NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient
The National Retail Federation today [October 15, 2026] released its annual holiday forecast, predicting retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025. That translates to total spending of $1.013 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024 totaling $972 billion.
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy...
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