg demand has largely passed, with September typically a slower period outside of the early-season bump. 

Despite September being “National Chicken Month,” Expana’s weekly survey found chicken ads down from last week and slightly below late August levels...

ANALYSIS: US Beef Cold Storage Values Dip Below Threshold for Third year in a Row

Beef cold storage, although higher than last year by .98%, is currently still extremely low compared to previous years. Stretching all the way out for ten years 2024 is the only year below the current levels for total frozen beef. Next month historically we see an increase in volumes and continue to do so heading into the winter months, which usually is the time of year that experiences some of the higher cold storage volumes...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 Beef Wholesale Costs Take Bigger Bite Out of Retails’ Dollar

When comparing the Expana Beef Index to the USDA All Fresh Retail Price, the data underscores the growing pressure on retailers as wholesale costs consume a larger share of the consumer dollar. In July, the USDA All Fresh Retail Price was quoted at $8.90/lb, while the Expana Beef Index averaged $3.64/lb. That means wholesale accounted for roughly 41% of the retail price.  

For perspective, during the early stages of the last cattle retention phase in 2014 and similarly in 2005...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Holds Steady, Parity Underscores Oversupply

The cage-free market has shown little movement in recent weeks, holding relatively steady since mid-August with only a 3ct decline over that period. This week, cage-free quotations settled at $2.76/dozen on the West Coast and $2.66/dozen for the rest of the market, with the latter sitting in exact alignment with the conventional Midwest large for a week now.

Ordinarily, the West Coast — as the largest mandated cage-free region — trades at a clear premium to the rest of the country...

ANALYSIS: How Brazil’s Beef Trade Adjusts to US Tariffs So Far

Contrary to expectations that US tariffs on Brazilian goods implemented in early August would sharply curb trade, Brazil’s beef exports posted only a modest contraction last month. According to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, fresh beef shipments totaled 268,563 mt in August, down 2.8% from the record 276,879 mt in July but still 23.5% higher YOY.

As anticipated, exports to the United States halved MOM to 6,500 mt, representing an even steeper YOY decline of 57.4%. Despite the sharp...

ANALYSIS: July Broiler Exports, Seasonal Surge Outpaces the Norm

US broiler exports totaled 556.6 million pounds in July 2025, marking a 7.6% month-over-month (MOM) increase and a 3.2% year-over-year (YOY) gain. The expansion was well above the five-year average for July, which typically reflects a 1% decline from June. While overall volumes tracked stronger than expected, trade flows revealed sharp contrasts between key markets.

Mexico remained the leading destination by volume, bringing in 134 million pounds of US chicken in July. This represented a 1.5% MOM gain, which...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Export Suspension of Cattle Creates Challenges and Opportunities for Stakeholders

Mexican feeder cattle exports to the US have faced interruptions at various points since late 2024, primarily due to sanitary suspensions imposed by US authorities following the detection of screwworm outbreaks in cattle.

Although there was a partial reactivation at certain border crossings early in 2025, trade was again suspended in May. An attempt to resume in July lasted only a few days before a new suspension. From January to August 2025, just over 200,000 head were exported, compared to nearly 940,000 during...

ANALYSIS: Avian Influenza and Aging Infrastructure Tightens UK Chicken Supply

The UK poultry industry continues to face significant challenges stemming from both disease outbreaks and structural issues within the sector.

Avian Influenza remains a major concern, with multiple cases reported across the country in 2025. Following an outbreak in Somerset earlier in August, a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 strain was confirmed at a poultry facility in Devon on August 31, 2025. Government authorities mandated the humane culling of all birds on the affected premises. These recurring outbreaks, which historically intensify during the autumn months, have been disrupting market...

ANALYSIS: US Turkey Exports See Modest July Uptick Amid Global HPAI Disruptions and Trade Shifts

The total volume of turkey exported from the US during the month of July remained well below last year. However, signs of increased trade were noted as month-over-month (MOM) activity rose 12.8% in comparison to a 5-year average increase of 8.7%. The most likely driver of this uptick in movement was a decline in Brazilian participation on the global turkey market.

On May 15th, Brazil confirmed their first commercial case of HPAI. While this case was detected in chickens...

ANALYSIS: High Cattle Prices Drive Dynamics in the Boxed Beef Market

With slaughter rates continuing to be constrained, kills are currently trailing 2024 year-to-date totals by 11.1%, and record high prices are becoming more common, the question arises: what is one of the major drivers in this market?

At the moment, beef production is about 10.3% lower than it was at this time last year. Currently production levels are now below what they were in 2015. Compared to 10 years ago (2015), beef production is down roughly 0.40%, and slaughter numbers are down about 3%...

ANALYSIS: Brazil’s August 2025 Fresh Beef Exports Ease 2.8% From Prior Month’s Record High

The latest data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services showed that fresh beef (frozen and chilled) exports totaled 268,563 metric tons (mt) in August 2025. While this was 2.8% below the record 276,879 mt shipped in July, volumes remained 23.5% higher YOY.

China remained the top destination with 158,054 mt, virtually unchanged from July 2025 (-0.2%) but up 47.9% compared to the same period last year. The country continues to expand its share of total exports, now...

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Imports Remain Steady in August 2025

Over the course of August, 68,847 metric tons (mt) of boneless beef were passed for entry according to the latest Food Safety and Inspection Service monthly figures. This is a decline of just 438 mt month-over-month (-0.63%).

Brazilian shipments continued to decline with just 7,616 mt of product imported in August, a decline of 2,265 mt from July (-22.91%). The climb of Brazilian imports halted in May when 27,586 mt of product entered the US, and have been on a decline since.

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Converges with Conventional Amid Quiet Demand

Cage-free trade was quiet once again this week, with limited engagement across most regions and continued reliance on conventional outlets to absorb excess supply. The cage-free market softened, with both the rest-of-market and California quotations slipping 3cts. This adjustment brought the rest-of-market quote into exact parity for the second time in a month with the conventional Midwest large at $2.66/dozen, underscoring the lack of cage-free demand and the pace at which product continues to move into...

ANALYSIS: EU Lifts Avian Influenza Ban on Brazilian Poultry

Following Brazil’s submission of detailed epidemiological data, the European Commission (EC) stated that the information was sufficient to confirm the country’s disease-free status. As a result, the EC, in coordination with EU Member States, will begin lifting bans and progressively reinstate access for all previously authorized export regions.

Trade data highlights the importance of this decision for both sides. Between January and June 2025, the EU imported 125,300 tons of chicken meat from Brazil, up by 20.8% year-on-year...

ANALYSIS: Pork Cutout Holds Near Decade Highs Despite Mid-Summer Correction

As of the week of September 1, the Expana Pork Carcass Cutout Value remains near 10-year highs, even as a corrective trend has been underway since mid-July. Over that span, weekly cutout values have eased by 4.2%. While this trajectory reflects typical seasonal patterns, the decline has been less pronounced than many market participants anticipated, largely due to limited live hog availability in a disease-affected environment. At present, the weekly cutout stands 18.9% above year-ago levels and...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s Beef Exports Pull Back in August after Setting a Record in July

Australia’s beef exports in August 2025 eased back 9.9% month-on-month (MoM) from July’s record high to 135,570 metric tons (mt), according to data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).

Halting July’s four straight months of growth, August volumes fell 14,865 mt, with the sharpest declines seen to major destinations such as China, Japan, and the United States (US), while shipments to Korea hit fresh record highs ahead of the looming safeguard... 

ANALYSIS: Chicken Production Hits New Seasonal Highs in July Amid Shifting Market

July is typically a time of year in which chicken production is hampered by hot, humid weather, as average live weights fall from a peak in May until cooler weather returns at the end of August. However, this July, ready-to-cook (RTC) production reached a new seasonal peak and the highest figure of the year. In a typical fashion, average live weights fell from May to June but then were maintained throughout July. However, more birds were harvested this July than in any...

ANALYSIS: HPAI's Reemergence and Its Implications for the Turkey Industry as Autumn Approaches 

With the heat of summer gone, HPAI now appears to be back in the picture. Before the end of August, the last case of HPAI in commercial turkeys was in May, and industry participants received a welcome respite from the disease...

ANALYSIS: Pork Picnic Combo Prices Surpass PEDv-Year Highs

Prices for Untrimmed Bone-In SS Picnic Combos have been climbing, currently averaging $1.17/lb, up from February lows near $0.78/lb. At present levels, 2025 prices are approximately 15% higher than 2024 and 9% above 2023, marking some of the strongest values in recent data collection. Prices are also trending above 2014 levels, a year notably impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) which led to significant supply disruptions.

In contrast, the current firmness appears to be...

ANALYSIS: Fresh Turkey Breast Meat Prices Echo 2022 Trends Amid Supply Concerns and HPAI Threats

If they didn’t earlier, retailers are likely starting to feel the pinch when it comes to turkey meat as the spread between the average retail sales price of fresh turkey lunchmeat and the average quotations for wholesale fresh tom breast meat narrows considerably. During the first week of 2025, the price spread averaged $8.67, which was $0.72 higher than the last highest spread of this time in the past five years. Since then, the price spread has fallen 49.8% to the point...

ANALYSIS: Health Focused Consumer Trends Impact Beef Organ Meat Prices Amid Rise of Ancestral Blends

Prices for organ meats have been steadily rising, influenced by both supply and demand dynamics in the beef industry. On the supply side, reduced cattle slaughter limits the availability of organ meats, which are already produced in minimal quantities, contributing a relatively small portion to the total carcass weight.

Demand-side factors also play a significant role. Organ meats have long been favored in export markets and are commonly used in pet food manufacturing. Additionally, certain organ cuts, such as beef...

ANALYSIS: US Egg Production Rebounds, But Demand Struggles to Absorb Rising Supply

US egg production is showing signs of recovery in the wake of this year’s historic bird flu outbreak, which triggered one of the most severe supply disruptions on record. The USDA’s latest Chickens & Eggs report showed the nation’s table-egg layer flock expanded 2.18% this month to 296.8 million layers, marking the highest level since January...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 High Steaks, Premium Cuts Surge to Historic Levels

With summer winding down and grills cooling off, tenderloins and ribeyes are heating up. Both items are trading at 52-week highs, with tenderloins pushing into record territory. This year’s rally for the two primals has begun earlier than in recent years, as tight cattle supplies and record-breaking cash cattle prices in 2025 have encouraged buyers to secure product early for year-end holiday needs...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Knuckle Export Prices Surge

In recent weeks, Mexican knuckle export prices to the United States have risen significantly, mirroring the strong upward trend observed in the US boxed beef market. This increase is primarily driven by the US's reduced slaughter levels compared to the previous year, resulting in tighter product availability and increased demand for imports from Mexico. Mexico has been able to export more beef due to its higher domestic supply, a result of increased Brazilian beef imports...

ANALYSIS: EU Pork Market Sees Price Decreases Throughout August as Bearish Sentiment Persists

Following a bearish price trend during July, the EU pork market remined bearish during August with prices decreasing constantly during the month. The Expana Bench Market Price for EU Pig deadweight grade S EXW EU (BW56) was last assessed at €1.98 /kg on August 26, which reflects a price reduction of €0.05/kg compared to the last assessment in July...

ANALYSIS: Japan’s July 2025 Beef Imports Rise 11.1% MoM to 46,941 mt On Winter Restock

Japan’s beef imports in July 2025 jumped 11.1% month-on-month (MoM) at 46,941 metric tons (mt) as the island nation stepped up replenishment ahead of winter, according to the latest data from Japan’s Trade Statistics.

Inbound shipments rose 4,697 mt from the prior month, with stronger volumes from Australia, the United States (US) and New Zealand. Despite holding the title as world’s third-largest beef importer, imports slumped 4.9% or 2,406 mt from a year ago amid elevated inventory pressure...

ANALYSIS: July Cold Storage Report Highlights Divergent Trends Across the Chicken Complex

Overall cold storage of chicken in July rose 2.8% year-over-year (YOY), narrowing the gap with the 5-year average. Much of the increase was tied to thigh meat, breasts and breast meat, and wings, though each for different reasons. In contrast, whole chickens and leg quarters registered YOY declines despite month-over-month (MOM) gains.

Quotations for thigh meat, bone-in breasts, and front halves trended lower through June and July, while jumbo and medium boneless breasts slipped through June and the...

ANALYSIS: Hot and Dry Summer Threatens European Corn Yields

According to the European Commission, western Europe experienced its warmest June on record this summer. Market participants told Expana that while hot and dry conditions supported wheat harvesting, they significantly threaten European corn yields. FranceAgriMer projects the 2025 French corn crop to be up to 5% lower year-on-year. As of August 18, only 62% of the crop was rated good/excellent, down to the lowest level for this period in three years, compared with 76% last year...

ANALYSIS: Unseasonably Firm Summer Sets Stage for EU Egg Demand in Autumn 

The European egg market is entering September with a distinctly different tone than in years past. Where July and August usually bring softer prices and subdued activity, this summer proved the exception. Prices held firm through the first half of the year, and the seasonal dip many anticipated barely materialized, leaving the market stronger than its historical norm.

Caged shell eggs, for example, have held steady at around 1.96 €/kg for several weeks, roughly 45% higher than the seasonal average of 1.35...

ANALYSIS: Rains and Larger Planted Area in Argentina Could Boost Corn Output in 2025/2026

On August 20, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina’s planted corn area for the 2025/2026 season could rise by 9.6% year-on-year to an estimated 7.8 million hectares.

Market participants attributed the increase to improved soil moisture following abundant rainfall, with sources noting that nearly all planted areas are rated in good/excellent condition. If realized, this would be Argentina’s second-largest corn area on record, after the 8.4 million hectares in 2023/2024...

ANALYSIS: Key Factors Shaping the Mexican Beef Cutout in 2025

During the first half of 2025, the Mexican beef cutout showed a pronounced upward movement, with prices rising at a significantly faster rate compared to previous years and peaking in early June. This escalation can be explained by several factors: ongoing drought conditions led to a reduction in available cattle, while the cost of feeder cattle increased sharply due to tighter supplies. These pressures limited the volume of cattle entering the supply chain for slaughter and processing. 

Facing these challenges, Mexican stakeholders began seeking alternatives...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Remain Tight Amid Efforts to Replenish Freezers

July’s cold storage figures continue to show lower year-over-year (YoY) inventories for all lines, highlighting the limited availability of turkey as very low volumes makes its way to the freezer. Meanwhile, July’s total month-over-month (MoM) increase in turkey in cold storage outpaced the 5-year average by approximately four percentage points, in part demonstrating the effort of many participants in the industry to replenish their frozen inventories.

The comparative MoM changes for whole birds and MST follow that of the overall data...

ANALYSIS: 2025 Sees Surge in Shell Egg Imports

Following one of the most significant supply disruptions in recent history, imported breaking stock has taken on a more visible role in the US egg market over the past year. During the height of HPAI-related flock losses, short supplies collided with strong holiday retail demand, drawing much of the available domestic inventory into higher-value retail and institutional channels. This left notable shortages in the further processor segment and sent domestic breaking stock values to a record $6.43/dozen earlier in the year...

ANALYSIS: July 2025 Boneless Beef Cold Storage Falls MOM While Posting Gains YOY

Boneless beef cold storage stocks stood at 357 M lbs in July, according to the latest USDA cold storage report. This figure represents a decline of 1.7 M lbs from June but an increase of 4.6 M lbs from last July.  

Typically, as the large fourth of July celebration wraps up and the dog days of summer begin to approach, beef cold storage stocks begin to hit a bottom before ramping up into the fall and winter months. However, with beef supply shrinking due to...

The Retail Rundown: Labor Day Protein Promotions at a Glance

Seafood leads Labor Day protein promotions, accounting for 27.1% of total ad volume. Pork follows at 23.2%, with beef and chicken each capturing about 22%. Retail buying opportunities for turkey held steady at 3.5%, while promotional activity for shell eggs remained limited.

Back-to-school demand has provided fair to fairly good retail support for eggs, according to Expana, with shelf prices holding mainly steady across most areas in the past month. Last week, white large Grade A eggs were advertised at $4.49 per dozen discounted, nearly $1...

ANALYSIS: Crop Tour Shows Improved Yields but Disease Issues Raise Concerns 

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, concluding August 21, 2025, painted a nuanced picture of the US corn and soybean crops, with scouts traversing over 2,000 fields across seven Midwest states. Pro Farmer estimated the US corn crop at 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, reflecting concerns over disease pressure and uneven field conditions.

Soybean projections came in at 4.246 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.0 bushels per acre, bolstered by robust pod counts, particularly in states like Illinois and Iowa. Market

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Finds Stability Amid Down-Packing Dynamics 

For the first time since mid-June, our rest-of-market cage-free quote held steady for an entire week at $2.69/dozen. While cage-free demand across the US remains average at best, the ability to down-pack excess cage-free product into conventional channels has provided a temporary floor. 

Cage-free production has expanded significantly in recent years, now totaling roughly 133 million layers, or just under half of the nation’s 288 million total layers. Growth has largely been driven by state-mandated...

ANALYSIS: UK Beef Market Struggles with Tight Cattle Supply, Weak Demand, and Price Sensitivity

Cattle availability remains tight across the UK and Ireland, with slaughter numbers continuing to decline. Defra data shows a 4.9% year-on-year (YOY) reduction in GB prime cattle slaughter during the first half of 2025. Though cattle supplies remain constrained, subdued consumer demand has been the main driver for the bearish UK beef market lately. Market sources continued to highlight price stagnation in some beef cutouts due to weak sales.

The roasting beef prices have been declining in the past few months as it is...

ANALYSIS: Hog Slaughter Slows While Live Hog Market Holds Firm

Through the week ending August 16, weekly hog slaughter totaled approximately 2.42 million head, modestly higher than the prior week but nearly 4% below the same week last year. Year-to-date, slaughter is tracking around 78.4 million head, which is 2% below 2024 levels and also running leaner than the three-year average by a margin of 1.7%. In recent weeks, volumes have trailed historical benchmarks, reflecting the tighter supply environment that has characterized much of the summer. 

The firmness in the live hog market has...

ANALYSIS: Protein Production Outlook for Q3

The USDA is forecasting a mixed outlook for protein production in Q3, with significant declines expected in beef and turkey, while pork and broiler output remain steady or edge higher. Beef production is projected to fall sharply year-over-year (YOY), down 5.4% from 6.78 billion pounds in Q3 2024 to 6.42 billion pounds in Q3 2025. This reflects a tightening cattle supply pipeline, a trend that has persisted throughout much of the year and continues to pressure beef availability.

Turkey output is also forecast to contract, slipping 4.5% YOY to...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand’s July 2025 Beef Exports Dips to 9-Month Lows at 37,023 mt

New Zealand’s beef exports in July 2025 fell to the lowest level since October 2024, coming in at 37,023 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from Stats NZ.

Outbound shipments fell for the second straight month by 13.6% or 5,850 mt compared to June 2025 across all key destinations including the United States, China, Canada, Japan and Korea. Export volumes were mainly capped by lower cattle slaughter and seasonal lows.

On a year-on-year (YOY) basis, volumes slipped 4.1%...

ANALYSIS: USDA Livestock Forecast Points to Lower Pork Production

In the USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook released August 18, 2025, the pork market was adjusted a little lower. USDA now forecasts 2025 production at 27.7 billion pounds, down 0.5% from last year.

For 2026, production is forecast at 28.4 billion pounds, a modest 2.5% increase but still under last month’s estimate. The changes stem from slower hog slaughter and lighter weights, with spring PRRS disease pressures keeping supplies tighter.

Hog prices are forecast by USDA to remain active, averaging about $77/cwt in the third quarter and...

ANALYSIS: Navigating Growth Amid Constraints in 2025 Broiler Hatchery

The USDA broiler hatchery data for early-to-mid 2025, measured year-over-year against 2024’s record-setting output, shows the industry balancing robust demand with clear production constraints.

Broiler-type pullet chick placements are down in several months, including a notable 4.14% YOY decline in June, following unprecedented pullet highs in 2024. That pullback reflects producers operating at or near processing and hatchery capacity, while intentionally moderating placements to avoid oversupply and...

Supply-side constraints are compounded by flock health issues. Regional...

ANALYSIS: China’s July 2025 Beef Imports Jump 15.5% MOM to 250,292 MT

China’s total beef imports climbed for the second consecutive month, up 15.5% month-on-month (MOM) to 250,292 metric tons (mt) in July, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

In-bound shipments increased by 33,591 mt, driven mainly by gains from Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand. Bolivia and Uruguay were the exception, posting declines as it partially offsetting the overall increase.

On a year-on-year (YOY) basis, July’s beef imports...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Sector Navigates Low Production, Vaccine Gains, and HPAI Fears as Fall Approaches

The USDA’s monthly turkey hatch data continues to show YTD egg sets and poult placements at record low values, trending 0.8% and 0.5% below last year, respectively. Still, the number of eggs in incubators for August lends a glimmer of optimism to some buyers as the value inches above last August’s and narrows the gap between this year and the 5-year average. Meanwhile, the USDA’s data still shows July’s poult placements falling lower year-over-year (YOY)...

The Retail Rundown: Retailers See Early Back-to-School Spending Amid Price Concerns

While some students are already back in class, others are squeezing in the last stretch of summer before Labor Day. Either way, grocers are bracing for busy aisles as parents juggle back-to-school supplies and grocery lists. This week’s ads highlight plenty of lunchbox staples, including snacks and deli items. 

The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that two-thirds of shoppers had already begun back-to-school purchases by early July, with more than half starting earlier than last year. Concerns about higher prices linked to tariffs...

ANALYSIS: US Loin Primal Values and Cattle Prices Over the Last Ten Years

Although the loin primal has been experiencing a little more weakness compared to the others for the Choice cutout, values are still at highs that we have never seen before at this time of year ever. The loin primal, which normally experiences a dip in value through the summer has not.

Over the last 3 years, the weekly average price was $3.85/lb and for the week of 08/11/2025 the weekly average was $4.79/lb. For comparison...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Tests as Prices Converge with Conventional

After several weeks of sharp declines, the cage-free market found its footing this week, holding steady for multiple days and marking a sharp reversal in pace. The rest-of-market cage-free quotation sits at $2.69/dozen and, for the first time since its introduction in 2024, has fully converged with the conventional Midwest large quote. The narrowing spread between the two markets has become a defining factor for both cage-free availability and subsequent trade values.

With the spread gone, cage-free suppliers are increasingly diverting product...

ANALYSIS:US Pork Exports Show Resilience Amid Mixed Global Demand in June

US pork exports totaled 527,555 K lbs in June 2025, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) but down 2.3% month-over-month (MOM) from May’s 564,626 K lbs, according to USDA data. Through the first half of 2025, exports reached 3.22 billion lbs, 4% below the same period in 2024.

Mexico remained as the leading growth contributor, importing 226,552 K lbs in June, up 22.4 % YOY and 5.2 % MOM. Ongoing active demand domestically for pork items in Mexico, along with free trade agreement...

ANALYSIS: Tight Supply Drives Lamb Values

The Australian lamb market is in an unsettled phase, with the Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) Heavy Lamb Indicator, a benchmark price for heavy lambs based on national saleyard transactions, reaching a record 1,246 ¢/kg cwt, up 12% over the past month.

Although domestic and export demand is active, the main driver is processor pressure. Barely adequate-to-tight supplies have processors competing to secure lambs, raising prices even into unprofitable territory. Some Australian participants have noted that some plants are running shorter production weeks, and some...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 Cash Cattle Surge, Margins Collapse, and Slaughter Hits Record Lows

August has been a month of records: record-high cash cattle prices, record-low margins, and record-low weekly cattle slaughter. According to the USDA Five Area Direct Cattle Data, Live Steer Price, cash cattle are currently $241.00/cwt, about 25% higher than at this time in 2024. Several factors are driving these historic prices. US cattle inventories are tight, the lowest since 1951 according to the USDA, and outside pressures, such as tariffs on imported beef and a...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Market Weakens as Brazilian Imports Surge

Brazilian beef imports into Mexico have surged significantly in 2025, particularly during June and July, marking a pivotal shift in the market landscape. Year-to-date, Mexico’s purchases from Brazil have increased by more than 300% compared to the same months in 2024, rising from 3,666 metric tons(mt) in June 2024 to 16,170 mt in June 2025, and from 4,907 mt in July 2024 to 15,580 mt in July 2025.

Mexico’s policy of not imposing import tariffs on Brazilian beef has fueled this growth...

ANALYSIS: China’s Meat Imports Edge Up 0.6% MOM to 533,241 mt in July 2025

China imported 533,241 metric tons (mt) of meat, including variety meats in July 2025, rising just 0.9% (3,241 mt) from a month earlier, according to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC).

Despite the low base earlier in the year, the modest July increase also failed to match the usual sharp seasonal gains that follow a softer spring and summer, when importers typically build stocks ahead of winter dishes such as hotpots, soups and stews and other traditional...

The Retail Rundown: Beef Tops Retail Ads as Grocers Prepare for Labor Day

With Labor Day just under three weeks away, grocers are preparing for summer’s last big grilling rush. Most holiday orders have already been locked in, and meat and prepared food departments are expected to see strong traffic as shoppers savor the last days of summer.

Beef has overtaken seafood as the most advertised protein this week, representing 27.0% of retail buying opportunities. Pork is close behind at 26.6%, while seafood has eased to 23.3%. Chicken remains steady at 18%, and turkey ads inched up to 3%...