Pork Quarterly Q3 2021: Looking for Growth Amid Uncertainties
Great volatility in Chinese hog and pork prices is rippling through the global market. China’s slaughter rates were unexpectedly high in Q2, pushing pork production up 35.9% YOY in 1H, according to official data. The sudden supply increase resulted in a sharp price decline and negative results in both farming and trading in 1H, pointing to low pork imports into China in Q3. While we expect hog and pork prices to rebound in Q3, the estimated high frozen pork inventory will impose a lot of downward pressure on prices. We expect the slowdown of imports in the coming months will reduce full year imports from 2020’s record levels by 10% to 20%. This will lead to a redistribution of pork trade in the global market and could place downward pressure on pork prices in exporting regions.
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