Rabobank: Outside Influences on the Grains & Oilseeds Industry
African Swine Fever Update: Impact on Feed
Chinese pork production in 2019 is expected to decline 25%, with a further 10% drop in 2020. The forecast is for the hog herd to be down by 50% by the end of 2019, before stabilizing somewhat in 2020. Other meat and seafood production and consumption will rise. Pork imports into China are already on the rise, with Spain, Germany, and Canada the key suppliers so far this year. However, we see the potential of non-EU countries gaining higher shares in 2020, as EU production doesn’t seem to be responding strongly enough to meet expected Chinese demand.
Impact on G&O: We are maintaining our projections for China’s feed use and soybean imports from last month. In 2019, the year-on-year drop of China’s hog feed is projected at 35%, with a 5% rebound in 2020. Poultry feed will rise significantly in 2019 and 2020, while aquafeed will only rise by about 5%, with other feed also only growing marginally. Still, total feed in 2019 is seen down...
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