Coronavirus Hits Chinese Soy Supply Chain, Lowering Consumption and Import Needs
The outbreak of coronavirus (designated as Covid-19 by the WHO) will hit Chinese soy oil and soymeal consumption, primarily in Q1 and early Q2 2020. Barring an extreme escalation of the epidemic, both are expected to register a robust rebound in 2H 2020.
Due to weakened Chinese demand, strong competition from South America, and seasonal trade patterns, China’s import pace of US soybeans will remain slow in the coming months. Lower-than-previously-anticipated procurement of US soybeans, might run the risk of reigniting the trade war during the US election campaign.
This research is based on the information available to date. As the situation remains fluid, Rabobank is closely monitoring the developments and...
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