ANALYSIS: US 2025 Beef Wholesale Costs Take Bigger Bite Out of Retails’ Dollar

When comparing the Expana Beef Index to the USDA All Fresh Retail Price, the data underscores the growing pressure on retailers as wholesale costs consume a larger share of the consumer dollar. In July, the USDA All Fresh Retail Price was quoted at $8.90/lb, while the Expana Beef Index averaged $3.64/lb. That means wholesale accounted for roughly 41% of the retail price.  

For perspective, during the early stages of the last cattle retention phase in 2014 and similarly in 2005...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Holds Steady, Parity Underscores Oversupply

The cage-free market has shown little movement in recent weeks, holding relatively steady since mid-August with only a 3ct decline over that period. This week, cage-free quotations settled at $2.76/dozen on the West Coast and $2.66/dozen for the rest of the market, with the latter sitting in exact alignment with the conventional Midwest large for a week now.

Ordinarily, the West Coast — as the largest mandated cage-free region — trades at a clear premium to the rest of the country...

ANALYSIS: How Brazil’s Beef Trade Adjusts to US Tariffs So Far

Contrary to expectations that US tariffs on Brazilian goods implemented in early August would sharply curb trade, Brazil’s beef exports posted only a modest contraction last month. According to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, fresh beef shipments totaled 268,563 mt in August, down 2.8% from the record 276,879 mt in July but still 23.5% higher YOY.

As anticipated, exports to the United States halved MOM to 6,500 mt, representing an even steeper YOY decline of 57.4%. Despite the sharp...

ANALYSIS: July Broiler Exports, Seasonal Surge Outpaces the Norm

US broiler exports totaled 556.6 million pounds in July 2025, marking a 7.6% month-over-month (MOM) increase and a 3.2% year-over-year (YOY) gain. The expansion was well above the five-year average for July, which typically reflects a 1% decline from June. While overall volumes tracked stronger than expected, trade flows revealed sharp contrasts between key markets.

Mexico remained the leading destination by volume, bringing in 134 million pounds of US chicken in July. This represented a 1.5% MOM gain, which...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Export Suspension of Cattle Creates Challenges and Opportunities for Stakeholders

Mexican feeder cattle exports to the US have faced interruptions at various points since late 2024, primarily due to sanitary suspensions imposed by US authorities following the detection of screwworm outbreaks in cattle.

Although there was a partial reactivation at certain border crossings early in 2025, trade was again suspended in May. An attempt to resume in July lasted only a few days before a new suspension. From January to August 2025, just over 200,000 head were exported, compared to nearly 940,000 during...

ANALYSIS: Avian Influenza and Aging Infrastructure Tightens UK Chicken Supply

The UK poultry industry continues to face significant challenges stemming from both disease outbreaks and structural issues within the sector.

Avian Influenza remains a major concern, with multiple cases reported across the country in 2025. Following an outbreak in Somerset earlier in August, a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 strain was confirmed at a poultry facility in Devon on August 31, 2025. Government authorities mandated the humane culling of all birds on the affected premises. These recurring outbreaks, which historically intensify during the autumn months, have been disrupting market...

ANALYSIS: US Turkey Exports See Modest July Uptick Amid Global HPAI Disruptions and Trade Shifts

The total volume of turkey exported from the US during the month of July remained well below last year. However, signs of increased trade were noted as month-over-month (MOM) activity rose 12.8% in comparison to a 5-year average increase of 8.7%. The most likely driver of this uptick in movement was a decline in Brazilian participation on the global turkey market.

On May 15th, Brazil confirmed their first commercial case of HPAI. While this case was detected in chickens...

ANALYSIS: High Cattle Prices Drive Dynamics in the Boxed Beef Market

With slaughter rates continuing to be constrained, kills are currently trailing 2024 year-to-date totals by 11.1%, and record high prices are becoming more common, the question arises: what is one of the major drivers in this market?

At the moment, beef production is about 10.3% lower than it was at this time last year. Currently production levels are now below what they were in 2015. Compared to 10 years ago (2015), beef production is down roughly 0.40%, and slaughter numbers are down about 3%...

ANALYSIS: Brazil’s August 2025 Fresh Beef Exports Ease 2.8% From Prior Month’s Record High

The latest data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services showed that fresh beef (frozen and chilled) exports totaled 268,563 metric tons (mt) in August 2025. While this was 2.8% below the record 276,879 mt shipped in July, volumes remained 23.5% higher YOY.

China remained the top destination with 158,054 mt, virtually unchanged from July 2025 (-0.2%) but up 47.9% compared to the same period last year. The country continues to expand its share of total exports, now...

ANALYSIS: US Boneless Beef Imports Remain Steady in August 2025

Over the course of August, 68,847 metric tons (mt) of boneless beef were passed for entry according to the latest Food Safety and Inspection Service monthly figures. This is a decline of just 438 mt month-over-month (-0.63%).

Brazilian shipments continued to decline with just 7,616 mt of product imported in August, a decline of 2,265 mt from July (-22.91%). The climb of Brazilian imports halted in May when 27,586 mt of product entered the US, and have been on a decline since.

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Converges with Conventional Amid Quiet Demand

Cage-free trade was quiet once again this week, with limited engagement across most regions and continued reliance on conventional outlets to absorb excess supply. The cage-free market softened, with both the rest-of-market and California quotations slipping 3cts. This adjustment brought the rest-of-market quote into exact parity for the second time in a month with the conventional Midwest large at $2.66/dozen, underscoring the lack of cage-free demand and the pace at which product continues to move into...

ANALYSIS: EU Lifts Avian Influenza Ban on Brazilian Poultry

Following Brazil’s submission of detailed epidemiological data, the European Commission (EC) stated that the information was sufficient to confirm the country’s disease-free status. As a result, the EC, in coordination with EU Member States, will begin lifting bans and progressively reinstate access for all previously authorized export regions.

Trade data highlights the importance of this decision for both sides. Between January and June 2025, the EU imported 125,300 tons of chicken meat from Brazil, up by 20.8% year-on-year...

ANALYSIS: Pork Cutout Holds Near Decade Highs Despite Mid-Summer Correction

As of the week of September 1, the Expana Pork Carcass Cutout Value remains near 10-year highs, even as a corrective trend has been underway since mid-July. Over that span, weekly cutout values have eased by 4.2%. While this trajectory reflects typical seasonal patterns, the decline has been less pronounced than many market participants anticipated, largely due to limited live hog availability in a disease-affected environment. At present, the weekly cutout stands 18.9% above year-ago levels and...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s Beef Exports Pull Back in August after Setting a Record in July

Australia’s beef exports in August 2025 eased back 9.9% month-on-month (MoM) from July’s record high to 135,570 metric tons (mt), according to data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).

Halting July’s four straight months of growth, August volumes fell 14,865 mt, with the sharpest declines seen to major destinations such as China, Japan, and the United States (US), while shipments to Korea hit fresh record highs ahead of the looming safeguard... 

ANALYSIS: Chicken Production Hits New Seasonal Highs in July Amid Shifting Market

July is typically a time of year in which chicken production is hampered by hot, humid weather, as average live weights fall from a peak in May until cooler weather returns at the end of August. However, this July, ready-to-cook (RTC) production reached a new seasonal peak and the highest figure of the year. In a typical fashion, average live weights fell from May to June but then were maintained throughout July. However, more birds were harvested this July than in any...

ANALYSIS: HPAI's Reemergence and Its Implications for the Turkey Industry as Autumn Approaches 

With the heat of summer gone, HPAI now appears to be back in the picture. Before the end of August, the last case of HPAI in commercial turkeys was in May, and industry participants received a welcome respite from the disease...

ANALYSIS: Pork Picnic Combo Prices Surpass PEDv-Year Highs

Prices for Untrimmed Bone-In SS Picnic Combos have been climbing, currently averaging $1.17/lb, up from February lows near $0.78/lb. At present levels, 2025 prices are approximately 15% higher than 2024 and 9% above 2023, marking some of the strongest values in recent data collection. Prices are also trending above 2014 levels, a year notably impacted by the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) which led to significant supply disruptions.

In contrast, the current firmness appears to be...

ANALYSIS: Fresh Turkey Breast Meat Prices Echo 2022 Trends Amid Supply Concerns and HPAI Threats

If they didn’t earlier, retailers are likely starting to feel the pinch when it comes to turkey meat as the spread between the average retail sales price of fresh turkey lunchmeat and the average quotations for wholesale fresh tom breast meat narrows considerably. During the first week of 2025, the price spread averaged $8.67, which was $0.72 higher than the last highest spread of this time in the past five years. Since then, the price spread has fallen 49.8% to the point...

ANALYSIS: Health Focused Consumer Trends Impact Beef Organ Meat Prices Amid Rise of Ancestral Blends

Prices for organ meats have been steadily rising, influenced by both supply and demand dynamics in the beef industry. On the supply side, reduced cattle slaughter limits the availability of organ meats, which are already produced in minimal quantities, contributing a relatively small portion to the total carcass weight.

Demand-side factors also play a significant role. Organ meats have long been favored in export markets and are commonly used in pet food manufacturing. Additionally, certain organ cuts, such as beef...

ANALYSIS: US Egg Production Rebounds, But Demand Struggles to Absorb Rising Supply

US egg production is showing signs of recovery in the wake of this year’s historic bird flu outbreak, which triggered one of the most severe supply disruptions on record. The USDA’s latest Chickens & Eggs report showed the nation’s table-egg layer flock expanded 2.18% this month to 296.8 million layers, marking the highest level since January...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 High Steaks, Premium Cuts Surge to Historic Levels

With summer winding down and grills cooling off, tenderloins and ribeyes are heating up. Both items are trading at 52-week highs, with tenderloins pushing into record territory. This year’s rally for the two primals has begun earlier than in recent years, as tight cattle supplies and record-breaking cash cattle prices in 2025 have encouraged buyers to secure product early for year-end holiday needs...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Knuckle Export Prices Surge

In recent weeks, Mexican knuckle export prices to the United States have risen significantly, mirroring the strong upward trend observed in the US boxed beef market. This increase is primarily driven by the US's reduced slaughter levels compared to the previous year, resulting in tighter product availability and increased demand for imports from Mexico. Mexico has been able to export more beef due to its higher domestic supply, a result of increased Brazilian beef imports...

ANALYSIS: EU Pork Market Sees Price Decreases Throughout August as Bearish Sentiment Persists

Following a bearish price trend during July, the EU pork market remined bearish during August with prices decreasing constantly during the month. The Expana Bench Market Price for EU Pig deadweight grade S EXW EU (BW56) was last assessed at €1.98 /kg on August 26, which reflects a price reduction of €0.05/kg compared to the last assessment in July...

ANALYSIS: Japan’s July 2025 Beef Imports Rise 11.1% MoM to 46,941 mt On Winter Restock

Japan’s beef imports in July 2025 jumped 11.1% month-on-month (MoM) at 46,941 metric tons (mt) as the island nation stepped up replenishment ahead of winter, according to the latest data from Japan’s Trade Statistics.

Inbound shipments rose 4,697 mt from the prior month, with stronger volumes from Australia, the United States (US) and New Zealand. Despite holding the title as world’s third-largest beef importer, imports slumped 4.9% or 2,406 mt from a year ago amid elevated inventory pressure...

ANALYSIS: July Cold Storage Report Highlights Divergent Trends Across the Chicken Complex

Overall cold storage of chicken in July rose 2.8% year-over-year (YOY), narrowing the gap with the 5-year average. Much of the increase was tied to thigh meat, breasts and breast meat, and wings, though each for different reasons. In contrast, whole chickens and leg quarters registered YOY declines despite month-over-month (MOM) gains.

Quotations for thigh meat, bone-in breasts, and front halves trended lower through June and July, while jumbo and medium boneless breasts slipped through June and the...

ANALYSIS: Hot and Dry Summer Threatens European Corn Yields

According to the European Commission, western Europe experienced its warmest June on record this summer. Market participants told Expana that while hot and dry conditions supported wheat harvesting, they significantly threaten European corn yields. FranceAgriMer projects the 2025 French corn crop to be up to 5% lower year-on-year. As of August 18, only 62% of the crop was rated good/excellent, down to the lowest level for this period in three years, compared with 76% last year...

ANALYSIS: Unseasonably Firm Summer Sets Stage for EU Egg Demand in Autumn 

The European egg market is entering September with a distinctly different tone than in years past. Where July and August usually bring softer prices and subdued activity, this summer proved the exception. Prices held firm through the first half of the year, and the seasonal dip many anticipated barely materialized, leaving the market stronger than its historical norm.

Caged shell eggs, for example, have held steady at around 1.96 €/kg for several weeks, roughly 45% higher than the seasonal average of 1.35...

ANALYSIS: Rains and Larger Planted Area in Argentina Could Boost Corn Output in 2025/2026

On August 20, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina’s planted corn area for the 2025/2026 season could rise by 9.6% year-on-year to an estimated 7.8 million hectares.

Market participants attributed the increase to improved soil moisture following abundant rainfall, with sources noting that nearly all planted areas are rated in good/excellent condition. If realized, this would be Argentina’s second-largest corn area on record, after the 8.4 million hectares in 2023/2024...

ANALYSIS: Key Factors Shaping the Mexican Beef Cutout in 2025

During the first half of 2025, the Mexican beef cutout showed a pronounced upward movement, with prices rising at a significantly faster rate compared to previous years and peaking in early June. This escalation can be explained by several factors: ongoing drought conditions led to a reduction in available cattle, while the cost of feeder cattle increased sharply due to tighter supplies. These pressures limited the volume of cattle entering the supply chain for slaughter and processing. 

Facing these challenges, Mexican stakeholders began seeking alternatives...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Inventories Remain Tight Amid Efforts to Replenish Freezers

July’s cold storage figures continue to show lower year-over-year (YoY) inventories for all lines, highlighting the limited availability of turkey as very low volumes makes its way to the freezer. Meanwhile, July’s total month-over-month (MoM) increase in turkey in cold storage outpaced the 5-year average by approximately four percentage points, in part demonstrating the effort of many participants in the industry to replenish their frozen inventories.

The comparative MoM changes for whole birds and MST follow that of the overall data...

ANALYSIS: 2025 Sees Surge in Shell Egg Imports

Following one of the most significant supply disruptions in recent history, imported breaking stock has taken on a more visible role in the US egg market over the past year. During the height of HPAI-related flock losses, short supplies collided with strong holiday retail demand, drawing much of the available domestic inventory into higher-value retail and institutional channels. This left notable shortages in the further processor segment and sent domestic breaking stock values to a record $6.43/dozen earlier in the year...

ANALYSIS: July 2025 Boneless Beef Cold Storage Falls MOM While Posting Gains YOY

Boneless beef cold storage stocks stood at 357 M lbs in July, according to the latest USDA cold storage report. This figure represents a decline of 1.7 M lbs from June but an increase of 4.6 M lbs from last July.  

Typically, as the large fourth of July celebration wraps up and the dog days of summer begin to approach, beef cold storage stocks begin to hit a bottom before ramping up into the fall and winter months. However, with beef supply shrinking due to...

The Retail Rundown: Labor Day Protein Promotions at a Glance

Seafood leads Labor Day protein promotions, accounting for 27.1% of total ad volume. Pork follows at 23.2%, with beef and chicken each capturing about 22%. Retail buying opportunities for turkey held steady at 3.5%, while promotional activity for shell eggs remained limited.

Back-to-school demand has provided fair to fairly good retail support for eggs, according to Expana, with shelf prices holding mainly steady across most areas in the past month. Last week, white large Grade A eggs were advertised at $4.49 per dozen discounted, nearly $1...

ANALYSIS: Crop Tour Shows Improved Yields but Disease Issues Raise Concerns 

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, concluding August 21, 2025, painted a nuanced picture of the US corn and soybean crops, with scouts traversing over 2,000 fields across seven Midwest states. Pro Farmer estimated the US corn crop at 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, reflecting concerns over disease pressure and uneven field conditions.

Soybean projections came in at 4.246 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.0 bushels per acre, bolstered by robust pod counts, particularly in states like Illinois and Iowa. Market

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Finds Stability Amid Down-Packing Dynamics 

For the first time since mid-June, our rest-of-market cage-free quote held steady for an entire week at $2.69/dozen. While cage-free demand across the US remains average at best, the ability to down-pack excess cage-free product into conventional channels has provided a temporary floor. 

Cage-free production has expanded significantly in recent years, now totaling roughly 133 million layers, or just under half of the nation’s 288 million total layers. Growth has largely been driven by state-mandated...

ANALYSIS: UK Beef Market Struggles with Tight Cattle Supply, Weak Demand, and Price Sensitivity

Cattle availability remains tight across the UK and Ireland, with slaughter numbers continuing to decline. Defra data shows a 4.9% year-on-year (YOY) reduction in GB prime cattle slaughter during the first half of 2025. Though cattle supplies remain constrained, subdued consumer demand has been the main driver for the bearish UK beef market lately. Market sources continued to highlight price stagnation in some beef cutouts due to weak sales.

The roasting beef prices have been declining in the past few months as it is...

ANALYSIS: Hog Slaughter Slows While Live Hog Market Holds Firm

Through the week ending August 16, weekly hog slaughter totaled approximately 2.42 million head, modestly higher than the prior week but nearly 4% below the same week last year. Year-to-date, slaughter is tracking around 78.4 million head, which is 2% below 2024 levels and also running leaner than the three-year average by a margin of 1.7%. In recent weeks, volumes have trailed historical benchmarks, reflecting the tighter supply environment that has characterized much of the summer. 

The firmness in the live hog market has...

ANALYSIS: Protein Production Outlook for Q3

The USDA is forecasting a mixed outlook for protein production in Q3, with significant declines expected in beef and turkey, while pork and broiler output remain steady or edge higher. Beef production is projected to fall sharply year-over-year (YOY), down 5.4% from 6.78 billion pounds in Q3 2024 to 6.42 billion pounds in Q3 2025. This reflects a tightening cattle supply pipeline, a trend that has persisted throughout much of the year and continues to pressure beef availability.

Turkey output is also forecast to contract, slipping 4.5% YOY to...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand’s July 2025 Beef Exports Dips to 9-Month Lows at 37,023 mt

New Zealand’s beef exports in July 2025 fell to the lowest level since October 2024, coming in at 37,023 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from Stats NZ.

Outbound shipments fell for the second straight month by 13.6% or 5,850 mt compared to June 2025 across all key destinations including the United States, China, Canada, Japan and Korea. Export volumes were mainly capped by lower cattle slaughter and seasonal lows.

On a year-on-year (YOY) basis, volumes slipped 4.1%...

ANALYSIS: USDA Livestock Forecast Points to Lower Pork Production

In the USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook released August 18, 2025, the pork market was adjusted a little lower. USDA now forecasts 2025 production at 27.7 billion pounds, down 0.5% from last year.

For 2026, production is forecast at 28.4 billion pounds, a modest 2.5% increase but still under last month’s estimate. The changes stem from slower hog slaughter and lighter weights, with spring PRRS disease pressures keeping supplies tighter.

Hog prices are forecast by USDA to remain active, averaging about $77/cwt in the third quarter and...

ANALYSIS: Navigating Growth Amid Constraints in 2025 Broiler Hatchery

The USDA broiler hatchery data for early-to-mid 2025, measured year-over-year against 2024’s record-setting output, shows the industry balancing robust demand with clear production constraints.

Broiler-type pullet chick placements are down in several months, including a notable 4.14% YOY decline in June, following unprecedented pullet highs in 2024. That pullback reflects producers operating at or near processing and hatchery capacity, while intentionally moderating placements to avoid oversupply and...

Supply-side constraints are compounded by flock health issues. Regional...

ANALYSIS: China’s July 2025 Beef Imports Jump 15.5% MOM to 250,292 MT

China’s total beef imports climbed for the second consecutive month, up 15.5% month-on-month (MOM) to 250,292 metric tons (mt) in July, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

In-bound shipments increased by 33,591 mt, driven mainly by gains from Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand. Bolivia and Uruguay were the exception, posting declines as it partially offsetting the overall increase.

On a year-on-year (YOY) basis, July’s beef imports...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Sector Navigates Low Production, Vaccine Gains, and HPAI Fears as Fall Approaches

The USDA’s monthly turkey hatch data continues to show YTD egg sets and poult placements at record low values, trending 0.8% and 0.5% below last year, respectively. Still, the number of eggs in incubators for August lends a glimmer of optimism to some buyers as the value inches above last August’s and narrows the gap between this year and the 5-year average. Meanwhile, the USDA’s data still shows July’s poult placements falling lower year-over-year (YOY)...

The Retail Rundown: Retailers See Early Back-to-School Spending Amid Price Concerns

While some students are already back in class, others are squeezing in the last stretch of summer before Labor Day. Either way, grocers are bracing for busy aisles as parents juggle back-to-school supplies and grocery lists. This week’s ads highlight plenty of lunchbox staples, including snacks and deli items. 

The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that two-thirds of shoppers had already begun back-to-school purchases by early July, with more than half starting earlier than last year. Concerns about higher prices linked to tariffs...

ANALYSIS: US Loin Primal Values and Cattle Prices Over the Last Ten Years

Although the loin primal has been experiencing a little more weakness compared to the others for the Choice cutout, values are still at highs that we have never seen before at this time of year ever. The loin primal, which normally experiences a dip in value through the summer has not.

Over the last 3 years, the weekly average price was $3.85/lb and for the week of 08/11/2025 the weekly average was $4.79/lb. For comparison...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Tests as Prices Converge with Conventional

After several weeks of sharp declines, the cage-free market found its footing this week, holding steady for multiple days and marking a sharp reversal in pace. The rest-of-market cage-free quotation sits at $2.69/dozen and, for the first time since its introduction in 2024, has fully converged with the conventional Midwest large quote. The narrowing spread between the two markets has become a defining factor for both cage-free availability and subsequent trade values.

With the spread gone, cage-free suppliers are increasingly diverting product...

ANALYSIS:US Pork Exports Show Resilience Amid Mixed Global Demand in June

US pork exports totaled 527,555 K lbs in June 2025, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) but down 2.3% month-over-month (MOM) from May’s 564,626 K lbs, according to USDA data. Through the first half of 2025, exports reached 3.22 billion lbs, 4% below the same period in 2024.

Mexico remained as the leading growth contributor, importing 226,552 K lbs in June, up 22.4 % YOY and 5.2 % MOM. Ongoing active demand domestically for pork items in Mexico, along with free trade agreement...

ANALYSIS: Tight Supply Drives Lamb Values

The Australian lamb market is in an unsettled phase, with the Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) Heavy Lamb Indicator, a benchmark price for heavy lambs based on national saleyard transactions, reaching a record 1,246 ¢/kg cwt, up 12% over the past month.

Although domestic and export demand is active, the main driver is processor pressure. Barely adequate-to-tight supplies have processors competing to secure lambs, raising prices even into unprofitable territory. Some Australian participants have noted that some plants are running shorter production weeks, and some...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 Cash Cattle Surge, Margins Collapse, and Slaughter Hits Record Lows

August has been a month of records: record-high cash cattle prices, record-low margins, and record-low weekly cattle slaughter. According to the USDA Five Area Direct Cattle Data, Live Steer Price, cash cattle are currently $241.00/cwt, about 25% higher than at this time in 2024. Several factors are driving these historic prices. US cattle inventories are tight, the lowest since 1951 according to the USDA, and outside pressures, such as tariffs on imported beef and a...

ANALYSIS: Mexican Beef Market Weakens as Brazilian Imports Surge

Brazilian beef imports into Mexico have surged significantly in 2025, particularly during June and July, marking a pivotal shift in the market landscape. Year-to-date, Mexico’s purchases from Brazil have increased by more than 300% compared to the same months in 2024, rising from 3,666 metric tons(mt) in June 2024 to 16,170 mt in June 2025, and from 4,907 mt in July 2024 to 15,580 mt in July 2025.

Mexico’s policy of not imposing import tariffs on Brazilian beef has fueled this growth...

ANALYSIS: China’s Meat Imports Edge Up 0.6% MOM to 533,241 mt in July 2025

China imported 533,241 metric tons (mt) of meat, including variety meats in July 2025, rising just 0.9% (3,241 mt) from a month earlier, according to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC).

Despite the low base earlier in the year, the modest July increase also failed to match the usual sharp seasonal gains that follow a softer spring and summer, when importers typically build stocks ahead of winter dishes such as hotpots, soups and stews and other traditional...

The Retail Rundown: Beef Tops Retail Ads as Grocers Prepare for Labor Day

With Labor Day just under three weeks away, grocers are preparing for summer’s last big grilling rush. Most holiday orders have already been locked in, and meat and prepared food departments are expected to see strong traffic as shoppers savor the last days of summer.

Beef has overtaken seafood as the most advertised protein this week, representing 27.0% of retail buying opportunities. Pork is close behind at 26.6%, while seafood has eased to 23.3%. Chicken remains steady at 18%, and turkey ads inched up to 3%...

ANALYSIS: Australian Beef on Verge of Korea’s Safeguard Trigger, as 1H 2025 Imports Up 4.2% YOY

Korea’s beef safeguard on Australian imports is set to kick in weeks earlier than last year, as firmer buying in the first half of 2025 leaves little quota space before higher tariffs take effect.

Beef is Australia's biggest agricultural export to Korea. As of Aug. 11, Australia had filled 87.3% of its annual Special Agricultural Safeguards (SSG) limit, leaving 24,408 mt before hitting the ceiling, according to Korea Customs Service.

Most market players anticipated the safeguard would be triggered...

ANALYSIS: FSIS July 2025 Boneless Beef Shipments to the US Slow Amid Tariff Uncertainty

During the month of July, 69,285 metric tons (mt) of boneless beef were passed for entry into the US, which is a decline of 12,000 metric tons from June (-14.7%). Overseas purchasing slowed at the beginning of summer as importers worked to understand a changing tariff landscape. In many instances, participants were strategic about dates to be compliant to achieve the lowest tariff possible.

Three major origins, Brazil, New Zealand, and Uruguay all encountered volume declines. Brazil...

ANALYSIS: Production Recovery and Weak Demand Drive Steep Cage-Free Drop

The cage-free market continued its sharp decline this week, falling at a steeper pace than the prior session as buyer engagement along the West Coast remained virtually nonexistent. The rest-of-market cage-free quote dropped 95cts to $3.03/dozen—marking a cumulative loss of over $1.25 in the past two weeks and reflecting a significant growth in supply.

Despite a modest 0.5% week-over-week decline in total cage-free stocks, USDA inventory figures show availability remains elevated...

ANALYSIS: EU Shell Egg Market Holds Firm Amid Seasonal Slowdown and Structural Shifts

The EU egg market is navigating its customary summer slowdown, a period typically marked by a dip in demand from the bakery and food manufacturing sectors. This time of year is often referred to by market participants as the cheapest period to buy eggs. However, in a notable departure from the norm, egg prices remain elevated during the summer, defying expectations.

As a result of the seasonal lull, many processors are either scaling back operations or temporarily shutting down for maintenance. Egg breakers are taking...

ANALYSIS: Brazil Sets New Record with July 2025 Beef Exports

According to the latest data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, Brazil has shipped 276,879 mt of fresh beef (frozen and refrigerated) in July 2025, marking a monthly growth of 15.3% and a 13.3% YOY increase.

China maintained its position as the top destination, absorbing 158,374 mt last month, marking a solid growth of 17.8% MOM and 29.7% YOY. The Asian country has maintained strong momentum since the start of the year, now accounting for 57.2% of Brazil’s total beef exports...

ANALYSIS: June Chicken Cold Storage Edges Higher Amid Shifting Cut-Specific Trends

Chicken cold storage inventories in June climbed 2.5 % year-over-year (YOY) and 1.5 % month-over-month (MOM), keeping closely in line with the five-year average gain of 1.6 % for the month.

Overall, volumes reflect a modest seasonal build, though category-specific shifts suggest evolving demand patterns and production scenarios are taking place. Whole chicken inventories dropped 10.3 % MOM and remain down a steep 33.9 % YOY, marking the nineteenth consecutive month of YOY reductions.

Monthly holdings also trailed below the...

ANALYSIS: Australia’s July 2025 Beef Exports Smash Fresh Record Highs

Australia’s beef exports in July 2025 soared to a fresh record high, hitting 150,435 metric tons (mt), according to data from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (D.A.F.F.). The volume topped the previous peak set in June 2025 by 15,838 mt and marked a fourth straight month of growth.

Increases in exports to major destinations such as the United States (US), China, Canada, Japan, and Korea supported the overall growth, potentially setting the stage for Australia’s annual volumes to hit record highs in 2025...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Cold Storage Hits Record Lows Amid Active Demand and Production Challenges

The total volume of turkey in cold storage continues to set new seasonal lows on a month-by-month basis. The overall frozen inventory was 15.8% below year-ago levels, speaking to the combination of robust demand and limited production that the market currently faces. Yet, even with the lower year-over-year (YOY) values, the change from May to June was almost identical to the 5-year average month-over-month (MOM) change. This was largely driven...

The Retail Rundown: Summer’s Last Stretch Drives Seasonal Promotions

August has arrived, bringing a sense of urgency to make the most of summer’s final weeks. With Labor Day fewer than four weeks away and just seven weeks remaining until the season’s official end, retailers are already diving into back-to-school promotions.

Seafood claims the top spot among protein features again this week, making up 30.3% of all retail ads, followed by beef at 26.2%, pork at 20.8%, and chicken at 18.9%. Egg promotions remain minimal, comprising less than 1% of features—consistent with last week’s light showing. The Midwest led in egg advertising, while the Northeast and South Central regions showed more moderate activity...

ANALYSIS: Japan’s 1H 2025 Beef Imports Tumbles 13.0% YOY as Consumption Cools 

Japan’s beef imports in the first half of 2025 slumped 13.0% from a year ago at 236,712 metric tons (mt), according to the latest data from Japan’s Trade Statistics. 

Inbound shipments by Asia’s second largest beef importer fell by 35,262 mt, with volumes down from key suppliers including Australia, the United States (US), Canada and New Zealand. 

Australia led shipments with 111,440 mt, outpacing the US. Despite a production surge, annual volumes to the island nation declined 11.9%. Its market share stood at 47.1%...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Retreats Amid Weak Buying Interest

The cage-free market saw a steep decline this week as values fell sharply on the heels of evaporating demand along the West Coast. The rest-of-market quotation dropped 33cts to $3.98/dozen—a reversal that reflects the swift erosion of buyer interest and growing inventory pressure nationwide.

After weeks of promotional support, most major chains and independent retailers have now stepped away from active features, with some reportedly raising shelf prices in recent days. Summer heat continues to weigh on consumer behavior, dampening overall egg movement...

ANALYSIS: Tariff Concerns Driving Mexican Beef Cut Exports to the US

Mexican fresh beef cuts exports to the US have navigated fluctuating dynamics throughout 2025, with initial robust volumes giving way to moderated activity amid evolving demand patterns. Early in the year, shipments maintained steady momentum, building on the comparative stability observed in prior years, but faced different challenges as importer strategies shifted in response to market conditions. 

Exports experienced a notable decline from April through June 2025 compared to the volumes recorded in the first quarter of the year, reflecting reduced importer interest amid...

ANALYSIS: Heavier Lambs Offset Lower Slaughter

According to USDA’s weekly data, lamb and mutton production in the US reached 70.3 million pounds year-to-date as of July 25, 2025, which is 3.1% higher than the same point last year. So far this year, 1,099,000 total lambs and sheep have been slaughtered, slightly below the 1,103,000 head processed during the same period in 2024. Even with fewer animals being processed, heavier lamb weights have helped offset the decline. For the week of July 25, the average live weight was 123 pounds...

ANALYSIS: EU Pork Carcass Price Declines During July  

After reaching this year’s price peak at €2.13/kg on July 1st, the index for EU Pig deadweight grade S  EXW EU (BW56) has decreased continuously since then, with the last price assessment being at €2.03/kg on July 29th. However, while the price index decreased throughout the month, the market sentiment of the underlying countries was reported as main divers. While price decreases across the German, Polish and Spanish market drove the EU pork basket lower, the French market held steady during the month, limiting the downward 

ANALYSIS: June Turkey Harvest Breaks Record Low Streak

The turkey slaughter data for June is noteworthy, as it marks the first time since August of last year that a new record seasonal low has not been set. This June's total number of turkeys harvested was 5% above June 2024. Additionally, there was a month-over-month (MOM) increase of 7.4%, compared to a 5-year average MOM decline of 3.8% for this time frame.

This modest increase in production is a welcome shift for both buyers and sellers. Those on the...

ANALYSIS: Broiler Sector Recalibrates with Steady Growth and Demand

The chicken industry is not contracting; it is recalibrating. Broiler-type pullet chick placements for future hatchery supply totaled 9.38 million in June, down 4 percent from the prior year. While that headline suggests a slowdown, the decline follows an all-time high in 2024. Even with this year’s moderation, the current supply flock remains well above the ten-year average. The industry is not pulling back, it is operating near full stride and approaching physical capacity constraints.

June chick hatchings totaled 856 million...

ANALYSIS: Tight Freezer Pork Stocks Highlight Seasonal Strength and Trade Sensitivity

As of June 30, 2025, total pork in cold storage declined to 422.3 million pounds, representing a 6% decrease from May and an 11.1% drop from the same period last year. While this drawdown aligns with typical seasonal patterns, driven by stronger domestic demand and active export movement, especially for high-demand cuts like bellies and ribs, the current inventory level marks a ten-year low. This current position is further compounded by slightly reduced year-to-date slaughter totals, which have limited available product for cold storage...

The Retail Rundown: Retailers Push Protein as July Wraps

As July comes to a close and summer heat intensifies, retailers are pushing protein promotions to attract shoppers and encourage at-home grilling and cooking.

Seafood reclaimed the top spot in protein ad share this week, accounting for nearly 27% of all features. Pork followed at 24%, while beef and chicken trailed close behind at roughly 23% each. Egg promotions dipped slightly to around 1%.

Expana notes that retail egg demand has softened—typical for summer, when hot weather reduces in-home usage. Shelf prices are holding near $3.00 per dozen, well below early-year highs, but lighter consumption has dampened order volumes...

ANALYSIS: New Zealand Beef Exports Fall 5.5% YOY in 1H 2025 as Cattle Turnoff Slows 

New Zealand’s beef exports fell 5.5% year-on-year (YoY) in the first half of 2025, shedding 15,545 metric tons (mt) to 266,770 mt, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. 

The decline was driven by reduced volumes to China and Japan, though gains to the US, Canada and Korea helped cushion the fall. Export growth remained constrained by lower cattle slaughter, as favorable pasture conditions and a strong dairy market continued to limit... 

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Stalls as West Coast Demand Cools

Cage-free wholesale values plateaued this week following a rapid run-up in recent sessions. The rest-of-market quote held steady at $4.31/dozen after climbing 15cts early in the week, while the West Coast quotation ticked down slightly from its most recent peak, settling at $4.65/dozen as regional demand eased.

The slowdown was most pronounced along the West Coast, where promotional activity that had fueled strong retail movement in recent weeks came to an abrupt halt. Several buyers indicated that shoppers may have stocked up...

ANALYSIS: Newcastle Disease in Poland Continues to Restrict Supplies on the Market

Poland’s chief veterinary authorities have confirmed three new outbreaks of Newcastle disease, according to a report submitted to the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) on July 9, 2025. In response, approximately 180,000 birds have been culled to contain the spread of the disease. Control measures implemented at all affected sites include culling and safely disposing of infected birds, thoroughly cleaning and disinfecting facilities, and establishing both infected and at-risk zones.

Since the beginning of the year...

ANALYSIS: Texas Cattle Grading Prime Hits Record High in 2025

According to the USDA’s National Steer and Heifer Estimated Grading Report, Texas has reached a record high, with roughly 9% of steers and heifers grading Prime. Historically, Prime grading follows a seasonal pattern, climbing from January through late spring, early summer, before tapering off during the hotter months and into winter. However, 2025 appears to be deviating slightly from this trend for Texas specifically. Rather than peaking, Texas continues to report incremental gains, now sitting 21% above year-ago levels. This raises the question...

ANALYSIS: USDA Grading Percentages; Select Over the Years

Select-grade cattle increased this week compared to last, although levels remain lower than the previous three years. Historically, Select grading follows a pattern: it starts at a moderate level at the beginning of the year, dips to its lowest point around March or April, then rises steadily through June or July, where it holds at elevated levels until October or November before declining through the end of the year.

In recent weeks, some market participants have reported seeing more Select-graded product on...

ANALYSIS: EU Yolk Prices Hold Firm as Supply Bottlenecks Curb Market Relief

The EU egg and egg products market remains broadly firm, with pricing supported by structural tightness rather than short-term seasonal factors. While July typically brings softer shell egg prices on the back of weaker summer demand, current price levels remain well above historical norms. Only limited easing has been observed, and overall market sentiment continues to reflect caution as supply constraints dominate pricing dynamics.

Tightness is most pronounced in the yolk segment, both liquid and dried, where availability remains constrained...

ANALYSIS: Production in Motion as Beef Pulls Back and Chicken Steps Forward

The July 2025 USDA outlook reveals diverging trajectories across the major protein sectors, with beef production continuing to pull back while broilers and pork fill the supply gap.

Beef output is forecast to decline by nearly 3 percent to 26.188 billion pounds, driven by lower slaughter rates and lighter carcass weights in the back half of the year. This contraction signals a tightening supply environment that has ripple effects across the broader protein complex.

Broiler production is moving in the opposite direction...

ANALYSIS: Turkey Production Lifts Off with Growing Poult Placements and Health Improvements

This year's turkey hatch figures continue to lag behind the 5-year average but still outpace last year on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. Tom and hen poult placements are up year-over-year (YOY) by 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively, while egg sets are up 2.5% from last year.

These figures demonstrate the active push from many in the industry to supply more turkey meat. While a larger number of breeder-type birds were lost to HPAI this year...

ANALYSIS: The Lingering Effects of HPAI on the US Egg Market

Following one of the most impactful HPAI outbreaks in recent history, the US egg market continues to navigate the aftereffects. Although infection rates have slowed, the scale of earlier losses has left a lasting mark on supply availability, pricing, and overall market behavior.

From October 2024 through May 2025, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) resulted in the loss of approximately 60.8 million commercial layers, according to USDA data. As a result, the national layer population fell to roughly 286 million in March and has only...

The Retail Rundown: Beef Edges Out Seafood in Weekly Protein Features

Beef narrowly edged out seafood for the top spot in retail protein promotions this week, making up 25.9% of all featured items. Seafood was a close second at 25.3%, while pork and chicken each accounted for about 23%. Eggs represented roughly 2% of ads, and turkey dipped below 1%.

Beef steaks remained a premium grilling choice, averaging $14.21 per pound last week. Seafood also led on price, with fresh salmon reaching as high as $17.24 per pound in some regions...

ANALYSIS: China’s Meat Imports Pull Back 2.8% YOY to 3.20M mt in 1H 2025

China imported 3,201,497 metric tons (mt) of meat, including variety meats, in the first half of 2025, down 2.84% (93,721 mt) from the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC).

China’s uneven economic recovery kept pressure on consumer spending, with sluggish demand in the dining sector continuing to weigh on import growth. Rising domestic production also contributed to limiting import volumes.

Government efforts to rein in extravagant official spending have cast a shadow over premium dining...

ANALYSIS: China’s 1H 2025 Beef Imports Slumps 9.5% YOY to 1.30M mt

China’s total beef imports shrunk 9.5% to 1,302,197 metric tons (mt) in the first half of the 2025 calendar year, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).

Shipments declined by 136,640 mt, led by lower volumes from most major suppliers. Australia was the exception, partially offsetting the overall drop.

The decline stemmed from a combination of rising domestic production and soft consumer demand amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Trade tensions and a weakened dining sector further...

ANALYSIS: Ham Rally Fueled by Tight Supplies, Strong Exports and Tariff Tensions

From May through mid-July 2025, the bone-in ham market has undergone a sharp and dynamic rally—arguably the most pronounced seasonal move in over a decade. This year’s trajectory not only played a central role in driving the broader 9-week pork cutout rally that began in mid-April, but also set a new seasonal benchmark. Prices kicked off May at $0.85/lb and surged to a high of $1.26/lb by the week of June 23, marking a 47.4% increase in just under... 

ANALYSIS: US Pork Trim Market Holds Firm

In the pork trim market, prices for both 42% and 72% material have moved higher in recent days, reaching 52-week highs. Contributing factors include stronger demand, a roughly 1.9% year-to-date decline in hog slaughter, and a seasonal downtrend in hog weights tied to warmer weather.

As of mid-July 2025, 72% trim was reported at $1.40/lb, while 42% trim reached $1.245/lb. This is a sharp rise compared to late December 2024, when 42% trim was under $0.40/lb and 72%...

ANALYSIS: Cage-Free Market Climbs on Promotional Strength and Supply Strain

Cage-free values surged 38cts this week as aggressive promotional activity along the West Coast drove stronger-than-expected retail movement and pulled product from other regions. The combination of active demand and ongoing supply limitations created a tighter marketplace and spurred strong premiums attached to wholesale values. 

Retail demand has reportedly improved in most regions, but nowhere more than along the West Coast, where several chains have launched new features—some priced around $3.00/dozen. These promotions have resonated with inflation-conscious consumers, resulting in shelf...

ANALYSIS: Australian Beef on the Brink of China’s Safeguard Trigger

China’s imports of Australian beef are inching very close to triggering the 2025 Special Agricultural Safeguard (SSG), fueling fresh concerns across the trade that Most-Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs could be activated within the next two weeks.

There had been renewed optimism after Australia’s latest export figures suggested the trigger might be delayed until mid-August. But market sources now say that is increasingly unlikely, as importers have recently moved to shore up large volumes ahead of the threshold.

Australia’s grain-fed beef has gained traction rapidly in China's...

ANALYSIS: May Sets Another Record Low in Turkey Slaughter as Tight Supplies Persist

May's turkey slaughter figures continue to represent the ongoing trend of tight supplies. For the tenth month in a row, a new seasonal record low has been set with May's figures coming in 11% below last year. The extremely limited availability of turkey meat has pushed quotations for 21 of Expana's lines to all-time highs and has resulted in Expana's turkey index reaching the second largest value on record, trailing only behind 2022.

During the month of May, there were still turkeys...

The Retail Rundown: Summer Travel Drives Foodservice Gains as Retailers Compete for Shoppers

Foodservice is in full swing this summer, fueled by warm weather and vacation season as consumers hit the road and dine out. This Fourth of July, AAA estimated a record 72.2 million Americans traveled domestically—a 2.4% increase from last year and 7 million more than in 2019.

“This year, we're seeing strong demand for road trips, flights, and cruises, especially with the holiday falling on a Friday,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of AAA Travel.

With so much consumer attention on travel and dining out, food...

ANALYSIS: Broiler Production Grows Steadily as Demand Advances

Broiler-type production posted modest growth in May, with 876 million chicks hatched, up 1 percent from the prior year. Eggs in incubators as of June 1 also rose 1 percent to 756 million, indicating stable short-term supply. However, pullet placements for future hatchery flocks declined 0.7 percent year-over-year. While this suggests a cautious outlook by producers, it may also reflect ongoing challenges with hatchability, which has trended historically low in recent months and continues to limit breeder productivity.

Domestic chicken demand remains strong, underpinned

ANALYSIS: Growth of Brazilian Beef Exports to the Mexican Market

The Mexican beef import market showed a notable surge in Brazil's export volumes in June 2025, with levels reaching the highest point since the initiation of the Package Against Inflation and Scarcity (PACIC, acronym in Spanish) in 2022, which eliminates tariffs on beef imports from Brazil. Data reveals a significant uptick, with June 2025 exports reaching 16,170 metric tons, a clear contrast to the 3,666 metric tons recorded in June 2024 and the 76 metric tons in June 2023. This escalation reflects...

ANALYSIS: US Retail Ground Beef Prices the Week Before the Fourth of July Year-Over-Year

With cattle slaughter levels being lower and beef rising in price, for most items at the retail level grinds were no exception. The Fourth of July is a holiday widely known for its grinds demand historically at the retail level. This year, grind prices towered over 2024 levels for discounted and non-discounted values at the retail level. The percentage increase for the total average price for all blends, non-discounted and discounted, was...

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ANALYSIS: Brazil’s Latest Tariff Blitz Set to Redraw US Beef Import Landscape

Washington’s sudden decision on July 9 to impose a 50% tariff hike on Brazilian beef imports, effective August 1, is rattling the world’s largest beef market and potentially disrupting one of its largest supply lines.  

Brazil accounted for nearly 30% of the United States (US) imported frozen boneless beef so far in 2025, making this tariff a seismic shock to American buyers and suppliers.

Brazil already faced a 26.4% out-of-quota tariff after taking a significant role in filling the   65,000 metric tons (mt) “other country” beef...

ANALYSIS: Seasonally Elevated Egg Product Values Begin to Ease 

After reaching all-time highs earlier this year across nearly every category, the egg products market is now showing signs of correction. A combination of seasonal softness and fundamental market shifts is placing downward pressure on values in the liquid, frozen, and dried segments. 

Earlier in the year, prices for whole egg, whites, and yolk surged in response to the supply shock caused by HPAI, which sharply reduced the availability of shell eggs during a time of strong demand from schools, institutions, and commercial bakers...

ANALYSIS: US 2025 Top Butts Set Record Highs

As we move deeper into summer and the last major grilling holiday before Labor Day is behind us, it’s a good time to revisit a 2025 standout: the top sirloin butt.

With constrained supplies heading into grilling season, many retail and foodservice buyers turned to top butts as a more economical alternative to ribeyes and strips. However, reduced cattle slaughter and record-high cash cattle prices pushed boxed beef values higher across the board, even for these “value cuts.”

In late June, the...

ANALYSIS: US Broiler Exports Slide in May as Seasonal Trends Reverse

US broiler exports totaled 509.9 million pounds in May 2025, reflecting a 7.1% decline year-over-year (YOY) and a 7.4% drop month-over-month (MOM). Notably, this monthly contraction stands in contrast to the five-year average MOM increase of 2.4% for May, indicating that this year's performance underdelivered compared to historical seasonal trends.

Mexico led all destinations, with the region absorbing 130.8 million pounds of US chicken in May. MOM movement rose 9.5% which is a stronger-than-typical increase compared...

ANALYSIS: Volatile Market Conditions Shape US Turkey Exports in May

May’s export report showcases a volatile turkey export market. The total values follow a very similar trend as in past months, with a lower year-over-year (YOY) volume and a below-average month-over-month (MOM) change. This is primarily driven by the Mexican market, while the others show quite a bit more variability.

Based on the 5-year average, Mexico generally accounts for 69.2% of the total volume of turkey exported from the US during the month of May. This past May, they accounted...

The Retail Rundown: Retailers Push Value to Maintain Protein Momentum

Retail meat clearance over the Independence Day holiday was generally strong, with consumers stocking up on grilling staples for the summer’s flagship cookout occasion.

With few major buying events remaining this summer, grocers will likely push aggressive features and highlight value finds to sustain shopper engagement through the dog days of summer.

Post-holiday protein advertisements show seafood maintaining the lead at 33.1% of retail features, followed by beef at 25.1% and pork at 21.5%. Chicken accounted for 16.2%, while turkey fell to just 2%—half of the previous week's...